Transcript for:
Lecture on Qualcomm's Role and Market Position in Generative AI and Semiconductor Industry

It's an airplane mode right now. Just to show that it's running entirely on the device, just doing all the computation. And you can see it created a whole unique image. Qualcomm's tech is inside nearly all our smartphones. It pioneered the ability to connect wirelessly in the 80s all the way to the 5G modems of today, making licensing fees for every device that communicates using its patented core technologies. And now it's working on an entirely new way of using generative AI. Qualcomm is an inventor. They're an intellectual property company. Qualcomm also long held the title of world's biggest fabless chip company by revenue. But with the hype of ChatGPT, Nvidia's revenue has now soared past Qualcomm's making it the new global leader in fabless chip design. And Nvidia's stock shot through the roof too, making it a $1 trillion company. The king has been overthrown. For now, powerful GPUs like Nvidia's are used to train large language models to generate text or images by tapping into a huge amount of data in the cloud. But at Qualcomm, CEO Cristiano Amon is making a big bet that one day generative AI will be in high demand off the cloud, too. Running massive amount of competition in the data center for every word that is generated. I think we have a very unique capability to run those models locally and not only improve performance, but you significantly improve cost. And while its modems are currently inside every iPhone, that's also set to end as soon as next year. Apple is about 20% of Qualcomm's revenue today, so it's a pretty sizable hit. So now Qualcomm is focused on diversification. It has a new partnership with cloud computing providers and just expanded its auto offerings into motorcycles and new in-vehicle generative AI capabilities. We've taken all of these technologies that we've built, and then we apply it not just to mobile phones but to VR headsets, to AR headsets, to computing, to automotive. CNBC went to Qualcomm's headquarters in San Diego to see its latest tech firsthand and asked top executives and analysts what's next for the longtime wireless ruler as Apple develops its own silicon, smartphone chip sales falter and generative AI pushes GPU companies like Nvidia to the front of the pack. In 1985, seven colleagues from a tech start up called Linkabit met in the home of Irwin Jacobs in San Diego, where they thought up the idea for Qualcomm, short for quality communications. Jacobs would remain at the helm for 20 years. Irwin is like a legend. It was his vision that built all of this. In 1989, it made a bold move away from the accepted telecommunications standards at the time, placing the first phone call using Code Division Multiple Access. With CDMA, several transmitters send information simultaneously over a single communication channel. It became the foundation for 3G, 4G and 5G today. It was trying to solve that problem, which is trying to get enough capacity so everybody in the world could have a cell phone. Nobody believed them. Nobody thought CDMA would work. Not only did they make CDMA work, but then they went on and made the rest of mobile work better. For a short time, Qualcomm made its own cell phones, releasing the first commercial CDMA smartphone in 1998. Its first Snapdragon chipset for mobile phones came out in 2007, and it remains the product Qualcomm is best known for today. Snapdragon processors help power and connect phones, PCs, tablets, cars and more. Multiple billions of transistors within that tiny form factor. And that really is the brains of the device. That's where a lot of the digital processing is done. That includes the modem that does the communication with the cellular tower, et cetera. Chris Patrick heads up Qualcomm's smartphone business. He's been with the company for 27 years. At the end, in the heart of the products that you love, that you use every day, it's a very good chance that Qualcomm's at the center of it. And it's not just Qualcomm hardware at the center of our devices. It also makes money from licensing the core technology concepts that shape how we communicate. Today, Qualcomm says it has 140,000 patents. I have a number of patents myself because really that is that was the idea of Qualcomm, is this fusion of long-term R&D, really ideation, thinking about kind of the future and how we could solve problems and then this practical application to real products. One of the things that tends to be misunderstood about Qualcomm is it's not only a chip maker, it's also a company that licenses its intellectual property. And that creates revenue streams from companies like Apple, from other OEMs that the company makes, even if their chipsets aren't being specifically used in a device. And it's probably one of the most controversial parts of the Qualcomm business. In 2017, it faced two major lawsuits, one from the Federal Trade Commission over unfair patent licensing practices due to its monopoly position in wireless chips. In 2020, Qualcomm ultimately prevailed. The other lawsuit came from Apple, which sued Qualcomm for roughly $1 billion for charging royalties for technologies Apple said Qualcomm had nothing to do with. Months later, Qualcomm sued Apple for patent infringement. Two years later, a settlement brought an end to all legal action between the companies. Also in 2017, Qualcomm faced a $117 billion hostile takeover attempt from Singapore-based chip giant Broadcom. The deal was blocked by then-President Donald Trump, citing national security concerns. There was a period of time for four or five years where it was