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Global Battery Supply and Geopolitical Dynamics

Dec 24, 2024

Battery Supply: It's China, and Everyone Else

Introduction

  • China dominates the global battery production market.
  • Key discussions at the International Battery Seminar focused on supply chain development in North America for future EV (Electric Vehicle) targets.

Investment Needs

  • North America requires $50 billion for raw materials and $20 billion for midstream processes by 2030 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence).
  • Globally, $580 billion needed by the end of the decade for lithium battery industry:
    • $130 billion for battery materials (anodes, cathodes, electrolytes, separators).

Energy Transition

  • Transition involves legacy oil, gas industries, renewables, and new energy techs (fusion, fission).
  • Critical materials (nickel, lithium, cobalt) must scale 3-10 times for competitiveness.

Global Battery Production

  • 2023 battery production: 1.1 TWh globally.
    • China: 904.5 GWh
    • USA: 52.9 GWh
    • Europe: 44.6 GWh
    • East Asia: 49.8 GWh

Geopolitics and Competitiveness

  • Challenge for GM and Ford to compete with Chinese companies.
  • Regional supply chains crucial for EV ambitions.
  • Inflation Reduction Act (August 2022) boosted North American battery capacity by 80%.

Raw Material Economics

  • Raw materials are the largest portion of battery costs.
  • Access to raw materials is crucial for success in the North American EV market.

Market Predictions

  • Global EV battery demand to rise from 718 GWh (2023) to 2.5 TWh (2028).
  • Growth indicators:
    • CATL delivered 80 GWh in Q4 2023.
    • LG Energy Solution delivered 40 GWh.

EV Market Outlook

  • EV sales predicted to reach 17.8 million units in 2024 (up from 14.2 million in 2023).
  • 70% of 2023 sales were BEVs.
  • China accounted for 59% of global EV sales in 2023.

Future Projections

  • By 2030:
    • 45% of cars sold in China will be BEV or PHEV.
    • Global EV sales could reach 48.8 million units.

U.S. and Global Targets

  • U.S. aims for $75/kWh pack cost by 2030.
  • Battery sales targets:
    • USA: 1 TWh
    • China: 3.4 TWh
    • Europe: 1.4 TWh
    • South Korea/Japan: 69 GWh

Technology and Innovation

  • Panasonic plans global production capacity increase to 200 GWh by 2030.
  • Introduction of 4680 li-ion batteries with greater energy capacity.
  • Tesla expected to use new battery types.

Conclusion

  • The battery supply landscape is highly dominated by China, with significant investments and innovations required globally to meet future demands and geopolitical challenges.