so this will be the first part of blueprint remastered or one of the first lessons anyways i'm not sure if it'll be the first lesson or one of them just a a section of blueprint remastered that needs to be discussed so in whichever order i decide to release it and that's fine but today we're talking about something that's pretty important and something that i myself was using and have been using for a long time in trading and i typically get asked the question how are you so successful so early on and a lot of the things we talk about in charts as we um as we discussed yesterday on chart raters a lot of the things that we see on the charts we have to look at with a little bit of a different kind of mindset or strategic eye we always take these parts of the charts and [Music] kind of dissect them and we work with a three-lane trading system right like everything with pa on this side being everything before the trade pa everything during the trade which is r a and everything after that moment of execution happens which is ca which then just cycles back and once you have your ca completed and levels get hit then you just cycle right back to pa because you'd simply be doing come on ctrl i ulti there we go i don't know i was hitting ctrl i um we simply flip our chart over and then we're back into the next part of this thing where you are looking to assess the movement on the trade going back into pa right so we know this already we've talked about this you know you you finish the and you go into pa right so we have to start thinking about pa as procedural analysis as everything that could happen that we we have to expand what pa means a little bit so if pa were simply to mean everything before a trade we kind of have to take our old theory of pa and mix it with our new theory of pa because the way we used to look at pa was procedural analysis was kind of the things that you do outside of a trade like not marking technicals things like meta reports getting ready for the markets when it makes sense to scalp and long and now we've defined in a new way that pa is this part of the trade which is kind of in a way the same thing everything that happens before a trade they both share a commonality that even though this is everything before during and after pa still kind of shares something that before you make a decision you have to kind of consider this procedural queue of events to happen so we need to start thinking of of trades in terms of implied odds or implied profits and the word implied comes from poker so this is something that i used that i created for myself way back in the day when i was first starting and when i was trying to take profits i had to find a way to um well i didn't have to find a way but i i always kind of took my poker knowledge and morphed it like i kind of always took my poker knowledge and um morphed it into a way that could work with the charts like taking it and just trying to think of things differently like bankroll management how can you manage your bankroll that makes the most sense to constantly be in a position where you never lose at all you can take shots and scale up and you can have the system that allows you to constantly grow while at the same time reducing risk like that's and there you have bankroll management just like in poker you have a thousand dollars you split that into either 40 buy-ins or 80 buy-ins that way if you have a thousand dollars you don't go and do two 500 tournaments if you're a tournament player giving you two entries you would split that into 40 positions so you can enter 40 tournaments so if you had a thousand dollars and um 10 tournaments were 100 that means one fourth of that would be 25 which means if you wanted to do 40 entries it would be 25 an entry so the the most you could ever enter on a tournament is a 25 tournament and if you made your bankroll all the way up to 2 000 it means then you could enter 50 tournaments because you're still living inside of that the entries rule and then the same thing applies with like buy-ins and cash tables sit-and-goes whatever whatever your style is you would have these rules that define bankroll management so i always try to relate kind of these poker theories and poker teachings in a way that you could say okay now this makes sense from a theoretical standpoint no matter what game you're playing bankroll management implied odds like the most like that another one they call is game theory optimization which is gto the most optimized decision given any one move like i always would take these kind of theory lessons and and morph them and say okay that made sense in poker but how does it make sense here so today we're talking about implied odds so i'll describe what implied odds isn't poker first i'm sure many people this is just going to be noise to them because they're already well aware of it implied odds means that how much you could potentially make in any given hand that you play in poker so if you have say like ace ace or ace jacked what are the implied odds what are what are the implied odds so if you've put ten dollars into the pot and you think that two other people will put ten dollars but this has not happened yet your pre-flop and you've raised to ten dollars and you can say oh i think this person is going to call me and that person is going to call me it's going to make the pot 30 right so you're implying that hey there's this 30 implied odds and then if there's one more typically there would be two more rounds of betting and you would just say okay well if 30 is what what happens before the flop then i'm gonna say that what i'm thinking is that i'll put 15 dollars in half the size of the pot and they'll both call twice so you're gonna put 15 and they'll both call right and then so you have 15 15 and 15 going into the pot so that's another 45 dollars going into the pot right i guess i should have just used the text tool too this might be a little easier but that's fine we're already down this path and then and then so at this