Transcript for:
Uber: Journey to Becoming a Self-Funded, Autonomous Leader

For the longest time, Uber was one of the largest private companies in the world. The company IPO'd in May 2019 and made history with the biggest first data loss in U.S. history. Yeah. Ouch. I remember that. And it's been a rocky start for investors. If you invested $10,000 in Uber at IPO four years later, you would have. Well, still a cool $10,000. And over that time, the S&P 500 returned 50%. But, you know, every company has its growth journey. In a previous video, we actually discussed the different stages of the lifecycle of a company, and we used Uber to illustrate a company in a self-funding phase. It's that tricky time when the company is just breaking even reinvesting in its growth and fine tuning its business model. And while some investors may perceive a sinking ship, others will focus on the unit economics and the long term potential of the business. So is Uber successfully evolving in its self-funding phase? Well, we got some answers in the latest earnings report. Right. We have got a packed video for you today. We'll cover Uber's past controversies, its business model, competition, growth strategy, its portfolio of investments, key performance indicators to watch a review of its financials and look at the company's long term targets. And by the end of this video, you'll know more than 90% of shareholders. So let's dive in Hey there. I'm Stephanie Tech, veteran engineer and creator. And I'm Bertrand, founder of App Economy Insights. from its inception. Uber has been no stranger to controversy, so much so that there is a TV series about them in various parts of the world. Taxi unions have protested Uber's perceived avoidance of laws and fees leading to conflicts and legal battles. Notably, Uber lost its operating license in London in 2017, but managed to secure it back in 2022. And back home in the US, a major point of contention emerged. Is an Uber driver, an employee or a contractor. This debate led to significant legal ramifications and was instrumental in reshaping the gig economy in 2017 was particularly tumultuous. Allegations of a sexist and hostile work environment were brought to light by a former female engineer. The ensuing scandal saw numerous top level executives depart. Founder Travis Kalanick faced immense scrutiny, culminating in his resignation in June 2017 under new leadership with Dara Khosrowshahi, former Expedia CEO. Uber has been working on transforming its corporate culture is keeping from the Iranian revolution. 78 hours journey from finance in New York to the helm of Uber is remarkable. Despite these setbacks, Uber has shown resilience. While the shadows of the past remain. Today's Uber aims to project a renewed commitment to ethics, transparency and community engagement. The company's culture has improved and was even voted as a best place to work in 2023. Uber started with a simple idea Push a button, get a ride in a first interconnected apps to go anywhere or get anything. The company uses a massive network to power movement from point A to point B, and unlike taxi companies, Uber doesn't own a fleet of vehicles. Instead, it revolutionized transport by connecting riders directly with drivers using their own cars. This lean approach drastically reduced overheads and allowed for rapid global expansion. The platform connects riders with drivers. Eaters with couriers and riders. And eaters are the end users of the service. Meanwhile, drivers and couriers are earning a living on the platform. Uber is partnering with Alphabet's Waymo to bring autonomous driving to its apps. But for now, Uber is all about drivers the same way Airbnb is all about hosts. We covered this in another video. Uber must maintain a large fleet of happy drivers on its platform to better serve riders. In this regard. Driver metrics have been up and to the right after the pandemic slump and are at an all time high well above pre-COVID. On the flip side of the marketplace, riders are showing excellent retention metrics. Well, we are creatures of habit, and riders tend to keep using Uber and spend more over time. Moreover, every new cohort shows higher engagement, which is bullish for the long term. Uber operates in a highly competitive landscape with direct and indirect competitors across its services. Yes. Uber's main competitors in the ride hailing space include Lyft in the US, Didi in China Market. Uber exited Ola in India and grab in Southeast Asia. Traditional taxi services and public transportation options also compete for customers. Bloomberg estimates Uber's market share at 76% in the US in the food delivery segment. Uber Eats competes with companies like DoorDash, GrubHub, Just Eat Takeaway and Deliveroo. There is also indirect competition from traditional food delivery services and grocery stores. Bloomberg share that market share in the food delivery services in the US, and Uber Eats, including Postmates that they acquired in 2020, holds a 25% market share behind DoorDash and its leading 65% market share. Okay. So how is Uber planning to grow? Well, its strategy includes expanding its services, as illustrated by Uber Eats and now Uber Health for health care organizations scaling its platform through global expansion, advancing autonomous driving capabilities through investments and partnerships, expanding into advertising. Uber's app with its captive audience, provides a lucrative platform for businesses that target consumers with personalize ads. And as a result, the company's entry into the advertising space could diversify its revenue and contribute to its growth prospects. That's right. Taking a page from Amazon's book, Uber's venture into advertising is bigger than you might think. They plan to make $1 billion in revenue from this segment in 2024, and it's a high margin initiative that has tremendous potential and could unlock more value from the existing engaged users. All right, let's discuss Uber's investments. The company has made many strategic investments representing over $5 billion in equity stakes, and these investments are currently beaten down in the challenging market conditions, but they could provide some upside over the long term. so these include, for example, Didi that we know as the Uber of China, we have grab mobility and delivery company in Southeast Asia. We have Aurora, a company born from the minds of self-driving tech experts from Tesla, Uber and Google And