just like one thing after the other. It was just like whack-a-mole. It was insane. And effectively on all the legal stuff, they prevailed on everything. Like it was really amazing. Still, such a big focus on licensing the tech behind the curtain has created a separate issue around public awareness. The fact that people don't know it's Qualcomm often is what is the hindrance. You don't know when you buy that GM or that BMW that it's powered by Qualcomm. You don't know when you buy that Samsung device that it's powered by Qualcomm, which I think is often its friction in terms of investors and why it's valued at often a much lower level than some of its peers like Nvidia, Apple and others that are building silicon. But today, Qualcomm says licensing has become a smaller portion of revenue while its semiconductor business is growing. And those chips get their start here, at a lab in San Diego where we got a behind-the-scenes look. Before we actually start any manufacturing, we put it all together on one what's called emulation platform. So it actually takes three of these. Each of these is massive, 100 pounds, so 300 pounds down to what's ultimately going to be a device that looks like this. Like all fabless chip companies, Qualcomm then sends its carefully crafted designs off to be manufactured at multi-billion dollar chip fabrication plants, also known as fabs or foundries, largely in Asia. TSMC in Taiwan and Samsung in Korea and many others, we're always the number one or number two customers of all of those foundries, given our scale. But mounting tensions with China and between China and Taiwan have raised concerns about how much all major chip designers rely on chip makers in Asia. That's why Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, Intel and others are now building huge advanced fabs in the U.S. - to reshore manufacturing with incentives from the $52 billion CHIPS Act, although some of those plans have already hit delays. Will you make any Qualcomm chips at the new plants coming, the TSMC plant in Arizona for instance? Absolutely. We are already, if I'm not mistaken, we're already committed to around close to half of the capacity it's going to be for Qualcomm products. And we're the largest customer of Samsung's current manufacturing facilities in Austin, Texas. Once Qualcomm gets its chips back from the fab where they're manufactured, it tests them using mock-up devices to mimic the smartphones where they'll eventually end up. To make sure that the final system is going to work exactly as we have intended to write the final software that we then hand off to our customers. When it comes to these core systems-on-a-chip, SoCs, inside smartphones, Qualcomm really only has a couple of competitors. We have MediaTek based out of Taiwan, a very strong competitor. We have the Exynos team within the overall Samsung Corporation. And then more broadly, we think of Apple as our competition. Apple has indeed made its own A-series of processors for its iPhones and iPads since 2010. But inside every iPhone is also a Qualcomm modem. And that's the part that connects to the cellular network. We call it a modem or a baseband, and it's what makes a mobile phone truly mobile. And those are those are very difficult to design. Today, there's really only three companies that make them at scale, and that's Qualcomm, MediaTek and Tsinghua Unisoc in China. When its two year legal battle with Qualcomm came to a close in 2019, Apple bought Intel's 5G modem business in a move to develop its own cellular modem. Apple's made it very clear that they want to get rid of Qualcomm entirely and go to their own modem. Unclear if they can pull that off, when they will be able to do it. It's very different than everything else Apple silicon has built. We have a relationship with Apple for the iPhone that is launching in '23 as well. But we have no plans for that relationship in any direction in '24. We don't have visibility whether we're going to be in the iPhone in '24 or not. Qualcomm has been open with investors that its deal to supply Apple with chips for the iPhone won't last forever. Apple is actually a smaller and smaller portion of our business. Really over the decades, we've diversified very broadly. So even within smartphone, most of our revenue, most of of what we do actually is not Apple, but really is working with our strong partners like Samsung and other outside vendors. There is no doubt that people that are invested in Qualcomm would like to see the company continue to provide technology to Apple. Having said that, this was part of the reason the company became so aggressive in its diversification efforts, was to make sure that it never became overly beholden to any one company, including Apple, which we've seen from this come a very successful entree into automotive. And Apple isn't the only one turning away from Qualcomm silicon. Chinese smartphone maker Huawei currently uses Qualcomm's 4G chips in all its high-end phones. But it'll soon switch to 5G, turning to China-made chips because of export controls on U.S. companies providing advanced tech to China. Meanwhile, smartphones as a whole are facing an industry-wide downturn. Shipments are on track to hit their lowest point in a decade. We had a couple of really good years during the pandemic when everyone was buying new phones and upgrading. And now we've entered the downturn. And so cyclically, there's just less demand. Right, and at some point that will turn around, that will improve. In August, Qualcomm reported weaker than anticipated revenue for Q3, and it's planning another round of layoffs after letting go of 415 people in June. It