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Arcadian and rio & ERA

Oct 7, 2024

Lecture Notes: Money Miners Podcast

Overview

  • Discussion of potential mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the mining sector.
  • Guest appearance anticipated to discuss the possible Rio Arcadium merger.
  • Mention of previous unsuccessful BHP Anglo attempt.

Key Topics Discussed

Potential Rio Arcadium Merger

  • Excitement about the potential merger between Rio Tinto and Arcadium.
  • Arcadium's share price surged over 30% following market rumors.
  • Rio Tinto's confirmed talks with Arcadium valued between US $4 and $6 billion.
  • Concern from Arcadium's shareholder, Black Waddle, that the suggested deal undervalues the company.
    • Arcadium's share price recently much lower than earlier in the year.
    • Discussion of strategic fit for Rio Tinto, potential for growth in lithium market.

Arcadium's Market Position

  • Arcadium's complex history through various mergers resulting in a company focused on lithium.
  • Arcadium operates 10 sites with a diversified portfolio in lithium products.
  • Plans to increase production and diversify into other industries beyond electric vehicles.
  • Arcadium's financial projections include a significant increase in EBITDA by 2028.

Shareholder Concerns and Market Reactions

  • Black Waddle shareholder opposes the undervalued bid from Rio Tinto.
  • Suggestions for potential valuation adjustments to better reflect Arcadium’s projected growth.
  • Arcadium’s share price sharply increased 47% during the day of the news.
  • Market speculation about Rio Tinto's strategic interest and potential deal competition.

Rio Tinto's Strategic Interests

  • Interest in Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology.
  • Preference for brine projects over spodumene due to cost optimization.
  • Potential geographical advantages and regulatory considerations.

Other Market Developments

Burkina Faso Nationalization Concerns

  • West African Resources' stock plummets due to concerns of nationalization.
  • Government comments heightening fears about multinational mining operations.
  • Ongoing speculation about the stability of operating in certain regions of Burkina Faso.

Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) Entitlement Offer

  • Takeovers panel initially declined review of ERA's entitlement offer.
  • Minority shareholders push for review, resulting in a reconsideration by the panel.

Market and Strategic Implications

  • Discussion on potential future deals and the impact on lithium market.
  • Rio Tinto’s ongoing interest in lithium amidst fluctuating market conditions.
  • Broader implications for mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector, including shareholder dynamics and governmental influences on mining operations.