point you have 45 plus 30 so you have uh 75 dollars right you have 75 dollars and then you're saying i'm gonna put another half size pot or let's just round it up a little bit let's just say we're gonna put fifty dollars and we're gonna put two thirds of the pot in fifty dollars so we're gonna put fifty dollars more on the final street and one person's gonna fold and the other person's gonna call making it another hundred dollars so the implied measurement here is 175 dollars total so the implied odds of of this bet 10 would be 175 so if we played this out in our head 10 steps ahead and we were saying hey what are the implied odds if i commit to this hand what is it worth we would use that as a measurement of saying okay this is going to cost me the first 15 the first 10 dollars the next 15 i can't remember what we just put actually let me try to redo that i think i can in trading view no i can't um then then we said fifty dollars and a hundred dollars so that means we were gonna spend um fifty dollars here so fifty uh sixty seventy five total and the one in between no that was it that was it so that means we're going to spend 75 to win 175 so it's going to cost us 75 dollars to win uh a possible of 175 so your implied odds would be 75 times 2 would be 150 and there's 25 dollars left over and 25 dollars of 75 is one-third so your implied odds would be um 2.3 to one so you'd have something like this um and my math is a little rusty on this with implied this this was a very old poker tactic this was completely not used many many many aeons passed so this is you know 75 times 2 is 150 so that's where you get your 2.0 and then and then you have 25 left over which is um you know uh 25 out of your 75 is one third so 2.3 that's where the 0.3 comes from 2.3 for one was your implied odds so you had to be right as long as you were right 50 of the time you would make money in poker because you're getting 2.3 for a 2.0 investment right so this was like the way implied odds and poker worked so we have to think about our trading in the same way there has to be some type of measurement when we take this risk and this is now going to go into risk assessment where we can say okay okay the employment of what we are risking in any given trade and i want you guys to keep ra fresh in your mind on this the employment of any given trade and what we are risking so the greater the risk the more the implied odds are going to be on the other side of the chart so for example this weekly level was a super high risk level this weekly level was back here if you are going to take this weekly level as as a knife catch the risk is extremely high like you've got to ra this thing it's polarity on the grander scheme of things so you might have you know one or two polarity points here um therefore below it like this this is the only leg of the move on the weekly so first off that defines one specific part of this chart as being the break level which could also potentially create the origin so so this is a huge polarity moment so it's kind of like its own subcategory of polarity where yes this move can go lower and it likely will go lower either here or here one of those two yes it will go lower but it still becomes like a pretty decent spot to try to take a position on and if you do it's not something you can hold but if you were to take a position on you you can't given the amount of risk you're taking in a move and we're going to use a text tool for this so we're going to go 10 with subcategories inside of it so so this is not to say that it is the final move but it is to say it is representing one type of polarity in the future so this would be one type of ten with subcategories and then this one here would be and we're gonna add a second one here another ten with subcategories which is this one here so if this uh you know what we're going to do instead of floating it like this what we're going to do is we're actually just going to put it inside of it and we're going to go on the weeklies we're going to go on the left side everything else we're going to go on the right side so on the weeklies we'll go on the left and everything else will go on the right because this is going to get a little cluttered so with this level here and let's make this orange because we can't really see it can we orange looks good blue red white no it's a good color to make this thing oh boy okay we're just gonna go with orange orange it is so with this level here it does have subcategories underneath it and we'll do it like that there we go so we can see it this does have sub-categories underneath it this does have sub-categories underneath it as well so if these are implied to be a 10 and 10 you have to say if you are going to take that type of ra risk where you're taking a 10 out of 10 you have to let your implied odds in this trade or your implied trading profits you have to let them grow if you're taking a move that is somewhere else in the charts that's a little higher up that's an eight or nine you're not going to have as much implied odds because you simply have a point of polarity in the trade so your trade is either going to at a 10 support and move up or it's going to support and break down in a big way so if you're taking this risk your implied trading profits are pretty pretty big from that point right like they're they're pretty big it would almost be the same thing as if that four hour trend break that we had yesterday which would have been this guy to this guy like if you're playing a short on this was this it i believe this was it from yesterday and then there was a one hour which was right here right i feel like there's another oh right because you you can use that but then let's first off let's color code them properly so four and you can also use this as like a four sub category but it never actually hard close this is what we were using during the tournament and then it never actually stopped moving on the four to give us an actual trend so we're actually going to mark this as