Causation in Logical Reasoning

Introduction

• Understanding causation is crucial for LSAT logical reasoning sections.
• Often set up by curious comparisons or facts.
• Assess the plausibility of the author's explanation or create a chain of causality.

Types of Comparisons

• Small studies vs. Large randomized trials: More news stories on small studies possibly due to sensational takeaways or sheer number.
• Marked crosswalks vs. Unmarked crosswalks: More injuries at marked crosswalks might indicate that initial danger was higher.
• Label readers vs. Non-label readers: Higher fat consumption in non-label readers.
• Old vs. New gas heater: New highly efficient heater still leads to higher gas bills.

Analyzing Comparisons

• Develop the habit of asking “why?” when encountering a curious comparison.
• Possible explanations:
  • More small studies exist than large ones.
  • Marked crosswalks are inherently more dangerous locations.
  • Label-reading might lead to dietary changes.
  • External changes (e.g., new household member) may affect gas usage.

Question Types

• Explain the paradox / Accept questions: Four correct answers explain the paradox; one does not.
  • Evaluate alternate explanations and their plausibility.
• Flaw questions: Identify the flaw in the argument, such as inferring causation from mere correlation.

Causal Flaws

• Overconfidence in one specific storyline when multiple exist.
• Famous flaws: Sampling, necessary vs. sufficient conditions, inappropriate appeals.
• Look for active language indicating causality (e.g., “leads to,” “due to”).

Evaluating Causal Arguments

• Two main analysis points:
  • Alternate explanations for the curious comparison.
  • Assess plausibility of the author’s hypothesis and look for supporting information.
  • Pay attention to the causality chain and related keywords.
  • Strengthen questions: Look for evidence that supports the causality link.
  • Weaken questions: Focus on identifying potential alternative explanations.

Causal Chains and Conditional Logic

• Connect facts and look for causal language to form chains.
• Example causal connections in the media coverage of local politics.
• Most supported questions: Logical connection of provided facts using causal chain analysis.

Recap: Causation and Comparisons

• Be adept at identifying curious comparisons and their interpretations.
  • Consider reverse causality and third factors.
  • Use covariation to present stronger or weaker links to the story.
• Always question the methodologies and sampling in arguments.
• Recognize active verbs indicating causation for clearer inferences.

Conclusion

• Causation in logical reasoning involves understanding multiple potential explanations and assessing the author’s confidence in their conclusion.
• Become comfortable with both analyzing and questioning causal links.