good afternoon Traders and investors will back here with another one coming to with a Thursday Market recap hopefully all you had a very good day of trading today and in today's markets guys well the battle rages on at the lows the Bulls and the Bears having it out today once again the market starting off red then going green 1% almost and then eventually ending into the red as well so unfortunately Powell's doish yesterday was not enough to keep up the rally and we still cannot close above the 200 day EMA and with only one day remaining before tomorrow's very large off expiry it begs the question is the move going to be to the upside or to the downside and of course for how much well of course we'll have to take a look at that in today's video as well in today's video we're going to take a look at a few company earnings that happened today I'm going to be taking you guys through the Micron and the Nike earnings tomorrow we'll be taking a look at FedEx so we'll go over those two companies in just a few short moments and then of course do our technical analysis rundown of our Major Market indexes see how we stand across the board in terms of our sectors also then take a look at our big Tech names see how the big Tech names are shaping up very mixed day in terms of big Tech names somewh up wildly in the morning before tracing a lot of those gains into the end of the afternoon looking at you meta and then in the end guys we're pretty much just going to do a quick recap of some of the Swing trades that I have for you guys so it should be a very interesting video Let's jump right into it shall we so moving on to the spy Spy down about. 29% The Q's down about. 34 but it was not always as such if you take a look at the Futures this morning guys we we were actually down to start off the morning here down down down down down came the markets early on in the morning then we had a nice little bump coming into the open and unfortunately we just Unwound everything so we're really just barcoding here at the lows in the past 4 days of action not able to close above the 200 day EMAs and the cues largely showed the same picture we were coming down aggressively in the early morning in the European hours before getting a nice little bounce at the open and then thereafter then kind of just unwinding everything really just remaining sideways for the last few days of trading overall take a look at the heat map you will see that it was a very mixed market once again several of our big Tech names not cooperating Nvidia was green however the banks also very mixed Healthcare another mixed sector and across the board here in consumer defensives and some of the value names well it was a very mixed market overall now not very reminiscent of the strength that we saw yesterday afternoon so that push and pull between the Bulls and the Bears is really continuously raging on at the lows of the market right now it just goes to show how much of a black Cloud all the Tariff news has really cast upon the future growth prospects of the market this is probably going to be a stock Pickers market for arguably the remainder of the year as we move through this challenging and everchanging environment moving on to the group screener here one day relative only utilities and energy made it out of the day alive the rest of everything coming down led to the downside by basic materials and Industrials which were two of the ones that weren't performing too poorly in the last few weeks of trade on the one week even though we are at a nice balance from the lows and do retain some very good growth across most major sectors led by energy on the one month you can see the damage has already been done of course led to the downside by technology and consumer cyclical so we were expecting a bounce maybe not the size of the bounce that we wanted guys we'll take a look tomorrow a very large options expiry and as long as we're not close to the lows and working with a bit of space the Bulls have the chances of keeping this bounce alive but as of right now if we were to roll over and breach you know Monday's lows respectively on both the use and the spy and resume a daily downtrend with such a very very shallow bounce on the weekly it does beg the question do the both do the Bears have the ability to roll this over and the answer quite frankly would indeed be yes not going to call it just yet cuz there's a lot of trade left but we're unable to break above key major levels even with a nice bounce out of support we'll take a look at that later on in the video as well now moving on let's get into some of our earnings and we're going to start off with a big one which was Micron today bringing us some fairly good news in in terms of the AI narrative now Micron in the after hours is up about 2.23% after reporting quite decent earnings and also giving very very good guidance as well take a look at their numbers right here up 99.13% on EPS very nice beat right there and a nice beat on Revenue by about 2% as well if you just go through some of the numbers you will see here that they beat across most of everything but took a slight slight little hiss AC a slight Little Miss across the gross margins so Revenue was a nice beat gr gross profit was a Beat gross margins however tiny tiny tiny little Miss however on a year-over-year change you have a nice 20% bump in that overall operating profit beat EPS beat as well as we just saw and for the consensus guys for next quarter that is what Wall Street wants to know this quarter is fine and done but where are we going to stand in the next quarter wall Street's been putting a lot of emphasis on forward guidance this quarter with good reason we have very uncertain macro headwinds that face us right now revenues in terms of guidance was a Beat by about 3% gross margins was another tiny tiny tiny little Miss they've been spending a lot of money guys in terms of product ramping in terms of their new factories as well and just swapping out technology and converting a lot of their production power towards the hbm chips that they're doing for data centers rather so much than the dram components of their business which is more consumer oriented right the talking about consumer electronics phones and Automobiles and Industrial applications as of the like operating margins as well you came in with a Miss slight slight slight slight tiny Miss on margins but for the consensus for next quarter well the guidance was quite good a nice little beat on EPS as well so it was a decent report a couple key misses in terms of the margins which is what uh you know LED Micron to initially have a very nice rally in the after hours of about 5 plus percent and then kind of gave it all the way back as kind of time moved on now if you take a look at the article here Micron forecasts upbeat quarterly revenue on strong AI memory chip demand and the shares rise they did have a very good guidance as a matter of fact the strong demand for its high bandwidth memory chips the hbms used by the AI industry that was the highlight of this quarter and also the next quarter as well the CEO said that Micron expects dram and nand demand to grow in both Data Center and consumer oriented markets along with significantly improved profitability in fiscal year 2025 I will remind you of one of the pain points that Micron has been facing at least over the last 2 years is the fact that they had a lot of pull forward demand after covid with all the stimulus checks and you can see that in their numbers big pull forward in demand 2021 2022 then when people ran out of discretionary income stopped buying phones stopped buying cars stopped buying personal electronics we know those markets have