Aurora is at the forefront of autonomous vehicle technology with a boost from Uber's investment. Now, the company keeps track of two important performance indicators that indicate engagement on its platform. We have monthly active platform consumers who completed a ride or order in a given month and they grew 12% year over year to 137 million and trips grew 22% to 2.3 billion in Q2 2023 good for 25 million per day on average. And next, we have gross bookings. They are the total dollar value spent by end users on Uber apps. Excluding tips. It gives a sense of the scale of the platform. And gross bookings reached $33 billion in Q2 2023, growing 18% year over year. Management believes they can maintain double digit growth through three leverages. Number one is audience The number of people using Uber. Number two is frequency, how often they use it. Number three is price, how much riders spend. Each of these leverages may be in the single digit individual, but together they can sustain Uber's double digit growth. Now, look, Uber's take rate is a percentage of gross bookings for facilitating the connection between end users and drivers slash careers. In addition, Uber offers subscription services like Uber one, which includes benefits like price protection and priority service for a monthly fee. This recurring revenue stream has the potential to become a more substantial part of the business as subscriptions gain traction. And this model is comparable to Amazon Prime Now, if we turn to margins, we have the gross margin that used to be north of 50%, but has steadily declined toward 40% in the past two years. So the main reason for the decline in recent quarters is the uber freight acquisition of Trans Place at the end of 2021. Meanwhile, the operating margin has steadily improved since 2019 and it shows the clear path to profitability. Management breaks down the adjusted EBIT margins, excluding non-recurring costs and stock based compensation, among other things. And it's not a fair representation of the company's profitability, but it is useful to compare it to expectations over time. Now, look, this chart shows Uber's adjusted margin in 2021 in its top 20 markets. Uber spends a lot on acquisition, retention and engagement to grow gross bookings. But these top markets show that the company can make money at scale, thanks to solid unit economics in these tough markets. Management believes it's only a matter of time before the company starts making money. the Gap operating margin trend also fit this narrative. Now let's look at the most recent quarter. But before we do that, we have a small favor to ask. If you like this video, remember to subscribe to our channel to be the first to catch our weekly videos as they go live. And this is going to help us be discovered and bring more educational content to you So here is a bird's eye view of the income statement. The revenue is a result of gross booking and take rate trends. There are three main revenue segments on the left. First is mobility. It's the Uber ride sharing app. It makes 46% of overall gross bookings and has a 29% take rate. So delivery includes pick up or delivery of food, groceries and more. And it makes up 48% of overall gross bookings and has a 20% take rate. And finally, we have freight. It's the logistics segment connecting carriers with shippers. It makes 6% of overall gross bookings. Uber's revenue is already net of driver and merchant earnings. So the take rate can fluctuate based on incentives or discounts over time. So what can we learn here? Well, first, the mobility take rate improvement lately is misleading and due to a business model change in the UK in March. So excluding this change, it was mostly flat. Our focus should be on gross booking growth and margin trends. GROSS bookings grew 18% year over year in constant currency to $34 billion. Mobility grew 28% to $17 billion, and delivery grew 14% to $16 billion. Delivery gross bookings growth accelerated from 12% to 14% year over year, thanks to new verticals. Higher frequency also played a role and more on that in the second. The cost of revenue includes things like insurance, cost payment processing fee, data centers, networking expenses and some delivery cost. The company presents depreciation and amortization separately from the cost of revenue. profitability arrived sooner than expected. Earnings exceeded consensus and put the company on track to meet its FY 24 profitability target. And if we look for what's behind the margin improvement, you can see that Uber spent less on general and administrative and sales and marketing costs as a result of the recent layoff of about 3% of its roughly 32,000 workers. So if we switched to the adjusted dividend, it improved to 2.7% of overall gross bookings, and that compares to 1.3% in the prior year and 2.4% in the previous quarter. this indicates that Uber is driving efficiencies across cost and driver utilization. Management anticipates $5 billion and adjusted EBIDTA by 2024 and of course adjusted EBITA is a non-GAAP metric and that is misleading. For example, it includes stock based compensation, which is a real cost, but the trend is noteworthy. The long term targets provided at IPO included 45% adjusted EBIT margin for mobility. That's about 11% of gross bookings. And a 30% adjusted EBIT margin for delivery or about 4.5% of gross bookings in the near term management provided a clear goal for FY 24 continued gross bookings growth of around 22 to 25%, adjusted EBITA reaching 3% of gross booking versus 1.8% today. And this message has been consistent, and now we have a clear benchmark to measure success. That's right. And halfway through this three year plan, whoever is ahead on all metrics. Management remains committed to exceeding the 7% incremental margin previously forecasted. Yes. And the question is whether Uber can continue to scale efficiently amidst competition in the mobility and delivery space. And if it can, it could follow a trajectory that's similar to Amazon's. As Uber grows, its free cash flow, streamlines its cost efficiencies and explores more profitable verticals, it appears increasingly likely to realize CEO drivers consciously its vision of building a generational company. But keep in mind, regulators and competitors may not see it that way. Now, to dive deeper in another company that benefits from the gig economy, head over to our breakdown of how Airbnb makes money. So see you right there.