employs around 51,000 people. The macroeconomics, I think, is not unique to Qualcomm. A lot of companies have been rightsizing their business and we're no different than the rest of our peers. With uncertainty in the smartphone market, Qualcomm has shifted much of its focus to chips for other smart devices. Chief among them, cars. So that's our brightest spot in our Qualcomm differentiation strategy. In a period of, I'd say three to four years, we have significantly increased our presence. We started in automotive a long time ago, but it was a very small business. That's something that's taking time, but these design wins are indicative of a future. They do create more predictability in revenue. And the company is seeing more and more of the world's largest automakers select its technology for at least part of their connected automotive stack. Qualcomm's digital chassis powers cloud-connected video and audio, advanced driver assistance systems and things like face recognition for automatic doors. It's in cars like the new Cadillac Escalade IQ and models from BMW, Mercedes Benz, Stellantis, Hyundai, General Motors, JLR and Sony Honda Mobility. The interior of our cars are starting to look a lot more like our other consumer electronic devices, our phones and our laptops. And then on top of that, the automakers are starting to tie a lot of those all those thousands of discrete chips together into sort of more complex systems to add assisted driving and infotainment and digital cockpit. The problem is the auto market moves very slowly relative to cell phones. Qualcomm is also diversifying into the connectivity of things, like virtual or augmented reality headsets. This is our AR2 Gen1. So this chip is the foundational technology, the center of AR glasses. We're the partner of choice of Meta. We have been working with Microsoft, we've been working with Google and Samsung. So we believe that's going to be an opportunity. It's hard to time it, when everybody is going to buy their glasses, but we know that that's going to be the next computing platform for sure. Well I think their chip sets in AR and VR will become important because Apple will make this product commercial. But I do think once Apple goes mainstream, the demand will flow down. Just like AirPods, there will be a thousand other wearables. And Qualcomm is also trying to break into the competitive world of central processing units for PCs, taking on server giants like Intel and AMD. In 2021, Qualcomm bought CPU startup Nuvia for 1.4 billion. Although Arm sued Qualcomm in 2022, saying it only licensed its architecture to Nuvia, not its new owner. Still, Qualcomm says its Arm-based processors will be in PCs by 2024. I'm kind of tempted to dismiss that as, you know, something that just, it's going to be too hard to crack. But I think with AI and generative AI, if that becomes a feature that consumers really want in their laptops, then Qualcomm actually has a really good solution. And so maybe this is the once in a lifetime opportunity for Qualcomm to break into the PC market. Qualcomm's newest announcements do show a big new focus on enabling devices for generative AI, even when they're in airplane mode. We talk often about this hybrid AI. You're going to run things on the device because sometimes the device has unique things in real time from you, or you can give the cloud a head start. But at the end of the day, I think the power of combining the cloud with the device is very big. With Nvidia's incredible performance since ChatGPT came out in November, the big push toward AI is no surprise, but Amon says it's been in the works far longer. We had the foresight to see that AI will become very significant about ten years ago. So over a decade, we've been developing capabilities for you to be able to run AI as pervasive as everything else you run on your phone. In May, Microsoft announced plans for offline AI models that will run on Qualcomm's Snapdragon processors. And in July, Meta announced its ChatGPT competitor, Llama2, will run on Qualcomm chips on phones and PCs in 2024. The company's biggest opportunity is to figure out what are those AI applications, whether it's tied to augmented reality, whether it's tied to intelligent vehicles, whether it's tied to next generation gaming, whether it's tied to productivity tools and apps. Its ability to put chipsets into these devices that can handle and process those different workloads, and of course being able to monetize that. So far though, large language models have run off server farms filled with Nvidia GPUs that can handle their huge computational and data needs. For now, the business of on-device AI is unproven. Is Qualcomm going to be able to upsell a premium for each one of its licensees and each one of its chipsets for having these advanced AI capabilities? I think that particular answer will be the biggest determinant in just how successful Qualcomm can be in AI. But even with uncertainty around diversifying use cases for Qualcomm's tech, analysts say the company's long-term outlook remains stable. More and more things are going to have chips in them. We're going to connect more and more things to the Internet. It's going to take forever, but it will happen. Cars will be the most visible example of that, but it will be machines and light posts and power tools and coke cans. All those things will eventually get connected and Qualcomm can participate in that growth pretty nicely. The numbers need to catch up in some areas. Longer-term though, it's hard to bet against a company that provides the technology that's in just about every handset and every device that we use every day.