Pre-Market Insights for Informed Investing

Felix here, and welcome to this pre-market bloodbath where, well, well, well, well, markets are pretty awful this morning. Let's be honest about it. It's so awful that even Winston is trying to cover his face because this is literally what the pre-market looks like. You don't want to know. But what I want to do in the spirit of learning and getting better and persevering, apart from this being obviously a general. psychiatric session for all of us loons in the market. I want to actually give you seven or eight insights that will make you into a better informed investor that will allow you to make better decisions today and for the rest of the week and generally set you up for a glorious, exciting and very, very, very profitable 2025, which I think is on the cards for us. So I'm going to share my screen here with you. And there we are. So we're planning this. Why is the market actually falling again today? And if you don't believe it's falling, well, avert your eyes. This is not for children. Ouch, right? Ouch, is what I say. This is the pre-market, pretty hideous stuff. So why is it actually going down? Are stocks actually cheap? Is this maybe an opportunity? Could the optimists here be buying the dip? And are they? Because I've got the data, I can tell you whether or not retail investors are buying the dip, and I will tell you that in just a minute or so. And are you buying the dip? And should you? Isn't that the real question that's running through your head, right? We're going to get there at number four. And then what's Wall Street doing? Do they expect a crash here right now? And what is the one thing, literally the one thing that the pros are watching to tell them when the market goes from catastrophe to opportunity? And I will show you one more thing that you will never be able to unsee again and ask you whether you're still bullish after that one. And then what if, and this is a question I want to end here with, what if the bubble has already burst? What if we're already at the bottom? What if this is already the opportunity? Is that possible? Well, let's have a look at that in a moment. And then I should add to this glorious list, we will do our utmost to do a wonderful Q&A. Obviously, you can ask me all about your favorite stocks and your major concerns, and also mostly about how Winston is coping with it all. Seems a bit serious, doesn't it? So there we are. Golden Betriebers are now off screen. There he is. Is he on screen again? He's still hiding his face. So let's see where this takes us in terms of information. And by the way, if you guys would find these eight points useful, just write useful in the chat. And that way I know this is something that would give you some value. And therefore I'll do more of these kind of educational early morning run-throughs here again. Velvet ears, indeed, yes. All right, so let's run through this here then. And so why is the market falling again? It's this chap. He's at it again. I'll take Winston off the screen here for a moment. He seems to be watching. Are you watching, Winston? Are you paying attention? Maybe we can get some insight out of that one. He's got a very calm head. Okay, we're seeing a lot of use faults here. Brilliant. Fantastic. Loving that. Lots of use faults. Lots of use faults. The market's falling because of this guy. He said... That on tariff day, freedom day, as he calls it, across the table, tariffs on everything and everybody is an option again, which would mean across the board tariffs of 20%. That's sort of the original thought. And we kind of thought, hey, he walked away from that last week. It's going to be fine. It'll just be fine. And then on Friday, we got some jitters because he made some statements. And then over the weekend, this is what the Wall Street Journal just put out. Which is why the market looks so hideous this morning. So now you know. We're worried about bigger than expected tariffs again, suddenly, right? It's the Trump flip-flop at its finest. So let me ask you this then. What if stocks are actually already cheap? This is data from Goldman Sachs, a big Wall Street bank. And they look mostly not at current PE numbers, because current PE numbers is backwards looking, right? Because the E... So the P stands for price, right? This isn't really intuitive. So let me write this out. The E stands for profit. I mean, they call it earnings, but it's the same thing as profit. I always think this should be the PP ratio. I think it'd be a lot easier, but it might sound a bit silly perhaps. So they look at forward earnings, which means we're looking at next year's profits. So next year's. expected profits rather than last year's. And which makes a lot of sense, actually, if you think about it, because some of you guys want to, a little bit less Winston is being requested. There he is. He'll disappear. You guys can vote on that. There we go. And if you want more Winston, let me know. If you want less Winston, write, I don't know, cats or something in the chat. And I'll know what you mean. So what they're saying is, if you look at this chart, and let me make this a little bit bigger for you. The light. blue ziggety-zaggety line is the S&P 500, so the index. They're forward multiples. So how expensive is it, right? And then they have these sort of little dotted lines in here, these ones, which are sort of the top of the trading range and the bottom of the trading range. It's a bit like a Bollinger Band. Have you seen that sort of thing before? So we were at the top of the trading range here and here and here. And right now, well, we're at the bottom of the trading range. Now, the only thing with that is that right now we're trading at a 20x. So 20 times next year's earnings. At the last dip, which was 2024, we were at 17x. In 2022, we bottomed out at 15x. In 2020, that was COVID. We bottomed out at 13x. I mean, the world was ending, right? 2019, we were at 14x down here. So does that mean stocks are cheap? Well, I think the thing that's important to understand here is that We haven't actually had any terrible economic news. There isn't a big bank that's failed. There isn't a run on mortgages. There isn't some sort of catastrophic collapse out there. The economy is relatively strong. There is more or less full unemployment. Inflation is stable. I mean, it's not like, you know, it's an insane level. We're expecting two to three rate cuts this year. So it's a lot of stuff that's pretty good. Earnings are coming in pretty solid, right? No one's going like, oh my God, it's all over. And... Therefore, everything that's happening here right now is based on one thing and one thing only, not fundamentals, not the economy, not some data point. It's all based on one word, fear. Fear that what's coming on Wednesday, the tariff announcements, that they will be so terrible, it's going to like just shake everything. And if they're not that terrible, guess what's going to happen? Right? You put it in the chat. Let me know what you think is going to happen if the announcement is less terrible than expected. Now, what about you lot? Are you still buying the dip? When was the last time you bought the dip? Let me know in the chat. Just put the date in or put the weekday in or whatever. When was the last time you bought the dip? I wanted to buy the dip on Friday and then I looked at the data and I'll show you that very data point that changed my mind. There's one data point on Friday that's changed and I'll show you that because that is the number one thing that the pros look at here. OK, rally. Yeah, exactly. That's what we would expect. If the announcement on Wednesday, if the tariffs are not horrible, I mean, not like just like world ending, you know, then the market will probably recover. Now, you, of course, have to bear in mind with Donald J. Trump, his negotiation style is confuse the opposition until they just give in. Right. That seems to be the style. Honestly, he wrote a book, I want to say, in the late 80s, early 90s, called The Art of the Deal. it's a very good book. I'd read it. If you loathe the guy, I'd still read it because you understand how he thinks, you understand how he works. And it's actually quite entertaining. I read it like maybe 20 years ago. So our retailer investors buying the dip. Okay. Some of you did. Don, you bought on Tuesday. Ryan, you bought some two weeks back. Okay. Most of you are not that enthused about buying the dip. And that's exactly what we're seeing here, that we've had a lot of dip buying. In February, we had an extraordinary amount of dip buying into this, you know, mini crash that we're in. There's not really a crash crash yet. It's just like in that. But what do you see at the top there? Can you see that? Can you see that there? It sort of goes up and then it kind of does that, right? It's like a little hook. And that means retail is going, I'm not so sure about it. And retail has been holding up this, retail has been holding up this. market, even though it didn't feel like it, because the hedge funds were out the door on day one. So that concerns me a little bit, but that's actually not the data point that I'm worried about. I'm just saying sentiment there isn't so great. So are you going to be buying the dip and should you? I guess I asked you that, right? Honestly, my answer to that is very simple. Don't buy a thing unless you've watched this. And what is this? This is the tried and tested rules. Some of the most successful traders and investors out there have used since the 70s. Yeah, since the 70s. I didn't invent this. I learned it from my mentors. I've tweaked it a little bit because the markets have changed and evolved and things move a bit more quickly now than they used to. But ultimately, the question is always, when do you buy, right? When do you buy and when do you sell? Now, the selling part is actually the hardest thing. As you've experienced the last two weeks, you're like, it's going down. I don't want to sell it. Now it's down 10%. Now it's down 20%. I don't want to sell it now. Or what if it goes down some more? Maybe I should sell it at minus 30%, right? It's all the stuff that's going on ahead. So we automate that. And I show you exactly how we do that if you watch this masterclass. And it's free. It takes 15 minutes and you will literally learn those two rules. You will never look at a stock chart the same way again. You'll never look at your portfolio the same way again. And I'll