been very weak for the last two years that is when you saw a key drop off in revenue and EPS good thing though you started to have the data center ramp which helped Micron kind of pivot but that consumer segment guys has been a big pain point for not only this Semiconductor Company but a lot of other players who operate directly for consumer goods smartphones and PCs the China firms were banned from buying and a lot of CeX towards new factories were some of the problems that Micron was facing moving on further Micron said it had not included the impact of potential new tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration given the uncertainty around the Tariff timing nature and implementations you should expect on every single earnings call moving forward any company guys they're all going to start talking about the impact of potential tariffs the company's been seeing inventory reductions at its PC and smartphone customers and expects a return to healthy Levels by Spring following a buildup in anticipation of higher prices due to the nature of those tariffs of course now Micron has been pushing back the recapture of the consumer segment of their business for about three quarters at this point at the midpoint the same time last year spring and summer last year they were saying that that was going to happen by the end of 2024 didn't happen then at the end of the 24 they said it was going to happen by early spring now they currently still say it's going to happen by early spring but will that be pushed back as consumers refuse to spend if they're expecting uh you know possible economic downturn it is very possible so that is some of the issues that are plaguing micron's business right now the data center business is doing just fine and when we go over that guys you'll see I mean their revenue in uh their D Revenue expansion in data centers is absolutely massive right now they also have an industry-leading product that everybody wants micron's industry leading hbm delivers a 30% power reduction compared to the competition and the 12h chip has a remarkable 20% power advantage over the competing 8h products from other competitors while providing a 50% higher memory capacity they have the best product in the game guys their growth is extremely strong right the hyperscale customers reiterated very strong year-over-year growth for the capital investments in 2025 total addressable market for hbms in 2025 should be about $35 billion and Micron retains about a 75 to 80% market share for those so very strong data center numbers overall but there is not where lies the problem the problem lies in the other segments of their business PC we expect the PC market to grow mid to single digits in unit terms in calendar 2025 with growth weighted to the second half of 2025 overall now they talk about the Windows 10 end life in October 2025 comp combined with an aging installed base and desire amongst customers to ensure that their PC hardware specs can support compelling AI applications in the future the AIP PCS require a minimum of 16 GB of dam so there will be an upgrade cycle coming but what if consumers delay it this portion of their business will remain struggling a little bit as you can see the guidance is not so clear they're saying second half of 2025 but will it actually happen we don't know as of right now the data center business portion of their business is just carrying this company forward as it should in terms of mobile another big aspect of their business as well turning to mobile our expectations for smartphone unit volume growth in 2025 remain at low singled digigit percentages these were industries that prior you know in during the pandemic and slightly before we're growing at Double Double digigit Clips in the last few years they've either been negative or now slightly positive to singled digigit growth that's just not good enough guys right smartphone customer inventory Dynamics have played out as anticipated leading to mobile dram and N bit shipment growth in our fiscal Q3 the one that just passed so it's growing but it's coming off of a very low level right we're not expecting tremendous growth in the refresh cycle for mobile phones at least we already have that guidance from Apple as well Automotive same thing the demand Outlook calendar 2024 uh demand bit growth was in the High Teens consistent with our prior expectations that was okay however right forecast calendar 2025 Ram bit demand growth in the mid to high teens percentage range and nand in the low double digits percentage range not that bad overall however however they somewhat can't keep up with the sply overall that's for the automotive segment so the automotive segment remains okay okay but you guys have seen the auto guidance as of the most recent few quarters and it's not the best consumers are largely tapering back on Big Ticket item purchases as rates continue to remain high so when can we actually see this business booming you may have to wait till the second half of 2025 and early 2026 as well Supply Outlook well we expect Micron Supply growth in 2025 to be lower than the industry demand growth for both our dram and nand meaning they cannot keep up with Supply that is why specifically they're building three three huge new factories in the terms of the past year and a half they've been building these right and that is going to help alleviate some of that supply chain pressure cuz they just are supply chain Contra constrainted right now which is something that a lot of other people are facing as well we expect our inventory days to decline as we move through calendar 2025 we expect to maintain our bit share in dram and nand in calendar 2025 as well so losing market share has never been a question for um Micron overall they largely are the industry leader in anything from consumer applications to Data Center applications as well it's just that they cannot keep up with the demand for their data Centric component which is why they've been spending so much money on those factories a significant portion of our Capital Investments are focused on multi-year facility Investments the factories to support the dam and hbm Manufacturing including our Idaho Fab like very large fab right there the Singapore hbm Advanced packaging facility and a Taiwan dram test facility as well on tariffs Micron serves as the US importer of record for a very limited volume of products that will be subject to newly announced tariffs on Canada Mexico and China so at least they're saying that tar should not truly be a problem for them overall but overall guys if you're looking at this truly I mean it's not that bad of a quarter and the guidance is indeed quite good they're very resilient as opposed to other companies because their product Suite is so large and covers many segments right it kind of reminds me a little bit of the TSM guidance and the Nvidia guidance as well to where the consumer segments of those businesses are somewhat underperforming historical Norms but the data center businesses are making up for all of that Slack adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was about 857 million so all in all guys decent quarter for them right revenues were up EPS was up the guidance for revenues and EPS were up margins taking a little bit of a hit as they have to redo their production capacity towards more hbm chips and slow down the consumer ones overall but they were able to produce some very nice cash flow now where do we stand in terms of valuation guys well as we can see we're coming out of a cyclical trough right pull forward in demand here bottoming out process and now we're returning to EPS growth at least for the next 2 3 years revenue is largely