Transcript for:
The Biggest shift ever Raul Paul

[Music] it's a brilliant brilliant event and you'll come away with lots of new ideas and a better understanding of this incredible exponential [Music] world you get to speak to the smartest people people like you trying to figure this out but also the people on stage they're the [Music] experts so we get all of that all in one place in Singapore what more can you [Music] ask see you at token [Music] 2049 everyone look sorry this is the cheesy Interruption that you get on YouTube channels but they're really important I'd really appreciate it if you just hit the Subscribe button you see it makes a difference to know how I'm doing seeing the growth in subscribers if we're getting the right content obviously comments help as well but the hitting the Subscribe button allows me also to book the best guests it really does make a difference so if you do enjoy this content and I know you do because you keep coming back to watch it just please hit the Subscribe button sorry again for the cheese but it is important I appreciate it so much take care hi I'm Ral pal and welcome to my show the journey man the journey man as you know by now is my journey to that Nexus of macro crypto and the exponential age of Technology now on this channel and on the real Vision platform I often in include some great interviews of me because I know a lot of you follow me across social media and you want to get some of my thoughts and so often I will find if there's a really great podcast I've been on I'll make sure it's on the channel to allow you guys to find it easy to get to now this one that I've got for you today is a real treat it's a 2 and a half hour interview with me when I was in Singapore with Kevin felonier from when shift happens podcast which is a fantastic podcast Kevin is a really brilliant interviewer I really loved this I loved doing it it was a lot of fun and it gives you insights into me and my life and how I think about things it's more than just the usual interview and I think you guys will all probably enjoy it a lot now those of you who are watching two things as ever firstly make sure you subscribe to the channel I'd really appreciate that if you're watching on YouTube if you're not then please come along to realvision realvision docomo join I keep explaining how incredible the experience is there you'll find a Vibrant Community of tens of thousands of people in every country of the world basically where you can connect with each other share trade ideas with each other see each other's trade ideas um there's an AI to help you understand some of the concepts there is you know the usual charting and analytics and all the other stuff that you need but it's a really great place for a conversation like this you can you can get the AI to summarize it and make notes you can store those notes so you can refer back to it from any learnings that you've got from this interview it's a superpower taking notes has been a superpower for me in my investing journey two things that really work taking notes and the robion platform allows you to take your notes and organize them all in one place and share them with others if you want and also if you find a trade idea well you can build the template of trade ideas where it gives you the risk reward of your trade it monitors it in real time you can share it with others to show you know your trade the thesis behind it you can add Charts you can add links all sorts of stuff to build your investment thesis to hold yourself accountable that's a key process why did I get into this trade when do I get out when do I stock myself out when do I take profits all of those kind of things anyway I'll see you the real Vision platform realvision docomo the interview join me Ral pal as I go on a journey of Discovery through the macro crypto and exponential age landscapes in the journey man I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter [Music] together that explains my entire macro thesis that I spend 2 and 1 half hours explaining it is also everybody's hopes and dreams and it's about to happen I hope so because I will never be allowed on the internet again Raul pal the co-founder and CEO at real Vision a financial knowledge and education platform he is also a key figure in the macroeconomics and crypto space with millions of followers worldwide this opportunity of a $2 half trillion asset class going to $100 trillion is the largest fastest accumulation of wealth in all human history and it's going to happen within propably and so it's the mega is going from 2 and2 trillion to 100 trillion you betting on some random meme coin is not the best way to capture that Trend you will have done the opposite of the message don't this up how do you deal with fud whether it's Justified or not when I sold out a Bitcoin in 2017 I got a lot of hatred there was some real angry people I never expected this or wanted this but it's where I find myself so how does the hardworking 35 36 years old with a wife and two kids ever retire in these conditions when I get stopped in the street a guy comes over and just say I just want to thank you I'm the dean of a school I was never going to be able to get out I was going to work until I died because I'm retiring this year and he's like thank you okay so it's working that's really the mission within crypto we were pretty much allinone crypto Solana what's your biggest prediction for next 12 months I didn't have to say anything else 75 % of you that watch this channel frequently do not subscribe if you like this show and think it provides value to you in your Crypton investing Journey can you please please please do me a favor and subscribe to this channel hit the like button and leave a comment below it helps this channel more than you can imagine the bigger the channel the bigger the guests and the better the conversation thank you today's conversation is supported by Jupiter the most used decentralized Exchange in crypto and the largest Dex by volume on Solana Mento a leading ethereum layer to with more than $2 billion in total value locked and $3 billion in liquid Treasury and Asar Network a scalable Network connecting people to web 3 through entertainment blockchain development and community events so let's start with the basics R pal welcome to the podcast Cheers Cheers nothing like a glass of wine in the afternoon it's perfect actually I was wondering I was like probably like everyone is offering you some alcohol or some wine so like you must be like dry okay I've got a dinner tonight I can have a little nap I'll be fine I can enjoy a glass of wine do you have a heart stop uh no no okay amazing what is your mission well everyone's got lots of missions in life my main mission is to live life to its fullest and take advantage of the opportunity that life gives but I've learned that I'm in a privileged position position of what my experience has been what I see and what I can do and so I just want to bring as many people along as possible in that journey and what is that Journey that Journey can be life itself it can be experience or it can be the financial Journey that kind of this whole world is opening up to us and just helping people do that I think is a is amazing I I get stopped in the street in every country in the world and people just say thank you you last night I was at a real Vision event a guy comes over and just says I just want to thank you and there was a bunch of people there with Finance people and you know kind of relatively successful people he said I'm the dean of a school he said I was never going to be able to get out I was going to work until I died he because I'm retiring this year the guy must have been 40 and he's like thank you I'm like okay so it's working it's you know that's really the mission um is to take people on this journey as we go crypto is the big Journey obviously the whole Finance thing is right is Big it's all part of the same thing but this opportunity of a$2 and half trillion doll asset class going to1 trillion is the largest fastest accumulation of wealth in all human history even if I'm a total I'm Wrong by 50% it's still larger than the entire market cap of the S&P that took a 100 years to build in value and it's going to happen within probably 8 years and so I don't want people to come to me and say why didn't we participate they they succeeded and we didn't I'm like here it is here's the first Global homogeneous asset that is fractionalize that everybody can put 10% of their earnings in it's the gift you've all been waiting for so this is the one why should people listen to you um they shouldn't they should make their own choice I don't claim to be prophetic I don't claim to know more than anybody else I've just got my perspectives um and I've been wrong and I've been right over time I tend to be quite right with these things but not always so they shouldn't so I'm not coming into this to say I always say I'm not a guru I'm on the same Journey my podcast is called the journey man because I'm taking people on the journey with me as I'm learning you say I'm not a guru yeah who are you I'm a guy fortunate enough to be gifted a certain way of seeing the world and I don't know if I learned it or I had it maybe it from my background from traveling so much as you know when I was young you know parents from different countries living in different countries I don't know but I I just see the world visually and I see future paths and then I honed that that's what gravitated me towards macro it's like this is how my brain works give me a spreadsheet I'm miserable hate it give me a really complex thing where I can see in my head in like a 3D Puzzle and I can do it so it just so happens that for some reason I just got this ability from somewhere and it seems to work how did you realize that what the moment you realize hey macro is for me because macro is not something that your parents will tell you no hey start like playing piano playing the flute or whatever or play tennis right when you're young I first started thinking it was Finance I wanted to get into I want to be on the trading desk you know sales desk and I was doing that and you're trying to make sense of the world and I had learned before I got into a bank technical analysis working for a company that was like Bloomberg or writers of the day called tell and I learned technical analysis and I was teaching people and it's very visual you can see markets you can see Behavior you can see what's going on but I started being introduced to a couple of clients that were macro thinkers and I just it just clicked and then I had a few macro clients and I moved the whole team we got poached by Nat West we a firm called um James cable which was the broking arm of HSBC we got poached by nwest big English bank and when we arrived 150 people from Morgan Stanley arrived at the same time and it was basically a takeover of the derivatives Equity derivatives by Morgan Stanley's team and this were the best Equity derivative team in the world B none that had more Revenue than anybody else and I remember the guy the new head of equity derivatives who hadn't hired me I got hired by somebody else he just came and said okay r was restructuring there is no real job of the the job you had before cuz it's a much bigger business now he said what do you want to do I said I want to speak to hedge funds he said sure who do you want to speak to and I just gave him the list of the top 10 largest hedge funds said these it's right get my PL in New York and introduce you to all of them how did that happen because if you are relatively young in your career yeah was there like bigger opportunities where at the right place at the right time yeah it was the you know this was 95 this is when the macro hedge funds were all starting to become the biggest clients this is the period of George Soros Stan draam Miller Lewis bacon at more Capital Paul Tuda Jones this was the dream client for anybody so would you compare that to crypto a couple of years ago right where you could where you would be able obviously the channels are different and the means are different but couple of years ago when I got into crypto late 18 early ' 90s you could it was a bare Market you could literally contact anyone big in the space and they would answer to you and say hey take a plane and come see me because they would be so motivated to get more people along so if you think where I was those guys are already massive in the United States but Europe was happening right Europe was the big trade so they needed their guy in Europe and that was my job I was the guy in Europe and then Goldman poached me and I was the guy in Europe and I started and ran their hedge fund sales business and my job was just facilitating all of these giant us hedge fund managers into all of their trades in Europe was the moment you said enough corporate life it's time for me to take the leap it was 2000 saw the bare Market coming hadn't hit yet how did you see that I had obviously the market had gone crazy but then it felt like it was starting to break the economy was slowing down there was the classic kind of macro signals that we were at the end of the cycle and I wanted that trade and I could either do it for the hedge funds or I could go and do it for myself and Goldman at that point I was at the point where I was the head of um hedge fund sales that hadn't yet anointed who was going to be the managing directors in the partners of that and I just felt I didn't want to be involved in that whole rat race of partnership and so I decided I was going to leave and do the trade from the other side of the fence um running a book with your own money or say hey like to go and work for one of the big hedge funds because I was servicing them and I I knew I knew what I was doing but I'd never traded a book so um I spoke to a couple of clients Tuda and eventually went to GLG um who was the largest hedge fund firm in Europe and they said yeah come here and that was it was just a joy to leave Goldman which was really restrictive and then I'd walk across Hyde Park in the morning to the offices in Mayfair you know and it was just we had table tennis tables and it we had this the amazing Chef in the kitchens and own private gym and it was like a different world did you ever feel this was a sort of risk or you're just thinking