tell you, you'll sleep a lot better tonight. That's my promise to you. It's completely free. FelixFrenzel.org slash get free. So if you want to get free from all the stress and ultimately get to financial freedom and make your money work for you so you don't have to and all that good stuff that comes from having your money work well, go to FelixFrenzel.org slash get free. And if you're going to go and watch that, just write free in the chat. Just write free in the chat and I see that you're going to go and do that. And if you leave this video right now and do that, I would be thrilled. I would be absolutely thrilled to say, Felix, free, I'm off. Right? Because that's more important than actually the news or the data today. If you don't understand the big picture and the big rules and the patterns that drive the markets, today's news isn't going to really help you that much. It just turns you into a news junkie who feels like they're doing something useful. But ultimately, the only useful thing is to learn the skills. It's like, you know, if I watch somebody chop wood, I probably still wouldn't be able to chop wood. I have not tried to chop wood, but I have an inkling that I won't be very good at it. Winston, do you think I'll be good at chopping wood? Is that the face of confidence in his master? I have my doubts. So, Mark, free of my first call today. Brilliant, my friend. David says free. Lots of frees in here. Brilliant rules. Fantastic. Already done that, says Luis. Roberto says free. Fantastic. Okay, the Japanese, we can get onto those in a moment as well, my friends. Natural lumberjack. Me, clearly, right? I mean, it's the way I'm built, isn't it? I did work out today with my crazy calisthenics coach from Israel, but that's a bit of a different skill. Now, does Wall Street expect a crash? I always like to look to Wall Street because I'm very lucky. Winston has insider access to some of the greatest minds on Wall Street and he gets all the analysts, reports and stuff. He's very popular over there. So therefore, I get access to them. And it gives us the kind of stuff that I used to get in the morning meetings. What's a morning meeting? Every bank, every trading floor, every investment bank, every hedge fund has a morning meeting. It's typically at 7 a.m. before the market opens. And somebody wise and older and more experienced who's been awake through the night will tell you what happens and what's going on and what you need to know so you make better decisions. And that's kind of my goal here. John thinks I wear high heels. John, I'm more worried about what's going on in your head now than in mine. Okay, so this is Goldman Sachs, and this is their forecast, right? This is just out, like out today. And what they're saying is that they think in the next three months, and maybe I'll magnify this. This is what we've just had, right? I'll put in green in here, or maybe in red, the expectation. It looks a bit like this. So we have the dip to 5,300 on the S&P. And then in 12 months, they think we're going to be back at 5,900, which isn't quite above where we were, but it's relatively decent. And what do they base that on? Well, they've got this blue line on here. Because they only use blue and blue. It's a special thing when you work at Goldman Sachs. I don't know what it is. But you see this line, right? This line here. This line is Monty Python, yes. Now, they're basing that on earnings per share. So EPS, earnings per share, profit per share. And because that's going to continue to go up, we'd expect the market to broadly go up. That's basically what they're saying. And of course, I think they're right in the long term. I don't know whether we're going to go this low. I don't know whether we're going to go all the way down here. Time will tell. But that's what the smart money is thinking, that we're going to have this three months correction and then we're going to go back to Nirvana. Does that make some sense to you? By the way, does that make some sense to you? If that makes some sense to you, put the number one in the chat. And then just a one. And that way I'll know that this is making some sense to you. Scott, you're a lumberjack, are you? Good at chopping wood. It sounds, it looks very satisfying. So I'm going to have to get myself an axe and do that somewhere. I could do that in France, I think. In Hong Kong, you don't really, we don't really have, it's not cold enough to have fires. What do you do in France? I'll post the video of me chopping firewood. Okay, lots of ones. Brilliant. Brilliant, my friends. Glad to hear it. And be honest about those, by the way. It doesn't have to land completely, just if it lands somewhat. Okay, this is an indicator that I always think about. Should I show this to you? When I ask people, they always say, don't show this to people, because people, they won't understand, they won't appreciate it, and it'll just confuse them, and it's probably not for the masses. That's literally what... What the banking guys say. That's how they think. They think of you as some sort of subspecies. It's horrendous. But that's kind of the reality of many of them. Now, what is this saying? And what the heck is this? What are we looking at here? Well, we're looking at the good old VIX, the fear indicator. But not the way you normally see it. But up here, in that direction. So at the top, you have fear. Okay? Lots of fear. Down here, you have happiness. Happy. Up there is fear. So the higher you go, the more fearful people are. And then to the right, you have the future. Back to the future. Am I writing it? You can see that, right? Yeah. So where we are right now, and I'll get a different pen here. This is, whoops, Microsoft, can I change the pen color? So this is today. Today is very, very, very fearful, frightening, one might say, right? Very, very frightening. um ryan what are you doing if you keep doing that we're gonna have to boot you out my friend so don't be a don't be a twit um now what does that mean why is today scarier than say a month or 120 days or 210 days away and does that make sense if you're an investor should you not be more worried for what's happening in like 200 days because you don't know what's going to happen between now and then. It's like this uncertainty, right? You should be more worried about a long time away than about today because you kind of know what's happening today. So when this is the case, this is a very, very, very unusual pattern. Like in any other day, the market looks like this. More fear in the future, very little fear right now. Does that make some sense to you? Seriously, let me know because this is a little complex. Put a one in the chat here. Okay. Michelle, I used to work at a bank. Sometimes the mindset is, yes, it can be. I mean, under the tough exterior, the guys are usually quite, quite, quite, quite nice. But yeah, there is a little bit of that going on there. Okay, I'm seeing some ones in here. A little bit more hesitant than previously, which is okay. And Ryan, you're reformed. Just the one, the one, one. I appreciate that. So. This is basically a very unusual situation. Now, when did we have such setups? When did we have such setups? Well, we had such setups just before 2008 market crash, before 2018. We had such setups just before the COVID crash. I could go on. It's very, very unusual. We had that setup just before last August, August 24. So it can be a very, very good indicator for freak out and panic and run around and scream. Obviously, that isn't very helpful. Instead, what I would, I use it as is, why don't I just wait another day? See if this gets more normal, which means fear comes down, in which case it's probably a much better time to buy. Because there is a chance. It's not going to 100% correct. There's no such thing as this indicator. It'll definitely tell you the crash is happening tomorrow. That doesn't exist. What we can look at the charts, and I'll show you that in a moment, is we can look at where do we exit, right? Where do we sell before the crash? That's 100% accurate. But this is an indicator that tells you, you should probably sit on your hands. That's what I'm telling me. So that's what I'm going to do today. I'm going to sit on my hands. I'm not buying a thing. Now, in the meantime, we have some trades on the VIX open, which are making us some very nice money. And that's all good. But I just wanted to make sure this is useful for you, because this is a little bit out of. This is literally something that, you know, options traders who've done this for like couple of years on Wall Street will look at and most people will not. So let me show you something a little bit more easy then. This is a little bit more easy and I'm asking you a question here, which is, are you still bullish after you see this? So there's a line on here, which I'm going to just draw in for emphasis. And my line is not perfect, but just so you see it. That is what? That is the 200-day moving average line, right? If you know what that is, It's just an average. An average of the last 200 days stock prices. Why is it important? Because all of Wall Street looks at it. Every single trader, every single successful investor and fund manager will look at this. And generally speaking, you want to be above it, right? Now, we have had dips, right? Here was a dip. There was a dip. There was a dip. And what do you notice? The market bounces off it. Most of the time, we bounce off it, right? Which is really, really good. Now, What are you seeing right now? And this is like a textbook advanced charting class, basically, which is what I want to give you here. What do you see the chart doing? Well, we broke below it, we recovered, and then we boing bounced off it down. And that is not, that is not a good signal. Because usually we bounce off the top, right, like here and here. But here we did the opposite. We bounced against it and it was resistance. People started selling again. And that makes me feel a little bit nervous, just a teeny tiny bit nervous. Now, Big Motox, they call it Armageddon. I think that's probably a little bit, a little bit exaggerated. Zen says, Tom Lieber leaves stock market will soar after April 2nd. Yes. And I can see his argument. I would, I would go as far as saying he's being a little, Maybe a little irresponsible with the way he's phrasing that, because I got his email on it yesterday, sort of saying it's kind of guaranteed. I agree that what I said at the top, if the Trump