Public Opinion and Polling

Introduction

• Public opinion involves citizens' opinions considered by the government for policy-making.
• Focuses on opinions of citizens, not visitors or non-citizens.
• Polls aim to sample those who the government serves.

Understanding Public Opinion

• Public can be categorized into different groups:
  • Masses: Often less interested or knowledgeable about politics.
  • Elite and Attentive: More invested and likely to vote.
• Polls may target specific groups (e.g., registered voters, likely voters).

Historical Context

• Founding fathers believed property owners (elites) should have more say in government.
• There's a need to balance between elite opinions and the general public's common sense.

Polling Methods

• Elections can reflect public opinion, but participation varies.
• Straw Polls: Unscientific, often biased, used for interest.
• Scientific Polls: Use representative samples and random sampling for accuracy.
• Self-Selection Bias: People who choose to participate may not represent the general population.

Challenges and Issues in Polling

• Question formulation can bias results.
• Polls often show a weak connection between public opinion and policy.
• Barriers to voting can affect who participates.
• Horse race mentality in media can overshadow important issues.

Types of Polls

• Random Sampling: Everyone has an equal chance to be selected.
• Quota Sampling: Uses set limits based on demographics, but can introduce bias.
• Stratified Sampling: Combines quota and random sampling to improve accuracy.

Polling Techniques

• Telephone: Declining with fewer landlines.
• In-Person: May bias results based on who is available.
• Exit Polling: Captures opinions of those who voted.
• Tracking Polls: Track opinion changes over time.

Manipulation and Bias

• Push Polls: Designed to influence rather than measure public opinion.
• Robo Calls: Automated calls that may manipulate opinions.

Sampling Errors and Margin of Error

• Polls have a margin of error, indicating the range of accuracy.
• Larger samples reduce error but increase cost.

Conclusion

• Polls are a key tool in understanding public opinion but have limitations.
• They can be manipulated or misread, emphasizing the need for careful interpretation.