like in your gut this is the right thing to do no I thought it was a risk it was a risk because I had a huge franchise I was getting paid very well I walked away from a lot of golden sack stock because I was there for the IPO um I used to argue with my boss at bonus time because I'd be given a bunch of shares and I'd say well I'd rather have the money he's like yeah but we've got shares and they invest over years and there's all these stock options they're going to be worth a fortune I said maybe maybe not I said cash is money now shares on and he used get really angry he was a Frenchman uh Manny Roman he now runs Pimco and Manny get really angry with me and then the day I quit and I was going to the biggest client of the firm and I said listen I'm leaving I'm going to go to GLG he's like you know I used to get angry with you about your stock options I said yeah he goes you are absolutely right they're worth zero I told you and so I got none of them when I left do you think he was angry because you were taking a move that he was not able to take no he went to run JJ in the end okay so he actually left after I left GG he joined no it was just the rules if you went to a competitor or somebody of that sort you couldn't vest your shares so it wasn't his fault but I was arguing all the way through that these aren't worth anything and they weren't I mean I had a whole bunch of shares that did vest but but yeah I walked away from a lot you started Global macro investors so that was so I I was there at GLG for the B market in 2001 2 3 4 and the recovery did really well we got nominated hedge fund of the Year all sorts of stuff that was great but running a hedge fund is incredibly stressful obviously you don't get paid for nothing and my quality of life was sacrificed I was burnt out from Goldman cuz cuz I was there for the Asian crisis um it was a huge amount of work then 2000 then on the other side trading it running all the risk checking things in the middle of the night not sleeping I'm like sounds familiar sounds familiar yeah it's like crypto you trained already basically yeah that's right well that's what you learn right you get you know you learn enormous bandwidth because that's what the world was so if my job at Goldman was to disseminate information absorb it seminate in bite-sized chunks for all the most famous people in the world and be on for everything and everything happened instantly everything had to be replied to instantly if you're on two phones and the third phone rang and that was Soros that was chuda that was more Capital you had to answer that third phone as well at the same time I mean it's an incredible skill set you learn which is this ridiculous at High Velocity multitasking which really helped and the hedge fund was then you could step back a little bit and see the bigger picture but in the end I just thought what am I doing this for do I want to be the richest man in the world or do I want to have the best quality of life that's a great one and so I left and moved to Spain how old were you 36 that's interesting one so I semi retired and I just said if I can cover my cost of living I've made some money I wasn't the richest man in the world but you know I bought a beautiful house in Spain and I thought if I can cover my cost of living by writing macro research to the hedge funds because most research providers haven't been in the seat I knew everybody I knew how they spoke I knew what they did I knew their trades they knew me personally easy so I did that and I thought if I can cover my cost of living I'll be fine didn't work out that way it ended up becoming much more successful but I went back to work no but that's I was that's probably logical at some point you're going to get back to work like if you're you have this this drive and this well also living in a Beach town in Spain there's no intellectual capital I have great friends but it's a party every day absolutely and you don't you're not learning from anybody yeah it's kind of like if you're in Asia that's why I always say I need to live in Singapore or in Hong Kong or in a city because in Asia there is kind of I call it the balet Trap yeah or the bouet Trap or whatever you go there but I'm always thinking you always have to think like worst case scenario if I lose my job or if my businesses go to or whatever right who is there around me my friends AK my network and can help me get out of trouble if I retired and I'm in or or seei retired and I'm in at the beach right the people are there probably not the most let's say driven in life in terms of career yeah therefore if one day something bad happens I'm in trouble because I'm not going to have the people who I need to help me out right yeah and so and you're not stimulated completely and life without stim stimulus is not a life I know I had that dream that I could Farm olives and almonds and it's just my brain's not wired that way it's I think yeah I think a lot of very high achieving people they have this dream but then they realize maybe for three month is good you know or six month or whatever but then you need the the actual happiness comes from waking up every morning and struggling no matter of the actual result is from struggling and not if you just think you're going to chill and be happy you're probably going to end up unhappy if you're wired like building businesses and all that stuff and I see the same uh with all the people who come on this podcast most of them they made you know in crypto it's crazy they made hundreds of millions or billions of dollars like kind of overnight I mean overnight couple of years and the real ones they don't even care about the they still very simply they don't care about all this well because they know that the moment they start to care about that it's kind of like the beginning of the end right yeah and uh and for their own happiness and their own sanity because there's something much and if you even look at U Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk what why do you try to go to basically why do you build rocket ships it's yeah it's cool is to evolve the civilization everything but it's probably also because you're trying to get bigger and bigger goals because at some point like like when you build Amazon like what are you going to do after that to stay happy to to struggle and stay happy right yeah I think that's right but you can lose the plot in that where it all becomes about the struggle absolutely so how do you find the game is the point scoring how rich am I completely how do you find the balance because you had this kind of first realization at 36 I don't want to be the richest guy on the planet I still care about quality of life that's what we're working for how you define this up to you you built real Vision in 2014 mhm why I was in Spain and I knew I wanted to do more so I had a list of things I wanted to do um that I thought okay these are interesting areas to me I was went around the world trying to set up the world's safest bank that was one that ended up being crypto to me I was going to offer um build a sort of family office service network while I've kind of done that with real vision and some of the other stuff I've done but I'd also realized that 2008 happened and then 2012 in Europe which most people don't really realize how bad that was I mean we almost lost all of the major governments you know defaulting on their debt plus the entire banking system and I was buying tin food and generators in Spain and the ECB forced Spain to take a bailout of $19 billion over a weekend if not we would have lost everything tons of friends of mine went to bust tons of my parents friends had their money taken from Banks they would do things like hey why don't you have we'll give you extra high savings account um and so these 70 70 year olds would go yeah oh that's great and they converted them out of deposit accounts into preference shares and then the banks went bust they lost all their money and I could see the rise of Occupy Wall Street I could see the indignados in Spain I could see the anger and the fact that I was at the middle of the financial system I knew exactly what was going on and nobody else did and I didn't have a platform to tell people and when I tried to tell them I'd go out for mates for in Spain saying please be careful I mean 50% of those people I had lunch with almost went bankrupt and I tried to explain didn't understand they weren't involved in finance they didn't know any of this and people afterwards said why didn't we know and I'm like why did I know and they didn't so I'm going to change that so that was the idea of real verion to really level the playing field and say it's not right that the hedge funds at the time had all of the knowledge and nobody else did you choose video to do that yeah we talked about it this myself really it was myself Daman hoer we both lived in the same Village we really conceptualized the idea um and then Remy afterwards and later Grant we were thinking through the idea of a newsletter but it kind of it just didn't feel like we were going to have an impact and I think it was Daman probably because Damen always had the great ideas very creative ideas he said well we should just do video now at the time there were no long form Finance podcasts they didn't exist we invented them video was early days of YouTube Netflix had launched two years prior I mean it was a stupid concept and when people came to us and said well what do you guys know about making video we said all we have no idea at all none of us had ever made a video and we had to figure it out and we went to we came to Hong Kong to meet grants I think it was uh and we we met a producer from CNN said well how does it work she goes well it's going to cost you about 20 grand an hour to film content and we came back and thought well this is this business is never going to work and then we just said well why don't we just film on SLR cameras and so and we figured out out employee number one was a Belgian cameraman who happened to meet in the bar in Little Cayman Island of 140 people I'm like well can you edit video and film he's like sure so that was the start and then he turned into something massive right yeah that has a massive impact on the word on people on me too have to say um and one of the big themes now that you are big about is unfuck your future yeah you published a macro and crypto master class with Julian Bell fellow Swiss citizen 10 days ago called Everything code yeah actually rewatched it for the third time until 2 a.m. last night to make sure like I got the whole thing like there's a lot there there is a lot in this video you explained the current big issue that that we're all facing today a 12% hurdle rate which means that if our investments do not return more than 12% per year we are all becoming poorer and you split this 12% into an 8 8% debasement and 4% inflation can you explain this as if you were talking to your mother yeah when you buy an asset for investment what you're doing is is you're locking up money now to spend it later future deferred consumption you need to be compensated for that generally because you're locking money up so that's why long-term bond yields have a higher yield than shortterm generally and so that asset needs to be worth more than current money today now we all know about the inflation call it 2% a year whatever the number is we kind of all understand that bit but after 2008 they started using liquidity so creating more money to allow the governments to be able to pay the interest on the excess debts and that is debasement and we've seen it with air miles so if you tell your mother I don't understand what you're talking about so do you remember when you first got your air miles on Swiss Air and you know if you flew to London a few times before you know it you could get a flight down to marsay yes and now you fly to London for a few times what does it get you I don't know a pair of plastic sunglasses on their website that's debasement that's when you excessively issue points rewards money that the value goes down and they're doing that by 8% a year on a a globalized basis so it means that any asset that you have needs to go up by more than that or your future self is poorer and there's a really important concept to introduce here which is which is what you call wage deflation right which what most people need to understand when you're are working you're basically earning a certain salary if your salary doesn't go up as much as the money printing then what is the what is the definition of retirement is I need to accumulate enough assets so that my assets I own when I retire they cover my life expense but if if there is money printing therefore the the fat currency is worthless compared to fixed asset therefore what I uh work for which are is my retirement which is buying these assets right is becoming harder and harder because of wage deflation so the wage deflation if you think about how companies pay you whatever you do let's assume you don't work for a big tech company to get millions of shares let's assume you just do an ordinary job you go to work you get paid you work for Proctor and Gamble whoever it is that company's p&l is driven by the economy your wages go up and down with economic growth and so well they they don't go down by economic growth you lose your job job so you you take a heus in your earnings for a period of time however the stock market goes up based on the debasement of currency so therefore your wages every year buy you less of a house less of a share of the S&P 500 or whatever stock market it is and so and so forth so you're getting poorer which I can actually see with the conversation I have with my friends who are in the early 30s yeah they basically tell me since like one or two years even the I would say normal people who don't invest and don't really let's not even talk about crypto let's just talk about normal investing right they're just saying I don't understand I'm working like a slave 10 12 hours per day and I earn so little like my salary I'm getting I I realize already now I'm 30 or 31 that I'm never going to be able to buy a home or flat I started this discussion back in there was a famous piece that I did it's got like 4 million views now called the retirement crisis I remember that and I explained how this was going to play