Hey everyone, welcome to the Investor Bet AFL round 13 betting trends preview. In this video, we're going to look at all eight games coming up this weekend in the AFL. A few teams with a buy, but still a pretty good round of eight bets. We're going really well this AFL season. We're winning over 61% of bets with over 100 plays so far this season at an average odds just under 180. And at the moment, we're also betting MLB and NRL from a sports perspective. MLB, we've won nine of our last 10 bets. Last month, we made over 50 units in horse racing. We're over 220 units profit for the year so far. So, everything's going really well. This is a really good round of AFL this weekend. Probably one of the best rounds so far this season. So, I'm excited. In this video, I'm going to preview each game. We're going to look at some of the stats and we're also importantly going to look at some of the betting trends for these sides. I'm going to share with you how I'm looking at approaching betting on these games for later in the week when I lock in my bets in the bet finders and best bets membership which is in the link in the description if you want to follow along with the exact plays. The first game on Thursday night, Western Bulldogs are favorites over Hawthorne. They opened a $152. They're backed into $144. The handicaps moved up from minus 11 and a half up to minus4 and a half and the total has stayed at 172 and a half for this game. Western Bulldogs are off the buy prior to that. Lost to Jalong by 14 points, losing no real admirers in that game. They still scored 113 points. They've scored 113 or more now in five of their past six games. It's going really, really well. and they have also conceded over 102 of their past three. Hawthorne will be without James Sicily for this game. Obviously, lineups aren't out yet, but that's already been announced. They've lost three straight, however, have played three top four sides in that process. Collingwood, Brisbane, and Gold Coast, but definitely not playing their best football compared to what they are producing earlier on in the season, particularly from a pressure perspective. given that's something that they need to get back here if they're going to be a chance of beating the Bulldogs. Hawthorne have won and covered the past three versus the Western Bulldogs. Eight of the past nines had been decided by 1 to 39 points. Last season they met twice. The first meeting was in round eight and Hawthorne won by seven points 98 to 91. That was the only game to go over the total of their last five meetings as well. And then in the finals, the first elimination final, Hawthorne eliminated the Western Bulldogs, winning that game 99 points to 62 as a six and a half point underdog. You see the market has grown considerably in favor of the Western Bulldogs since then. That's off the back of their recent form and Hawthorne going in the opposite direction. Western Bulldogs are the number one attacking side, averaging just under 105 points a game. Hawthorne currently ranked sixth in terms of attack and they're coming off scores of 60 or less in each of their last two games. So, it's really brought their average down. Defensively, Hawthorne are the slightly better side, averaging about four points less per game than the Bulldogs. Definitely agree with the Bulldogs being favorites in this game. Expect they do win. I am definitely aware that Hawthorne could dramatically turn their form around at any moment. There's issues in the side, but if they can turn it around, then these sides are very evenly matched. I' been looking at either the tri bet in this game. Either side to win by 1 to 24. Don't think it's going to be a blowout either way. Also think it will be highscoring. I think that 172 and a half total is a little bit low for this game even though four of the past five have gone under. Also, Hawthorne, four of their past five games have gone under. But Western Bulldogs game, six of their past eight have gone over. The way they play constitutes higher scoring matches and I think we'll see a game that if it does go over 172 and a half it's only going to go under by a very small margin and expect it goes over that number. Adelaide vers the Brisbane Lions. It's a really good game. Adelaide $158 minus 9 a half was the opening market here. They've drifted out to $162 and the total has stayed at 158 12 for this game due to the rain expected. that's going to impact this which is disappointing because in dry conditions this set up to be a really really good game. Adelaide playing really well. They beat the Swans by 90 points last week. They've scored 128 or more in each of their last two games only losing four games overall on the season. Brisbane Lions have only lost two. They had a draw in there as well, but they're playing very well. Both sides sitting in the top three on the ladder. Brisbane Lions in second, Adelaide in third. They close the margin. Right now it's a six-point margin between the two of them. If the Adelaide Cries win this game, that'll bring that margin