tariffs come in and they're less than fiat, the market will be happy. Everyone will sing Kumbaya and you're going to be seeing green, green, green in your portfolio. It'll be wonderful. But you don't know that. It's a binary event, right? It could be good, it could be bad. So the Every successful investor always prepares for the bad news and thinks about how do I benefit from the good news. But if you just think only in wish and only hope for the good news, the bad news happens, you get caught with your trousers down. And that isn't pretty. So that's the way I would look at that. So does that make some sense to you? Again, put a one in the chat and I'll see if this lands for you as well. And then let me give you some more positive news. And then I'll take your questions and we can look exactly what's happening live in the market, which opens in seven minutes. John says predicting the market value is like predicting the market crash. Yeah, exactly. We can only look at the data that we have. We can't predict the data. You know, it's like looking at an indicator and going, well, I think the indicator is going to go up tomorrow. And it's not how this works. You've got to wait for the indicator to tell you what it's telling you tomorrow. You can't just like, this is nonsense. So I'd be a little bit careful. Okay, there's a lot of ones here, which I'm loving. Thank you very much. Slightly concerned about the 69, but Paul's put in a three. What does that mean, my friend? What does that mean, Paul? You're about as confused as this guy, are you, Winston? You think he's, there he is. I mean, there we go. I think he's pretty chilled on the whole thing, isn't he? Overall, if he's your risk manager, might be a little lax. Might just be a little lax, the whole risk management thing. I used to have a risk manager who, should I say all the story? I probably shouldn't tell the story. No, I shouldn't tell the story. Anyway, he showed up with two black eyes one morning. That's all I say on that subject. I could probably get into trouble for that. So what is the bubble? What if the bubble is done first? Which means what if we're done with the sell-off? And Tom Lee is right. And the tariffs won't be as terrible. And everything will be green forever after from here, right? Winston's pretty chill about it. Yeah, he is pretty chill. He's a very, very chill dog, except when there's food around. That's his golden retriever. I told you this. When we got him first, he kind of couldn't walk very well and stuff because he'd spent his... early time in a cage and he was like not treated very well by wherever he came from and um so we got a physio in because he struggled walking and the physio asked me um is he food motivated and honestly at that moment i just thought just just just get the fuck out because this is a golden retriever is he food motivated is your first question i mean seriously some people you pay money to uh so anyway what this is again with some wisdom here from golden sacks and and They use two lines, right? One is blue and one is blue because I don't know what goes through the heads of people at Goldman Sachs. It's a very, very specific species of people. So let me explain this to you. The light blue line is the MAG-7, so the top seven tech stocks out there, right? Yeah, I see feedback. And then in blue, the dark blue, not the other blue, we've got The premium, can you see that? Can't see that, can you? You've got the premium of the Mark 7 stocks over and above, you know, the S&P, basically. So normally the Mark 7 trade at a premium because they're the better companies, right? I mean, the companies in the S&P 500 that make, I don't know. tins or something. And I doubt the margin is as good as if you're selling, you know, Microsoft Office subscriptions or something, right? Now, what are we seeing here? Well, zoom in a little bit. And you're starting to see that the premium, which is the dark blue line, is now down here, right? That green dot. And if I draw a line back, When was the last time it was that low? Well, 2017, we're at those levels. So the Magnificent Seven are cheaper or as cheap now as they have been in 2017, which is like six, seven years out. So you could therefore argue that this might be near the bottom. And I'm always saying near, I never say the bottom. Nobody knows where the bottom is. If they tell you they know where the bottom is, they're probably a dog sniffing bottoms. They're the only people who know where bottoms are. I mean. You can't predict the exact bottom of a market. Impossible. But near, you can deduct. And this makes me think maybe we should all buy Mag7 stocks after the Trump announcement, because that's the big one. And also, the reason I like Mag7 stocks in this scenario is that who are the Mag7? Does anybody know who are the Mag7? There's a bit of a list out there, right? Who are the Mag7 stocks? OK. Apple? All right. So Apple, do they get affected by tariffs? Yes, they make a lot of their stuff in China and in South Korea and places like that. Microsoft is largely a software company. I know they have a hardware side to it, but it's largely a software company. And there's no talk about tariffs on software at this point. Amazon, well, they don't really make anything, right? They're just a processor of sales, consumer sort of. for transactions, plus AWS and advertising. So again, Amazon, you wouldn't think they'd be that affected. The retail side, maybe a little bit if the US consumer buys less, but not that much. Google, they don't really make anything. It's a software company, right? It's mostly advertising revenue. It doesn't really get affected. Meta, again, it's an advertising company. It doesn't really get affected very much. Now, NVIDIA, okay. Yeah, definitely. There's an element there. Now, they are... on-shoring manufacturing into the US, which might buy them some exemptions possibly. And Tesla, yes, about 40% of their components are foreign. But that is still better than every other car company out there in the world. Much, much better. It's usually about 70%. Tesla is the only US car company that actually manufactures their cars sold in the US inside the US. Now, could they still get hit by stuff, sentiment and so on? Yeah. But they manufacture the European cars in Europe. in Germany. They manufacture their cars, they sell in China, in China. So it's probably more about supply chain for them. So these guys are not as badly hit as you'd think, especially the software names in there, right? And therefore, I think this is quite useful. Palantir, yeah, I think they'll actually benefit from it because people will need to like reject their supply chains and who are they going to go to, you know, who they're going to call? Ghostbusters, right? Palantir. What are you going to buy? Well, my only request to you is don't buy a thing until you've watched this because it'll walk you off the ledge of all the brilliant ideas you've got running through your head today. Today and tomorrow is a very, very, very high risk day. And it's that VIX chart I showed you. Fear is at insane levels, like massive, massive pre-market crash levels. It doesn't mean you have to get the crash, but this is where they are. So smart investors, rational, reasonable investors, don't gamble. We don't think, but this could be the big opportunity. If I miss this one, it'd be a shame. It's not how this works. We have to look at what gives us the safest, highest return rather than the casino thing. If you want to go to a casino, go to a casino, but just don't take that much money with you. How about the big software companies not in the Mark 7? Yeah, same story. Same story. I think software should do quite well out of this. And generally, obviously, all companies that don't really sell internationally should also do quite well out of this. Another point for the Mark 7 is that the dollar is getting weaker, which actually makes them more valuable. Slightly odd, but it does. So now we've walked through that. Who feels a little bit clearer? Who feels a little bit happier? Just write happy in the chat. And we can ask Winston as well. Winston, are you feeling a little happier? Are you feeling a little bit happier, my friend? Working out? So, George is unhappy. You're unhappy because the market's down, right? Michelle is happy. We've got some smileys there. Brilliant. Okay, we've got some optimistic smileys there. Happy, happy, happy, happy, glad and happy. Okay, cool. That's all I wanted. That's all I could ask for today. I appreciate it. It doesn't feel good when futures are down 1.3%. The VIX is up 5%. Pre-market looks like this after Friday, which that was Friday. That wasn't much better, right? So this morning is not looking pretty. Now, in my opinion, it's just the fire before it gets better. That's my, that will be my best guess. That doesn't mean I'm buying this. No, because... It could go lower. So I'm going to wait for El Presidente to announce the tariffs on Wednesday. And then I'll probably wait another day to see if he changes his mind because he's done that before. And that way we'll see how the market digests this. And then hopefully at the end of the week, I can start buying some good stuff at discounted prices. And I don't need this to be the absolute bottom. I just need it to be in a place where my rules that I learned from guys who've done this for like 50 years. been making money for 50 years, I trust those rules. Why? Because they've worked for 50 years. And anything else, in my opinion, is gambling. And I don't do that. I don't gamble ever at all. So the sweet smell of a dumpster fire, exactly. Should we also wait for the 4th of April part from the Wednesday? Depends on how patient you want to be. Let's just see what comes out on Wednesday. Let's see how muted the reaction is or not. Kroger is up. Yeah, there are some consumer non-durables up a little bit. Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Pepsi. And that's a little bit of a safety flight. And I think if you think about it, what companies can absorb price hikes, cost increases? It's the ones with the strongest brand, right? If Coca-Cola costs an extra 10 cent or something, I don't think it'll have a big impact on sales because people are addicted to it. Philip Morris, they are addicted to it. Pepsi, they're pretty much addicted to it. Procter & Gamble, not that different. So yeah, there is some value in owning some of these stocks, which is why I own some of these stocks. Why not short, says Colin. What if Trump comes out in an hour and says, I've come to a trade agreement with the apparatchiks in Europe, with Canada and my favorite Mexicans, and there won't be any tariffs on any of those. And I'm going to go play golf for the rest of the week. Market goes up 10%, you're short. Why would you do it? The moment is just so high risk that it doesn't make any sense. It just doesn't make sense to do anything here. And everybody I know who's running hedge funds and is in prop shops and banks and so on, they're all just going, doing very little. Quite happy doing very little. They're looking around for ideas and so on, but they're doing very little. Because that's kind of the smart thing to do. Most people have probably already set up their hedges. bought the puts and all that kind of stuff. Because we've known about this date for some time now. So my feeling is, and obviously you're going to come to your own conclusions, if you're in a stock like Tesla or something and you haven't sold it yet, if you've got a long enough time horizon, it's probably a little late to sell it, a lot too late. You've run through about three red lights. And again, you can learn those three red lights if you... Just go and watch this, felixfence.org slash get free. And that is what I would do with this time, honestly. Today and tomorrow, I would just use the pain of the red and the not wanting to look at the portfolio as a motivator that this never happens to you again. That's it. That's the only way to, that's the, that's how we should use stress as a motivator. Stress is very, very motivating if it's used correctly. So use it to get better. Don't use it to stick your head in the sand or have the extra beer tonight. Like it isn't going to improve anything. So you've got to move away from, maybe you don't have to, but maybe you want to move away from being dependent on what politicians are doing or the Fed or the market and move towards, well, here's what I'm doing. And here's how I am doing well, regardless of what they're doing. That's really what it's all about. High risk, high reward. High risk is usually high losses. If we bought stocks before learning the rules, do we sell and wait? I think I pretty much addressed that one. Everybody should invest in a dog. I think that's very, very true. I got this one for free here, completely free. And he's very good as a financial advisor. He also eats you out of house and home and eats about three and a half hours of exercise a day. Cal without the extra beer. That is not what I said, is it? Ford breaks down after the third. Okay, that's a bit random. Gold has done a whole ton of hype. Yeah, absolutely. And I think, you know, gold's done very well. I'm glad to have a little bit of it. Now you've got to ask yourself, is this the moment to buy it or is your moment to buy gold when everybody hates it? Right, just putting it out there. And Microsoft has such a 52-week load, just John. Yeah, and a lot of them are doing exactly that. biggest stickers military stocks are up yeah and i think you know war always pays uh out of europe you know there's probably some stuff in europe european defense contractors and so on that might still be be be worth a rally but um yeah u.s market there's there's very little right now there's very very little right now let me see if we got do we get any breakouts on friday i didn't even look let me have a look let me see breakouts you Gold stock, gold stock. What does WR Berkeley do? Is that energy or something? What do they do? Does anybody know? Insurance? Insurance term, what is it? I don't know what they do. No idea. What's the sector? It's finance. Okay. Some sort of probably insurance, I guess. That's nice. Yeah. But that's pretty much the only thing that I can see out there. Finance. Thanks very much, Klaus. It does say it at the top here, doesn't it? Which is probably why I should have looked first. Somebody want to see Winston? Are we buying more Microsoft? Okay. Walmart's up a little bit. We're going to have a look at some of our favorite. you know, sort of tech stocks here. Palantir, that's a gap down this morning. Ouch. That's actually a gap down. That's pretty, pretty harsh, right? That's just the market sentiment for you. So retail is probably selling there a little bit. That's why that's happening. SoFi, that's a gap down here this morning. Tesla, Tesla is gapping down here this morning below the support line at 250. And if you want to get these support lines, by the way, go to FelixVanZer.com because they are super useful. And anything else you want us to look at? Nvidia, that's a massive gap down here. That's really, really not pretty. Below the previous lows from 11th of March. Everything is a gap down. Archer, it's doing a little bit better than most, but still down 3%. Nike is green, is it? 0.1%. I wouldn't really... I wouldn't really celebrate that. Lowest low in I don't know how many decades. So I wouldn't really be celebrating that one. Coca-Cola is up. Yeah, some of those stocks are up. Coca-Cola, Pepsi, P&G are up a little bit. But most things are just absolutely down. With the exception of... Things we run into when we panic, which is gold, for example, which is having a tremendous run up here. And US steel. Well, you'd think that they would benefit potentially from tariffs, but they're also down 3% this morning. What about the other ones you guys are throwing in here? Bilal, if you write the same ticker like 10 times, I will just ignore you. And if you do it one more time, I'll kick you out. It's that kind of a morning here. And Celsius is up 4%. Okay. Decent. Pretty decent. It obviously still has this pain profile here. So is that a breakout? Almost. Still below the 200, right? It's slightly above the 200. Okay. But if it takes out these levels here at sort of 35 and it finds some volume, then I think it would be a breakout. But at the moment, it's lacking the volume and it's still at the 200. What's with that blue bottled water trend thing? I mean, they're selling water, right? What's that all about? Visa, ouch, that's also down 1.7%. What about Meta? I think that's looking much better. I see a drop below, gap down below the 200-day moving average here. That's a pretty hideous sight. So today is panic day. Everybody's freaking out. And it could be a glorious opportunity. But so do we buy the panic on the way down? No, no, no, we don't do that. Let me go back in time a little bit here. Okay, look at, for example, the gap down here in February 2022, right? Did we buy that straight away? No, no, we don't do that. We wait for us to recover and for this to turn into a rally again. And the moment that I would have called there would be that gap up here, back through that 200-day moving average line, volume spiking up. So you would have exited here, which was... at about, okay, I can draw it. So if you bought in here to there, you would have made 33% by selling and buying in again. That's pretty good, right? So that's the beauty of a dip. Wait till the Orange Man talks. I think that's wise advice. I think that's honestly the best advice today is when the market is freaking out. Now, how do you know it's freaking out? You go into tradevision.io and you open this index. And it is called the VIX index. It is the fear index. And you don't need any indicators on this. And when that thing is above 20, you go back to bed. Well, unless you've learned how to trade this, but that's a little bit beyond what we can do here today because that's a little bit more complex. And we do make money out of this, by the way. We make money out of this. When it goes up, we make money out of this. When it comes down, both directions. And that's a really fun way to make money. But yeah, it's gapped up here as a 24. So it's significantly above the sort of 20 safety zone. And therefore, we do bugger all today, which is, I think, a good thing to do. When you buy the dip, if not now, when this thing comes back down below 20, and when stocks like, you know, say you wanted to buy Meta, right? That was the last example we saw. Meta is right now trading below all of his key moving average lines. You don't want to buy it there because when it's below the 200, it can go a lot lower. Look at what happened the last time it meaningfully dropped below the 200-day moving average line. That was here and it was up here. It dropped another, I need to get this on the chart, dropped another 72%. Do you want to buy something that might drop another 72%? Why? Why? Why, why, why, right? So what you're going to learn is how to time the entry and understand that you will not be buying at the bottom because you don't know where the bottom is until the bottom is behind you, right? So I'm doing nothing. And I'm going to enjoy this. I'm going to smile. If it goes much lower, we'll get stocks much cheaper, which means we get richer faster. And if it rebounds quickly, also brilliant, means we're having fun again and we're trading more actively. So it's basically a win either way. What do you think about straddles right now? I'm just very cautious with everything right now. Just earlier there. I'm just very cautious with everything right now. I don't see the point in risking money. Your job basically is get to the end of the week with the same amount of money that you've got. That is a huge win. If you can do that, well done. Anything you can do in between could jeopardize that significantly. So don't put it all on red or black or whatever, because it could be very, very, very dangerous. And hopefully, I'll put as it comes in with a better announcement than we think. And we're off partying again on Thursday. But until we know that, until we know the market reaction to it, sit tight. That's what I'd say. So go and learn. Take today and tomorrow. Just don't open the portfolio. There's absolutely zero benefit. Instead, go and learn and go to FelixVanZelok.com and learn the actual rules that some of the most successful traders out there have been using for like since the 70s. That's how long we're talking here, like 50 years. And it's free. FelixVanZelok.com and you'll stop missing out on the rally. You won't miss the rally that way. You'll actually know when to buy with confidence. And also next time we dip, you know when to sell, which is equally important. I wish you and Winston wishes you a beautiful day. Winston, any thoughts? Any final thoughts? He looks a bit chilly, doesn't he? I'll get him a blanket and I wish you a beautiful day.