a one hour because it never actually established the four but at this moment at eight a.m it did create a trend for us and if we had created a one-hour candle on that that's white it would have been um which we were above that point at some points like we did go up and they were kind of trying to close as white candles but it never could so anyways that's fine we're just it was a four hour during the tournament or what we were trying to hope to create and then it ends up just being a one hour right so that's fine but if you're playing this trend break it's it's just like we talked about yesterday during chart raiders it is hyper polarized in the move so when you do something like try to trade the trade the reverse point of it which would be here confirming the larger dump or you know whatever whatever point you're trading here like whether it's a 15 or a five i'm sure there's some type of level here that would have been great you know obviously i haven't looked or found it but i'm sure there would have been some you know you start with your your inverses you have a five minute inverse this never closes that's fine i'm sure there's some type of origin level that uh that refused to hard close and you know we can go find that if we want here go like this if you're playing this trade the move is so polarized and and you could even get the backside entry here i'm assuming there's some type of origin level right here you've got an origin three right here so you've got your first one right here you just find the first origin in the in the trade right right here that actually broke that so that wouldn't have been uh in use anymore so it would have been that three right and and that's fine too you do have both here and uh that's fine so you get entry on this on the spot here you've lost trend maybe you bought backside maybe about the origin the the price that you shorted it didn't really matter we saw teams taking these shorts up and up in these regions yesterday like really great trades your implied profits on this trade are huge because you're playing a point of polarity so if you're if you're taking your trade and you're saying look this is an ra 10 out of 10 because it's the trend it's the polarization point which is what we talked about yesterday it's if it's if it's a 10 out of 10 for polarity it means your implied trading profits are going to reflect that risk if you were to take a point like i don't know let's let's go to the i don't know let's just pick a random spot five minute chart right here sure perfect here's your five minute level um does it ever get hit yeah it gets hit perfect this is not polarity of a move this if you were to look at the whole entire range i'm sure you're gonna find much deeper points that were simply untested like this is a much deeper point this is a much deeper point i'm sure you're going to have hourlies that are deeper here um you can make a case for trends here you can make a case maybe for this as a reverse you can make a lot of cases for different levels but what we do know is this isn't that like final polarity in a trade so if you're taking this this move right here your implied trading odds aren't going to be that great it's it's risk appropriate to what you're taking in the trade so if you're taking a trade that's say an eight or a seven i very often see this or even um you know define the polarity in the move like even even on this bottom side where it's the five minute level it was right here right so here's your five minute level right here and i think something else got hit here it was up here and then it then it went a bit deeper and i believe if you follow the trail you end up with hourly levels right because your first hourly was here and then your next hourly is here so so this would have been like pretty pretty polarized too this would have been like extremely polarized because you know at that point it creates a trend there's no hourly trails left i don't really think there's any 15 minutes so this became like a super a super high risk spot so if you're taking this trade and you're saying look this is like a nine or a ten those implied odds you have to weigh the ra of the trade the risk of the trade and how much potential there could possibly be so you know i see a lot of people doing stuff like this and saying oh if this supports the move right and and this was the trail here and this supports the move it means you are at first gonna kind of go and attack maybe this level or you might have that kind of polarity that you're looking for maybe all the way up to even here so you've got a 15 minute polarized point there that would kind of control the move on the top you also have this hourly here so you could use this right you could start here and start working the polarity down and you could say okay oh my god i keep doing the tech side of it let's not here we go we've got the hourly here um you've got the hourly reverse here what else do you have in this trade like we went over this yesterday so i don't want to spend too much time um over doing this this is the 15 it's the same spot you've got the 15 reverse here which gives you a new origin level here so you could possibly create this as an origin possibly you don't really have any hourly levels you have this right here so if this is 10 and this is 10 you have to try to play at least that part of the trade like if you're just playing this ra right here to the first bounce you're completely misidentifying the implied trading odds on this trade right like if you just hit play and we all know this thing is is going up here like if if you're just simply playing it to the first you know five minute level that that's fine if you realize that it's a scalp and you're taking re-entry somewhere on that that backside of that trade like it looks like maybe right here right like this looks like some kind of backside type of level on a smaller time frame or maybe this was like supported by a one minute origin right here break the move move up yeah you