Overview
This lecture reviews the role of media in presidential elections, explains the primary and caucus systems, covers campaign organization, modern party conventions, and details how public opinion is measured and potential polling errors.
Media and Presidential Elections
- The media shapes voter perceptions by highlighting candidates and issues through news coverage, debates, and social media.
- Paid media includes campaign-controlled ads and promotions, ensuring the message is directed as intended.
- Free media consists of unpaid coverage like news stories and viral moments, which can be positive or negative.
- Campaigns use strategies like targeted messaging, debates, and media events to maximize positive coverage and reach key voter groups.
Primaries, Caucuses, and Campaign Organization
- Primaries are private voting events, either open (any voter) or closed (party members only), to select delegates.
- Caucuses involve public meetings where participants discuss and physically support candidates, also resulting in delegate selection.
- Presidential campaigns organize teams for fundraising, communication, outreach, and media relations to coordinate effective strategies.
- Modern national party conventions are ceremonial, confirming a nominee already determined by primaries and caucuses, and focus on party unity and launching the general election.
Measuring Public Opinion and Polling Errors
- Public opinion is measured through polls and surveys sampling a cross-section of the population to gauge attitudes toward candidates and issues.
- Representative samples and unbiased questions are crucial for accurate polling results.
- Biases can arise from unrepresentative samples, dishonest responses, question wording, and timing.
- Polling errors include small sample sizes, misjudging voter turnout, and failing to account for late opinion shifts, as seen in the 2016 election.
Key Terms & Definitions
- Paid Media — Campaign-purchased advertisements fully controlled by the candidate’s team.
- Free Media — Unpaid news and public coverage of a campaign, not directly controlled by candidates.
- Primary — A private voting process to select a party's candidate or delegates.
- Caucus — A public meeting for party members to discuss and choose candidates or delegates.
- National Party Convention — A formal event to confirm a party’s presidential nominee and unify support.
- Public Opinion Poll — Survey designed to estimate population attitudes on issues or candidates.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Review examples of primary and caucus processes in recent elections.
- Study common polling methods and recent polling errors for deeper understanding.
- Prepare for questions on campaign strategies and media impacts for the exam.