Market Analysis and Trading Bias

Jul 9, 2025

Summary

  • The session focused on a live walkthrough of developing daily trading bias for S&P 500, Gold (XAUUSD), and GBPUSD (GU), using multi-timeframe technical analysis ahead of the US pre-market open.
  • The host explained bias formation based on market structure, order blocks, liquidity sweeps, and execution strategies on lower timeframes.
  • Plans were set to post the video online and follow up later with a trade recap and results review.
  • Key decisions included current daily biases: bullish on S&P 500, bearish on Gold and GU, with priority setups defined for the trading day.

Action Items

  • As soon as possible – Host: Upload the daily bias boot camp video to YouTube once internet allows.
  • In 2-3 hours – Host: Record and upload the trade recap video reviewing the day’s actual trades and outcomes.

Daily Bias Methodology and Market Analysis

  • Started with top-down analysis: weekly timeframe for overall direction, then daily to determine actionable bias for trade setups.
  • Noted S&P 500 breaking structure to the upside on the monthly and daily, despite a fundamental bearish view, requiring an unbiased bullish bias for trading.
  • Emphasized importance of not forcing personal bias—trade according to market structure and price action.
  • GU (GBPUSD): Weekly trend considered bullish, but Daily structure bearish—priority to seek short setups on GU pending 15-minute break of structure for confirmation.
  • Gold (XAUUSD): Both weekly and daily trends confirmed bearish; currently retracing—look for short setups when retracement completes and price hits defined liquidity/imbalance zones.

Trading Execution and Setup Identification

  • For S&P 500, focus is on identifying longs, as all major timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly) are bullish. Waiting for price to fill imbalances and sweep liquidity before scaling down to 5-min/1-min for break of structure and low-risk entries.
  • For GU and Gold, awaiting retracement to high-confluence zones (order blocks, imbalances) followed by break of structure on lower timeframes for entry confirmation.
  • Highlighted the use of multiple timeframe building blocks: order blocks, fair value gaps, and liquidity sweeps for high probability entries.
  • No trades planned on GJ due to sloppy structure.

Decisions

  • S&P 500 daily bias is bullish — Despite fundamental concerns, technical structure across all major timeframes supports long positions.
  • Gold and GU daily bias is bearish — Technical structure on daily/weekly confirms the preference for short setups.

Open Questions / Follow-Ups

  • Will post-trade recap confirm the effectiveness of the daily bias methodology for today’s setups?
  • Will GU provide a 15-minute break of structure to confirm a short entry as anticipated?
  • Will Gold retrace far enough to high-confluence zones to offer a short entry?