ok while this is being said again let me thank wider for an invitation and also for sponsoring part of this part of the countries that are part of this project I wanted to say a couple of words right now the coordinators of the project or Chico Ferreira Marie Francois and one and and the interesting thing that we are striving to do is to include not just developing countries and middle-income countries but also the big advanced countries so far in addition to the countries that have been presented here I may forget some of course Brazil with sequin others Russia with Lopez Calvin and Aria popova I don't know where she is and also we have Indonesian enough we have and if I haven't forgot someone I apologize and as I was saying the day that I gave my little sort of tour of economic thought in Latin American atomic thought at the inaugural session wider didn't used to focus on much in April maybe when you came Tony you're the one who brought it but i was here in 1985 in a very interesting project coordinated by Lance Taylor and Jerry Hill liner I don't know if it's here which was on civilization or adjustment and we did look at inequality issues but if you look at the working papers over time or books etc a wider until 99 or two or three on on inequality and since then there are about 300 so it's a it's an interesting trend and this is part of this trend now first of all we have been working when I say we mill with Philippe Raimundo Chico Francois working on the inequality in Latin America now for quite some time and some of you may have seen some of the work the one will be sent today is primarily coming out of the 30 articles to or published morning Andrea Corin Drey of course Andrea you're another one who's been doing a lot of work on inequality in Latin America in andreas book published by by wider a paper that we're about to finish and the new project in which because we want to focus on top incomes we have managed to grab the Latin American in the top incomes group facundo Alvarez oh I don't know if he arrived but he's about to arrive so one where we be sending today I'm going to be some part of the results of Mexico and then during window I I thought it was important for him also to be part of the presentation is going to flesh out what happened in the labor market quickly it's interesting that langham er I mean when Joe Stiglitz talks about inequality the world he doesn't want to talk about Latin America because it doesn't fit in storage but Latin America has experienced a decline that has been quite systematic and has happened practically in all the countries and Mexico is one of them and so we're going to focus on Mexico I'm going to go really fast because our time allocation was cut in half this is what happened in Mexico interestingly right after NAFTA is when inequality started to decline we don't know yet how or if it is linked to the process of greater integration with the US but that's I think one area we would like to investigate further but here it shows you an inverted you where inequality was rising from the period of the late 80s to the mid 90s and then it has been falling when you look at labor market inequality seems to be maybe a reversal in the declining trend however when we push the data further which we are doing now it's not clear what we've seen is that it has kind of petered out the client has not continued and so this is the exact e type of decomposition and what you see here is the contribution of late for income this is the first one for each one of those years this is a problem on Mac PC not presented by the way so labor income was decreasing inequality inequality decreasing in the period in 2000 2004 2006 in the last point it was in a quality increasing the off even though we don't have the top incomes we do have income from businesses and brands etc on a small scale those were all inequality increasing transfers were inequality reducing and increasing over time in terms of the effect and the other thing that we spend very important in Mexico is remittances as an equalizing factor so what we have done is that once you start with as you say okay so what's really interesting would be since we know that this even though it's inequality increasing mean is missing what's happening at the top all the things that I showed you do not have data from the top interesting is what happened in the labor markets as a story that explains the decline in inequality we have the same analysis as Murray showed for South Africa in terms of applying the commitment to equity framework for from Mexico and for Mexico we had we did a little bit over time and this here shows how the before after comparison of transfers has been increasing in terms of the decline in inequality you compare this one with this one and big time the decline in poverty right so transfers have been responsible for what we are observing but I think that one of the very interesting stories in Mexico with some surprising results is the labor markets and I'm going to pass it on to prima donna yeah Thank You Nora so so the as not i mentioned inequality has been going down in Mexico with the slow down recently so what we have been in our previous papers is tried to investigate what is the reason of this decline inequality in the last 15 years and well there are three possible hypotheses that we put down there there is an increase in relative supply of skilled workers or rather maybe since institutions via minimum wages or unionization rates or maybe about the quality of the location meaning degraded territory for young workers or skills of so lessons for older workers with college education so we're going to analyze that so this is a typical graph of supply and demand like cats and Murphy and cats and golden it's the it's the relative returns on the left hand side and the relative supply on the right hand side so it's a college over all other workers and what we see is that in the relative supply is is not increasing that much before 1994 and then there is a large increase in relative supply of college-educated workers and what we want to know is this related to wages and how is that set up and we observed the returns decrease at the same time as relatively relative supply increases by a lot so maybe some support or a part of the story of the decline inequality is a large increase in relative supply of college-educated workers we don't when we contrast with institutions for example minimum wage or unionization rates there is no action so after 1994 1996 basically there is no change in the real minimum wage or in unionization rates so institutions like minimum wage or unionization cannot explain changes in the wage structure during this period this is a similar graph to the others and here we have the evolution of the log hourly wage by education group and so what we observe is basically we normalize everything to all the groups and 2008 so we observe that the decline in returns or in absolute wages for the college-educated workers have has been declining since 2007 basically before 2000 after 2008 after the crisis and the group that has lost the most is the college-educated workers so now the next step we have been analyzing is why do college-educated workers show this pattern of declining wages absolute wages so we show we're trying to analyze that and here we have this table and this is a very complicated a table and we are short on time so let me tell you this is a cohort analysis by year of birth and then we observe over time their wages and I just want to say basically three message three messages from here one is that the oldest workers show the largest declines in wages it's from 2002-2014 is like forty percent decline in real wages but young workers start with a lower salary however their wages do not fall over time so they are the only ones among all the college-educated workers that show an increasing pattern in real wages once they start their lair they let their labor lives so basically this is it that the in the final minute nor I will so the to wrap up the message is that labor market was very important the story has been a decline in the wage premium even though educational inequality declined we have paradox of progress so it's an equalizing we can't explain it but we can do it later however you know we started looking at real wages and we discovered that the wage premium not only fell in terms of relative terms but also that wages of people with college fell throughout the period so inequality decline because the top started to lose and then you know we said oh is it the new workers probably lower quality university has been expanding quickly the marginal students of lower quality turns out no it's the older workers that are the ones who are losing out the most so we think there must be a story there our conjecture is that must be a story of a process by which the older workers are being replaced either by technology or by younger workers who are cheaper and know how to use the technology and when you when you started asking people anecdotally it clicks it actually has been happening there is a tier of people college education that have been losing jobs and have to accept what weight lower wages now so that's a very interesting story we want to pursue it further 0 so I only wanted to tell you something a little bit about we don't have the top income so maybe when we add the top incomes our story changes drastically and an example i always give this asset it's a little bit of an extreme example but collecting data from maryland Forbes etc and I calculating or a five percent return which is returned normal times on the wealth that people say they have on average look at the you know what the average monthly income would have to be six hundred thousand for the millionaires billionaires 50 million a month Carlos Slim who's Mexican would be making a hundred million 150 million a month and you know what is it listen to the two richest households in the Mexican house of survey make forty five thousand a month so we don't have and so we have to really get them in so finally for the new project it's a list one it's going to be sponsored by wider like India and South Africa it's going to be alvarado person and wagon and we're going to ink or try to incorporate the income from capital and top incomes I think the labor market dynamics has a story that we need to pursue further to see how it's linked also we changes in demand hopefully education when will the paradox of progress end and a profile of fiscal redistribution thank you