out which was that young people were totally and that they were never going to get up the ladder and they needed a gift and back then this was 2016 I said crypto is that gift this is the only way I can see to get out and that has continued to play out to this day and now those same people who were 30 then and now 35 and they're having kids so they're moving out of cities buying houses in the country because it's cheaper they're not going to work in the office because it's cheaper they have to bring up their kids and they can't afford a nanny and they still can't get ahead they've got school fees and retirement and their house are they renting a house or they own a house chance are they don't own one yet and they're that they know they're everybody knows they're and they don't know how to get out of it and that whole idea once you understand that people know they're it explains a lot of how the world works it explains why we get the left and right polarity I've got to blame somebody for why I'm then it is it's also the rise of the speculative economy why because I'm never going to get ahead I have to take risk that explains GameStop it all came from Occupy Wall Street it all came from the same thing it's all the same movement of these people realizing that their future has been robbed because the Baby Boomers took too much debts on because there was too many of them and the economy couldn't cope with that so it's it's a long economic story that got there but the present day is we need to take action so how does the a hardworking 35 36 years old guy with a wife and two kids ever retire in these conditions well it's not from wages so people are doing two jobs we all are bizarrely right we're all doing multitude of jobs that's in itself weird but we've kind of adjusted to it saying it's normal then they're having to learn had to speculate they all became financialized 2020 was like that whole generation didn't care about real Vision did there were some people who studied the masters of finance and stuff yeah sure they cared they didn't care about markets they didn't care about anything they just didn't give a they cared about Instagram 2020 came and suddenly they were given money and they were at home and they were given a game to play and they saw the the future and that was the last largest fastest financialization of people I think in all history it was astonishing everyone listen if you want unfuck your future let me help you follow this channel subscribe click the notifications and you'll get everything as soon as it comes out see that so you talked about gme right GameStop but there is other ways right what's the concrete solution for people in their late 20s or early or mid-30s to this seemingly unsurmountable problem and I basically split the solution in two parts so people really understand the the whole framework here the first part is understanding liquidity Cycles MH why should any adult who wants to unfuck their future understand the liquidity cycle you actually don't need to because you just need liquidity cycle is actually somewhat mid curve meaning it's a overe explanation for a simple thing simple thing is all you need to know is number go up the whole system is set for number go up so therefore just be involved in that number go up and own the asset that goes up the most it's it's it's that simple I mean people understand this more and more now yeah but even just a few years ago again I'm Swiss in Switzerland you don't question the bankers and you don't question the lawyers right like the banker he has the nice car he has a nice house he has a nice suit so I basically should listen to him and then I was going going to my parents 2018 19 saying this Bitcoin thing is amazing buy some they bought some but like they were like Kevin like the day you make a million dollar we'll listen to you so I like I need to make a million dollar as Weck as possible so they start to listen to me um so H but how do you I mean now people understand more and more but still a lot of people will say number go up it's too easy why are all these people in the banking you know industry having jobs if number goes up is just the answer that's a very good question I mean look when I say this I say it humorously but it's true yeah right the whole system is set for number go up that's what debasement of currency does when you have an over system the collateral of the system the assets can't go down CU if not you've got too much debt versus the assets and that's what happened in 2008 so the whole system is based on that the baby boomers are all going into retirement you can't let the assets go down because if not they've got all the wealth so therefore consumption will collapse the number can't go down so as opposed to number go up you could say the number can't go down so the liquidity cycle is just an element of that it's the actual mechanism by which it happens if you're 30 you shouldn't give a about that cycle you should just use any weakness to keep buying more number go up assets for others it then becomes a cycle to try to take some risk off the table because it's a volatile space particularly in crypto cryto or technology investing both work well but then you come the question is and most people get to this is everyone thinks yeah I'm going to take money off and then you're like and where am I going to put it because when as soon as I take it off the basement's happening again so you might put it in stable coins for it sure definitely cash in lifestyle chips buy that house do that thing that you want but after that it's difficult to think about getting out the reason Jeff Bezos is the richest man in the world is because he didn't sell his Amazon Equity right people forget that compounding returns Bitcoin since 2012 is up 22 million per. it's 140% a year in that is four down 85% bare markets and it's still out salana was down 97 and a half% last cycle or 98 and a half sorry it is still compounding at 240% returns a year yet people we'll this up because of their ego right and like oh yeah I can uh I can out trade I can I can buy low sell high it's happening now already and we've barely started people are now seeing 100x in memes and they've gone from I've been telling people please play that game sure do it with 10% keep 90% of your allocation or 80% if you're a total dgen just in the main tokens then you can't screw it up don't use leverage self- custody you'll be okay but I can see it already people are gravitating towards the influencers who are talking about memes the main characters people are ansom in this cycle are getting more and more attention M because people are desperate to make money in the shortest period of time and they don't realize that compoundly get 150% return which is Bitcoin which is the worst performing of the major assets 150% you don't need to be in it very long for that to compound to massive returns but they want to make it all this time and so I can see them losing their minds already they're not using leverage yet they're kind of scared of that but they will however much we tell them please don't use leverage they will use leverage however much we tell them please don't yield Farm in weird because you're getting a 60% yield they will do it and I I beg them yeah but they don't they won't listen you were actually very vocal last cycle about not trying to get any yield right even the lower yield 5 10% like oh I don't understand the risk so I'm not going to do that and people will be like yeah but look like the yield even if it's 5 10% but my yield goes up 6X right whatever even in eth or this amazing and we all have this kind of foro and then look at the result what happened right and so very often I mean not very often pretty much all the time the simpler the more boring the better but people are addicted to dopamine maybe like they're because not doing anything else maybe they're I don't know they're bored in their day job maybe they're not having a day job and being Trader is like their main thing maybe what they don't understand is that these influencers their job is to get the attention and they will say anything that is required to get your attention even if they I have 100% of my portfolio in with maybe true maybe not right but I'm getting your attention that's the goal and that's how I make my money right and so the the simpler and the most boring the better yeah I I don't go for yield even that whole crazy thing where they claimed that I had been involved in lunar and all of this stuff no no I know I know like it we'll talk about that later actually in a third part where things are taken out of context yeah but my point was always I was a macro guy who bought call options or put options yeah and I never sold them because I don't don't like that risk and when I saw blowups I would see in macroland people taking huge bets they went wrong they blew up I'm like fine but then I would see these yield guys and they would be clipping 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% a month and then they'll be down 50 and they it was that risk if you've got a natural order of volatility fund that's okay but when you've got this perfect nonvolatility and then that it's catastrophic you'll lose all your investors you'll lose everything and that's what yield does to people and that's where your background in traditional Finance basically was massively helpful because you you've seen it multiple times and even in when you compare to you know the the the risk asset the risk curve like you're just basically saying Hey look it's all the same nothing is new in crypto nothing no we're human and we we value things in certain ways and I've seen it every time so I was lucky enough to be involved in there was a the oldest bank in England bearing Brothers blew up from Nick Leon based in Singapore who was Rogue trading became a film called Rogue Trader that was him selling volatility on the niik and he sold so much it eventually blew up was basically yield mhm through a different way then cut through to 1998 the big blow up long-term capital again they were looking using stupid leverage to get small returns when something goes wrong that leverage goes the wrong way s all of that 2008 was that all over again the history is littered with excess leverage to to juice yields that combination is the Killer and maybe an additional point to that in crypto is you you don't even need to use stupid leverage to get wrecked right you can be in March 2020 I was lever two or 3 X on eth and I got wrecked like so basically it's so volatile crypto that even the non- stupid Leverage is too much already I even I often run the numbers through my head and I'm like you know maybe I should leverage my soul B I don't really like Leverage I did when I was running a hedge fund I'd use a lot of Leverage I've used a lot of Leverage in the past but when you do the maths you're like what is a normal draw down in Salona well 30% is like that can happen four times a year okay so that means I can't be three times levered can a 50% draw Down happen yeah you might get one of those in a bull market so I can't be two times levered so I can't take leverage I just can't unless you're really short-term trading but I just that's not the game so I can't do it and then I start thinking well do you just buy the deep in the money call options on derit and use those because then you can't lose more than you buy in premium but in the end I just stopped myself and just said just don't this up just don't it up that's it I just don't want to this up because it matters to me I've got a lot of money wealth ego everything riding on this thing like we all have yeah just don't want to it up the simpler the more boring the better because again if you think about the 5% yield or the 10% yield people are fighting for I'm going to do this and swap to that and then I've got this bridge and I I'm getting 12% yield over there I'm like salana mov 12% in a day how's this compensating you for risk taking it's just not worth it absolutely and if you think about there's all these coins or these air drops in crypto right it's just to make you do something to make you lose your crypto like that's it like you're going to lose them you're going to get hacked like just don't freaking do anything right you don't need to I I don't do any of that no farming for points or drops or anything but you st you stake your soul Noe don't stake okay I don't even stake okay now it's probably stupid but I'm like I don't need the 5% I just just put it in my ledger or I you know store it in a multi Sig and I don't need to worry about it yeah that's why I got into this in the first place was realizing that you didn't own your assets in a financial system I'm not going to make the same mistake and give somebody my assets or give somebody control of my assets or give somebody a share of my assets the beauty of crypto is self- custody it's so magical and people don't yet understand that they will and the moment you are farming points or farming air drops or even staking you're actually kind of lending your assets or giving it to someone else as responsibility and therefore the basic principle of crypto is not applied anymore exactly yeah exactly and just never lose control of your crypto because number go up right and the whole game is to throw you off that one magic thing it's just hold or hle you know that that thing is real so solution part one liquidity cycle solution part two we talked about crypto a lot I wrote NASDAQ and crypto I could have written crypto and crypto we'll get there but NASDAQ and crypto nothing else than NASDAQ and crypto have outperformed the central banks balance sheet uh money printing plus inflation so the 12% uh since 2008 eight which means basically that if you own real estate you're getting poorer if you own gold you're getting poorer if you own S&P 500 you're flat despite S&P 500 being up 6.5% uh 6.5 x sorry since the great financial uh crisis lows in 2009 so everyone is like I should buy a house in early 30s maybe to think differently why are NASDAQ and crypto the only asset classes that outperform the 12% hurdle rate this is a really important point is everything is easier when you're writing a secular Trend why was my career successful I rode two Trends one was the rise of the derivative Market gigantic right a 1.4 quadrillion dollar market now that was one