the same up into 2022 down cycle bottoms and now moving against to again to the upside analyst forecasts also show that the midpoint price Target remains about $130 roughly 30% above the current price and in terms of their balance sheet guys well since it's a very cyclical business their margins are not very consistent they've been improving margins since the lows of 2023 back to normaly right now about the mid to low 20 percentage range and overall the free cash flow well although it was not that good they will be returning to free cash flow growth because now the investments in those facilities have largely been made so as we can see here on a quarterly basis the free cash flow is not negative just yet but you see the free cash flow amounts were very small and this quarter that they just just just put in that I just showed you 857 million so now we're kind of getting back on track overall not that bad if you ask me in terms of the quarter but also the balance sheet I mean they spent a lot of money guys if they had some money to spend they burned all their free cash flow so that is also why you have not been seeing any BuyBacks as of recently and I don't expect to see BuyBacks at least for the next few quarters as well so now where do we stand in terms of valuation at $105 is this stock buy well it really depends on your time frame right it might be a little bit bumpy as the rec or or rather as the rekindling of growth among semiconductors also remains somewhat bumpy through 202 you know midpoint of 2025 back half of 2025 yes but right now we still see a lot of semiconductors out there struggling because of the consumer segment portions of those businesses right now as they stand at 105 you're looking at a 15 forward price to earnings for 2025 that is historically very low for this company so it's a decent buy but you can expect a lot of volatility as we've seen in the last 6 months of trade it's trading at a onepeg which is very very good right now and a Ford price to sale of 3.25 which is well below the industry average of 14 all in all everything tells us that the valuation of Micron right now is cheap and they do stand to benefit tremendously from the data center ramp but as I said the consumer portions of their businesses are slowing down an otherwise expanding company in terms of their data center Revenue segment as well so as Micron a buy right here yeah it's a nibble but if we come back down into the lower '90s 80s it becomes an even better buy because the valuation will come even lower I do think that the next few years for micron will be quite good as they continue ramping up the infrastructure bring all their factories online and eventually we will get a refresh cycle for smartphones for automobiles and for personal Computing Electronics when the consumer comes into you know better budgets and more discretionary income which largely should come as a byproduct of the interest rates declining over the next year and a half but it might just be a slower process than anticipated which is why I'm not calling for micron to blast off like this like it did back here but can we see a gradual recovery in stock price and could this be a decent bet if you like the company yeah the valuation right now definitely does support some expansion those are my thoughts on Micron now let's take a look at one of the problem Childs in the market which is Nike and let me pre preface Nike by saying the few problems that Nike has been facing right number one is the lack of innovation now a few years ago the new CEO that they had had throughout the pandemic pivoted the business model from one that was focused on running shoe Innovation to one of more fashion brands and just reiterating a lot of same Styles but just different somewhat different designs and pushing them out to the sneaker Market by the masses eventually consumers got tired of this and they wanted to see new innovation and in that time other brands such as on N especially on on and running right they really took a lot a lot a lot of hype and culture away from Nike for people that were actually looking for Pure form running shoes with good technology because Nike that kind of took a backseat for them problem number two huge inventory buildup during the covid pandemic times thereafter right huge demand during the pandemic but then when the stimulus check stopped and we ran into the 2022 asset uh asset crash where all stocks crashed and people ran out of discretionary item discretionary spending for items rather well Nike's inventory built up up up up up and when you're a fashion company and you have a bunch of inventory of now stale models well what do you have to do you have to liquidate all of them right and not at a good cost so Nike's margins took hit as well all that combined as well as breaking the relationships with wholesalers right they move from wholesale relationships you would find their shoes everywhere Foot Locker and other Wholesale Distributors now they pulled back on all that shelving Space by wanting to go more direct to Consumers and doing these hype launches on their own website now unfortunately that is backfired for Nike because what that's allowed other brands to do is step in and fill that shelf space in all those uh wholesale locations such as Foot Locker so the new CEO has a lot of challenges ahead of him right he has to solve those three problems and what we've been looking to see now that we've been for now this quarter and the last quarter under the new CEO's tenure what does he been doing to address those three concerns but because you can see a clear clear drop off here in Nike's eps and a very clear drop off in Nike's Revenue over the past two years so let's go have a look guys was it any better the stock right now is currently down in the after hours roughly 5% the numbers at least the guidance and year-over-year were not good now they did beat on EPS by 79% they beat on Revenue by about 2.27% but I'll explain the problem even though it's a double beat we're looking into the future guys and the numbers let's just look at the numbers guys and you can be the judge of this on your own right so they beat on the here's the problem right this guidance is already sandbag guidance meaning they lowered the guidance two times so far to now a very low level so when you see beats here it may look good but they're beating excessively low guided numbers right moving on to uh North America beat right EMA which is Europe the Middle East and Africa beat as well China big Miss 5.6% and Asia Pacific and Latin America Miss by about 2.6% these are very decently sized markets for Nike as you can see they cannot afford to miss those Footwear and apparel they beat but the guidance was very very low to begin with wholesale and directed consumer also beat gross profit margin was a beat right in terms of gross profit sorry the margins they missed on very very very slightly as they have to do more inventory reductions and more promotions to get rid of that so normal that you see a reduction in Gross margins and they did beat on EPS by a very nice uh Factor the actual inventory is also was a miss the consensus was $7.4 billion they have a little bit more they were not able to liquidate much of that inventory they started off 2 years ago with like 9.5 billion and in two years they've only been able to liquidate $2 billion guys they're not liquidating the inventory fast enough they need to do it faster I don't know how they're going to do it they're going to have to do it some way now let's look into the numbers guys Nike expects sales will Plunge in current quarter as it faces tariffs and sliding consumer confidence wait until you hear this guidance guys