You don't want to know. But what I want to do in the spirit of learning and getting better and persevering, apart from this being obviously a general. psychiatric session for all of us loons in the market. I want to actually give you seven or eight insights that will make you into a better informed investor that will allow you to make better decisions today and for the rest of the week and generally set you up for a glorious, exciting and very, very, very profitable 2025, which I think is on the cards for us.

So I'm going to share my screen here with you. And there we are. So we're planning this.

Why is the market actually falling again today? And if you don't believe it's falling, well, avert your eyes. This is not for children. Ouch, right? Ouch, is what I say.

This is the pre-market, pretty hideous stuff. So why is it actually going down? Are stocks actually cheap? Is this maybe an opportunity? Could the optimists here be buying the dip?

And are they? Because I've got the data, I can tell you whether or not retail investors are buying the dip, and I will tell you that in just a minute or so. And are you buying the dip?

And should you? Isn't that the real question that's running through your head, right? We're going to get there at number four. And then what's Wall Street doing?

Do they expect a crash here right now? And what is the one thing, literally the one thing that the pros are watching to tell them when the market goes from catastrophe to opportunity? And I will show you one more thing that you will never be able to unsee again and ask you whether you're still bullish after that one.

And then what if, and this is a question I want to end here with, what if the bubble has already burst? What if we're already at the bottom? What if this is already the opportunity?

Is that possible? Well, let's have a look at that in a moment. And then I should add to this glorious list, we will do our utmost to do a wonderful Q&A.

Obviously, you can ask me all about your favorite stocks and your major concerns, and also mostly about how Winston is coping with it all. Seems a bit serious, doesn't it? So there we are. Golden Betriebers are now off screen. There he is.

Is he on screen again? He's still hiding his face. So let's see where this takes us in terms of information. And by the way, if you guys would find these eight points useful, just write useful in the chat. And that way I know this is something that would give you some value.

And therefore I'll do more of these kind of educational early morning run-throughs here again. Velvet ears, indeed, yes. All right, so let's run through this here then.

And so why is the market falling again? It's this chap. He's at it again.

I'll take Winston off the screen here for a moment. He seems to be watching. Are you watching, Winston?

Are you paying attention? Maybe we can get some insight out of that one. He's got a very calm head. Okay, we're seeing a lot of use faults here. Brilliant.

Fantastic. Loving that. Lots of use faults. Lots of use faults. The market's falling because of this guy.

He said... That on tariff day, freedom day, as he calls it, across the table, tariffs on everything and everybody is an option again, which would mean across the board tariffs of 20%. That's sort of the original thought.

And we kind of thought, hey, he walked away from that last week. It's going to be fine. It'll just be fine. And then on Friday, we got some jitters because he made some statements.

And then over the weekend, this is what the Wall Street Journal just put out. Which is why the market looks so hideous this morning. So now you know.

We're worried about bigger than expected tariffs again, suddenly, right? It's the Trump flip-flop at its finest. So let me ask you this then.

What if stocks are actually already cheap? This is data from Goldman Sachs, a big Wall Street bank. And they look mostly not at current PE numbers, because current PE numbers is backwards looking, right? Because the E... So the P stands for price, right?

This isn't really intuitive. So let me write this out. The E stands for profit.

I mean, they call it earnings, but it's the same thing as profit. I always think this should be the PP ratio. I think it'd be a lot easier, but it might sound a bit silly perhaps.

So they look at forward earnings, which means we're looking at next year's profits. So next year's. expected profits rather than last year's. And which makes a lot of sense, actually, if you think about it, because some of you guys want to, a little bit less Winston is being requested. There he is.

He'll disappear. You guys can vote on that. There we go. And if you want more Winston, let me know. If you want less Winston, write, I don't know, cats or something in the chat.

And I'll know what you mean. So what they're saying is, if you look at this chart, and let me make this a little bit bigger for you. The light. blue ziggety-zaggety line is the S&P 500, so the index. They're forward multiples.

So how expensive is it, right? And then they have these sort of little dotted lines in here, these ones, which are sort of the top of the trading range and the bottom of the trading range. It's a bit like a Bollinger Band. Have you seen that sort of thing before? So we were at the top of the trading range here and here and here.

And right now, well, we're at the bottom of the trading range. Now, the only thing with that is that right now we're trading at a 20x. So 20 times next year's earnings.

At the last dip, which was 2024, we were at 17x. In 2022, we bottomed out at 15x. In 2020, that was COVID.

We bottomed out at 13x. I mean, the world was ending, right? 2019, we were at 14x down here.

So does that mean stocks are cheap? Well, I think the thing that's important to understand here is that We haven't actually had any terrible economic news. There isn't a big bank that's failed. There isn't a run on mortgages. There isn't some sort of catastrophic collapse out there.

The economy is relatively strong. There is more or less full unemployment. Inflation is stable.

I mean, it's not like, you know, it's an insane level. We're expecting two to three rate cuts this year. So it's a lot of stuff that's pretty good.

Earnings are coming in pretty solid, right? No one's going like, oh my God, it's all over. And... Therefore, everything that's happening here right now is based on one thing and one thing only, not fundamentals, not the economy, not some data point.

It's all based on one word, fear. Fear that what's coming on Wednesday, the tariff announcements, that they will be so terrible, it's going to like just shake everything. And if they're not that terrible, guess what's going to happen? Right? You put it in the chat.

Let me know what you think is going to happen if the announcement is less terrible than expected. Now, what about you lot? Are you still buying the dip?

When was the last time you bought the dip? Let me know in the chat. Just put the date in or put the weekday in or whatever.

When was the last time you bought the dip? I wanted to buy the dip on Friday and then I looked at the data and I'll show you that very data point that changed my mind. There's one data point on Friday that's changed and I'll show you that because that is the number one thing that the pros look at here.

OK, rally. Yeah, exactly. That's what we would expect. If the announcement on Wednesday, if the tariffs are not horrible, I mean, not like just like world ending, you know, then the market will probably recover.

Now, you, of course, have to bear in mind with Donald J. Trump, his negotiation style is confuse the opposition until they just give in. Right. That seems to be the style. Honestly, he wrote a book, I want to say, in the late 80s, early 90s, called The Art of the Deal.

it's a very good book. I'd read it. If you loathe the guy, I'd still read it because you understand how he thinks, you understand how he works.

And it's actually quite entertaining. I read it like maybe 20 years ago. So our retailer investors buying the dip.

Okay. Some of you did. Don, you bought on Tuesday.

Ryan, you bought some two weeks back. Okay. Most of you are not that enthused about buying the dip.

And that's exactly what we're seeing here, that we've had a lot of dip buying. In February, we had an extraordinary amount of dip buying into this, you know, mini crash that we're in. There's not really a crash crash yet. It's just like in that. But what do you see at the top there?

Can you see that? Can you see that there? It sort of goes up and then it kind of does that, right? It's like a little hook. And that means retail is going, I'm not so sure about it.

And retail has been holding up this, retail has been holding up this. market, even though it didn't feel like it, because the hedge funds were out the door on day one. So that concerns me a little bit, but that's actually not the data point that I'm worried about.

I'm just saying sentiment there isn't so great. So are you going to be buying the dip and should you? I guess I asked you that, right?

Honestly, my answer to that is very simple. Don't buy a thing unless you've watched this. And what is this? This is the tried and tested rules.

Some of the most successful traders and investors out there have used since the 70s. Yeah, since the 70s. I didn't invent this.

I learned it from my mentors. I've tweaked it a little bit because the markets have changed and evolved and things move a bit more quickly now than they used to. But ultimately, the question is always, when do you buy, right? When do you buy and when do you sell?

Now, the selling part is actually the hardest thing. As you've experienced the last two weeks, you're like, it's going down. I don't want to sell it. Now it's down 10%.

Now it's down 20%. I don't want to sell it now. Or what if it goes down some more?

Maybe I should sell it at minus 30%, right? It's all the stuff that's going on ahead. So we automate that. And I show you exactly how we do that if you watch this masterclass. And it's free.

It takes 15 minutes and you will literally learn those two rules. You will never look at a stock chart the same way again. You'll never look at your portfolio the same way again.

And I'll tell you, you'll sleep a lot better tonight. That's my promise to you. It's completely free. FelixFrenzel.org slash get free.

So if you want to get free from all the stress and ultimately get to financial freedom and make your money work for you so you don't have to and all that good stuff that comes from having your money work well, go to FelixFrenzel.org slash get free. And if you're going to go and watch that, just write free in the chat. Just write free in the chat and I see that you're going to go and do that. And if you leave this video right now and do that, I would be thrilled.