the other was the rise of hedge funds so at the biggest customer base and the biggest product you can't help but make money that's a secular Trend you want to be in places with a secular you want to live in a country where the economy is growing on a secular basis it's like one of the reasons why Spain is difficult to live in most of Europe is like a museum now it's beautiful but it's not a place to be an entrepreneur because the economy is not growing same with Japan and China's gone kind of EX growth India is the fastest growing economy the Middle East but there's two trends that are easily investable that are in a secular Trend every day and it's all the same Trend every day is more digital than the previous day it's as simple as that and therefore this whole trend of digitalization of everything including human intellect including human labor that's robots and AI including money everything is going to outperform so just ride that Trend and don't overthink it I see so many people wanting to trade Commodities there and this cycle there and I'm like you're wasting your time you don't need to do all of that stuff I've been guilty of all of that stuff but I've realized that you don't need to do any of it you said both NASDAQ and crypto have outperform the central bank's money printing since 2008 but you're all in crypto and not in NASDAQ mhm why because all assets are correlated to this the business cycle and the everything code cycle it's all a debt briefy cycle so if everything is correlated then diversification doesn't work MH so if diversification doesn't work then he want to own the asset with the best risk adjusted returns now this is where people get weird they're like yeah but crypto goes down 80% every four years on a risk adjusted basis it is an alien asset class the reward so far outweighs the risk that people can't get their heads around an asset that goes down 98% like salana and still compounds at 250% a year so when I take a chart of everything I just compare one asset to another and I look at the chart of NASDAQ looks amazing it's a log secular exponential Trend divided by the price of Bitcoin to see relatively how it's done it's down 909 97.9% I think it's 9992 9.92 that's right I mean that's like Okay so there's no second best there is no second best making another investment decision is suboptimal if you've got the right time Horizon you know it it doesn't work if you choose if you choose too short of time Horizon but choose a fiveyear 5year 10 year time Horizon it's ludicrous the difference that you kick yourself if you went oh I had choice of the the orange pill or the blue pill and I took the blue pill and it's gone up but I've made 99% less than I would have if i' taken the orange pill yeah and we've never seen anything like this before so this is super unusual people can't get their heads around this and you're talking about NASDAQ here we're not even talking about gold I have a friend of mine he runs a gold business but he's actually pretty much all in crypto and I'm like bro like yeah but you can own both but like why ah because uh when things go to go holds better and the problem is it's the same as in investing in general right if you're 25 or 30 or 22 the best thing you can do is to take an Excel spreadsheet and calculate a compounded interest if I invest 500 bucks every month in S&P 500 we start with that before we going to bitcoin because it is going to look too crazy right for normal people then you understand how exponentiality do we say that exponentiality works right the brain is not built to think in exponential terms no and so you're like oh yeah but look I could have bought Bitcoin at 69k four or three years ago or two whatever when it was I'm flat you know they they don't think exponential exponentially and so that's one of the big problem in normal investing and then you apply that to crypto and people who don't even understand exponential growth for for S&P 500 they will be they will take you for a mad person because hey look just take Bitcoin 130% annualized after 5 10 years look at the result and then they still want to do it so they do it and then they just it up and they lose everything because it's just suddenly they become obsessed it becomes my precious it's like from The Lord of the Rings it's like yeah oh my God money I can make money and then it's like 100 100% a year is not enough I need to do more yeah and it's like wow come on guys it doesn't come that easily actually iard that a lot I I helped some people get into crypto last year just a Bitcoin Ethan soul and they're like oh man it's up only 3x I'm like what what world do you live in exactly I'm pull yourass thank you actually was about to do the same but how is the wine it's good it feels like it could age a bit longer but it's got a board ape on the front hang wine 2014 it can last longer than this but I appreciate the other bottle is 2010 so okay um so what we just disc discuss right now is essentially what you call the super massive black hole right yeah crypto super massive black hole Yeah it's like it's I see everybody go down this journey and it's really funny to watch often people go into the space it up go oh this this is too crazy for me they then absorb a bit they come with a bit of humility they come back to the space and slowly it becomes everything I've seen all my macro friends do this I've watched them all my peer group the people I grew up with in the industry one by one just go to the black hole and jump into the abyss and never come back people like Alan Howard Legend of our space uh we we launched hedge funds at the same time Alan was always a better Trader than me and was famous as one of the greatest Traders around I mean he's all crypto Dan tapiero Dan Morehead just one after the other they get there and then never come back because the Returns on a risk adjusted basis are so ridiculous M that they realize this is the if there's one trade to dedicate your life to this is the trade this is the big one the biggest trade mankind has ever been given now that sounds hubristic but it's proven no other asset has ever done 22 A5 million per returns in 12 years you said diversification is dead if it's all one Trend which is the economy stupid this goes against what any wealth manager or Banker would tell his and her clients why is concentrated risk taking in the greatest macroeconomics trend of all time the best play as long as you do it intelligently so true wealth is made from a concentrated bet that's Jeff beos Elon Musk it's actually it's one concentration which is one Mission to Mars but it's multiple businesses most true wealth is generated from one big bet in markets that's certainly the case I don't know many people who run broad Diversified portfolios who end up becoming wealthy even Warren Buffett's portfolio is pretty concentrated so concentrated bets really are the way but that's very hard to do because you know you're trying to take the um you know the the the big bet over the mortgage crisis and stuff like that they're hard to take but here we've got a bet that has everything going for it it is driven by behavioral economics so I number go up means that more people come into the network which means number go up more the number go up the more money's in this new digital economy that creates the applications layer businesses being built on it the more businesses being built on it the more use of the blockchain the more the number go up the more the number go up the more people come in before you know what the finance industry wants it is a super massive black hole of it's like the greatest behavioral scheme of all time so it's genius for that and it it attracts people then you've got the debasement of currency then you've got the non-fit forp purpose of the financial system that exists then you've got the fact that the this is just digitizing value settlements and everything else you know all of contracts and so you've got a ludicrous amount of Mega Trends all in one point it's liquid it trades 247 it's accessible to almost every single human on the planet it's like come on guys this is the big one there is nothing ever going to be bigger than this diversification is dead and you walk the talk you're all in crypto but within crypto you pretty much all in one crypto so L because there is no diversification which is the absolute antithesis of diversification why did you go all in Solana last year so if we apply that thesis that there is no diversification everything's correlated you want to own the best risk reward asset if you go too far out the risk Curve Your early stage you don't have Network adoption effects yet so then it becomes more VC bet as opposed to a growth bet that's a different bet so I have made a lot of money in the last cycle by switching from Bitcoin into Ethan got a lot of hatred for it in that bizarre world that is Bitcoin Maxi um I had switched because I saw Network effects of eth were growing fast it was FTS that really ramped it up plus Defi and so an earlier token with less adoption that's gaining adoption goes up faster in price that's just how it works so I thought I was going to be all eat this cycle I had a bit of salana and I I'd observed a couple of things this space is about narratives first primarily about the narrative I was at an event just the start of the bare Market March 2022 at some very fancy ski resort in Utah uh by a boutique Investment Bank um and there was it the room was just billionaires plus the heads of every Media Company you know it was just an incredible group of people and I was hosting the web 3 sessions and it was myself be Elon mus brother Kimble um Adam who runs Instagram Natalie who ran Yuga Labs at the time totally I didn't know him for I owned some Salon I didn't really know who he was didn't know anything really right because he's nice guy but he's not the character right but and I can't name the people but some very well-known people very wellknown had come up me said what what's with these Sal people I've been talking to them and I was like wow okay these are Big music industry people these were you know Instagram the head of Instagram there's all of these people I'm like this kind of weird Russian guy knows all of these people and so I just realized that they understood that their Tech was great to be the consumer or retail train chain even their logo the name everything about it SM of mass adoption but it was a bare market so I walked away I always processed these things after I've seen them so I was on my flight home I'm like something weird was going on there so I marked it down and like yeah the something salana so salana collapsed over the next three months and so I started buying in June when eth bottomed I bought eth based on liquidity analysis I bought eth in June 20 June July 20202 and salana I was too early in salana got the e low you know very very close um and then I kind of left those positions and just continues to run them and yeah they all bounced and everything was great no eth didn't bounce I mean salana had that next leg lower eth didn't confirm it which was really interesting to me as well and I just kept adding in salana but I was still kind of like 30% slana 70% eth at that point and it was not until I had been then watching the chart of the salana eth cross in the same way I do the NASDAQ Bitcoin charts it's it's like what's the relative bet and it was basing and I'm like you know this could break out and I've got thesis this this is the the the retail chain and then I was in New York at Main and Kleen Sullivan from brevan Howard who's somebody I really respect was on stage talking and she just dropped yeah and obviously fire danc which is going to be a game changer on salana blah blah blah I'm like I don't know what she's talking about next up was toi so Anatolia comes up starts talking and then drops a bomb which was like yeah well you know jump think they've got this thing to be running at between 600,000 and 1.2 million TPS and I didn't process it at the time it was on the flight home like 1.2 million TPS that's 20x salanus theoretical TPS of um 60,000 I'm like okay this this is a step change and that weekend I was writing Global macro investor over in little cman I looked at the chart chart just started breaking out I went on Twitter and said who knows about fire answer silence I asked totally publicly I said when's this out he goes I think it'll be out on testnet by the end of the year so it was a public not wasn't something I I knew no secret information I'm like that was it I did the switch I didn't have my ledg of that device over that weekend Julian bloody Bell did and he was doing a switch before and it moved like crazy over that weekend and I got back home to my house and gr came on Monday and just literally switched everything so at the 0.01 Soul e right yeah which was very similar to what you did in 2020 with thec I basically I basically copied you on both to be honest I copied you on both and there will be and there will be soon yeah if you remember the last cycle it was Luna Avalanche yeah polygon um and salana Y those were the chosen four y one didn't survive and one was king or Crown Prince let's call it something will happen this cycle that will give us that bet again that bets incredibly rewarding but hard to do because there's a lot of things that look like they're going to last and they don't have my thoughts on that but we're going to discuss that later because obviously I have to talk about that right but essentially the framework because the the the kind of bigger picture bigger learning here is what you've done with e in 2020 2021 and what you've done with Solana 2023 24 anyone could have done yes and no inside information no special knowledge no technical knowledge no nothing and in my very humble opinion that's the way to make money in crypto which is we're not VCS right we don't have like maybe very technical understanding exactly we understand that most of these coins are pure gambling so what's the real game here it's probably to find the E for flat cycle second largest coin by market cap okay covid crash went down to 80 or 90 but then he did like a 50x liquid for the second largest coin which is like an absolutely amazing risk adjusted BET right for that anyone could have taken and we get given this bet every cycle absolutely Ely you get a 10 to 50x every