could try to go down here like if you're taking this you have to understand that your implied trading odds you could never be just stopping out like right here you're taking such a big risk on one side of the chart that why would you put why would you go all in and it would it would be such a reverse ideology it would be like having pocket aces and taking reverse odds against pocket aces so when i look at this i like to think of them to start myself off with poker hands like i i always relate this to poker hands a six seven of clubs for example could be a great spot that could you know crack pocket aces if the right run out comes but how often is that going to be is that going to be the the case right like if again if you're taking those like lower tier implied situations and you can just hit play here there you go the level was hit perfectly and you could even go deeper in the move to the to the next 10 of the move but ultimately if you are playing this as as as like pocket aces if this level continues to hold right like it's gonna be a huge move and and it doesn't and so that's where you have that exact polarity kind of snap you in that trade right so you have to always look at these moves as implied odds and that also gives you a lot of information too so if this was the 10 and you're saying hey you know we're using one side of the chart to target the other side of the chart and this is kind of what i was alluding to um this is what i was alluding to during the week where i said look you've targeted this level here you've bounced off it perfectly once and you could even go back and do that same level here right this was the earlier in the week trade where you have the brake level of the move you target it once you move up right so you're now starting to ladder origin points you've got an origin ladder happening where you have this to this something we haven't talked about but i think it's pretty obvious i don't even think we need to talk about it you have an origin laddering another origin if you break your ladder one origin is breaking the next origin break levels it's like laddering break levels against each other that of course hasn't been talked about yet but i don't really think there needs to be much to say you just put these in a container as hey we have an origin here that's ladder point one we have an origin set up here that's ladder point two if ladder point two breaks it's breaking ladder point one because you've contained them into containers like that i don't have to go over much of it outside of that maybe one day i'll make a full lesson on that but that's that's fine it's for now that's enough but you're starting to play these spots where if your implied odds are that large you have to start taking the profits on the other side of the trade so you have to start thinking about less premium positions holding not targeting polarity as stronger moves like okay imagine this here this entry here what we talked about yesterday imagine this entry here wasn't your premium entry because your premium entry you're going to go and you're going to be like oh look there's a 15 minute untested level here it's perfect 15 minute untested level wow wouldn't that be amazing to uh to hit that would be like really good and then you have another one here so you have like eight nine ten now i'm sure there are more points here if you start using trends and doing a bigger chart markup i'm sure you can find more points but we're just gonna go with eight we're not we're not trying to nail perfect accuracy here on this thing let's put this in the middle center eight nine uh let's make them all the same color it's already getting a little wonky here with colors because these actually should be color coded properly let's color code them properly as well this one was an hourly i believe nope four was it a 15 it was also 15 wasn't it what in the bananas was this level that i just marked i don't even know my own science at this point uh it was a three minute level i remember it was a three minute level that's fine three minute level oops no no no we don't want to do that one cancel that again apologies i'm sick so my mind is a little broken too not just my throat so if you're looking at this you also have to think of this in in terms of polarity and what can and can't hit we've talked a lot about polarity but you also have to start thinking about things in terms of like premium and non-premium entries right because not every move just goes from polarity to polarity and when you see these things like non-polarized moments getting targeted and creating polarity on the bottom it would almost be kind of the same scenario as having six seven and you know your opponent has pocket aces is the way they played pre-flop like if this was a six six seven suited entry and the board comes four or five suited of your suit and you've taken an entry here and you can see whoa look at that it's not hitting any of the polarity points this is a high risk trade it's still laddering down if we start breaking polarity on the bottom on a non-premium spot like obviously the implied trading odds are huge here so when you're in this trade and you start seeing this you know that this trade is going to start breaking down in in a pretty in a pretty big way right like you you know this thing is is about to start um breaking down again you have a non-polarized point attacking what would be the 10 out of 10 on a chart so whenever you're in trades you you have to start thinking about the risk you've taken as implied trading odds so if you are right now in the charts for example this weekly right here would be like a perfect example so you can just go right back to this spot here say if you took this trade you took this bounce you started marking your levels you have a five minute backside which would be the first part that would hold you down this is already a ten out of ten you would expect this thing to just pretty much snap the the move there's okay so first off let's mark this up