I would be absolutely thrilled to say, Felix, free, I'm off. Right? Because that's more important than actually the news or the data today. If you don't understand the big picture and the big rules and the patterns that drive the markets, today's news isn't going to really help you that much.

It just turns you into a news junkie who feels like they're doing something useful. But ultimately, the only useful thing is to learn the skills. It's like, you know, if I watch somebody chop wood, I probably still wouldn't be able to chop wood.

I have not tried to chop wood, but I have an inkling that I won't be very good at it. Winston, do you think I'll be good at chopping wood? Is that the face of confidence in his master? I have my doubts. So, Mark, free of my first call today.

Brilliant, my friend. David says free. Lots of frees in here.

Brilliant rules. Fantastic. Already done that, says Luis.

Roberto says free. Fantastic. Okay, the Japanese, we can get onto those in a moment as well, my friends. Natural lumberjack.

Me, clearly, right? I mean, it's the way I'm built, isn't it? I did work out today with my crazy calisthenics coach from Israel, but that's a bit of a different skill. Now, does Wall Street expect a crash? I always like to look to Wall Street because I'm very lucky.

Winston has insider access to some of the greatest minds on Wall Street and he gets all the analysts, reports and stuff. He's very popular over there. So therefore, I get access to them.

And it gives us the kind of stuff that I used to get in the morning meetings. What's a morning meeting? Every bank, every trading floor, every investment bank, every hedge fund has a morning meeting. It's typically at 7 a.m.

before the market opens. And somebody wise and older and more experienced who's been awake through the night will tell you what happens and what's going on and what you need to know so you make better decisions. And that's kind of my goal here.

John thinks I wear high heels. John, I'm more worried about what's going on in your head now than in mine. Okay, so this is Goldman Sachs, and this is their forecast, right?

This is just out, like out today. And what they're saying is that they think in the next three months, and maybe I'll magnify this. This is what we've just had, right? I'll put in green in here, or maybe in red, the expectation.

It looks a bit like this. So we have the dip to 5,300 on the S&P. And then in 12 months, they think we're going to be back at 5,900, which isn't quite above where we were, but it's relatively decent. And what do they base that on?

Well, they've got this blue line on here. Because they only use blue and blue. It's a special thing when you work at Goldman Sachs. I don't know what it is. But you see this line, right?

This line here. This line is Monty Python, yes. Now, they're basing that on earnings per share. So EPS, earnings per share, profit per share. And because that's going to continue to go up, we'd expect the market to broadly go up.

That's basically what they're saying. And of course, I think they're right in the long term. I don't know whether we're going to go this low.

I don't know whether we're going to go all the way down here. Time will tell. But that's what the smart money is thinking, that we're going to have this three months correction and then we're going to go back to Nirvana.

Does that make some sense to you? By the way, does that make some sense to you? If that makes some sense to you, put the number one in the chat. And then just a one.

And that way I'll know that this is making some sense to you. Scott, you're a lumberjack, are you? Good at chopping wood. It sounds, it looks very satisfying.

So I'm going to have to get myself an axe and do that somewhere. I could do that in France, I think. In Hong Kong, you don't really, we don't really have, it's not cold enough to have fires. What do you do in France? I'll post the video of me chopping firewood.

Okay, lots of ones. Brilliant. Brilliant, my friends.

Glad to hear it. And be honest about those, by the way. It doesn't have to land completely, just if it lands somewhat. Okay, this is an indicator that I always think about. Should I show this to you?

When I ask people, they always say, don't show this to people, because people, they won't understand, they won't appreciate it, and it'll just confuse them, and it's probably not for the masses. That's literally what... What the banking guys say. That's how they think.

They think of you as some sort of subspecies. It's horrendous. But that's kind of the reality of many of them. Now, what is this saying?

And what the heck is this? What are we looking at here? Well, we're looking at the good old VIX, the fear indicator. But not the way you normally see it. But up here, in that direction.

So at the top, you have fear. Okay? Lots of fear. Down here, you have happiness. Happy.

Up there is fear. So the higher you go, the more fearful people are. And then to the right, you have the future. Back to the future. Am I writing it?

You can see that, right? Yeah. So where we are right now, and I'll get a different pen here.

This is, whoops, Microsoft, can I change the pen color? So this is today. Today is very, very, very fearful, frightening, one might say, right? Very, very frightening. um ryan what are you doing if you keep doing that we're gonna have to boot you out my friend so don't be a don't be a twit um now what does that mean why is today scarier than say a month or 120 days or 210 days away and does that make sense if you're an investor should you not be more worried for what's happening in like 200 days because you don't know what's going to happen between now and then.

It's like this uncertainty, right? You should be more worried about a long time away than about today because you kind of know what's happening today. So when this is the case, this is a very, very, very unusual pattern. Like in any other day, the market looks like this.

More fear in the future, very little fear right now. Does that make some sense to you? Seriously, let me know because this is a little complex.

Put a one in the chat here. Okay. Michelle, I used to work at a bank.

Sometimes the mindset is, yes, it can be. I mean, under the tough exterior, the guys are usually quite, quite, quite, quite nice. But yeah, there is a little bit of that going on there. Okay, I'm seeing some ones in here.

A little bit more hesitant than previously, which is okay. And Ryan, you're reformed. Just the one, the one, one. I appreciate that.

So. This is basically a very unusual situation. Now, when did we have such setups? When did we have such setups? Well, we had such setups just before 2008 market crash, before 2018. We had such setups just before the COVID crash.

I could go on. It's very, very unusual. We had that setup just before last August, August 24. So it can be a very, very good indicator for freak out and panic and run around and scream. Obviously, that isn't very helpful.

Instead, what I would, I use it as is, why don't I just wait another day? See if this gets more normal, which means fear comes down, in which case it's probably a much better time to buy. Because there is a chance. It's not going to 100% correct. There's no such thing as this indicator.

It'll definitely tell you the crash is happening tomorrow. That doesn't exist. What we can look at the charts, and I'll show you that in a moment, is we can look at where do we exit, right?

Where do we sell before the crash? That's 100% accurate. But this is an indicator that tells you, you should probably sit on your hands.

That's what I'm telling me. So that's what I'm going to do today. I'm going to sit on my hands.

I'm not buying a thing. Now, in the meantime, we have some trades on the VIX open, which are making us some very nice money. And that's all good.

But I just wanted to make sure this is useful for you, because this is a little bit out of. This is literally something that, you know, options traders who've done this for like couple of years on Wall Street will look at and most people will not. So let me show you something a little bit more easy then. This is a little bit more easy and I'm asking you a question here, which is, are you still bullish after you see this?

So there's a line on here, which I'm going to just draw in for emphasis. And my line is not perfect, but just so you see it. That is what?

That is the 200-day moving average line, right? If you know what that is, It's just an average. An average of the last 200 days stock prices. Why is it important?

Because all of Wall Street looks at it. Every single trader, every single successful investor and fund manager will look at this. And generally speaking, you want to be above it, right? Now, we have had dips, right? Here was a dip.

There was a dip. There was a dip. And what do you notice?

The market bounces off it. Most of the time, we bounce off it, right? Which is really, really good. Now, What are you seeing right now? And this is like a textbook advanced charting class, basically, which is what I want to give you here.

What do you see the chart doing? Well, we broke below it, we recovered, and then we boing bounced off it down. And that is not, that is not a good signal. Because usually we bounce off the top, right, like here and here.

But here we did the opposite. We bounced against it and it was resistance. People started selling again.

And that makes me feel a little bit nervous, just a teeny tiny bit nervous. Now, Big Motox, they call it Armageddon. I think that's probably a little bit, a little bit exaggerated. Zen says, Tom Lieber leaves stock market will soar after April 2nd. Yes.

And I can see his argument. I would, I would go as far as saying he's being a little, Maybe a little irresponsible with the way he's phrasing that, because I got his email on it yesterday, sort of saying it's kind of guaranteed. I agree that what I said at the top, if the Trump tariffs come in and they're less than fiat, the market will be happy.

Everyone will sing Kumbaya and you're going to be seeing green, green, green in your portfolio. It'll be wonderful. But you don't know that.

It's a binary event, right? It could be good, it could be bad. So the Every successful investor always prepares for the bad news and thinks about how do I benefit from the good news. But if you just think only in wish and only hope for the good news, the bad news happens, you get caught with your trousers down. And that isn't pretty.