and it's not very good sales will drop by a double digit percentage in its current quarter as the sneaker Giants turnaround plans take longer than expected while it contends with new tariffs and sliding consumer confidence the gross margin will fall between four and five percentage points as it ramps up efforts to clear out excess inventory and stale styles that are no longer resonating with consumers not very good we believe that the fourth quarter will reflect the largest impact from our win Now actions the turnaround plan from the CEO and that the headwin to revenue and gross margin will begin to moderate from there essentially what they're saying is we know it's terrible but we're probably approaching the bottom and now the expectations have all been drisk essentially all been drisk at this point we are also navigating through several external factors that create uncertainty in the current operating environment including geopolitical Dynamics new tariffs volatile foreign exchange rates and tax regulations as well as the impact of this uncertainty and other macro factors on consumer confidence expectations were low headed into the release and profits fell 32% from the year ago period the company attributed its drop in Gross margins to higher discounts higher inventory obsolescence reserves higher product costs and changes in Channel mix sales were down 9% driven by weakness in China sales fell 177% in that key region in China not very good he has focused on winning back the CEO uh wholesale Partners reigniting Innovation and wooing back athletes that have fled to new competitors but the work has not yet yielded results while we met the expectations we set we're not satisfied with our overall results said the CEO we can and will be better one of the out of the hundreds of suppliers and manufacturers that Nike works with about 24% of them are located in China so there is definitely some tariff risk like right there over the last few years the overall sneaker and apparal markets have been slow because consumers have cut back on clothes and shoes fairly obvious but until up until recently strong companies were still performing well and taking market share from weaker competitors a lot of other brands guys have stepped in where Nike has been lacking however that Trend began to shift over the last few weeks when even the strongest of companies started to sound the alarm about soft consumer spending when they reported first quarter earnings raising questions about the health of the economy during the quarter sales in North America Nike's largest market fell 4% Nike is widely expected to reclaim the market share it lost and reset its business business and some insiders say the company's problems have been overblown even so the tariffs and economic fears could mean that the retailers turnaround could take longer and be more difficult than expected definitely not good and here's the death blow guys you guys want to see the numbers the numbers are not very good but like I said right this is now a full drisking of this company how much worse can it actually get should be the question you're asking yourself right now North America Footwear down nine apparel up seven equipment 10 but the Footwear is such a big component total minus 4% EMA down 10% all segments almost all segments double digits not very good greater China Footwear and apparel 177% total 177% terrible Asian Pacific and latam right all segments here down footwear appar equipment total down 11% guys and Converse the problem child for Nike well it has a lot of problem children right now but Converse has been an on ongoing plaguing issue for Nike down 18% here's your totals put where down 12 apparel down three equipment down two total Nike revenues for the brand down %. that guys is the nail the final nail perhaps in the Nike coffin as Nike now approaches prices that we have not seen since either the covid pandemic or the lows of 2018 now one could beg the question right at the depths of brand perception the depths of brand sentiment when it seems as though a few few people are wearing Nike than before and the hype and the culture around Nike has seemingly vanished will they be able to protect their Infamous intellectual property the Nike Swoosh well that will always be protected but will the brand be able to rekindle what once made it great that is a very large question and at the current market cap it is at this point hundreds of billions of dollars in questions right let me give you the analysis right here at $68 is it a good deal on a forward basis it's still trading at a 28 forward price to earnings that's because the earnings have dropped so much right they will be trying to recapture some of this but we will not be returning to the former Glory Days much before 2027 revenues same concept although the guidance does show a recapture of revenues we will not hit the same Clips we had before until 2027 which means that they're C currently trading at a PEG ratio of 1.6 which is just okay it's not even cheap the free cash flow yield though at 5.4 is good Nike's never had a problem with free cash flow at this point in time the dividend yield is also roughly about 2.2% so not the worst in terms of just buying Nike for somewhat of a at this point value and defensive play but a growth play it is no longer so here are my takes on the matter if you have a long enough time Horizon and you are looking for the rekindling of this brand overall then $68 is not a bad deal nor is it a bad deal to DCA all the way down possibly through the $50 range which I think in the event things get really bad for both the consumers the economy the tariffs the entire Market narrative we can come down guys below 60 all the way down to roughly $50 I think that'll be max pain that'll be the highs of 2017 in my opinion can we start a position here and slowly DCA and then possibly hold Nike for the next three five seven years if you want to give it a chance yes but growth at this company right now there is not the path Still Remains uncertain I think that they will have a good chance of coming back but at the end of the day it is a recovery story with many uncertain factors behind it so please keep that in mind so that is all the analysis for both Micron and Nike earnings hopefully you guys enjoyed that now let's dive into the roll roller coaster ride that is or that are the indexes rather all right so in terms of the technicals of the Spy Guys well we know just before getting into the Spy we are still at extreme fear reads on the on on the markets overall Market momentum Still Remains quite challenging stock price strength net new highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange well there's 's not many new net new highs in the markets nowadays and the stock price breath Still Remains at very weak levels you can see right here the percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average has recovered but not all that much at 40% right now which is good not the lows that we've seen in terms of the recent last few weeks but still in a paino percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average so they've recaptured some of the shorter term time frames but not the longer term time frames which arguably matter more still around 31% historically always been a good time to keep DCA at these levels and percentage of stocks above their 200 day EMA largely hasn't moved too much still the 30 percentage mark which historically I mean can go lower during times of utmost crisis but does represent a decent time to start buying into the markets which leads me into the point that I'm trying to make about the S&P that I have been making for the last few weeks the bottom of