[Music] the US aircraft carrier George Washington steaming in the Western Pacific one visible symbol of what's been dubbed the pivot the Obama administration's move to bolster the American Military diplomatic and economic presence in Asia after a decade in which we fought two Wars that cost us dearly in Blood and treasure the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the asia-pacific region as president I have therefore made a deliberate and strategic decision as a Pacific Nation the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future the focus on Asia began at the start of the Obama Administration there is a very Broad and deep acknowledgement that the history of the 21st century is going to be written in the Asian Pacific region you know the most dynamic economies largest growing middle classes tremendous potential for prosperity and an absolutely unique American role the shift was partly a reaction to What was widely seen as the bush administration's neglect of Asia preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan Jeffrey Bader handled Asian Affairs for Obama at the National Security Council understandbly the war on terror had preoccupied the Bush Administration the war on Iraq um had diverted us resources and attention for the better part of a decade so we began from from day one with this uh placing greater emphasis on Asia and it had multiple Dimensions to it when President Obama went on his first trip to Asia in November of 2009 he talked about uh the us as a Pacific Pacific country and and the Obama Administration talked about President Obama as our first Pacific president but the new US strategy gained momentum and a significant shift in Focus during 2010 and 2011 against the backdrop of the rise of China that the rise of China uh on the world stage is going to be probably the most important event we face in the first half of this Century in the wake of the financial meltdown in 2008 um and the problems we were having there was a uh an increasing view in China that the US was in Decline um and the Chinese many Chinese began believing their own press clippings about China's rise and and a small segment of China's sort of elite began arguing that you know our time had our time meaning China's time had come China time for China to assert itself more uh actively and more aggressively it was a view widely expressed at the time in inside China for China we are getting more power yes we can more exert our rights Rising Powers have a common pattern of of activity uh and of psychological attitudes uh they're more self-confident they're more assertive they want other countries to pay more respect for their interests as defined by themselves uh and they have a tendency to want to throw their weight around the Chinese are showing those characteristics they were on display China forcefully asserted its claims to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea which is also claimed by several Southeast Asian nations in steadily expanding military expenditures and capabilities in heightened tensions with Japan over what Beijing calls the diu and Tokyo calls the Saku Islands tensions which in the late summer of 2012 erupted into a full-blown crisis after the Japanese government purchased the islands prompting an angry Chinese response including violent anti-japanese demonstrations across China the latest manifestation of an increasingly strident form of Chinese nationalism I think we are seeing for instance on issues related to sovereignty from their perspective a very tough and in some respects unyielding set of positions that have been animated by nationalist sentiment these developments spark concern not only in Washington but in the rest of Asia as as well our friends and allies not only allies friends throughout the region came to us and said you need to step up your game because the Chinese are becoming very worrisome and if you and keep in mind this is at a time when we're still in a fragile state in the wake of the financial crisis if we simply sat back and said no I'm sorry uh that isn't what we're all about the signal in Asia would be that we're on the way out and they had better adjust to the Chinese uh priorities the upshot was the pivot the main Dynamic of this Administration uh in dealing with Asia is the discovery that China is more assertive than they thought when they um came into office and this is one of the responses the new policy has three key elements greater diplomatic engagement with senior us officials crisscrossing the region to boost relations with friends and allies and the US seeking an expanded role in Regional institutions one of the things that we've sought to do is to engage very actively in multilateral institutions like the East Asia Summit and the Assan Regional Forum where all countries are together it also involves expanded economic ties including a proposed free trade zone called The transpacific partnership the good part about I think about it is that it's kind of a 21st century trade agreement we finally realize that we got to look at Aon and and the region much more seriously than we've done before and this is a way to do it what's gotten the most attention however and Spark the most controversy has been the American effort to boost its military presence in Asia the plan is for the Navy to reconfigure its forces from the current 50/50 split between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to having 60% of its assets here in the Pacific it will involve deploying six aircraft carriers destroyers literal combat ships submarines and an increase in military exercises and Port visits in the spring of 2012 for example the US Navy staged a large joint training exercise with the Philippines which has been locked in a tense dispute with China over rival claims to parts of the South China Sea and Senior us and Philippine officials talked of strengthened Defense ties amid blunt language clearly aimed at China we oppose the threat or use of force by any party to advance its claims meanwhile defense secretary Leon Panetta visited Vietnam forging new security ties with an old enemy that now has its own tensions with China over the South China [Music] Sea to highlight the