cycle from buying one of the biggest coins yeah the hard thing is people get stuck in a narrative there are people stuck in and you know I'm going to get hated for this but people are stuck in kadano people are stuck in xrp they're stuck in stuff from the past doesn't mean they're bad projects but if your game is to make the most money then you have to drop all of your allegiances from the previous cycle all of the things that you had taught yourself to believe like eth is the only thing that was what you had to believe last cycle and now you have to believe that saler is the fastest cheapest best and that narrative will get shattered next cycle and you have to accept that that's okay it's very hard to do it's really hard yeah regarding Solana I mean you said you have people who thank you every day right so there's a thank you from me because you are one of the three reasons I switched 80% of my portfolio at 17 to $20 last year in Sana the first one was Chris berisi yeah who was very bullish yeah when when I was always saying before FTX happen I was like so now I'm probably going to put like a good amount of money between 10 and 15 if it goes down there and then FTX happens it goes lower than 10 I'm like it's even I can't do this it's right so I'm like oh and then people calling for one or you know like I'm like oh man I should do it now but I can't like it's the the the the thing I to accept that the thing is probably right then it's not kind of like goes sideway between whatever 15 and 25 or 10 and 25 it was the vitalic statement actually exactly vitalic yeah that was really key yeah he's like he's basically said before you drive this thing down to zero this is a real project with really skilled people and a Vibrant Community that Chris myself there weren't many others who at the time were saying you know what this is maybe the biggest gift we've been given yeah for me was Chris I'm like okay this dude is saying this thing is not dead and he's like super bullish and he's super smart because I was listening to him since years because of Ky wood and everything right then I met a who you met last night right who is basically working for Solana and he was previous Uber uh built Uber in India right arm of Balaji is doing the network state conference with Balaji yeah like he's very close to Balaji very close to NAS daily I'm like this guy's working full-time for Solana I met him I talked to him I'm like this guy's super smart Chris is super bullish there's guys on the field who are Mega smart who were all in Solana and then there's r with his soul e 0.01 which is the same as freaking ebtc four three four years ago no brainer I need to do it right and so you're definitely part of it so thank you basically um you it's weird cuz I look back and I I sort of can't remember getting that call so right but I know because everyone knows me for that call but it's weird because it was I was so hated at the time I was really fighting just because the the market was so awful people were so awful and to stand up again and make another prediction was hard yeah absolutely and Al like uh in September October last year I had Jordi Alexander the co-founder of SEL Capal good friend of mine now uh he was very right about Luna yeah super right and I remember he got kind of known for being one of the few ones were basically saying out loud Luna I think it was on Bank list before Luna crashed not saying Luna is just saying hey this might happen be careful so he was very about Luna which I got massively wrecked in right and then he's last September October on the podcast in newk seat and I'm like I knew he didn't like Solana or at least he was not very bullish sonana he said the ecosystem is great but the token is kind of like a meme coin because there's no fees the fees are too low Etc so it's not occuring so I'm there just switch like couple of two three months before like I switch 80% of my portfol in Sol I have this guy in front of me I'm like what do you think about uh Sana and I knew we would clip that and people would go would be angry right against him the Sana community so I'm like what do you think and he's like yeah you know like I think uh this is a is a great ecosystem Great Tech but the token doesn't really make sense and I'm there like I I know the guy was massively right about Luna where I got so and then I have like 80% of my portfol I'm like okay Chris R actually Chris ra and like I didn't do anything and like then I mean sometimes it's very hard because you always have some very smart people with different opinions right and you need to take them on board yeah you know it's hard when you when you have full conviction on a trade yeah your job is to be paranoid after that yeah but that's good actually that's a good learning from from I mean I'd say from Luna definitely it's anytime there's someone who say something really bad about your bag take them seriously try to understand why it doesn't mean change your mind but it means like take into account the fact that your your work It All Leads to you taking the BET you've now taken the bet you don't need to confirm to yourself all the time that I'm so right I'm so right you need to confirm that you're not wrong it's a very different mindset what could make you change your mind on Soul this cycle the only thing I think is if eth continues to outperform or not continues hasn't done so but but let's say it does ETF flows there's a new application that that yet again ratchets up E's use case um maybe it's the real world assets tray whatever it is M um other than that you know everything goes up sana's earliest stage it should go up more it's a standard risk cycle there's limited risk in salana now there's much more risk when you go to earlier stage tokens because you just don't know if they're going to get adoption so it's really have I got my money in the wrong beted I mean what happens if Bitcoin beats everybody this cycle right it's possible of course it's possible my job to be paranoid of I've got the wrong asset allocation you said before if you are 30 years old you should keep your money in crypto and add in the weak moments right and actually you're not 30 years old but that's kind of your plan right yeah but what does that mean concretely if you're mostly in Soul do you der risk into eth or Bitcoin as we transition into macro fall season in 2025 or you just say like you've done last cycle the BET was eth I keep my eth and next cycle I will have seen the two or three token sonava that went crazy and I'll switch into that um that's what I did was that the right answer probably would have done marginally better if I switched into Bitcoin um in the end I don't think it matters just don't leave the space if you do do it for lifestyle um what's really hard what I've learned is I've gone through this before because I've been involved in this place for a very long time I've held through Cycles I've traded cycles and I figured out if I just held my original bet which was much smaller I would have been five times better off if I had just added every time we had a bare market and assumed I missed the bare Market Low by 30 or 40% i' made 25 times as much money so this time around I added furiously between June and October those two dates in 2022 and I was at all-time highs in my p&l well before markets were that's what it means when you compound and just do that one thing and it'll change your life but most people can't they they've been taught that the draw down is a terrible thing but if you're not going to take the money out and you don't need it for school fees or the house don't take the money out the other thing is let's say you've you've you've turned your 10 grand and it's now worth 250 Grand okay when you take it out let's say you you're a genius you get the high the market Falls 90% you will not put the same amount of money back because you're now you have that that mindset that you had with salana there's no it might go to zero right that is so pervasive that you will only put a smaller bet in you can't do it and people think they can oh I'll just take my 250 Grand and then I'll just buy at the bottom and I'm going to be the richest person in the world no no no won't happen that way yeah I mean the Assumption here obviously is people have a daily job that provides them with enough money to survive or they have a business this crypto thing didn't become their entire life or way to dream to make it in the short term which is actually the case for a lot of people right A lot of people I think more than we probably want to admit this thing becomes their life right and they might even leave quit their job like this kind of kind of classic like moment where you start to say maybe it's starting to become a bit risky is when people say I left my job to trade crypto actually two weeks ago I met a woman and she said oh my husband now he left his uh Dev op engineering job to trade Soul fulltime I'm like I'm like okay maybe it's still early but like I'm just going to is a little exactly like because more and more of this is going to happen right and that's when people start to make the wrong decisions and uh whereas and this up because they're too they're too involved too too all in I don't realize I need to have something to cover my life expense if I want to have this 10year View and compound but I've seen the power of this thing my sister-in-law she had a 401k and it was in 2020 she's like what do I do with this doesn't go anywhere and I'm like just put it all in crypto she did and now suddenly she's got a really quite decent sum of money for her I mean you know several times her annual salary now in this that's amazing I was speaking to somebody who used to work at real vision and she just dropped in you know how how much money her and her husband had made I mean he was a science teacher and they were they had made really quite a lot of money you know in ordinary person terms I'm like you can understand why people become obsessed because it like it belittles everything you've ever done beforehand all the work you've ever done and then you start thinking it all of how much work can I do to put money into this bet because it's the best bet of all time it's probably what happened also to this gentleman you met yesterday evening who thanked you now I don't know whether that's a sign of huis that he's kind of semi- retti he didn't say I was going to trade crypto my guess is he paid off his house and he could do whatever he wanted to do maybe he could be a private tutor whatever it was but he didn't have to do his job that's really enabling but I I never forget I was on holiday in 200000 in 2000 and I was in I can't remember somewhere in the Caribbean and I met this guy at the airport and we were taking a bus to the hotel and I'm like what do you do and he was like he was a AT&T cable fitter something like that you know for when they were laying broadband and he's like yeah but really what I do is I I day trade stocks and I he goes I've just put in my 50 Grand kitchen that back in 2000 50 Grand kitchen was a expensive kitchen that's probably like 150 Grand kitchen I'm like really he's like yeah that's you know I make all my money doing that and then I I start to realize okay this is now insane where the guy fitting cables is trading and it's going to happen again of course he again it will again and again in financial markets just like in life everything is a cycle we talked about liquidity Cycles before Cycles apply to crypto too I had meow the found of Jupiter on this podcast a few weeks ago and he said I think I'm meeting him tomorrow actually exactly yeah tomorrow morning 11: a.m. well you know this already you're stalking me because because I'm going to be there oh I'm gonna be there um he said the super cycle thesis is the most toxic in the space in late 2021 we had the FED increasing rates and then the subsequent blowups of Luna Celsius block 5 FTX and many other actors in the space what do you think is likely to create the top in this current cycle it's always the same thing and where do you think the subsequent blowups will come from it is always the same thing it's the liquidity cycle stupid when the FED start taking liquidity or the ECB or the Chinese or the Japanese that's when you got to get out of the water if you want to or you just accept it's all going to go down You' start saving as much cash as possible to buy that dip so it's always the same thing what meow says there was the FED kind of came in earlier in the cycle than we thought M and that's what truncated the cycle so I just think it's look quity stupid the moment they say hey we want to take some drinks away from the party get out of the party where where is the blow up happening in the space that's a question I I think about a lot and when I say these things now they're not because I think they're going to happen I'm saying them because I acknowledge them to be risks I look at the re staking yields yeah the Athena and the ethery and all of these most people say yeah but it's in the smart contract it's fine I'm like I always worry about where the yield comes from who is facilitating that yield and why will they blow up so almost at every Point things blow up because there's one borrower who's too big long-term Capital Management three arrows Capital right and you don't know MH everybody's so busy borrowing from them that they don't realize that it's all One customer so there's that and we don't know who that is going to be the one weak point that I look at at the market because I think people kind of understand as somebody in the reaking liquid staking cycle will blow up right lios concerns me I know generally speaking it's pretty safe but pretty safe is not good enough considering it's got 20% of all eth right so that would be I would be paranoid about that even though it might be the best run business it's got diversification of validators everything the one that scares the out of me that I absolutely love is derit why it's 90% of the entire option Market the concentration of options in that that Panamanian exchange right they're good people they don't run a bad business but if somebody somewhere blows up and that exchanges Insurance Fund and all the other stuff somehow fails we got to 10 of a mess everybody lays off their risk there and this is not the Chicago border trade is it the reason why you're