temporary Corrections is always very hard to predict so I'll do my best in giving you guys the best ta I can possibly do right now now we have a nice New bounce try and attempt for a daily uptrend putting in net new Highs but unable to close above the short-term 12 EMA and the longer term 200 day EMA which is there that being said we're into support but be very careful if we flush the lows of the at this point the Tuesday session 5595 that would be a recapture of a daily downtrend and with such a very weak bounce on the weekly time frame you are probably looking at either a revisit of the lows or even lower the expectation for lower would have to be all the way down here 530 down to 515 I'm not saying it's going to happen but I'm saying if we breach this level and start trending towards the lows it's not going to be looking very healthy now the Bulls can always keep this Alive by pushing pushing pushing confirming the daily uptrend overall and then pushing into the resistance area of 575 to 585 we will take this one day at a time guys if we are swing trading and writing puts because you guys know I like to write puts I am only looking for big bread WR days and high volatility to write puts significantly under the markets on my my favorite high quality High conviction companies no fluff right now not the time to be biding growth stocks not especially in this market especially some of the gross stocks that ran way way way too hot after the election period in the month of November that being said moving on to the q's The Q's also down about 34% today watch Tuesday's low guys this is a very nice daily uptrend attempt but they have not confirmed it unable to breach above now this entire week we cannot get above the lows of two Mondays ago where we had that massive 4% down down on the cues cannot get above the 12 EMA at least for a close and cannot even start testing the 200 day EMA that being said all is not lost we will take a look at this one day at a time but some of you may argue this is potentially a bare flag looking to break and you would not be wrong right you just got to watch the data the confirmation point for those short entries would be a break of the Tuesday low daily downtrend at that point with such a very very shallow bounce on the weekly you would be looking for either retest of the lows or even lower we are still holding the confines of support which end at 468 but the level lower would be down here 450 to 432 before the Bulls find any semblance of a big area of support to then meet us right moving on the XLF right now nice bounce on XLF arguably one of the best bounces across all sectors but a bounce is only a bounce until you confirm a daily uptrend that being said who's still in control the Bears you're just looking for a lower high the size of the bounce right now is currently standing at a 50% bounce decent size bounce All Things Considered but excuse me until we can confirm the daily uptrend that is all it is below a stand support 4834 down to about 4682 we'll have a look as to how they are able to do this trying to get the weekly bounce together as well could we maybe just be trapped between the confines of these two price ranges very possible we'll take a look at this one day at a time but financials Still Remains somewhat of a strong sector overall moving into the XLV Healthcare up about 6.06% as a matter of fact the bounce here is healthy guys but where are we bouncing into it is a daily downtrend bouncing into resistance which stands 14650 up to 14875 that being said this sector still represents a somewhat of a short entry opportunity because now we're coming at breaking down retesting this as resistance and now you're looking for the absolute flush right so if you are looking for a short entry for a short-term swing trade the entry would virtually be now stop a go above the highs and the takeprofit would be all the way down here at around the 140 level which is about a 2 to1 risk reward trade that being said the Bulls are trying their best to hold up in the context of this Market but any breach of this level right here 14380 would be a loss of a weekly uptrend and gives the Bears an opportunity for the lower high into lower low and challenge this very large area guys this is where the Bulls will find their final resting ground if we do break down below there that is 140 down to roughly 128 roughly a 10-point range acted as resistance for a very long time talking about all the way 2021 through 2022 moving into semiconductors right now not able ble to keep it up same as the spy in the QQ right they try and try and try and push and constantly get rejected who's in control here the Bears are definitely in large control of this uh market right now for semiconductors that being said the bounce size is fairly adequate right if you put the fibs on this one the bounce size was arguably the best bounce out of any of the technology sectors overall 78% bounce to be exact so on any you know uh flush of Price Right Here you'd be looking for a higher low then it's up to the Bulls prove it to us can they get the daily up Trend and start recapturing some of these weekly levels because the weekly bears are still largely in control all in all it's not looking too dire right now we are protecting the range of support but the Bulls really need to get their butts in gear over the next few days if you want to save this area which is 232 down roughly 217 if you do somehow flush this zone for another leg of weekly downside you're coming right down here to the 200 psychological level now the iwm Russell the Russell still struggling and as I was pointing out the entirety of the last two weeks any bounce right now is going to be looking for a lower high into resistance which stands at about 217 down to 208 and that resistance is going to be very tough for the Bulls to break overall the size of the bounce was not too bad if you put the fibs on it about a 50% bounce but it does not guarantee 50% bounce 50% chance of either the bearish retest of the lows or the Bull's ability to use the space and create a new daily uptrend and move further into resistance I'm still not a big fan of the growth trade especially in this market below support right now is 200 down to 192 moving on to the Dow Jones lastly as well also caught in this significant daily downtrend size of the bounce on the Dow Jones was good but I was telling you guys watch for resistance you see this right here inability to cross over the 12 EMA since the declines started an inability to close above the 200 day moving average unfortunately for them that being said guys the size of the bounce was okay all things considered about a 618 bounce which is what you want to see they definitely have a lot of space right now and we also have support below us 413 down about 40,5 you're looking for something like this to give the Bulls the daily uptrend challenge the resistance once and for all and get some legs on this weekly bounce because we know now it is still in the context of a big sweeping weekly downtrend unfortunately for them at this current time right so keep an eye on this big area of support and how we start retesting it if ever this is the top end of the move can they save it will take a close eye but you cannot say the weekly balance is underway with legs until you at least confirm a daily uptrend until that time a bounce is only a bounce moving into the vix the vix remains somewhat low as although the prices haven't moved on the spy in the QQ that much the volatility definitely has come down are we still seeing very volatile intraday swings yes but it's not straight down 1 to 2% every single day as it was prior to last week for about 3 weeks in a