Lecture Notes: Market Investments and Analysis

Key Topics Covered:

• Recent Market Investments
• Analysis of S&P 500 Price Targets
• Detailed Discussion on Nike
• Investment Philosophy and Strategies
• Wall Street vs. Retail Investors

Recent Market Investments

• Major Investments:

  • Significant purchases in Nike, ELF Beauty, and AMD.
  • Nike: Purchased 300 shares for over $20,000.
  • ELF Beauty: Purchased 667 shares for $42,000, indicating a belief in bottoming out.
  • AMD: Bought 111 shares worth about $12,000.

• Investment Strategy:

  • Focus on long-term growth rather than short-term market fluctuations.
  • Aim to have more income than expenses to regularly invest, especially during market downturns.
  • Last inning of buying these specific stocks; looking towards new investment opportunities.

S&P 500 Price Targets

• Posted a comparison of 2024 S&P 500 year-end price predictions with actual results.
• Many Wall Street firms significantly underestimated the actual S&P 500 outcome.
• Critical view of Wall Street predictions, suggesting retail investors can often have better market insights.

Nike Analysis

• Current Situation:

  • Nike is undergoing a transitional phase with a focus on innovation and product strategy.
  • Recent conference call suggested a promising long-term strategy despite short-term revenue decline.

• Expectations:

  • Anticipation of revenue and earnings per share growth in the latter half of 2025 and 2026.
  • Nike's market position remains strong due to brand loyalty and strategic partnerships.
  • The strategy involves taking short-term pain for long-term gain.

• Market Position:

  • Despite the rise of competitors, Nike's global brand and new product rollouts (e.g., Pegasus Premium) position it well for future growth.
  • Exploring partnerships (e.g., with Skims) to enhance brand appeal.

Investment Philosophy

• Long-term vs. Short-term:

  • Focus on long-term gains rather than short-term market changes.
  • Emphasize the importance of understanding market dynamics and accepting failures as part of the process.

• Risk Management:

  • Suggests smaller position sizes for riskier stocks to manage potential loss impact.
  • Uses past success stories like Palantir and Tesla as examples of high return investments.

Wall Street vs. Retail Investors

• Wall Street Criticism:

  • Viewed as some of the least reliable in terms of market predictions.
  • Retail investors with long-term experience are often more informed.

• Retail Investor Advantages:

  • Investing personal funds leads to a deeper commitment and better research.
  • Retail investors' firsthand experience contributes to more grounded market insights.

Conclusion

• Encourages continued learning and strategic investment.
• Highlights the importance of adapting investment strategies based on market conditions and personal goals.