not buying call options on Solana or one of the reasons um no the reason I'm not buying call options on salana is is because if I buy out of the money calls and they end up out of the money I'll have lost money and if I just stick in Sal I won't lose money yeah you know it's like so simple it's so simple is is a learning from 2021 and at the end of the cycle I might well switch all my salana for call options and then you can only lose the premium but at this point in the cycle I know somebody will nail it with call options and make 10 times as much money as I've made out of the trade I just don't want to lose my soul because it matters it's super interesting the part about Dairy bit because that's what we need right we need people who think because the more we print money out of thin air in crypto like this crazy PN the more we forget about all this stuff right so when you speak to the Athena people we're actually releasing a guy from ath this week I spoke to a guy the other day great guy super smart financial markets I had this conversation with him I'm like your job is to be absolutely paranoid because people are getting the yield from the options premiums yeah and it's again it's not going to be Thea's fault or ether F's fault or whoever his fault there'll be connections we didn't see that's always the case and then before you know it's bringing down something bigger than you ever imagined and it will happen somewhere it will happen it will happen because because every time you build leverage on a 70% volatility asset you will blow up all of the leverage and what's annoying is people don't learn this the builders don't learn this and they're going to blow up retail again and people are going to say see this space cannot be controlled because they're making a fundamental mistake of trying to build leverage on a 70 Vol asset and also if you think about the essence of a bull market I mean this Cycles it's that a bull market is an accum is B some people becoming optimistic more and more people taking on more and more leverage business is more and more leverag everything going ballistic and at some point there is too much leverage in the system and then we have a deleveraging event right and it's happening all the time and it's going to happen again it's that and you try and warn people you try to talk to people I try and advise these people and I speak to them I've seen this for 35 years it always works the same way I beg them I beg people not to get involved they won't listen yeah learning by doing learning by getting wrecked at the end of the day that's what happens if you don't have previous trfi experience it's going to happen to you yeah I know don't this up don't this up but everybody will is trying their best to it up yeah and they don't realize it but the industry is also built in a way for people to it up again we say air drops points leverage it's just like a gamification of everything for people to but also the capsule cycle is so far so brutal that we clean up messes very fast and we move on so there is an ability to fail fast even fail big and the space learns every time and moves forward it still makes mistakes but it adapts and learns every time so it's pretty clever in how fast the capital cycle is but as but as an as an individual your job is you still need to have some chips to play the game right if you get completely wrecked you're out of the game and you can never come back right and you're going to hate this industry and you're going to miss out on this amazing so you say it with coinbase accounts so coinbase had at Peak 109 million accounts M there's the were at bottom 9 million actives so it's 90% drop in active users I don't know where it is now I'm guessing it's about 12 million so you can see the wrecked ratio those people will come back and once we start to see more than 50% active accounts then we need to worry again that we've got too many people into the space the overall number of accounts will increase but it's that active account you know people talk about the coinbase app I about to ask right now it can't happen because 110 million people have already downloaded it yeah so it's going to be the number of active accounts that's I think the real measure here what's your biggest learnings and lessons from the two 20 2021 crypto cycle I still didn't realize even though I was pretty much all in I still hadn't realized how powerful this thing was going to be um even know I've talked about this being the largest macro Trend since 2013 the longer I spend looking at it the more I learn the whole everything code thesis didn't come till 2022 23 23 March 20123 the whole debasement thing only came in 20 end of 2021 so I realized how little I know when I still know a reasonable amount and I've been around this space for a very long time and the more I the more I learn um I've also learned well I knew this was going to be the case anyway I didn't learn it but the publicness of me um is a really difficult thing I have a have a part on that actually there are lots of upsides to have a strong personal brand and being famous but it also comes with a fair share of downside one of them is fud fear uncertainty and doubts when you're wrong or worse when we when some elements are taken out of uh context because fud creates a lot of attention and some for the fs and the online world it's all about competing for attention right so some guys called you R rug pal online you know think about is good because of your e price targets last cycle there was also we talk about that before there was also the lunam that you weren't directly uh exposed to but that your ex- business partner Remy was on this podcast couple of years ago got hurt pretty badly and as I said for the record I was a I had dun on the podcast I was a big Luna Bull and I got got massively wrecked on Luna so the question is obviously not about being right or wrong because we all will be wrong sometimes my question is about fud fear uncertainty and doubts how do you deal with fud whether it's Justified or not when you built a massive influence in crypto and in your investing space I didn't intend to I I just didn't go out of my way to create this I didn't want to do this but I just found I just happen to be one of the clearest communicators maybe it's the English accent I don't know what it is and so it just happened and it happened over time you know if you look at my Twitter following over time it it it grew over time when I sold out of Bitcoin in 2017 I got a lot of hatred I went back and checked some of the tweets from that period I mean there was some real angry people and it wasn't that that much of an influence them but Twitter was smaller then I never expected this or wanted this but it's where I find myself and so I try and explain to people I'm not a guru that I am fallible but at the heart of 2020 3 22 and 23 there was some people people who are truly awful mhm um particularly some people from the macro World some of them have subsequently blown up I don't I don't ever call these people out I don't ever say anything I just kind of absorb it and try and distance myself from it so when it gets really bad I'm not in there fighting because that gives them the one thing they want attention so I won't refused to give them attention um but yeah 2020 early 2023 was just it was awful awful um how do you deal with that concretely every day right for example Meo from Jupiter they launch Jupiter I don't remember two three months ago 10 plus billion valuation massive F he got destroyed completely um and we talked about that he gave like a kind of like three things he's doing but one of them was like man you just go to sleep like concretely when there's this massive the first thing I do I go to sleep what what what did you do I get to sleep easily but I wake up at 3:00 a.m. and then you're alone with your own Horrors um I learn with the horrors the best thing to do is realize that your your most irrational self is the 3:00 in the morning self so I go and write it down go and have a cup of chamomile tea or something try and calm down write it down get out of your head the crazy thoughts you can go back to bed you generally can get back to sleep but December no January my wife was climbing mountains I was on my own and I was stressed out my brains and I was being attacked and everything else a friend of mine who lived in Spain uh did yoga with her every morning and I was canceling all my yoga classes and I do it over Zoom she's like what's going on I'm like just it's a show she's like right I'm going to get on a plane tomorrow and I'm going to sort your life out force me to do yoga every day every morning um you know kind of mass out stuff different stuff she's you know and two weeks of just getting back on that got me back on track um so it's it's going back to some sort of routine even though it's the hardest bloody thing or going to Nature is the way that you can get away from it cuz you realize that that that's just all electronic noise of those weird people on that small little screen screaming and shouting at you um also just going out meeting people helps you know particularly when you've got real hatred from some just terrible people online and then you go to others and they're like I know you've really helped me I'm like so I'm not the worst person in the world and taking you on this terrible journey and you're all wrecked and you're all they're like find me those people it's like find me the actual people who didn't understand that you bought calls on eth when you find out who they are and people have even shown me the kind of the circles of who these people were they weren't even involved in my world there were people looking for somebody to bring the fud on H did you try any ayurvedic thing or TCM or other things because you said like there's this woman who like is into yoga she probably brought some hey you can do some Reiki or some acupuncture yeah I did all of all of that kind of stuff uh meditation walking is what really works for me walking a beach in bare feet it's a the bare feet thing on the beach yeah yeah it's it's a huge thing uh and doing that every day every morning or walk in the park whatever it doesn't matter uh those things uh ashang Ganda which is a Indian absolutely which is super helpful for sleep for me that was a game changer for me um on the flip side drink too much wine in the evening to try and switch my that's an interesting one but the problem is it wakes me up h so I can go to sleep then it wakes me up cuz the wine is we're drinking wine here yeah we all love like a good uh red wine you love wine but there is a thin line between hey I'm doing that because I enjoy it or hey I'm doing that because it makes me forget things right at the end of the day right yeah which you can very easily fall into because it feels good well if if if you think of the end of the day you're kind of spiky you have a couple glass of wine and like you're kind of softened and as you say you know you see other people go down that slope where it's if you're not careful um it becomes a an issue yeah um but yeah but you know it is a great thing what self- polies me is if I drink too much I wake up in the middle of the night um so that's even worse so it's a fine balance you understand the leverage of media for your company since 2014 but you also understand the personal branding game since a long time and you even you know despite all this kind of F that happened and you feeling really bad early 2023 you decided to double down on this um everything code thesis and on the personal brand Journey uh with the your YouTube channel called R pal the journey man like much more active on Instagram everywhere right it's not only a Twitter thing it's an everything thing right why do you focus so much on personal brand it wasn't a choice it was a real Vision member who's a global macro investor subscriber who came to see me in the Cayman ISS he happened to be just a small amount okay to filling it yeah um yeah it's a strong one um he happened to be from Silicon Valley one of the big I don't want to dox him one of the biggest firms running Innovation and growth amazing guy so I'm like come to one of our board meetings just come and talk to us so anyway he dropped the thing I didn't expect I expect him to talk about AI applications and other stuff and where to go to the platform he's like listen your problem is top of funnel the top of funnel is you the sooner you realize that the better it is I'm like really he's like yes I said well what does that mean he goes you need to start your own YouTube channel part of real Vision but people want to find you and we fought for two hours over dinner over it I'm like no don't I don't want to do this he's like well for the sake of real vision for the sake of the people you're trying to help it's the best way so I just did it so and then I realized I had to do it and it's it's what's hard is where does real Vision finish and where do I begin MH I don't like that pollution it's not like I Own 100% of real Vision but it's what it is but that's the 2024 World that we live in right people follow thought leaders yeah and then you have a business in the back in the back end to kind of capitalize on the personal brand and everything right but we C can can a business be massively successful today without one of the leaders or the leaders building a big personal brand yes if the product is essential for example I mean who are the people who built slack I don't know don't really care it's a product that we all use at work or whatever it may be right so it's not necessarily about foundaries but it helps because every company is a media company and attention attention is everything it is Upstream of every single thing tension is what creates religions and governments and humans and love and everything so attention is Upstream of everything and in this day and age the largest attention capture on Earth is YouTube absolutely Why YouTube versus Instagram or Tik Tok people don't realize is Instagram and Tik Tok are fleeting moments of attention on YouTube I can go on Tom Bilo's podcast and get three million people to listen to everything 3 million and it's going to be there in five years so there's G be many more people who maybe don't know you yet who can just get back to that later on yeah whereas on Instagram or Twitter they