row so the vix remains at manageable levels I'll be a big fan of buying in the markets and selling puts if I I see a rekindling of the vix to the upside but as of right now seems as though volatility is slightly coming down we' haven't had any major new tariff announcements in the last week Jerome pow yesterday was fairly nice to us until we get more news driven catalysts I think the vix could as well remain a little bit muted moving on to the bond trade right now the bonds are a little bit tricky right we're trying to get the 10year to roll over right here trying to set the weekly lower high after a big engulfing move by the bears looking for the lower highs and the rollover you need to close a weekly candle below 4.15 on the 10 on the 20 year you need to close a level below here 4.5 let's call it right this whole support Zone you need to start closing right a lower high and then close me a lower low below and then you will really know that the TLT trade has been starting to get some legs we're looking for the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern but as I've said many times on the channel guys the bond trade is a very complex trade and it's a very slow trade as well so if you're expecting something like this that wouldn't happen guys only if fears of a big recession start coming front and center into the market will you see a fear bid into long-term bonds overall as Traders seek to lock in those longer term yields which right now stand at the midpoint of the 4% range so I still like this trade but can the trade be very slow to play out yes absolutely onto gold right now gold Still Remains a very strong character in the markets right now however we are daily overball conditions I've been looking for an entry point off of a higher low I'll still be very patient for that but can it just run away from us yes no signs of slowing down just yet you want to see signs of slowing down guys you're going to have to start losing this 4-Hour Trend right if you set the lower high lower low flush below right here 3,25 that'll be the queue that most likely the daily move up is done and then we're going to be looking for a retest maybe around the 12 EMA 29.89 worst case scenario would be down to 2950 to the low 2900s for just a weekly higher low for possible further EXP expansion not a big fan of bidding gold and smashing the buy button all the way here if you missed it down here you kind of missed this leg of the trade if you want to be uh good with your price action you would be waiting for those higher lows moving on to bitcoin right now down 3% 3.36% today a matter of fact and overall guys been kind of warning about this too right as you can see it was a nice daily uptrend we got the legs where are we moving into though the 200 day EMA which we crossed briefly and now since have moved back under it and also this area of resistance right I mean I can prove this box a little bit more to Encompass these guys down there that would Encompass the lower end of the move right we literally came right into resistance which I was saying was roughly 87,000 up to about 92,5 if you cannot give me more than that on the bounce I will remain firm and saying who's in control right here the weekly Bears right the weekly Bears have the weekly downtrend looking for the lower high and now maybe looking for the move into the lows right here possibly going to 73,000 to 66 that is the expectation can the Bulls Rec Kindle this move and possibly move into resistance create more space more of a weekly bounce yes and then I will change my tune but if that's all they got and the likelihood of retesting these lows or going into support are highly probable at this point which I think you guys understand means that the rest if Bitcoin can't keep it up what do you think the rest of crypto is going to do it's probably going to continue to decline at this current point I'm only only only going to be buying Bitcoin here if I want to plow money into all the other altcoins guys you got to really need for Bitcoin to recapture the weekly uptrends moving on to Apple right now down about 0.53% overall same concept right this is a setup for a technical short even though it's come down a lot where are we where are we bouncing into guys resistance 225 to about 215 huge huge area of resistance all these guys they used to be support now they'll be resistance and you are in the face of a big sweeping weekly downtrend with a very high valuation all those things combined are Confluence for possible more downside on Apple Apple has not pulled back as much as the rest of its sector peers right now only down about 17 a lot of these Tech names are down 20 plus right now could Apple be catching up maybe because the size of this bounce in relation to this move guys is a very weak bounce right this is a very weak bounce if you continue moving lower which you know today we're on the verge of losing the 4-Hour uptrend if you lose that 4our uptrend lose 211 and go lower the chances of the flush are very high the short entries are pretty much right now you can put your stop loss above the highs of the yesterday Drome pow 220 let's call it and maybe go for a thematic short if you're looking for the Apple unwind trade takeprofit area would be to 195 this is where I be looking for larger Bulls to kind of step in the valuation on Apple right now is very high the revenue run rate growth is very low at the end of the day it is Apple but when their Flagship product is only slated to grow 2% for this year instead of the ref mentioned guidance of 5% you have to be a little bit careful and you have to kind of look at the writing on the wall right I'm not saying apple is a bad company as apple is finished forever but can we maybe find Apple at a better price in the near-term or medium-term future maybe down here yes and that's what I'll be looking for it myself but anything's possible Right the Bulls can simply reset into a daily uptrend and Calla back more of this move but at the end of the day we're always we've always been looking for a lower high right we're just looking for the lower time frames to confirm how high that's actually going to get moving on to AMD AMD performing well today 86% to the upside as the daily uptrend remains underway your higher lows are still $97.50 right this one has been drisk while the entire markets were pumping since November this one was not I would largely say this trade has been drisk already right trading right now at a057 Peg that is very cheap and AMD I mean regardless of what happens to the consumer they're exposed to Data Centers right and they will be clawing back that market share uh as you can see the average allas price Target is 146 EPS is going to grow heavy in the next 3 years years revenue is going to grow heavy as well it may take a while but I think the risk reward profile of this company is quite attractive right now in terms of the weekly size of the bounce we can zoom in here and put some fibs on it weekly bounce is quite adequate right now it's about a 618 Bounce from bottom to top very nice retracement size now if they lose this daily uptrend shortly right and start reverting bulls have a lot of space on the weekly to reset a weekly higher low and go for the possible Trend change which you would not want to see of course is lose this support below us because if that happens it looks like I'll be buying more shares all the way down here 83 to about $70 I'm not saying it's going to go there but you're in the context of a sweeping weekly downtrend overall so if you lose it and the Bulls are not able to put a stop to the bleeding with that support range then the revisit of lows are highly likely the upside price targets