back to two points. So the Lions have a good opportunity here to extend their gap on third, fourth, and beyond with a win in particular here. Brisbane have won six of the past eight verses plus a draw in there as well. That means Adelaide's only won one of the past eight games against Brisbane, but they have covered three of the past four. Statistically, Adelaide are the better attack and better defense, but Brisbane just have a knack of getting over the line and winning games. It is somewhat surprising to see Adelaide at the current price around that$160 mark. I do think they're a little bit short as Brisbane are definitely going to be hard to beat in this game and have traveled so far this season. Their only two losses have both been at the GABA. They haven't lost a game on the road. They did draw against North Melbourne in Tasmania, but have been doing enough to get over the line and win. Think this is another game. It's going to be a close margin. 12 points either way. Can't see it being more than a fourgoal game either way. I think it'll be a really close matchup between these two sides. In terms of the total at 158, obviously you have to factor in the weather conditions, which is why this number is so low. Currently, I'd probably play the over purely just due to the fact that if the weather isn't as bad, this number will quickly skyrock. So, you could take the over now. And I don't think it's going to end up being too much lower than the current number. So, that's one way you could look at it playing it. If it was played in good conditions, I'd expect to see this number in the mid70s, similar to what the totals have been in their previous meetings. Richmond versus Sydney Swans. past. Both these sides are well down on the ladder. Richmond 16th, Swans in 14th. It is definitely an important game, particularly for the Swans. They can't afford to lose touch with the top eight. They're right now three games outside of it. If they are to lose this game, they'll likely be at least four. They'll be four games outside of the top eight, which this stage of the season, we're halfway through, makes it near enough impossible to get into the finals. They are $145 favorites and that's drifted out slightly to a$147 and the handicaps moved down from -14 and a half to minus3 and a half. The total has stayed at 162. Richmond have won and covered the past two versus Swans and seven of the past nine head have been decided by 139. So majority of these matchups have been close. Last season they just met once which was in round three at this venue with Richmond winning 8277. a fivepoint margin as $4.15 underdogs. Then in 2023 they met twice. The Swans won at the Adelaide Oval early in the season 122 to78 but Richmond won at the MCG in round 17 88 to75. So Richmond have won the past two which have also been at this venue. And also this will just be the Swan's second game at the MCG this season. They had one there a couple of weeks ago against Melbourne where they lost 131 points to 78. Melbourne didn't play good following that either. They lost to St. Kilda in Alice Springs. Swans followed that up with another 131 points conceded against the Crows. The past four weeks, Sydney haven't scored over 78 points. In fact, they've only scored over 80 points once across their past eight games. If Swanson to win this game, I don't think it's going to be much. So, I'd be leaning towards Richmond at the plus. I'd prefer more than 14 and a half points. I don't think there's a lot of room to work with from that perspective. But Richmond were really good last week against GWS. I'm probably going to be a little bit disappointed they let that game slip away in the last quarter. They were kept goalless, which was enough for GWS to bridge that margin. If they play that same style of football as they did last week, they'll win this game at home against Sydney. But whether they can replicate that two weeks in a row, that's going to be what we'll find out here. The past month, they've been hanging around in games. They've covered their last three. Interesting. They didn't cover the game against West Coast where they won by two points, but their last four games have all been decided by 13 points or less. They can keep it within that margin here, they'll cover, and I think they'll go close to doing that. Wouldn't be at all surprised if Richmond were to grab this game, get their fourth win of the season here against Sydney. Four of the past five head-to-head have gone over the total. The tricky thing with the total in this game is you've got Richmond who are averaging the least number of points, Swans who can't score, but neither side are good defensively either. So, they even each other out a little bit in terms of a fair total. You could even get the number down into the 150s, but with their defenses, I think this number is pretty close to being right. Last time they met it was 183 and a half last season, but back in 2023 the numbers were down into the low 160s, high 150s. Don't have a strong lean on the total in this game. Just