ICT Long-Term Top-Down Analysis

okay folks August 2017 we finally made it it's the last month of the mentorship's teaching and this is going to be teaching the ICT the long-term top-down analysis I'm going to be going over how I personally go through the monthly chart to arrive at levels that would be transposed and ideas to the weekly chart thank you all right so before we begin it's important that I remind you all that I've provided you a ton of information over the last 12 months and a lot of that information is going to be flexible for you to adopt as your own okay there's a lot of analysis Concepts that are very strong on their own but obviously the best way to use this information is when it's in concert with other things that support the ideas so the more things we have in Confluence supporting a specific idea or bias or analysis view or perspective the better now obviously not everything's going to be in alignment it's never the case like everything else in the world but if we have a a sampling of similar ideas overlapping or converging with the same premise then we generally have the higher odds of the outcome being our favorite so before we begin I'll just remind you that this is my personal approach okay is how I use this information how I internalize everything in the actual daily process that I go through well in this case every month when I go through the data at the last trading day of every month as soon as the market closes I go through this specific pattern of processing and looking at the data and all those things go in hand in hand with what you're going to be taught in this teaching so I'll try to do this level of analysis once a month and it's usually the close of the month that just ends okay and ideally if it happens on a weekend you know I can get to do a lot more in-depth detail but generally uh months don't always end on the weekend so they many times will end mid week and you'll have a beginning of a new month immediately the next day on on a particular weekday so this is the analysis that I do personally and how I do it and what brings me to my monthly perspective that gets transposed onto the weekly which we'll talk about in our next discussion but this is all primarily long term and I'm going to show you just how easy all the things that you've been experiencing through this mentorship how you can take just some of the things and apply it and arrive at the outcome that you're looking for in terms of analysis so what's the focus of this presentation okay we're going to determine the impact of the monthly perspective on an asset or Market and we're going to identify the directional bias for the higher time frame monthly chart we're going to classify the PD arrays accurately to assist in key levels we're going to complete an Institutional analysis on a monthly basis at the end and it all starts here seasonal tendencies now obviously there isn't a seasonal tendency for everything every single month but there are specific times of the year and this is the reason why and I want to preface it as well before we get any deeper with this I mentioned that the PDFs are going to be useless to anyone that has not gone through the content and hasn't gone through every individual lesson so the points that you get stuck on in here you're gonna have to go back into the coursework and amplify your study and go into greater detail and and just research it and plus if you still can't get it you get three more months after the conclusion of this month where you can Hammer me with questions and I will do my utmost best to get you in sync with what I view in terms of analysis but it starts with seasonal Tendencies so every day we were we were bombarded with time and what what's the calendar date today well at the time of this recording we're in August so we would be looking for August seasonal Tendencies or September seasonal tendencies that are coming up into next month's trading obviously you can't do much with what's already happened in July and June it's already passed so whenever we sit down with our analysis God forbid say something happened that we were taken away from the markets for a period of time or we have been ill okay we've just taken a Hiatus something like that we've been away from the markets say we just sat down today and you know what will we do today to get ourselves in line with the hard time frame and start working towards that lower intraday perspective uh well it starts again with the seasonal tendencies so I've given you a great deal of seasonal tendencies that I like for every asset class this teaching I don't have to break it down so much in terms of stocks we do this and uh you know Commodities we do that everything we see in this teaching is synonymous across all four asset classes okay as we get closer into the smaller time frame stuff there's a lot more you know specific things that have to be done for respective asset classes in specific markets so this one's a broad brush uh concept or presentation where it covers every asset class stocks bonds currencies and commodities okay and the next thing I like to do is I like to refer to the quarterly shifts so we like to look at how the market is predisposed to move every three to four months there's some kind of a new cycle or Market shift that takes place in the marketplace and we have to be reminding ourselves that whatever's been happening in the last couple months it doesn't always equate to a continuation of that thought process many times we'll see that it does but we have to always be in sync with the likelihood of a sentiment change or shift in the market structure where the market will go from where it has been going lower for a few months then we can actually make a long-term low or intermittent term low and trade higher for a few months so I like to look at the analysis with the anticipation of saying it's going to either continue or likely reverse in in the coming three to four months the next thing I do when I sit down I look at the interest rate differentials okay and I taught you that at the beginning of the year in 2017 how to do all that and we'll go over a little bit more detail later in this discussion but uh the process again is seasonal Tendencies that's the first thing I look for right now the month that we're in you know what's going on what's likely to happen and then I anticipate or forecast the quarterly shift that may unfold in the next three to four months and then I look at the interest rate differentials so what I'm already doing right now is I'm looking at a Time study in the basis of calendar with the quarterly shifts and I'm overlaying with the idea of is there something seasonally that may impact price so there are two references of time okay so I start there all the time remember my concepts are primarily time and price not price and time it's time then price so I'm looking