increasingly close links between Washington and in Hanoi Panetta even made a highly publicized stop at Camron Bay which had been one of the biggest American bases during the Vietnam war we're forging with Japan Australia and South Korea new missile defense approaches we are focused on building the Philippines Maritime security presence and capabilities and strengthening their Maritime domain awareness we're integrating roles missions and capabilities with Japan and taking numerous steps to solidify and strengthen our enduring presence on the Korean Peninsula we're deepening our security cooperation technology sharing and defense trade with India underpinning the new focus on Asia is a new strategic concept which the Pentagon calls airc battle an effort to integrate US Naval and Air Force to counter the ability of China or any other adversary to curtail us operational capabilities in the Pacific we think uh there's a good strategic operational tactical and institutional value for airc battle the Anais area denial is not the only challenge to Naval and Air Forces but it's probably the defining challenge today and and as we view it in the near future there is a military challenge uh that needs to be faced I mean China has been increasing its military expenditures at between 12 and 15% per year for close to two decades uh and it has acquired military capabilities in areas of you medium- range ballistic missiles cruise missiles submarines the ability to have an effective uh military response to activities uh within let's say a th000 miles of its Shore which it did not have before it's interdiction uh for example it's the people's Liberation Army uh trying to figure out ways in which to interdict United States military forces operating in the W Western Pacific in a given scenario so this talk about airc battle um has to do with what kind of doctrinal alterations are required by this increase in Chinese capabilities uh and what kind of increasing us capabilities uh or altered us capabilities are required in response not surprisingly the robust us moves in Asia have not gone down well in Beijing jio dong served at the Chinese Embassy in Washington for many years actually many people in China believes that believe that uh this uh rebat and realignment of us uh strategy towards forces towards the Asia Pacific region is to contain China many people here in in China believe that uh you know at least part of the policy is directed at China when they look at what the US is doing and will do for the strengthening of its military alliances in the region indeed the notion that the US is trying to contain the rise of China has now become a widely accepted narrative in the Chinese press think tanks and on the streets and it's fueled an increasingly sharp anti-American tone in much of the public discussion in China there's certainly a strain that says the US is coming at us uh they're trying to contain us uh they're doing that militarily they're doing it economically with the TPP this trans-pacific partnership notion uh and that we have to be tougher to protect our interest uh and certainly feeds nationalist uh rhetoric among some in China from a Chinese point of view if if you look at the countries China has problems with Vietnam India Japan uh in some sense sometimes South Korea uh the US is cultivating relationships with the countries China has the most problems and therefore uh I can see how they see basically where we have problems that's where the US is trying to strengthen Chinese officials and Scholars reject the notion that Beijing is to blame for heighten Regional tensions saying the activities of other countries have forced China into a more assertive posture some people talked about China's so-called aggressiveness or assertiveness in the region or Beyond actually that's a kind of I believe it's a kind of wrong depiction of China's action L on policy Chinese government is actually under great pressure when the you Philippines Vietnam and know you know try to uh infringe upon Chin's claimed rights for example in the south chinae sea the alliance between the United States and Japan has been a Cornerstone of our relation ship but also for security in the as Pacific region for a very long time for their part us officials steadfastly insist that the pivot is not aimed just at China but has a much broader Focus I clearly think that China is a giant factor in the foreign policy of the United States and will continue to be but this focus on Asia is not as some have suggested some sort of containment plan that's simplistic and wrong when the administration said it's not about China it's all about China China know knows this and the military aspect in beijing's eyes is especially worrisome if you're sitting in China who would an airc battle be devoted against except you so it gives lie to successive protestations by administrations that this is not about China but it's more complex than just containment or for that matter just engagement because the US China relationship is vastly more complex the United States has a relationship with China that is one of mutual dependence we have enormous trade with China uh we did not have it with the Soviet Union our exports to China have you know have doubled in the last several years our trade is uh increasing sharply invest two-way investment is increasing um we have hundreds of thousands of Chinese students who've studied in the United States to posit the notion that what we're seeking is some sort of containment of China uh I don't know how one squares that um with um the president who's had 12 meetings with hentau that is not the diplomacy of a country that's seeking to contain another but even Washington's choice of the word pivot has been a source of tension with China the pivot is the wrong term uh and I think most people have realized that although it's already taken hold some Administration officials use the word pivot uh vocabulary which by the way I don't think is the best way to refer to US policy I uh uh the word pivot um to to some years has a bit of a military uh ring to it the words have become synonymous with containment and that's counterproductive in response us officials now usually describe what's