Transcript for:
Investment Strategy and Fund Management

Yeah, I think, Carol, that all the meme stocks from 2021 were dumb businesses. I couldn't understand it at the time why retail traders were getting so wrapped up in AMC. Jimmy and, you know, BlackBerry, I think those were the big three I like. Those are all like walking Dead businesses. So when I got into Opendoor and then I first started tweeting about it last Monday, it's hard to believe it's it feels like a century ago, like 245. Like, I got into it because this is a real business and it's got a real platform that it's built and it's definitely fallen on hard times. That's why the stock's down like 99% or whatever it is from its all time highs. But I just think that the market got overly pessimistic about it. And I've seen this movie before with Carvana. Like, that's one of the one of my, like, you know, greatest heads on my wall, I guess, you know, from the past is that I, I got into Carvana early, not at $3.50, but at $15. And today it's like close to 400. And I just see so many similarities between these two businesses and, and and all. You know, people just get overly present at the moment pessimistic about these companies and everyone's negative now and everyone loves to dance on the grave and say that these companies are circling the drain. Nobody would have believed that you know, at 350 that Carvana was going back to 400 voted leave. Now that you know, it was $0.70 last Monday, now it's whatever it is, three bucks today that this thing is, I think going to 82 bucks. Yeah. Okay. So let's talk about that. It's $2.80 right now, down about 12, 13% as we speak. Just on the day today, you have a price target of $82. That's pretty wild. Make your case to us on why you see it moving that high. Well, I think I'll be even wilder, Tim. I think today it should be trading at 40 bucks. You know, it's it's, you know, like basically that if you look at go back and look at carvana, I use this as as a comparison to Opendoor. Both of these companies, they're trying to e-commerce supply some niche that hasn't been e-commerce defined before for Carvana who was buying and selling used cars for Opendoor is buying and selling homes. It's a huge business, obviously, for in both cases, a national business where just having like one or two or 3% market share nationally, you know, is talking billions and billions of dollars and and and power like because it's all so fragmented today, you know, with the dealers in the car industry and with the agents, you know, in the real estate industry and basically you need a lot of debt to run in the both of these businesses. And so the the problem that both of these businesses came, you know, came upon is that although they were flying high in that, you know, pre-COVID and then you can briefly post COVID era when interest rates were low and Powell started raising rates, suddenly investors got nervous and these stocks crashed. And and the assumption was that they're just going to they're going to go under, they're going to file for bankruptcy. So their prices, if they're going to go bankrupt. And I don't believe that's true. Carvana You know, in fact, I was on a podcast in June of 2022 with Josh Brown and Michael back where I call both, like I said, both the turnaround Carvana did and Opendoor didn't. It was dead wrong. Like it took a lot longer for them to get to the point where they're about to turn profitable, but they are about to turn profitable. So for open door, do you expect to inject and invest more money into it and then take a profit? Or because it sounds like you've done the research, looked at the business, maybe talked to the company, that this is more of a long term buy and hold strategy for you. Which is it? Well, and I've I've been fortunate to be early on a bunch of companies like I was like really early on Alibaba even, you know, back in 2009 time when it was still a private company, it was valued at 10 billion. I thought I was going to go out Carvana you know, some other ones, like what I've learned, Carol, is that, you know, like it's always hard to not avoid the temptation of firing up the terminal or turning on business TV and getting emotional about the macro headlines of the day and get shaken out of these positions. And sometimes when you know these companies are pretty rare, you know, that can truly bag or hundred acts. Right? But like, you know, it's so easy to get shaken out of these positions or like in the case of Carvana, like, I got like I said, I got into it at 15. I would say I got out of it. You know, the bulk of my position in around like probably 131 4150 somewhere in there. And I'm thinking, Oh, I'm so smart. I made ten X my money, put myself on the back here, you know, and I know this company really well. I still was optimistic about Carvana right today. But I thought like, I'm just going to trade it, trade in and out. And, you know, the truth is, you don't make as much money as you do nothing and just let it sit there. So I'm not like jumping into more, Carol, but, you know, because I want to see how the things play out. But I you know, I'm going to try to avoid that temptation and just sit and do nothing. How much can you give us an idea how much you have put into it? And is it all your money? Is it investor money? Well, I run a fine Carol. It's a it's a it's a small fund. I'll be frank with you guys. It's like I had a huge I had a huge billionaire that basically was like a cornerstone investor for. Right. And then 1617, when I started the MJ Capital, and he said, I like the way you think. You know, you look at companies differently. You find these like little hidden jewel companies. How about I give you some money to manage? And I did and did great. Like, it was kind of like a Cathie Wood type ark, like 2017 after, you know, probably February 2021 was amazing. Shot the lights out and then 21 and 22 I got crushed and I didn't diversify my, what do you call it, customer base. You know, and so it's like 99.5% of the capital in the fund was this billionaire. And he took it out and which was is right. And you know, I saw so friendly with him but I was through like less scrambling and trying to figure out what to do. And so kept the lights on, pivoted to building a team to to build air models. You know, but you know, it had been it's been hit and miss the last few years. And then it was only like probably, you know, three months ago that I realized, like, hey, you know, we're doing you know, I keep finding these companies. Why don't we just sort of go all in on that? But let's get the air totally focused on finding these 100 baggers before the fact. So the remaining capital, we have a few million we put in, you know, obviously we didn't put it all into opendoor or anything. We have other positions. It was sort of like five key positions that I have right now. Ion Cipher Mining, BTG Technologies and Etherium. I think those are the kind of. Yeah, but it's not. And, you know, we'll see where we go and, you know, like, all I got is my reputation, guys.