So that's the way I would look at that. So does that make some sense to you? Again, put a one in the chat and I'll see if this lands for you as well. And then let me give you some more positive news.

And then I'll take your questions and we can look exactly what's happening live in the market, which opens in seven minutes. John says predicting the market value is like predicting the market crash. Yeah, exactly.

We can only look at the data that we have. We can't predict the data. You know, it's like looking at an indicator and going, well, I think the indicator is going to go up tomorrow. And it's not how this works.

You've got to wait for the indicator to tell you what it's telling you tomorrow. You can't just like, this is nonsense. So I'd be a little bit careful.

Okay, there's a lot of ones here, which I'm loving. Thank you very much. Slightly concerned about the 69, but Paul's put in a three. What does that mean, my friend?

What does that mean, Paul? You're about as confused as this guy, are you, Winston? You think he's, there he is. I mean, there we go. I think he's pretty chilled on the whole thing, isn't he?

Overall, if he's your risk manager, might be a little lax. Might just be a little lax, the whole risk management thing. I used to have a risk manager who, should I say all the story?

I probably shouldn't tell the story. No, I shouldn't tell the story. Anyway, he showed up with two black eyes one morning.

That's all I say on that subject. I could probably get into trouble for that. So what is the bubble?

What if the bubble is done first? Which means what if we're done with the sell-off? And Tom Lee is right.

And the tariffs won't be as terrible. And everything will be green forever after from here, right? Winston's pretty chill about it.

Yeah, he is pretty chill. He's a very, very chill dog, except when there's food around. That's his golden retriever.

I told you this. When we got him first, he kind of couldn't walk very well and stuff because he'd spent his... early time in a cage and he was like not treated very well by wherever he came from and um so we got a physio in because he struggled walking and the physio asked me um is he food motivated and honestly at that moment i just thought just just just get the fuck out because this is a golden retriever is he food motivated is your first question i mean seriously some people you pay money to uh so anyway what this is again with some wisdom here from golden sacks and and They use two lines, right?

One is blue and one is blue because I don't know what goes through the heads of people at Goldman Sachs. It's a very, very specific species of people. So let me explain this to you.

The light blue line is the MAG-7, so the top seven tech stocks out there, right? Yeah, I see feedback. And then in blue, the dark blue, not the other blue, we've got The premium, can you see that?

Can't see that, can you? You've got the premium of the Mark 7 stocks over and above, you know, the S&P, basically. So normally the Mark 7 trade at a premium because they're the better companies, right? I mean, the companies in the S&P 500 that make, I don't know. tins or something.

And I doubt the margin is as good as if you're selling, you know, Microsoft Office subscriptions or something, right? Now, what are we seeing here? Well, zoom in a little bit.

And you're starting to see that the premium, which is the dark blue line, is now down here, right? That green dot. And if I draw a line back, When was the last time it was that low? Well, 2017, we're at those levels.

So the Magnificent Seven are cheaper or as cheap now as they have been in 2017, which is like six, seven years out. So you could therefore argue that this might be near the bottom. And I'm always saying near, I never say the bottom. Nobody knows where the bottom is. If they tell you they know where the bottom is, they're probably a dog sniffing bottoms.

They're the only people who know where bottoms are. I mean. You can't predict the exact bottom of a market.

Impossible. But near, you can deduct. And this makes me think maybe we should all buy Mag7 stocks after the Trump announcement, because that's the big one. And also, the reason I like Mag7 stocks in this scenario is that who are the Mag7?

Does anybody know who are the Mag7? There's a bit of a list out there, right? Who are the Mag7 stocks? OK. Apple?

All right. So Apple, do they get affected by tariffs? Yes, they make a lot of their stuff in China and in South Korea and places like that.

Microsoft is largely a software company. I know they have a hardware side to it, but it's largely a software company. And there's no talk about tariffs on software at this point.

Amazon, well, they don't really make anything, right? They're just a processor of sales, consumer sort of. for transactions, plus AWS and advertising. So again, Amazon, you wouldn't think they'd be that affected.

The retail side, maybe a little bit if the US consumer buys less, but not that much. Google, they don't really make anything. It's a software company, right?

It's mostly advertising revenue. It doesn't really get affected. Meta, again, it's an advertising company. It doesn't really get affected very much.

Now, NVIDIA, okay. Yeah, definitely. There's an element there. Now, they are... on-shoring manufacturing into the US, which might buy them some exemptions possibly.

And Tesla, yes, about 40% of their components are foreign. But that is still better than every other car company out there in the world. Much, much better.

It's usually about 70%. Tesla is the only US car company that actually manufactures their cars sold in the US inside the US. Now, could they still get hit by stuff, sentiment and so on? Yeah. But they manufacture the European cars in Europe.

in Germany. They manufacture their cars, they sell in China, in China. So it's probably more about supply chain for them.

So these guys are not as badly hit as you'd think, especially the software names in there, right? And therefore, I think this is quite useful. Palantir, yeah, I think they'll actually benefit from it because people will need to like reject their supply chains and who are they going to go to, you know, who they're going to call?

Ghostbusters, right? Palantir. What are you going to buy?

Well, my only request to you is don't buy a thing until you've watched this because it'll walk you off the ledge of all the brilliant ideas you've got running through your head today. Today and tomorrow is a very, very, very high risk day. And it's that VIX chart I showed you. Fear is at insane levels, like massive, massive pre-market crash levels. It doesn't mean you have to get the crash, but this is where they are.

So smart investors, rational, reasonable investors, don't gamble. We don't think, but this could be the big opportunity. If I miss this one, it'd be a shame. It's not how this works. We have to look at what gives us the safest, highest return rather than the casino thing.

If you want to go to a casino, go to a casino, but just don't take that much money with you. How about the big software companies not in the Mark 7? Yeah, same story.

Same story. I think software should do quite well out of this. And generally, obviously, all companies that don't really sell internationally should also do quite well out of this.

Another point for the Mark 7 is that the dollar is getting weaker, which actually makes them more valuable. Slightly odd, but it does. So now we've walked through that.

Who feels a little bit clearer? Who feels a little bit happier? Just write happy in the chat.

And we can ask Winston as well. Winston, are you feeling a little happier? Are you feeling a little bit happier, my friend? Working out? So, George is unhappy.

You're unhappy because the market's down, right? Michelle is happy. We've got some smileys there. Brilliant.

Okay, we've got some optimistic smileys there. Happy, happy, happy, happy, glad and happy. Okay, cool.

That's all I wanted. That's all I could ask for today. I appreciate it. It doesn't feel good when futures are down 1.3%. The VIX is up 5%.

Pre-market looks like this after Friday, which that was Friday. That wasn't much better, right? So this morning is not looking pretty.

Now, in my opinion, it's just the fire before it gets better. That's my, that will be my best guess. That doesn't mean I'm buying this. No, because... It could go lower.

So I'm going to wait for El Presidente to announce the tariffs on Wednesday. And then I'll probably wait another day to see if he changes his mind because he's done that before. And that way we'll see how the market digests this. And then hopefully at the end of the week, I can start buying some good stuff at discounted prices. And I don't need this to be the absolute bottom.

I just need it to be in a place where my rules that I learned from guys who've done this for like 50 years. been making money for 50 years, I trust those rules. Why?

Because they've worked for 50 years. And anything else, in my opinion, is gambling. And I don't do that. I don't gamble ever at all. So the sweet smell of a dumpster fire, exactly.

Should we also wait for the 4th of April part from the Wednesday? Depends on how patient you want to be. Let's just see what comes out on Wednesday.

Let's see how muted the reaction is or not. Kroger is up. Yeah, there are some consumer non-durables up a little bit.

Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Pepsi. And that's a little bit of a safety flight. And I think if you think about it, what companies can absorb price hikes, cost increases?

It's the ones with the strongest brand, right? If Coca-Cola costs an extra 10 cent or something, I don't think it'll have a big impact on sales because people are addicted to it. Philip Morris, they are addicted to it. Pepsi, they're pretty much addicted to it.

Procter & Gamble, not that different. So yeah, there is some value in owning some of these stocks, which is why I own some of these stocks. Why not short, says Colin. What if Trump comes out in an hour and says, I've come to a trade agreement with the apparatchiks in Europe, with Canada and my favorite Mexicans, and there won't be any tariffs on any of those. And I'm going to go play golf for the rest of the week.

Market goes up 10%, you're short. Why would you do it? The moment is just so high risk that it doesn't make any sense.