both sides are hard to trust in terms of going forward. Prefer the sides if I was to make a decision on it right now. Jalong vers Coast Jalong $138. They opened at minus7 12 that has held true and the total hasn't moved from the 172 and 12. Jalong currently sit fifth. Gold Coast Suns sit fourth. So another one of these games where we've got top sides going up against each other. Third of the first four games this weekend that's set up to be really good matches at GMHBA Stadium. This will be played. So strong advantage there for Jalong. The Gold Coast have won and covered the past two verse them. But prior to that, Jalong won six straight. The home team has a really good record in this matchup winning 10 of the past 13. are also 7-0 at home against Gold Coast with an average margin of 72 points. Last time they met was round 10 last year. Gold Coast won 164 to 100. That was at Thio Stadium. Prior to that, they had m two matches at Metricon in 2023. Gold Coast won by 19 in the 2023 meeting and Jalong won by 60 points in the 2022 meeting. Gold Coast playing really good so far this season. They're currently number two attack and number two defense. Both ranking higher than Jalong in attack and defense. So you definitely have to give them a good shot at winning this game at the plus 17 and a half. I think they can go close to covering that. Last week we saw Jalong just they won by 43 against West Coast. However, West Coast were right that game through the majority of it and within a goal just after 3/4 time. Gold Coast need to bounce back after the loss against Freeman. They have the buy following this. If they can get a win here, they're really well positioned going into their buy and setting up for their run home across the final 10 weeks of the season. And then Jalong returning from Perth last week. They've won their last three, beating West Coast, Bulldogs, and Port Adelaide across those three matches. The Bulldogs is the key one. That form line sets up well here. But the Gold Coast Suns did beat the Bulldogs in their game a couple of weeks ago as well. That definitely ties them in. I'd be leaning towards the Suns at the plus 17 12. And the total I'd be leaning towards it going over 172 and 1/2. Three of the past five between these teams have gone over. Jalong, four of their past five games have gone over. Gold Coast two, two of their last four have gone over. So they've had two go under go over. Their last two have gone under. But keep in mind the game against Freeman was in the rain last week. So this will be should be back into dry conditions. So leaning towards the over in the Jalong Gold Coast game. GWS verse Port Adelaide. GWS opened 127 and they have drifted out to $133 and the handicap was - 23 and 12 down to minus 20. The total opened at 160 and a half. another low total for one of the games this weekend which is likely off the back of the history between these two teams. Eight of the past 10 have gone under and Port Adelaide their last four games have gone under. They've been really struggling to score only scoring over 51 points once in their past four matches. However, have been versing top teams during that period. GWS chop and change whether they want to be a good side or a below average side. Right now they sit seventh on the ladder. Important game for them to win this at home to continue building on their season. Don't want to drop a game. They got out of jail a bit last week against Richmond. Still got the win though and they can continue building a bit more momentum with a win here against Port Adelaide who are off the buy and lost four straight leading. And they also conceded 100 plus in three of those four games. Adelaide scored 89 against them in the showdown. Was the only team not to score at least 100 against them. GWS have won the past two verse Port and they've won and covered the past three at home verse Port. Port though have covered the five of the past six vers GWS. Expect GWS to win this game. Think that game lasting against Richmond might have woken them up a little bit. Not to take opponents too lightly. They're at home for the second straight week. Even though Porter off the buy, I don't think that it's going to be quite at the level to grab the win here against GWS. Assuming GWS string together four good quarters. think Richmond just caught them a little bit by surprise. They came off that of a dominant win against Carlton prior, so might have been full of confidence and just took Richmond a little bit too lightly, but like the fact they got in, got the job done when they needed to in that fourth term. Expect they win and probably win this game comfortably with the total at 160 and 1/2. Statistically, the fair total here is 162. So it is a little bit low but right now I don't really have a strong lean on the total as which way to go. Just don't really trust Port Adelaide scoring right now. GWS currently ranked sixth defensively in points conceded whereas Port ranked 15th. So you could look at Port going under as a potential bet, but it's going to be