they will never see the content you posted today in two years it's lost in the mix yeah although AI is going to change some of that you know like I use grock on Twitter it's actually pretty useful most people underuse it I just use it as my kind of Twitter search new sech it's actually really good so that's how I found my tweets back in 2017 interesting it's super quick at doing that so yeah it's actually AI is going to help us sort out the world okay I'm always going down the feied like man yeah I know okay get a gr okay okay sorts it out attention is everything yeah let's talk about the r memes that are not so we talked about your future before we talked about the crypto super massive black hole Yeah there's two other real memes that are not I hold on I also I was the one who started pristine collateral yeah the dollar Wrecking Bull by bonds wear diamonds all of these that are now in common language like dollar wrecking ball common language pristine collateral all the Bitcoin Maxes use this I came up with that in 2020 so before we go into a bunch of like the memes that are not why are memes so important in today's world mimetics is just storytelling storytelling is everything humans tell each other stories but what memes have done is that bell curve distribution a meme number go up money printer go bur right that they're so magical they're like one of these AI models that can compress down on your mobile phone but has all of the world's internet on it how but that's what a meme of that sort does it can tell you the answer it doesn't have to tell you that it's analyzed the entire internet or all of the analysis of all of crypto business cycle analysis the history of money a history of society and everything that falls into this space that gets you to reach the conclusion the number go up or money printer go B That's The Power of a meme if it's a true mean particularly in this space it is a shrunken file of an enormous amount of information that you don't need to see it's like a zero knowledge proof you don't need to see what's behind it but you know it's for real so I have two additional re ra ra memes that are not that I would like to talk about the first one is written on your T-shirt don't this up yeah what does that mean so I had learned from the last cycle that even if you're vaguely vague about how to navigate the space people will a get it wrong it up so badly and then they'll blame me for it there's a bit of self-preservation in this so I'm like okay I'm going to make it a meme that is super clear I'm going to launch an nft that you put in your salana wallet that looks at you and says there's a little video file of me saying don't this up and it's basically don't use Leverage don't fomo self- custody uh and keep most of your assets in the major tokens and just simple rules of thumb that don't lose your crypto don't lose your crypto don't lose your crypto don't lose your crypto you know if the mega trend is going from Two and a Half trillion to 100 trillion honestly you betting on you know some random mem coin is not the best way to capture that Trend you might be able to get a bit of that right capture the Trend first then you can trade around it a bit but if you do not capture that Trend you will have done the opposite of the message if I keep telling people and again this is this means a lot it's like this is the biggest opportunity don't come to me and tell me they made money and you didn't literally there are thousands of high quality people into this space trying to help none of us have all the answers don't expect us to be gurus but we are trying to help we want everybody to come with us it's also self-interested because the more people that come with us the more people succeed the more the space is valuable so we're in all incentivized so we want people not to fail and I don't want people to come to us and say well you you guys got it all right like I've given you every toll I've given you literally thousands of hours of video I've shown you where I've got it wrong I've shown you where I've got it right just be part of that Trend two and a half trillion 100 trillion don't get thrown off how do we get 200 trillion for the crypto asset class when the S&P 500 is 50 trillion today so this is a unique asset class because it's money it's TR it's the rails for money it's probably the rails for the financial system like equities should be tokenized more efficient use of um better technology efficient Capital so that's equities bonds derivatives what are derivatives particularly OTC derivatives they're just need contracts well that's nfts okay so the financial system clear okay well the derivative Market is 1.4 quadrillion now it doesn't mean it's 1.4 quadrillion usage of the underlying token you'd need but that's a lot of value and volume that's going to happen so that's the real world asset side of the equation then there's the culture side we talked about memes memes are valuable what of what is the value of the culture of Disney Disney's what a1200 billion dollar company the value of Disney culturally trillion two trillion it's gigantic the value of pop stars the value of all sorts of things sports teams we haven't known how to realize these These are intangibles so those kind of things then there's just the simple use cases for things like ticketing straightforward all tickets should nfts particularly hotel rooms you know plane tickets all of that kind of stuff people it's really interesting I watch a lot of people particularly the finance people who who get crypto they're like yeah real world assets that's the big thing I'm like yeah it's huge I get it add together all of the financial services companies in the Western World all of them and they add together all of the culture companies and for that that's Google because of YouTube and WhatsApp that's meta X um you could add lvmh you can add you know the Disney the media companies the sports teams the music everything else dwarfs the finance industry kills it just a number of ads that are served on social media which is just attention monetization hundreds of billions of dollars a day and there is a lot of today's unrealized gross domestic product basic you're saying in the attention economy that's right it's huge so it's not captured yet by any Financial mean but it's even if it is it's not captured by you and I it goes to other people but a lot of this is not captured so we we've seen and again maybe a good example maybe a bad example we don't know I'm passing judgment but I he um igy iselia who's yeah is it her building the mother yeah it's not her it's not her is basically K in general yeah then there is igy Iggy but what's her surname there's two different or Isa yeah she's a yeah that is tokenized culture m does it last we don't know does hers last I don't know but if Taylor Swift tokenized absolutely her economy how big is that crazy her economy is so big it moved the US economy when she was touring it added to GDP measurably two things talking about that one is like a shout out to go Singapore government what they've done with a knew Taylor Swift would come to Asia they bought all the right for the concert so everyone would come to Singapore to watch the concert and she would not give any concert anywhere else in Asia which is pretty crazy and show how Forward Thinking the go like uh the other thing was a few years ago you talked with the yatsu on your podcast which I also had on the podcast couple of weeks ago and you talked about um uh Universal basic equery we talk about that but you also talked about have a blank um social tokens yes what we're seeing now with these mem coins is kind of that but not really what was expected right do you think these kind of like meme coins celebrity mem coin are a version of that yes or even might be that this is the starts this is the experimentation this is the wild west this is where people try stuff like we saw with nfts last cycle H we don't know where these are going to lead to all of these are going to come together in culture and what we're seeing is Pioneers scammers frontier people testing it so I think it's real we're not there yet but I know that social tokens and having tokenized economies and being able to earn income in an AI World from participating in communities is the most human thing you can possibly do you just mentioned nfts I think I saw a tweet yesterday from anom was asking are nfts dead and then there was basically two choice that you could say no they're not they're coming back or something like mcoin super cycle or like everything's about mcoin right now right and actually the answers were interesting 55% or 60 were thinking mcoin so basically n are dead 40 45 thinking no they're coming back which is actually very bullish nft right because people are staring to not believe in them anymore you called nfts trophy assets what's a trophy asset and what does that mean for all the people who thinks who think that nfts are dead so firstly on the broad trend of nfts it was culture being tokenized creating communities right that was a test case for can we have an identity for a commun community that is unique to us 99% of those projects go to zero let's see what happens to Bor apes or punks or a bunch of these things right pudgy Penguins pudgy Penguins yeah but let's see right it's interesting yeah what we can do with those nfts the cultural stuff and the trading speculation has now gone to memes will memes out perform perform nfts this cycle for sure because it's captured everybody's attention doesn't mean that they're going away it just means they're going to morph into the next thing and we will see but what I realized again it's these moments I'm really lucky I I get to meet people I get to invited to stuff and I learned something I didn't think I was going to learn so I got invited to private event at people studio in January and always owned nfts but I hadn't really gone all in and I was at people's studio and I was presenting why nft is a macro because there's a bunch of artists who are feeling about themselves cu the nft prices are down I then showed in the prices versus Fine Wines Rolex watches the business cycle all of this and they're like oh it's not me being a abely it's actually part of a cycle and I'm like yeah and here's the Bitcoin eth cross should start out performing at some point this year everything will be fine don't worry just keep doing what you do and they were very thankful for me explaining this because they weren't sure um but I was there observing them and the people there there's only 30 people so and there was SES and Christies and Mom and just like the players of the art industry and I can see that these people were the chosen ones and I could also see because I'd seen this previously uh is that the space is incredibly small everybody knows everybody and it's magic you're one degree of separation from a cultural movement of a Quantum size during the largest fastest generation of wealth in all history and they're literally in front of you you speak to them on Twitter every day they're looking for your validation I'm like wow this is like being around warhol's Factory this is like being in England in the early 2000 late 90s early 2000 where every music band and Damen Hurst and Tracy Emon and dance music everything was happening came from England it's like I realized it and then I just seed it all down and I'm like okay what are the what matters here there's like the generative artist and there's the cultural artist and these guys hadn't really organized themselves in this way and I'm like okay so I'm speaking to be Mike winlan and he always talks about x copy and how x copy got him into the space I'm like okay so x copy is the OG speak to everybody x copy is the OG the unknown guy from London and people became the famous one so you've got the most culturally relevant artists in the world x copy and be all their prices had collapsed and then there's the generative artists which are more for art history you know how AI in works with fenzer and ringers and stuff like that and I'm just like I love cultural movements culture and money and re ution when they come together are valuable there's two main points here the first one is it's a cycle and you compare it to luxury wines and Rolexes or patex yeah meaning it comes later in the cycle corre it's going to be performing well which is why all these artists they're like ah thank God we're not we're in pain but it's going to be it takes the eth economy to be a new alltime highs like same with Fine Wines and all of that people need have excess money yeah excess money you put them into trophy assets the other thing is and it's so right like when you said your one degree con of connection like I've been thinking like that every freaking day since the last year because even me nobody I'm doing this podcast I mean now the the network is great and everything but I'm like for example py Penguins I know you own a Bo board ape and a and a crypto Punk right yeah a wed guy and an m me and bunch of culturally relevant stuff so last year luk anet on on the podcast P for e and he's there and he's like telling me ah we have I mean now it's 20 billion views on gefy and we're building this business we selling all these toys and all these plushies and then we're doing all these things and and I'm like think about that exactly I have this guy in front of me P was the the the the nft was four E I think I'm like Mega bullish on the dude and I'm like Kevin take a step back if you don't go home now and buy some pudgy Penguins you had the guy in front of you he not even a degree ofation he's in front of you and then I'm thinking ah all the other people had on the podcast big people who based here they all have py penguins profile pictures or some like sometimes it's just so in front of you that you don't even see it right and that's the crazy chance that we have in this industry which is we have access whether it's someone who's already big like you or is someone who is much smaller like me if you're trying to do something good you have access to the people who are building this thing right and they're in front of you and they're telling you everything and it's your choice to make not only listen but to take action on it and it's so underrated it's crazy it's crazy crazy and this will not possessed this is Magic it won't happen