It just doesn't make sense to do anything here. And everybody I know who's running hedge funds and is in prop shops and banks and so on, they're all just going, doing very little. Quite happy doing very little.

They're looking around for ideas and so on, but they're doing very little. Because that's kind of the smart thing to do. Most people have probably already set up their hedges.

bought the puts and all that kind of stuff. Because we've known about this date for some time now. So my feeling is, and obviously you're going to come to your own conclusions, if you're in a stock like Tesla or something and you haven't sold it yet, if you've got a long enough time horizon, it's probably a little late to sell it, a lot too late. You've run through about three red lights. And again, you can learn those three red lights if you...

Just go and watch this, felixfence.org slash get free. And that is what I would do with this time, honestly. Today and tomorrow, I would just use the pain of the red and the not wanting to look at the portfolio as a motivator that this never happens to you again.

That's it. That's the only way to, that's the, that's how we should use stress as a motivator. Stress is very, very motivating if it's used correctly.

So use it to get better. Don't use it to stick your head in the sand or have the extra beer tonight. Like it isn't going to improve anything. So you've got to move away from, maybe you don't have to, but maybe you want to move away from being dependent on what politicians are doing or the Fed or the market and move towards, well, here's what I'm doing. And here's how I am doing well, regardless of what they're doing.

That's really what it's all about. High risk, high reward. High risk is usually high losses. If we bought stocks before learning the rules, do we sell and wait? I think I pretty much addressed that one.

Everybody should invest in a dog. I think that's very, very true. I got this one for free here, completely free. And he's very good as a financial advisor.

He also eats you out of house and home and eats about three and a half hours of exercise a day. Cal without the extra beer. That is not what I said, is it? Ford breaks down after the third. Okay, that's a bit random.

Gold has done a whole ton of hype. Yeah, absolutely. And I think, you know, gold's done very well. I'm glad to have a little bit of it.

Now you've got to ask yourself, is this the moment to buy it or is your moment to buy gold when everybody hates it? Right, just putting it out there. And Microsoft has such a 52-week load, just John.

Yeah, and a lot of them are doing exactly that. biggest stickers military stocks are up yeah and i think you know war always pays uh out of europe you know there's probably some stuff in europe european defense contractors and so on that might still be be be worth a rally but um yeah u.s market there's there's very little right now there's very very little right now let me see if we got do we get any breakouts on friday i didn't even look let me have a look let me see breakouts you Gold stock, gold stock. What does WR Berkeley do? Is that energy or something? What do they do?

Does anybody know? Insurance? Insurance term, what is it? I don't know what they do.

No idea. What's the sector? It's finance.

Okay. Some sort of probably insurance, I guess. That's nice. Yeah. But that's pretty much the only thing that I can see out there.

Finance. Thanks very much, Klaus. It does say it at the top here, doesn't it?

Which is probably why I should have looked first. Somebody want to see Winston? Are we buying more Microsoft?

Okay. Walmart's up a little bit. We're going to have a look at some of our favorite. you know, sort of tech stocks here.

Palantir, that's a gap down this morning. Ouch. That's actually a gap down.

That's pretty, pretty harsh, right? That's just the market sentiment for you. So retail is probably selling there a little bit.

That's why that's happening. SoFi, that's a gap down here this morning. Tesla, Tesla is gapping down here this morning below the support line at 250. And if you want to get these support lines, by the way, go to FelixVanZer.com because they are super useful.

And anything else you want us to look at? Nvidia, that's a massive gap down here. That's really, really not pretty. Below the previous lows from 11th of March.

Everything is a gap down. Archer, it's doing a little bit better than most, but still down 3%. Nike is green, is it?

0.1%. I wouldn't really... I wouldn't really celebrate that. Lowest low in I don't know how many decades.

So I wouldn't really be celebrating that one. Coca-Cola is up. Yeah, some of those stocks are up. Coca-Cola, Pepsi, P&G are up a little bit.

But most things are just absolutely down. With the exception of... Things we run into when we panic, which is gold, for example, which is having a tremendous run up here. And US steel. Well, you'd think that they would benefit potentially from tariffs, but they're also down 3% this morning.

What about the other ones you guys are throwing in here? Bilal, if you write the same ticker like 10 times, I will just ignore you. And if you do it one more time, I'll kick you out.

It's that kind of a morning here. And Celsius is up 4%. Okay. Decent.

Pretty decent. It obviously still has this pain profile here. So is that a breakout? Almost.

Still below the 200, right? It's slightly above the 200. Okay. But if it takes out these levels here at sort of 35 and it finds some volume, then I think it would be a breakout.

But at the moment, it's lacking the volume and it's still at the 200. What's with that blue bottled water trend thing? I mean, they're selling water, right? What's that all about? Visa, ouch, that's also down 1.7%.

What about Meta? I think that's looking much better. I see a drop below, gap down below the 200-day moving average here.

That's a pretty hideous sight. So today is panic day. Everybody's freaking out. And it could be a glorious opportunity. But so do we buy the panic on the way down?

No, no, no, we don't do that. Let me go back in time a little bit here. Okay, look at, for example, the gap down here in February 2022, right?

Did we buy that straight away? No, no, we don't do that. We wait for us to recover and for this to turn into a rally again. And the moment that I would have called there would be that gap up here, back through that 200-day moving average line, volume spiking up.

So you would have exited here, which was... at about, okay, I can draw it. So if you bought in here to there, you would have made 33% by selling and buying in again.

That's pretty good, right? So that's the beauty of a dip. Wait till the Orange Man talks.

I think that's wise advice. I think that's honestly the best advice today is when the market is freaking out. Now, how do you know it's freaking out?

You go into tradevision.io and you open this index. And it is called the VIX index. It is the fear index.

And you don't need any indicators on this. And when that thing is above 20, you go back to bed. Well, unless you've learned how to trade this, but that's a little bit beyond what we can do here today because that's a little bit more complex.

And we do make money out of this, by the way. We make money out of this. When it goes up, we make money out of this.

When it comes down, both directions. And that's a really fun way to make money. But yeah, it's gapped up here as a 24. So it's significantly above the sort of 20 safety zone.

And therefore, we do bugger all today, which is, I think, a good thing to do. When you buy the dip, if not now, when this thing comes back down below 20, and when stocks like, you know, say you wanted to buy Meta, right? That was the last example we saw. Meta is right now trading below all of his key moving average lines.

You don't want to buy it there because when it's below the 200, it can go a lot lower. Look at what happened the last time it meaningfully dropped below the 200-day moving average line. That was here and it was up here.

It dropped another, I need to get this on the chart, dropped another 72%. Do you want to buy something that might drop another 72%? Why?

Why? Why, why, why, right? So what you're going to learn is how to time the entry and understand that you will not be buying at the bottom because you don't know where the bottom is until the bottom is behind you, right?

So I'm doing nothing. And I'm going to enjoy this. I'm going to smile. If it goes much lower, we'll get stocks much cheaper, which means we get richer faster. And if it rebounds quickly, also brilliant, means we're having fun again and we're trading more actively.

So it's basically a win either way. What do you think about straddles right now? I'm just very cautious with everything right now.

Just earlier there. I'm just very cautious with everything right now. I don't see the point in risking money.

Your job basically is get to the end of the week with the same amount of money that you've got. That is a huge win. If you can do that, well done.

Anything you can do in between could jeopardize that significantly. So don't put it all on red or black or whatever, because it could be very, very, very dangerous. And hopefully, I'll put as it comes in with a better announcement than we think.

And we're off partying again on Thursday. But until we know that, until we know the market reaction to it, sit tight. That's what I'd say. So go and learn.

Take today and tomorrow. Just don't open the portfolio. There's absolutely zero benefit.

Instead, go and learn and go to FelixVanZelok.com and learn the actual rules that some of the most successful traders out there have been using for like since the 70s. That's how long we're talking here, like 50 years. And it's free.

FelixVanZelok.com and you'll stop missing out on the rally. You won't miss the rally that way. You'll actually know when to buy with confidence. And also next time we dip, you know when to sell, which is equally important. I wish you and Winston wishes you a beautiful day.

Winston, any thoughts? Any final thoughts? He looks a bit chilly, doesn't he? I'll get him a blanket and I wish you a beautiful day.

Transcript for:Pre-Market Insights for Informed Investing

Transcript for:
Pre-Market Insights for Informed Investing