Conflict in Ethiopia

Overview

• Tensions in Ethiopia's Tigray region are escalating, with fears of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
• TPLF and TIA are in a power struggle, leading to violent clashes in Tigray.
• Eritrea is reportedly supporting dissident TPLF factions.
• Incomplete implementation of the Pretoria Agreement is contributing to instability.

Background

Tigray War (2020-2022)

• The war in Tigray was one of the deadliest recent conflicts, marked by alleged war crimes and human rights abuses.
• TPLF was a dominant political force in Ethiopia under Meles Zenawi (1991-2012).
• Ethiopia and Eritrea had a frozen conflict post-1998-2000 war.

Political Changes

• Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister in 2018, promising ethnic harmony.
• Ethnic tensions rose again by 2020, leading to conflict.

Military Conflict

• The Mekelle Offensive began in November 2020 after Tigrayan troops allegedly attacked a federal military camp.
• Eritrea intervened on the side of the Ethiopian government.

Recent Developments

Pretoria Agreement (2022)

• Aimed to disarm Tigrayan troops and allow humanitarian access.
• Eritrean forces still present in Ethiopia.

Political and Ethnic Tensions

• Instability persisted post-agreement, with ongoing ethnic violence.
• Ethiopia's aim for sea access is causing friction with Eritrea.

Regional Implications

• Ethiopia-Sudan tensions over Al Fashaga region, linked to Nile River dam dispute.
• Tigray's destabilization affects the entire Horn of Africa.

Conclusion

• Ethiopia faces significant challenges with ongoing ethnic conflicts and geopolitical tensions.
• The risk of regional war with Eritrea is increasing.
• Humanitarian and political measures are crucial to stabilize the region.