until 10 years time everyone would have made too much money will be too important be too Diversified there' be too many people I can't express the magic of this moment in time it's like why do people love the music of the 70s because in the same year you'll seen the Stones lead Zeppelin Fleetwood Mac The Eagles blah blah all tore at the same time this is what we've got going on and it won't happen again and it's part of the you know just don't up this it's it's all in front of you and people remember these times for the rest of their lives they honestly will and they will want momentos from that I have on my bathroom wall my program from live a I was at live a in 1985 probably the single most important concert in history I was there that program is priceless for me the X copies the be they're going to be Priceless to people you know people every day finishes the day with the internet comments of the day that's how you need to see him we're in a so you get it first thing in the morning like I saw the one last night and it was like I think it was called Big Balls yeah he's a cat with the balls I just saw it before roaring Kitty exactly he's got the headband on with a massive pair of balls and a bunch of rats in front and he does that every single day he ties the bow on the internet for the day and says good night everyone this is the internet for the day but that's legendary yeah and he's there every day you can chat to him on Twitter he's the nicest guy in the world and you can just send a comment and he'll reply to you if he's not too busy it's it's crazy but sometimes it's really hard because we're so not used to that right just thinking like we're thinking these people are kind of Out Of Reach and everything but this is really where we're talking about that before it's not crypto going mainstream is mainstream coming into crypto and crypto is that space where if you are you have platform that's where you build some social proof these celebrities or people will come to you or you'll have a chance to talk to them or you know have them on your podcast or whatever just because you're in crypto it happen nowhere else I can't publicly talk about but some of the people I have met um that I got introduced to I mean the world's most famous people yeah yeah and they come saying okay tell me about this there's one guy famous musician I have have I set up a whole series of educational talks with over Zoom I'm like okay I'm going to get up to speed and his whole team up to speed and so it's very cool the last uh real memee that that is not that I'd like to talk about is we have it on this table it's the banana it's the banana exactly where about here this is the point where about here so you not only started a meme but you actually became the meme right and you're embracing it what the banana Zone and why did you come up with the banana Zone meme so Julian Bell and myself were writing Global macro investor and we were looking at Q4 2023 and we're like pre-election cycle years liquidity everything means that generally things should go bananas in Q4 so we wrote a article and we said we called it the banana Zone because things go bananas cut to I Don't Know by about March June March April maybe March we had started applying it to say okay we've got that was the banana zone for that quarter but we've got the actual banana Zone which is when liquidity drives everything crazy and then you start seeing those wonderful charts of Bitcoin each cycle they kind of do this they do this and then they do this that happens to be that and it's when things go bananas and people this up because they lose their minds they fomo into everything it's when it's when no laws apply anymore the law of the banana rules all and it always happens after the harving which is kind of here there's a bit of chopping around and then as we start heading into the US election between June and August prices start going vertical doesn't mean we don't get these sharp Corrections in the middle but things go vertical and we will lose our minds if we are having this conversation in nine months time we will have we'll be fighting with ourselves to try and maintain the discipline that we've been trying to teach ourselves because the banana Zone will be happening and it it just caught everybody attention because a it explains a lot right that explains my entire macro thesis that I spent two and a half hours explaining and I could have spent six hours explaining is all in that chart it is also says finically everybody's hopes and dreams and it's about to happen I hope so because I will never be allowed on the internet again fair enough you know yeah go God forbid if I'm wrong oh the horror but I have taken told people to not take any leverage so but anyway it's going to require a few additional bottles of wine he doesn't a lot more walking on the beach yeah that is the issue is it's become everybody's hopes and dreams that's why it caught on so fast yeah so you're king of memes now now that we understood why meme are so important what's your view on coins attached to memes or so-called meme coins uh I flip around on this I I see the value I don't have an issue with the meme having value I kind of prefer nfts for some of this because you can have distinct imagery around certain memes I think it's a it's a blunt tool for some of this so I don't think the mean coin cycle will be as big next cycle very interesting I do think that some memes survive and they can create value by getting enough attention that then people want to build on the network so bnk they're trying to build on that Network Doge there's always the fact that Elon will build on the network Network um Sheba enu they're building on the network M so if you value a network by the number of active users this is how I broke it down to create meta's law to understand how to Value um crypto protocols or tokens number of active users value transacted so you can have some tokens like salana lots of small transactions but a lot of them so the total value is high or Bitcoin much less transactions larger larger in volume that and active that's all you need to know in the space that's what adoption looks like memes only have one side so if retail leaves it goes to zero if retail stays it maintains value do retail stayed if you build on it you have a potential chance of using that attention and moving it into something of more value that's how I think about it now you're right when you talk about social tokens this is the experimentation in how to create tokenized economies there's a lot in this before we talked about your E Trade of last cycle and your soulle trade of this cycle MH do you still have water no one more thanks so we talked about uh e trade of life cycle Soul trade of this cycle mhm right which you both nailed but you actually said this one is the easy one the hard one is to find the 2020 21 solava or Matic right polygon that you also call the next Soul right there is a reason why I didn't talk about that before but I talk about now when we talk about memes what new projects have a shot at being de Cycles 500 to 1,000x and so my question because we're talking about meme could this cycle solax be a frog Pepe a dog with and the cat pop cat and the reason why I'm saying that is I've heard you and many people talk about the new layer ones Mona we actually also had uh ke on this podcast C uh or maybe some layer tools or right the problem is there've been a lot of conversations which make sense about the VC game which is this kind of the low float High fdv game right which prices out a lot of The Upside for the retail so if a monad launches at I don't know 10 20 30 billion what's the upside on that that retail can have whereas my thinking obviously is a very dble thinking is what are the ones that this cycle started at a low market cap and that gave a chance to everyone and the last cycle Solana was also Solana you could do 500x liquid right I think was 50 cents for after two months after the co March crash 50 cents for some time and then it went to $250 right so instead my thinking is we're thinking about something similar layer one Etc but like there is a different game with the VC game and no that's the risk curve some of those will absolutely wildly outperform everything why because they're further at the risk curve it was that was punks last time that there was a bunch of those that did stupid Returns on top of eth's returns don't forget I mean I think I think punks did 2 2,000% Returns on top of eth's returns but this is La La Land so that will happen again what I'm talking about is what is going to be anointed in the blockchains the serious blockchains I'm still not sure about this whole fdv thing I'm not sure it matters I think anybody can grow out out of evaluation if you've got adoption if you haven't you'll be crushed by it the game is all about adoption if one of these high fdv coins I'm on the foundation of SOI got it's that high fdv problem if they create traction as salana had a higher FTV than ethereum beforehand it's it's a function of where we are as you get more adoption I just think we think about well where could a new layer one go we think well eth's here Souls here this is the this that's all wrong they're all going up five or 10x from here right we're all wrong because we're thinking in linear terms so the next next layer one will'll have a 3400 billion valuation maybe 500 billion there's plenty of money for everybody to a 50x from 10 billion basically can still do yeah yeah and it'll probably still go down 95% in the next bare Market but then out of those we'll find From the Ashes who's going to be the Phoenix and I don't know who is going to be the anointed ones we don't know there's five six seven eight out there that could be I don't know I have no idea you talk about ex copy and B MH in on the nft side what are your two or three favorite projects or teams in the space and why and obviously I'm not asking for coins or Price predictions but more about some teams that you believe have a shot to actually have a massive impact on the adoption of crypto in the next few years I don't know VC is not my thing I just wish everybody luck somebody will crack something big I don't know everything always looks good to me or all the things I don't understand tend to do really well I don't do VC at all because literally everything that looks amazing that to me generally tends to be terrible projects and everything that I think I don't understand that that makes no sense at all tends to be really good it's just not my thing so when you ask me what teams I don't know um I just hope I just wish well for everybody just you know everyone's hustling doing doing what they can do and that's great and I'm grateful for them you mentioned your wife before do you have kids no why I value Freedom mentioned it before I can move country I can travel I there's something that makes me shudder about Suburban life maybe the friends I grew up with who I love dearly just seeing how they're not lives never changed I've moved countries and I've done this I've done that doesn't make me better than them but I shudder when I think of suburban England even country living in a nice Country House in England the life I'm was supposed to have it it honestly makes me makes me feel sick and so there's something about taking the kids to school in the morning into the football game on the weekends and you go in your two we holiday to XYZ and you do this and you do that it's like that's not me it's not me you mentioned the suburb life in England but you could do the same in Cayman Island I guess yeah and gr Cayman I kept away from gr Cay for a while because it's more Suburban but it's still a tropical island it still takes a slightly weird person to go and live in an island like that so it is a bit Suburban for me it's not my ideal Place Little Cayman very different Little Cayman where got my other house is super super wild remote weird um yeah I don't don't like Saia what's your biggest prediction for next 12 months a picture is worth a thousand words I I didn't have to say anything else don't need to say anything R thank you so much thank you for taking almost two hours and a half of your pre precious time for doing this and thank you for spending so much time educ educating all of us and putting so much invaluable content out there for free there's an entire generation that I am part of that can now see hope and take action to unfuck themselves and you're playing a huge part in this and we're all super grateful to you and your amazing thank you I really appreciate it and I appreciate everything you're doing for the space as well we're all trying our best to try and help as many people and also capture the opportunity for ourselves and you know well them years are thank you okay I hope you enjoyed that it was quite a revealing interview you know I really Tred to give more of myself across you know how I think about the world you know the things that that matter to me um you know how I've been affected by things you know I think it was a it was an honest truthful interview that hopefully you got a lot out of and hopefully we know that everybody's hopes and dreams are in the banana Zone and I don't take that lightly and I know that I've been talking about it a lot and while you're watching this the crypto markets have been sideways and annoying but zoom out take time and understand that over time Network adoption effects effects in Technologies play out and this technology has a huge adoption anyway see you next time don't forget to sign up to the channel uh here on YouTube or come across to realvision realvision tocom it's free it'll honestly change your life it's set up to help you and your future anyway see you around next [Music] time it's a brilliant brilliant event and you'll come away with lots of new ideas and a better understanding of this incredible exponential [Music] world you get to speak to the smartest people people like you trying to figure this out but also the people on stage they're the [Music] experts so we get all of that all in one place in Singapore what more can you ask see you at token [Music] 2049 we hope you enjoyed the video at real Vision we help you understand the complex world of Finance business and the global economy with in-depth analysis from real experts Join the Revolution at realvision tocom