if we can reverse into a weekly uptrend well the resistance targets are 120 to about $135 moving on to Amazon right now moving on to a so Amazon talking about Amazon 3% to the downside today now this you know these moves all these moves is kind of like trying to stop a freight train right it can't stop a freight train in one clean shot sometimes it takes a lot of time and Amazon has been trying desperately to protect its lows right here however the context is very clear it is still still still a daily downtrend the lower Highs are set right now at 199 roughly they tried to challenge today and unfortunately got rejected that being said the macd is not looking too bad the Bulls have a little bit of momentum behind it behind them and trying to re react from that 197 down to about 185 5 support range you break the lows of Tuesday however 189 and you are very likely going to challenge the bottom end of that resistance range if you break any lower than that guys right the next big area for the Bulls to defend is all the way down here roughly at the 175 to 160 range this is a very very juicy opportunity to be adding some Amazon shares to the long-term portfolio this will be an even better one we're focusing on the long-term this year guys there's so much uncertainty short-term swing Trends on Amazon for me selling short puts but I need to see big red days with heighten volatility give me the best best best possible strike prices below the market I do not want to play this one too close if you're trying for a little bit of a swing trade long going for the macd cross out of oversold conditions into the weekly bounce keep the trades very small because I will remind you they are all counter Trend you've lost the weekly time frames looking for a lower high right so these trades are counter Trend you have to keep them small moving on to Google right now Google as well down about 74% overall same thing right big sweeping freight train to the downside it takes a while to slow down a freight train and Google has not been able to do it successfully as of lately the lows are set no new lower highs just yet still at about 168 to breach this you really need to see the Bulls engulf the 168 level create some space off those lows then we can talk about the capacity for a daily uptrend recapture barely holding the lows of support right now 162 is going to be that final level you break through that guys unfortunately you are heading a bit lower 150 3 down to 140 Google is still very cheap 18.5 on aord price to earnings 1.23 Peg growing all lines of businesses very like very nicely but keep in mind Google has that doj lawsuit coming due in April right which we might just see some recourse what the doj wants as recourse from the company one thing's for sure if ever we revisit this range right here the 2021 highs very attractive guys because Google has you know for all intents and purposes grown their EPS sign significantly since that same share price in 2021 you can see the growth and revenue as well look at this growth right 257 billion was the revenue back then 389 is going to be for this year they've grown significantly from that share price so in effect you're kind of getting time machine prices with with much better fundamentals right now but as I said any swing trades long for the crossing macd out of oversold and into the possible start of a weekly bounce is a counter Trend trade so those need to be doing those need to be done very small and if you're looking to add for the long-term portfolio slowly DCA slowly with every paycheck we don't want to be going all in claiming that this is the actual bottom for this cycle overall onto meta right now meta what a story on meta today guys meta went up 4% from the open all the way to the top almost 5% and what a tough Market we're in right now it literally gave it all back just goes to show you the Bears guys are still very strong because we cannot close Above This 12 EMA is the short-term trend line right we cannot even get a close above the 12 EMA right so the Bulls are trying but the Bears are playing very good defense got to give it to them right now right so the lower Highs are still set right now at about 612 they tried for the engulfing move got rejected we'll see if they can get their butts in gear to try it again currently still holding above that 200 day EMA right below us 575 lower end of the support range 565 what you need the Bulls to do give me a new daily uptrend and challenge resistance at 632 to 615 the one point of contention though is we also have now lost the weekly uptrend right higher lows were here 590 big engulfing move even if they do get a nice daily uptrend going you're eventually just going to look for a weekly lower high then depending on the size of the bounce then you can tell me well maybe we can go for it if it's a nice enough bounce if it's too much of a shallow bounce and can't even break this resistance before we roll over on The Daily time frame right daily uptrend roll over the daily up Trend then you're probably going to be looking at possibly some lower lows that would be a big big big head and shoulders as well not saying it's going to happen but if it if you do see it happen you have to be targeting these lower end of supports down here 528 all the way down to roughly 492 this is really the best position to add any meta shares slowly because the valuation will be a lot more manageable than it is right now I mean it's not trading at a rich valuation by any metric right but the valuation can be compressed a little bit more down here is where really start to be an actual deal it's good here but here would actually be a very good deal when we on to Microsoft right now Microsoft as well was oscillating positive negative positive negative a few times today as the bulls and bears the battle rages on at the lows right coming off trying to get positive macd for the swing to the upside trying to set the daily uptrend right now unable to breach the highs of the Monday session the higher lows are right here 381 if you breach 381 to the downside new daily downtrend and just continuation of the weekly slide into support which culminates 378 down to 363 Microsoft very strong Company If you're looking for the swing trade long just keep in mind keep it small because overhead resistance is 393 up to about 408 so keep that in mind and although right now the Bulls are not looking too bad well it is still a weekly downtrend right and we're not truly into the bottom end of support so please keep that in mind the valuation of Microsoft right now has come to a much more manageable 29 on a forward basis at the end of the day as well Microsoft's Microsoft some of the best net margins in the entire Tech landscape right now well all things considered and also some of the best EPS growth consistency and revenue growth consistency that you'd be hardpressed to find in many other tech companies across the world I think it's a very good time to add some Microsoft long-term shares in that support range down there if ever we clip into it moving on to Netflix right now so Netflix as well down today .9% now I was telling you guys right look at the weekly this was a nice weekly uptrend for a very long time big sweeping move down by the Bears take a look the size of the move was a 78% 80% retracement when that happens the expectation is either for a consolidation range and then look for a break in a two-step process or worst case a lower high and maybe just a revisit of the lows now Netflix right now is not lost or higher low that is well is the lows of the Tuesday session 918 but if you see a roll over without any net new highs that would be a daily downtrend the weekly lower highs