Hey everybody, it's Brian Shannon from Alphatrends.net. Today is Friday the 27th of June 2025. We have one market day left in the first half of the year and it's been a hell of a volatile year so far. This week we really pushed nicely higher and the Nasdaq up 4%, Semi's up 7% and oil, most surprisingly if you remember where we were Sunday night, was down 12%. So let's take a look at these charts, make some sense of it.
We'll start with oil because, again, on oil, you know, Sunday night, this was Sunday night. We gapped up because the bombs were dropping in Iran and the market sold off right away from there. I was pointing out on the shorter term time frame, even Sunday night, that we were below the anchored volume weighted average price from that event. So from that gap up, the sellers came in immediately and they maintained control throughout the entire week. Now, when we look to the daily time frame, of oil let's back it up a little bit here and watch to go to the weekly time frame because this red anchored volume weighted average prices of the all-time high in oil and that had been prior support for several years then resistance back to support this was looking like a bear trap a as we got back above it but now we're back down through it I don't know what to make a oil I'm glad I'm not a commodity trader cuz this market is nuts on the positive side you could look at and say, We're holding the anchor from the year to date low right here.
That's this day, the purple anchor. So we're holding above that. But I don't know how people make sense of oil.
You know, and I don't trade it. Let's take a look at Bitcoin while I've got TradingView open. Bitcoin continues to consolidate here above the anchor off the all-time high. That's that red line here on the one-hour chart on the right. In fact, let's make this so we can see a little bit more detail and look at the four-hour chart.
So there's the all-time high. There's the high prior to that. And then we've got the anchors off these lows. Any pullbacks down into this zone are probably going to be met with buying, and we're likely headed to new all-time highs real soon in Bitcoin. I've increased my position in Bitcoin.
I've also increased my position in Ethereum. I think this looks like just like what we saw was potentially developing in a while, but I think this looks like a failed breakdown. And now we're just consolidating underneath this anchor.
And getting back above 2,500 or so, 2,550, and staying above there for more than a day or so, I think that this market is likely to be able to push quickly towards 3,000. Solana is still a little bit, you know, I bought some of that this week. I got a little bit antsy, I suppose, because truthfully, I shouldn't have purchased it while we're still below the anchor off of the April 7th low. Anyways, it has survived this little pullback. So, uh, if it gets back below this level right here in Solana, I'm using this as my stop level.
But I am nearly fully invested in crypto and I've got a strong equity position as well. Now, the thing about equities, you know, the S&P 500 is we broke to an all time high after a huge uninterrupted run. And we are getting good news about, you know, trade deals and that sort of thing, supposedly. and you know when the market is extended and it breaks out it doesn't mean you rush in to start buying it means hey you know the people who are buying the breakout here are clearly late to the b to the real rally here i was late i you know i didn't get really confident in buying till about 550 and i missed a big chunk of upside i missed you know a lot of it in there um in terms of the indices but you know it doesn't mean you know i avoided the downside so you have to look and say where are you in terms of the S&P 500 is up 4.27% year to date.
If that's your benchmark, then if you're up 5%, you're doing better than the market. If you're doing better than the market, you're doing better than 90% of the so-called smart money, the institutional managers out there. So be realistic about what you expect from the markets.
Now, there's been some incredible moves, so hopefully you're doing a lot better than that. And that's where the retail traders have an advantage over the institutions who can't move as quickly. We saw the gap up this Tuesday, and from there, we've seen the buyers defended that anchor. We're above a rising five-day moving average. It's innocent until proven guilty.
As I said in my midday video for subscribers today, there is nothing here indicating that the sellers are taking control. We had a brief little pullback intraday, but again, that was a brief intraday pullback. But there's above a rising 520, 50, 200-day moving average. It's still innocent until proven guilty.
Just don't be complacent because we're at all-time highs. Things have been easier lately. Don't start making sloppy decisions and buying dips in stocks thinking that, hey, well, the market will bail me out because maybe it will, but why not wait till the buyers regain control and buy strength after a dip? Anyways, we've got higher lows. If you're a swing trader, this is your new higher low in the S&P 500. We're at a new all-time high.
It's foolish to be bearish. But you always have to have risk management as your cornerstone, no matter what your time frame is. For a swing trader, you know, we've got another higher low here in the NASDAQ.
Maybe you set your stop against that. Maybe you're going to set your stop against the low from where this move began. We saw that shakeout and then a continuation higher. You know, Monday we saw that shakeout.
We got back above the daily volume weighted average price. We got back above the five-day moving average, and the buyers have maintained control. So we came into the market this week cautious because we were lower highs and lower lows below the five-day moving average. Buyers regained control. We were cautious, not bearish.
Why weren't we bearish? Because we had a rising 20-day moving average. We had a rising 50. We had a rising 200-day moving average.
Russell 2000 is right back to this prior band of support right in here. This prior support. acted as resistance over here and it's also an important level because that's where we see this thin black 200-day moving average it's also a 61.8 retracement of this high to this low that's what that horizontal line in there means so is it going to be easy for this market to continue to move higher through here not likely but it doesn't mean it can't know where your risk is what's your higher low you want to set your stop against if you're long the russell 2000 semiconductors They're closing in very rapidly on the all-time high. They pushed this week through the year-to-date high, but the all-time high, when we look at that, let's look at the weekly chart, you can see is straight up ahead here at this level. And it's, like I said, it's rapidly closing in there.
Like these other markets, it seems as though there's a big magnet pulling them up there, and it's just not going to resist going higher. Doesn't mean you let your guard down and forget about risk management. That's never what you want to do.
You want to look at it and say, it's an instant till proven guilty. Where is your stop for your time frame? I'm primarily a swing trader, so I know where my risk is. That's why I got stopped out of the balance of biotechs here today.
They just aren't behaving well. They're not doing what I hoped they would do. So I got out. Doesn't mean I might not get back in, but we broke. back below the week-to-date anchor.
We're back below the five-day moving average. I just don't like the way they act. It was a small, slightly profitable, that is, but it's just not doing anything. When you look at some of the leading stocks, Amazon broke out again here today, and it is looking like it's probably going to go to new all-time highs. Not next week.
If it's going to do so it's going to do so in a stair-step fashion And if it does it like this and falls short of that high, maybe you get stopped out somewhere like that. But it behaves well. Apple continues to be a laggard here. And this week we saw that Tesla became a laggard.
It gave back that 330 level that had been prior support in here. That prior support turned to resistance and then failed. Now we're below declining 5-day moving average. On a positive note, slightly positive.
We're above the 50-day moving average. We're above the 200-day moving average. We're above the anchor from the low. But we're below declining 5-day moving average.
We failed. You know, we're going to need to see it get back up above 333, really, to become more neutral. If it gets back above 333, then you can start thinking about, you know, it being a buy. Until then, it's in a range that seems to be tightening in here with lower highs and higher lows. So.
let it compress, let the energy build before you decide to get involved. I've mentioned Veve this week on Twitter, and that one's getting going here. So, you know, manage risk accordingly.
And that's going to do it for me. I hope you have a good weekend and I'll talk again next week.