a pretty low number that we're going to get considering it's already a 20 point handicap and we only have 160 and a half as the total. North Melbourne vers West Coast. This game is going to be played over in Dublin. So that is effectively a home game for West Coast. But North are taking their next two games over there. They open a $162 F. They have stayed at that mark with a minus 8 1/2 point handicap and the totals moved up from 165 12 up to 166 and a half. North Melbourne have won four of the past six vers. West Coast got the most recent meeting at Blondstone Arena, 102 to 97 in round 22 last season. North beat West Coast over in at Optus in Perth last year, 74-65. That was in round 13. We are the two bottom teams on the ladder going up against each other. North Melbourne have two wins and a draw. West Coast just a one win on the season. It's hard to trust both sides and they've both shown glimpses where they've played well but then a lot of more of the time playing poorly. Do agree North Melbourne should be favorites for this game as they've shown more consistency and played better overall on the season. They're also the better attack and better defense. But these are the two teams that concede the most points. So I can understand the total moving up a little bit already with the total at 165 1/2. I think that number is about right but lean towards it going over the total. North Melbourne come into this off the buy after losing to Collingwood but in a game similar to what West Coast last week against Jalong. They hung around in that game for quite some time with Collingwood getting the better of them late. Jalong got the better of West Coast in the fourth quarter last week. This is a much easier game for both of these sides and I think it's going to be close. The past seven meetings have been decided by 15 or less. Just five points and nine points were the two margins last season. Couple of fivepoint games back in 2023 as well. This is a perfect game for a try bet. Lean towards North Melbourne. could potentially take them at the 1 to39, but I think your tri bet either team 1 to 15 or 1 to 24 is probably the best betting option in this game with the total six of the past seven going under and North Melbourne their last four games have gone under. But West Coast, they've had five of their past six go right now be leaning towards the overs points can be scored. I just want to do some more research into the venue before finalizing a bet on the total in this game. So that'll be updated in the best bets membership below. Carlton verse Essenden on Sunday. Carlton favorites here $144 minus 14 12 was the opening handicap and that hasn't seen any movement yet. The total also still sits at 162. Carlton have won and covered four of the past five verson and I think they're well positioned to win this game coming off the buy. Essen do have good rest as well as they played the Brisbane Lions last week in the Thursday night match. So they've had from Thursday through to Sunday. So 10day rest. Carlson from the buy playing GWS have 15 days rest coming to this game. Both teams should be well rested and I do think it sets up to be a pretty close contest. This is an important game. Both teams right now. Carlton they've lost three of their past four games. The season slipping away a little bit. They sit in 13th. Estston are two wins ahead of them in 10th position on 24 competition points. So this is a game that's a lot more important for Carlton in terms of the overall season than it is for Essen. Not that it's not important for them, but there's Carlton are in the same boat as Sydney. If they lose this game, the gap between them and the top eight grows pretty exponentially with not that much time left in the overall season for you to make up that many games. So, it's a must-win game for Carlson. They were poor against GWS prior to the buy. They also lost to Sydney, who haven't been good. GWS bounced back from their game with a win, but it was only a three-point win against Richmond. Hard to trust that form with Carlson. I think Essen probably bring the slightly stronger form. Only a close loss to Brisbane. They beat Richmond by 23, but were hammered by the Western Bulldogs. But hang around in games. So no matter what, aren't going to be out of the contest here. Carlton have had a habit this season of winning the first half, letting teams back in and beating them in the second half. So you could potentially look at Carlton on the first half here. They come out of the buy strong in an important game. They build a lead, but then Essen come back, close the gap. It's probably going to be a close margin by the end of the game. 11 in of the past 12 between Carlson and Essen have been decided by 1 to 39. Doubt we see a 40 plus margin here, that's for sure. So I'd be looking at either team to win by 1 to39 as like your betting options here. Lean towards Carlton in a very close game, but not a huge amount of confidence. I do think they're a little bit short. And a lot of the reason why I think Carlton win is