The Future of Urbanization

Current State and Historical Context

• Urban Population Today: Over 50% of people live in urban areas; expected to reach 70% by mid-century.
• Historical Urbanization:
  • 100 years ago: Only 20% lived in cities.
  • 10,000 years ago: Humans as hunter-gatherers, then early agriculture.
  • Development of semi-permanent villages.
  • 5,000 years ago: Permanent settlements with irrigation and tilling.

Key Developments Enabling Urbanization

• Agricultural Advancements: Selective breeding, early farming techniques.
• Permanent Settlements: Irrigation and soil tilling ensured a steady food supply.
• Surplus Production: Allowed specialization of trades and emergence of cities.
• Trade and Commerce: Flourished with development of carts, ships, roads, and ports.
• Labor Shifts: More people moved to cities for jobs and opportunities.

Challenges and Evolution of Early Cities

• Population Density: Ancient cities had high population densities.
• Transportation Limitations: Everything needed to be within walking distance.
• Defense Needs: Cities were confined by the necessity of defensive walls.
• Roman Empire Innovations: Infrastructure to mitigate spatial limitations.
• Modern City Development:
  • Industrial Revolution: Expansion and integration of cities.
  • Establishment of public services: police, fire, sanitation departments, road networks, and electricity distribution.

Future of Cities

• Population Growth: Predicted to reach 10 billion; growth mainly in urban areas of poorest countries.
• Challenges: Providing food, sanitation, and education.
• Sustainable Growth:
  • Vertical farms, rooftop gardens, and use of vacant lots for food production.
  • Increased reliance on renewable energy.
  • Vertical residences and buildings that integrate daily life needs.
  • Development of smaller, self-sufficient cities with local, sustainable production.
• Urban Diversity: Future cities will be diverse, adaptive, and not centered around a single industry.

Key Takeaways

• Urbanization has drastically changed from ancient times to modern day.
• Agricultural advancements and surplus production were pivotal.
• Transportation and defense needs shaped early urban layouts.
• Industrial Revolution was crucial for modern urban infrastructure.
• Future urbanization will focus on sustainability and addressing population growth challenges.