Lecture by Kishore Mahbubani at Harvard Kennedy School

Albert H. Gordon Lecture Introduction

Event: Albert H. Gordon Lecture, established in 1987 by Mr. Gordon, focusing on finance and public policy, especially internationalization.
Speaker: Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished public servant, academician, and author from Singapore.

Career Highlights of Kishore Mahbubani

Graduated with First Class Honors in philosophy from National University of Singapore.
Master’s and Honorary Doctorate from Dalhousie University, Canada.
Fellowship at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.
Worked in Singapore Foreign Service (1971-2004) with postings in Cambodia, Malaysia, Washington DC, New York.
Held positions: Permanent Secretary at Singapore’s Foreign Ministry, Dean of Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, President of the U.N. Security Council.
Prolific author of books on geopolitics and international relations.

Personal Relationship with David Ellwood

Both served as Deans around the same time at Kennedy School and Lee Kuan Yew School.
Close friendship developed since their first meeting in Davos.

Mahbubani's Work and Influence

Recognized as a top thinker by Prospect magazine in 2014.
Known for challenging perspectives on the shift of global power from West to East.

Main Lecture Topics

Approach to the Lecture

Mahbubani intends to answer three key questions and relate three stories in the financial world to explain these points.
Key themes: China’s goals and aspirations, U.S.-China relationship, and implications of American and Chinese behavior as global powers.

Story 1: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009

U.S. reliance on China to buy Treasury bills during the crisis, followed by the Federal Reserve's QE measures, shocked China by undermining their interdependence.
Significance: Showcase of U.S.'s unilateral action and its global financial influence.

Story 2: Prosecution of Foreign Banks

U.S. prosecuted several foreign banks using its laws extraterritorially, impacting international banks like Standard Chartered, which broke no UK laws but was fined under U.S. law.
Significance: Illustration of U.S. leveraging its legal influence globally.

Story 3: SWIFT System

Threats to deny Russia access to the SWIFT system led to severe reactions, highlighting the importance and control of global financial systems.
Significance: Depicts the strategic leverage of financial systems in geopolitics.

China’s Goals and Aspirations

Emphasis on restoring Chinese civilization, not promoting communism globally.
Driven by a desire to prevent future humiliation and revive national pride.
The idea of a “Chinese Civilization Party” rather than a Communist Party to emphasize cultural rejuvenation.
Prospective contributions in various spheres without aggressive foreign policy intervention.

U.S.-China Relations

Remarkably stable relationship despite potential tensions due to strategic and economic rivalries.
Brought about by U.S.'s prudent management and China’s cautious diplomacy.
Significant role of educational and cultural exchanges, fostering mutual understanding.
Examples: U.S. support in WTO, Taiwan sensitivity, American education of Chinese elites (275,000 Chinese students in U.S. universities).

Influence of U.S. Actions on China’s Behavior

U.S. unilateral actions in international affairs often undermined global institutions, setting concerning precedents for China’s future behavior as a global leader.
Example: AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) - U.S.'s failed attempt to block its creation, showing a shift in global strategic alliances and diminishing U.S. influence.
Bill Clinton's advice: Strengthening multilateral rules and processes is beneficial for future global stability, even when U.S. is no longer number one.

Questions and Answers (Q&A)

Middle East Role: China seeks stability in the Middle East but avoids direct interventions compared to U.S. approaches.
Millennials' Role: Millennials should focus on global interdependence, advocate new global governance models, and understand changing dynamics beyond national borders.
Chinese Universities and Education: China is investing heavily in education with a focus on quality improvement to eventually match leading global institutions. American universities' role in training global elites has contributed to peace and stability in East Asia.
Future of Hong Kong and Taiwan: Expected to maintain autonomy and thrive economically despite political challenges, benefiting from broader regional prosperity.
Western Perception of China: Bridging the public perception gap through broader exposure to non-Western perspectives and increased understanding of Asian viewpoints.
Economic Goals of China: Predicted sustained growth through a shift to internal consumption and leveraging strong institutions and infrastructure; preparedness for economic transitions.
Impact of AIIB: Seen as a strategic move for infrastructure development rather than undermining the U.S. dollar, but future economic dynamics could challenge the global reserve currency status.
Democracy Prospects in China: Expected gradual move towards democracy; non-proselytizing nature will lead to influence by example rather than imposition.
China’s Future Global Role: Potential for a China-led world with different cultural and political norms, focused on deeds over words.
China-U.S. Relations 15-25 Years: Likely closer economic race with China potentially leading; necessity to anticipate and address a shrinking global share for the U.S. in economic output.

Conclusion

Embrace the evolving global dynamics with strategic foresight and strengthening of multilateral institutions for a stable, cooperative international order.