partially backed by the importance of the game. So whether that that corresponds to onfield performance, we'll know on Sunday. The total at 162 and a half, four of the past six head-to-head have gone under the total. Their last matchup did go over with Carlton scoring 96 points. This is another game where I think it is deserving of having a low number. Essen their last five games have gone under. Eight of their last nine as well have gone under the total and Carlson have only had two games go over the total on the season. So another game that it's going to be lowcoring most likely. Both these teams favoring lowscoring games. struggling to score also being hard to score against sets it up to be a close low scoring contested game. So with those factors in mind that's some good angles in terms of betting on it. And then on Monday Collingwood are $127 at minus 23 12 point favorites against Melbourne and the total has moved up from 162 up to 163 and a half. Collingwood sit first on the ladder half a game clear of the Brisbane lines. If Brisbane beat the Crows, then Collingwood will need a win here to stay in top spot on the ladder. And Melbourne sitting two games outside the top eight on 12th position. Coming back from Alice Springs where they lost to St Kilda, kicking 21 behind in that game. I think they had seven more scoring shots than St Kilda but lost the game by 28 points. Prior to that, they'd won five of six games. They have Collingwood this week and then Port Adelaide next week prior to their buy. I think Collingwood should win this game. They won six of the past seven vers Melbourne. They've covered five of the past seven. They're playing so so well. Their only loss since round one against GWS was a three-point loss against Jalong where they did have a shot to win that game after the Siren as well. Don't really see a way that Melbourne can beat them. Melbourne have showed glimpses of playing really good and then really bad in games this season. Just the way Collingwood are playing, it's hard to see any team beating them until their form drops off. Particularly on the back of being the number one defense between these two sides. There's massive differences between the team's defense. And I don't think Melbourne are going to be able to keep Collingwood to a low enough score for them. I don't think Melbourne are going to be able to keep Colling Wood to a low enough score in this game in order for them to win the game. Collingwood have scored 87 or more points in each of their last eight games and the only time they scored under 87 was against the Crows where they still scored 78 in winning that game. They've scored 105 or more in five of their last eight games as well. Just think they have too much points in them and then on the back of their defense should be able to limit Melbourne. And if Melbourne kick it really accurate, then they could potentially keep it close, but I just don't think it's going to be enough for them to get over the line and win. Colling Wood is playing too good. Eight of the past 10 head have gone under. The total is 164 and a half or 165 and a half now. Made a fair total for this game 164. So I think the bookies have nailed it here. Collingwood, their last three games have gone under the total. Melbourne, they've been a fairly even under oversight. No major trends for them this season. Right now, no major play on the total. The last four going under leans me towards the under a little bit, but it'll just largely depend on how much Melbourne are able to limit Colling Wood's attack as I think Melbourne are struggling to score, but can they stop Collingwood scoring enough? Like giving up 91 points last week against St. Kilda who were ranking 10th in attack going to that and also really struggling definitely concerns me a little bit. And obviously a big occasion being the Monday afternoon game, Collingwood will well and truly be up for it as well. So wouldn't be surprised for them to score 100 plus in this game, which will go close to pushing this number over as Melbourne likely will score at least the 60 points. So that's my early look before lineups are out and how I'm approaching betting on these games. If you want to see everything I'm betting and follow along and profit this AFL season, go to the link in the description, set up your account. You'll get access to all the bet finder tools where you can analyze games, analyze team performances, the stats, the players, everything you need to profit betting on the AFL this year. Thanks guys for watching. Really appreciate you following on the channel. I'll see you guys in the next video. Good luck with your bets this weekend. Also, I posted a video a couple of days ago doing a midseason betting review. Make sure you check that out. We review round number 12, but then at the end I go through some of the betting stats overall this season. So, if you are betting on the AFL, and if you're watching this video to this point, then you definitely would be, then that video will definitely be something worthwhile checking