would be set and with such a shallow Bounce by the Bulls on this time 50% but only closing about 38.2 you would be a high likelihood candidate for a retest of these lows or maybe even lower Netflix right now trading at a forward well it was trading in a forward at 860 I can redo it at 950 right now just change these numbers around just so it makes sense right rather than giving you guys what they were earlier so if you trade it at if you look at it at 950 same EPS nothing's changed right 950 divided by your 2481 40ps you're trading at a 38.3 right 38.3 is not cheap guys even for Netflix even if you measure with 23% EPS growth you're trading at a 1.66 peg right it's still a little bit Rich you cannot say this is a cheap company cheap for me would really be if we come back down all the way down here to about 800 to add for any long-term buys 800 through 700 would be a really attractive opportunity not saying it's going to get there but if it does I will be a buyer and any Longs are somewhat discouraged right now because of the fact of how large this retracement size to the downside is moving on to Nvidia right now up about 86% not the worst day for NVIDIA but still struggling around the same prices that we had since the Tuesday session since their GTC event essentially right daily downtrend is now still clear as day nice bounce the size of the bounce was quite adequate for NVIDIA Bulls I'll give them that a 618 bounce unable to close above the short and the medium-term moving average is right they're even struggling with the 12 EMA right now which is this yellow line and the green is the 200 of course that being said the lows of Tuesday remain your higher lows if you flush those lows daily downtrend resumes that means your lower Highs are unfortunately set and maybe you're looking for a revisit of the support range below us 111 down to roughly 101 the weekly downtrend is still very highly pronounced right there and to the upside resistance stays put 125 up to 130 if the Bulls can get the week the daily optr going they will be met with resistance quite shortly and then that will be a decent size bounce but they still have to reset the weekly right we have not had a weekly uptrend on Nvidia guys since all the way back here before the chop began in the late stages of the month of November moving on to Tesla right now so Tesla actually was red for a majority of the day ending green but very noraly you can see that they're down in the after hours right now let me just check Futures ah just Tesla overall down about a half a percent still guys somewhat trapped on Tesla right the context Still Remains this sweeping daily and weekly downtrend lower Highs are set higher lows roughly higher lows it is a somewhat range of accumulation but a range of accumulation at the bottom end of the move you guys could also call this somewhat of a bare flag if you set the higher lows and start moving lower and cut the lows of Tuesday 228 you were looking at a new leg of daily downtrending action and unfortunately that would mean that the weekly slide even after 8 to n weeks in a row may just not be done culminating in support ranges down here to 20 down to 192 I'm not a big fan of counter Trend trading on Tesla guys I do not like buying it here there's just too much against us right the weekly freight train is still very strong the Bulls are unable to control a daily uptrend and even if they do there is resistance above us which is roughly $260 up to $300 right that is a big level guys very big level resistance resistance resistance support and all the way back here 2021 resistance right so we know that even if the Bulls are able to save this area it may just be some extended consolidation into the earnings date which is the end of April so no trades on Tesla for me just now we've gone to paler right now 1.5% to the upside so paler not doing a terrible job overall they were up 1.5% they did try for the daily Trend change but no daily close right still need a daily close above 8863 to really give that daily uptrend to the Bulls if you break the lows of Tuesday though $82 unfortunately it would be a daily downtrend into support 8367 down to about 78 and that would mean you get the daily downtrend here that would mean that the weekly lower Highs are set and you might just be looking for a little bit lower so far the Bulls are trying you can see that they're trying with this candle formation they're trying so hard to defend this area if the Bears are too strong and we too strong and we roll over sometimes I'm sorry guys I talk too fast I try to keep these videos as short as possible and I try to give you guys the most amount of information which sometimes leads to me kind of talking too fast I'm not even looking at the timer of the video right now I guess it's just what I do right so moving on in if they drop lower 72 down to $64 is the next big area of support and even even if the Bulls get it done right they go for the expansion this is a very big retracement guys the best you might get is a tightening range because when you have such such such a big retracement size 80% the vshape especially in this market is highly unlikely if anything you might just get a range of accumulation and tighten up into its extended valuation onto Sofi lastly down about 71% nice move yesterday Sofi didn't really give too much of it back it is still in the context of a nice daily uptrend any move lower going to be looking for a higher low anything above 11.78 is looking for that higher low for possible further daily Trend continuation and in terms of the weekly since we are in a confirmed daily uptrend right and above the 2008 EMA and the 12 EMA not bad the Bulls have momentum the macd cross for the Bulls right now the weekly though paints a different picture big weekly downtrend lows are set we're looking for a bounce and look at the size of the weekly bounce right now it's okay but it's nothing to scream home about right only a 25 30% bounce not the best bounce out there but decent what you really need to see is the Bulls continue this bounce all the way into 14 that would be a 15 a 50% retracement gives the Bulls a chance of resetting into a weekly uptrend but those weekly uptrend recaptures guys they take a while matter of fact they take weeks and weeks and weeks how I'm playing Sofi right now if we get a move back down into support which is roughly 1165 down to 956 right prior resistance IPO price as well get a move back down there I'll be writing some short puts to accumulate this beautiful company 11 all the way down to roughly $9 I want to accumulate some shares while we move into that area but slowly slowly right and pace yourself because we know this Market is somewhat tumultuous that is everything for today's video guys matter of fact no sorry I so I told you guys we'd be doing the swing trades today it's actually tomorrow on the Friday recap I'll be bringing you guys a whole new host of Swing trades recapping the ones that we talked about last Friday and last Sunday as well so that is today's video hopefully you enjoyed it if you did consider dropping a like would appreciate it for the growth of the channel also consider subscribing to the channel if you're new would love to have you back we do these every Monday through Friday after the close if you have any questions always feel free to leave them down below in the comment section I'd be glad to answer you on your stocks your options and everything in between and if you want to join a community of like-minded Traders and investors both investors for the long-term and Traders who for the most part we just look to collect premium and using 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