Overview
This lecture introduces the En-ROADS global climate simulator, highlighting its features, use cases, key graphs, and how to experiment with climate policies to understand their impact on global temperature and emissions.
Introduction to En-ROADS Simulator
- En-ROADS is a global climate simulation tool built by Climate Interactive and MIT Sloan.
- It models the impact of policies (like carbon pricing) on energy use, emissions, and temperature from 2000 to 2100.
- The simulator uses data from sources like the IEA, UN, EIA, and IPCC and validates results against established integrated assessment models.
Main Features and Interface
- The main graph shows energy sources and temperature rise over time.
- Sliders at the bottom control variables such as carbon price, energy efficiency, electrification, deforestation, and methane reduction.
- Two modes: a basic mode for general users and an advanced mode for detailed assumptions and settings.
Experimentation and Scenarios
- Users can adjust policies (taxes, subsidies, carbon pricing) for coal, oil, gas, renewables, nuclear, and new technologies.
- Detailed settings allow for specific interventions like stopping new coal infrastructure or setting breakthrough years for new tech.
- The "business-as-usual" scenario projects a temperature rise to about 4.1°C by 2100 due to ongoing emissions growth.
Key Graphs and Analysis Tools
- The Kaya graphs break down emissions drivers: population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and carbon intensity.
- Users can view greenhouse gas emissions by source and see the effects of policies on various gases (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, F-gases).
- Advanced features include detailed settings for carbon removal methods and assumptions, and the ability to share scenarios.
Best Practices for Using En-ROADS
- Users should predict outcomes before moving sliders and analyze both expected and unexpected results.
- Reviewing changes and replaying scenarios helps deepen understanding of climate dynamics and policy impacts.
Key Terms & Definitions
- System Dynamics Model — a mathematical model that simulates interactions of complex systems over time.
- Kaya Identity — formula breaking CO2 emissions into population, affluence (GDP/person), energy intensity, and carbon intensity.
- Carbon Intensity — amount of CO2 emitted per unit of energy consumed.
- Negative Emissions — processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere, such as direct air capture or biochar.
- Business-as-Usual Scenario — projection without additional climate interventions.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Explore En-ROADS at climateinteractive.org.
- Run experimental scenarios and record predictions vs. outcomes.
- Review the user guide or reference manual for deeper understanding.