i haven't done this yet there is zero origin points so we can start there we have our first trend right here so remember our spot on the bottom is a 10 out of 10 here do we have any three minute nope do we have any five minute nope we have a five minute oh we can we can delete this that's no longer needed um we have a five minute level here so we can mark that as uh as this we can make this brilliant white good so one minute trend five minute level uh ten out of ten weekly spot right go to one minute candle see what happens break trend okay good break trend you have hit your level you have any origins on the bottom here not really no origins what do you have for developed holds you have a three and five you have a 15 here as well this is a big big misstep to not see this so it has hit this 15 and it needs to create over top of this 15. so this is this this would be the mo like this would be what you'd be looking at right so you're in a hyper polarized spot your implied trading odds are huge the implied profits you can make are huge right like the risk is high and the implied trading odds you can make are are pretty big just getting back up to a daily level six or seven percent here getting back up to what broke the move down seeing if you can actually get above or some point that you can make maybe even use this and create a one minute origin like it's it's a pretty big trade right 15 minute level stops you you start holding your 15 minute level i haven't had closed it yet okay you start hard closing your 15 minute level what time frames are you on i haven't hard closed the three up i haven't had close to five you have back tested this five um time is this at right now 204 so you got a little bit of time but not too much i mean you've already started to test things you've hit a 10 out of 10 and just kind of like a micro polarity has stopped you so now kind of at a minimum you just want to stabilize and gain this part of the move so you just really want to stabilize and gain this to say hey we just had a weekly we need to start building time frames on this thing at least we need to start building time frames up to gain that level and then you also would like to say okay this is also going to be another level on top of it which would be a 15. so it could not only be the 15 minute level but it can be the hourly so really you need to start putting out these kind of parameters of what you can gain so let's mark this as the 15. you've taken your 10 out of 10 kind of polarized spot you have the fifth the five minute level here which you kind of need to gain in order to start gaining the 15. you've back tested your final level here um if you can't start gaining this and and now you're starting to close under one minute levels like you've got one minute levels here and here this is kind of showing you that the move is collapsing unless you can hold for long enough and break some other kind of trend like ah do you have like a bigger 15 you do you do have a bigger 15 here which is nice so you do have a bigger 15 minute trend here but you're starting to release this trade in a way you're hitting this level here so if you were to rewind this back to this moment even even right here what do we have on the 15 minute right now we have this as a possible spot that we need to gain so we need to hold that and then at the worst we kind of can't really go below this one here this is testing it right here so we know once it tests it here you can't really start developing hold levels underneath it right because your your implied trading odds are huge here so you want to stay in this trade and give it time to mature because your implied odds are huge here okay we've tested that final five minute body or the five five minute wake that's great at this point now you need to start you've tested the level you need to not do two things you need to hold the level and you need to start developing the other time frame so you'd go okay where's the three it's all the way up there okay we don't need to mark that where's the five it's right here okay good um what can we do next great we're starting to maybe get over top of that five so here's that five minute level right here's the five minute level where you would create that next point of support right so these are all things where we're using comparative analysis to make our buys but we're also using a procedural queue of information to say okay what's next so you're trying to get over this level you can't okay still trying to get over this level but what would be detrimental is if we started closing a white candle under this because now not only did we reject the gaining of the five because we're still trying to gain it we're also starting to close under a one right so you're starting to kind of release conditions on this trade well that's not good you just closed under the one so you didn't gain the five you can move that down to here which is also the 15. so the five and those two are together you've tested the body of the candle okay kind of reset your expectations here that's fine the move is still kind of holding you could also get over this point on the three you've got a three minute hold here no big deal so the last thing you want to do is now start developing under this candle because at that point you're kind of saying i can't gain the levels and i'm hard closing below so you're really seeing like the releasing of this trade what else could you do here you can mark a trend on the bottom sure i'm pretty sure those are gonna be gone at this point marker trend that's gone what about a five um that's kind of gone okay not bad we could be developing a 15. okay at least we've got something here oh we're not at that point yet oh well i guess we know i guess we know where we're going excuse the coffin once again fighting this cold but you know work goes on try to regain that level it's not looking too bad we've lost everything we have one final hole level we're closing underneath and failing to gain higher time frames