Summary
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit China on August 31, 2025, for the SCO Summit in Tianjin, marking his first trip to China since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. This visit comes amid escalating US economic pressure, particularly from President Trump’s tariff threats targeting both India and China. The situation has prompted cautious diplomatic engagement between India and China, as both countries respond similarly to US trade actions. The evolving dynamic may reshape regional alliances and impact US influence in Asia.
Action Items
- None noted in the article.
Context: Modi’s Planned Visit to China and Diplomatic Recalibration
- Modi will attend the SCO Summit in Tianjin, China, on August 31, 2025, his first visit since the Galwan Valley border clash in 2020.
- Recent visits to China by India's External Affairs and Defence Ministers signal a deliberate, cautious reset in India-China relations.
- The diplomatic recalibration is driven by increasing US economic pressure, notably from President Trump’s tariff escalation targeting Indian imports from Russia.
US Tariff Actions and Global Economic Pressures
- Trump has imposed major tariffs under Section 301 and is considering up to 250% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, directly affecting India, a leading supplier of generics to the US.
- Additional duties have been threatened on Indian goods due to India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil, with Trump demanding closer alignment with US policy.
- US-China relations remain tense, with reciprocal tariffs reaching as high as 145% for Chinese goods and 125% for US goods, and a temporary truce reducing these to ~30% pending an August 12 deadline.
Converging Responses from India and China
- Both India and China responded strongly and similarly to US trade actions, condemning the US’s approach and highlighting perceived double standards, especially regarding continued Western trade with Russia.
- Chinese state media have supported India’s stance on Russian oil, underscoring India’s independent foreign policy and economic needs.
Strategic Implications: From Rivalry to Pragmatic Engagement
- Despite historical mistrust and unresolved border disputes, India and China may seek pragmatic coexistence in response to external economic threats.
- The SCO Summit provides a platform for diplomatic engagement, though no direct Modi-Xi bilateral meeting is confirmed.
- Trump’s threats of secondary sanctions for supporting Russia may further encourage informal dialogue among India, China, and Russia.
Impact on US Strategy in Asia
- India’s centrality to US Indo-Pacific strategy is challenged by the current trade war rhetoric, potentially jeopardizing bipartisan efforts to bolster India as a counterweight to China.
- Antagonizing India risks driving it closer to China, potentially weakening US influence and creating space for Russia and China to expand their regional roles.
Decisions
- India to attend SCO Summit in China — signals a diplomatic thaw and potential for quiet diplomacy amidst external economic pressure.
Open Questions / Follow-Ups
- Will Modi and Xi Jinping hold a bilateral meeting or substantial discussions during the SCO Summit?
- How will the US respond if India and China increase engagement in response to US tariff threats?
- What impact will the August 12 US-China tariff truce deadline have on the broader regional diplomatic landscape?