happening not as a pivot but as a quote rebalancing I want to speak to you about a broader topic and that is our defense strategy and budget and particularly the defense aspects of our so-called rebalance to the asia-pacific region another big question about the pivot is how will the US pay for it at a time of budget constraints and cuts in defense spending indeed some analysts argue that one of the key reasons underlying the whole concept of the pivot was a desire to ensure that the US military posture in Asia is not too badly affected by those cuts the rebalancing was an effort basically to save the budget for the Asia Pacific when the rest of the defense budget was about to be cut and yet even with all these question marks and ambiguities the tension in the relationship has increasingly come to Define the public narrative on both sides China is stealing American ideas and Technology everything from computers to fighter jets seven times Obama could have taken action seven times he said no his policies cost us 2 million jobs I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message the US presidential campaign both Mitt Romney tough on China not M Romney and Barack Obama have accused the other of being softed on China the Chinese have been part of this campaign when you have an economic problem you got to blame somebody so why not blame the Chinese Romney has vowed to designate China as a currency manipulator on the day he takes office well I hope he will not do it if just if he gets elected to the White House that's equivalent to Declaration of trade War uh with China while there's an implication that we're going to change the way we'll deal with China with people posturing as to how tough they're going to be on China in reality I think they'll find that because of the interconnectedness between our two economies when we're tough on China in this area of our economic relationship China can be tough on us in another area of our economic relationship and you end up with a wash or you end up actually damaging your own interests more than you're inflicting damage on the other side you don't treat China as an enemy otherwise if you treat China as enemy you end up to have an enemy in China since 1980 China has frequently been an issue in presidential campaigns from Ronald Reagan denouncing Jimmy Carter's moves to break relations with Taiwan and normalize with Beijing to candidate Bill Clinton in 1992 an America that will not cuddle tyrants from Baghdad to Beijing to George W bush attacking the Clinton Administration for seeing China as a strategic partner and not a strategic competitor to both Obama and Senator John McCain attacking China in 2008 whoever wins though history suggests the need to manage such a complex and hugely important relationship will serve to reduce the risk that tensions could get out of control on both sides we've been through many uh us elections and administrations so generally people are not unfamiliar with is the rhetorics during the elections and we've been often told also by us friends that uh for some of the rhetorics just don't pay attention to that and forget about it because that's for the domestic audience however they um do have implications for the bilateral relation the Romney campaign declined our request to interview one of the candidates Asia policy advisers but Richard arm who served as deputy secretary of State under George W bush believes there will be more continuity in a Romney Administration than the campaign rhetoric might suggest the people who are on the Romney campaign who are Asia folks are very well known to you and to me uh the great majority are very solid I hesitate to use the word traditional uh real politique uh folks who actually have a good deal of time in Asia so I I think if Romy would to win Asia policy be relatively untouched Kenneth lieberthal who handled China policy on Bill Clinton's National Security Council isn't so sure because I don't know how serious he is in the comments he's made about China to date um you know if you look back at his history when he's held major positions as head of bang as uh you know the savior of the Olympics as governor of Massachusetts he been very pragmatic very effective uh executive um if you look at what he has said in the political campaign across an array of issues I think frankly it's hard to regard many of the statements as pragmatic or likely to be effective so the question is is the Romy of a political campaign going to be the Romy uh in office if uh a president romley uh comes in and immediately declares China to be a currency manipulator and takes other steps like that uh I think we're going to have a few years of very tough uh ties whoever wins must much will also depend on the new Chinese leadership unveiled at a Communist Party Congress in November Americans who met cin ping the new top leader are hopeful Vice President Biden has spent uh dozens of hours with vice president uh she and I think our sense is that this is a person who's committed to continuing a strong relationship between China and uh the United States moreover even the other Asian Nations who've supported the more robust us role in the region don't want to be forced to choose between the US and China China's rise has benefited all of the countries around China and they don't want a containment policy against China but at the same time they're worried that a stronger China May begin to be more assertive and more demanding of them and they don't want a hegemonic China either and so therefore they look to the United States to play a balancing role but playing a balancing role requires a tricky Balancing Act at a time when both China and the US face unprecedented internal challenges both economic and political both countries have the strain of of confronting really unusually large and difficult economic tasks that they have to take on and at the same time being economically mutually interdependent uh that complexity uh makes everyone nervous uh and uh in Parts a kind of um a fraud Dimension to the relationship the fundamental reality is we are the two largest economies in the world for decades to come we had better figure out how to make this work between the two of us