for things to give me an edge from a statistical standpoint saying in the past it's done this around this time of the year well it doesn't always equate to that but I would rather trade with that idea first and foremost in my analysis Concepts than not have it at all so once we have a time element now we got to start looking for reasons to justify why price should do it okay and if we're going to be referring to currencies obviously this is the portion where interest rate differentials have to kick in if it's going to be stocks you know we would be looking at the bond market okay is the bond market moving lower if it is going lower that means interest rates are going higher and it's going to be harder for stocks to maintain a bullish market and if bond prices are rallying that means interest rates are going lower and generally that's going to be supportive of a bull market in stocks Commodities everything's going to be reverse based on the interest rates the next thing I consider when I do my analysis I'm looking for the market profile okay I want to know what we're doing right now what we have been doing in the recent months have we been trending are we consolidating are we reversing those types of things I want to know are we part of a trend right now and if there is a trend that means certain things can be anticipated or expected and if it's not trending those things also have an impact on our expectations so I consider what we're doing in terms of Market profile and then I start bringing in other markets that are correlated positively and negatively so I look at other markets to support the idea that I'm starting to see in price so I'm looking at things seasonally I'm anticipating a quarterly move over the next three to four months and I'm looking at markets that have a fundamental reason to go higher that's what interest rates are remember interest rates are the number one driver across the board on all asset classes so if you don't understand interest rates you're not going to get anything out of any of the market analysis Concepts that I've provided thus far but once we have a fundamental support behind higher or lower prices relative to the interest rates the market profile is referred to next and then after knowing what profile we're trading in at the current time I look at other markets to support okay or negate sometimes it'll negate a trade idea which is why you want to refer to other markets that are closely correlated whether it be positively correlated or negatively correlated and now look at the market structure itself this is where I want to see where we are in the scope of higher highs and lower lows and are we making intermediate term long term or short-term highs and lows and how does that nest out in the grand scheme of things and also this is where we refer to smt studies like Divergence and correlation ideas okay and then I look at the PD array Matrix and I want to define the market in terms of a premium and discount and then relative to The pdra Matrix and those reference points and focal points using that concept I will calibrate the levels and come out with key price levels as a result and there's key price levels are where the trade ideas will come to fruition they could be either in terms of an entry or it could be objectives or targets and by going through this entire process step by step in order in this way I end up getting to a monthly bias and it defines my expectation on what I think the monthly chart is going to do now some of you don't want to be long-term Traders and that's fine there's nothing wrong with that okay I don't like to be long-term Traders but I still go through this Pro this process and it sounds like a ton of things it sounds like it'd probably take you four hours to go through all that stuff and some of you are probably thinking you know is this guy really want me to do this every single time I take a trade no just once a month once a month you have to Define what it is you're looking for okay and then as the new month comes you'll do the same thing again okay so you're going to be doing monthly analysis basically one time a month you only have a candle forming once a month on a monthly time frame so you have to look at it at the beginning of the month and preferably as soon as the previous month closes you're going to be doing that analysis especially because you know unless it falls on a weekend like for instance it's the previous month closes on a Friday well that gives you a weekend to do the analysis but you're not always going to get that now are you you're going to get a month that closes during the week and you'll have to do your analysis to get in sync with the next month's trading immediately the day that the market closes so by having all this process you end up or I end up with a bias that's defined from a monthly standpoint and what I do is this is I take this information and I transpose it to a weekly chart so everything that I glean from a monthly chart whether it be stocks bonds currencies or commodities all those ideas gets translated and put onto a weekly chart so when we look at weekly charts in our next teaching where we go from weekly down to a daily that will give us more of an intermediate term perspective so this is all that it requires for me to come to a long-term bias now there's other things that we can do to help qualify and confirm some things and that's based on uh inflationary or deflationary conditions like a taught in January I'm going to counsel you to go back through January's content it's a lot of stuff in that that particular month but you can fill in a lot of the gaps that would not necessarily be seen in here but I like to look at things like our commodity prices dropping if we are we're in a deflationary condition if Commodities are going higher that's in an inflationary condition and those specific conditions have you know an outcome that's most likely going to occur and I give you those in January but really the easiest way for me to look at inflationary deflation I guess I just followed commodity prices you know if they're going higher if generally all as a whole they're going up not all of them will go up as we talk in the mentorship there's going to be some deviations in that like anything else would be expected because everything is not black and white but if the majority of Commodities are trading lower or making lower prices then we are in a deflationary condition that means prices are they're just decreasing but if commodity prices are going higher then we're in inflationary condition and that's going to have an effect on markets as a whole so but basically what we get to and arrive at is a monthly bias that gives me what my expectations are for not only the next month that we're about to start or just the month after that or maybe even the month after that so I'm trying to forecast three months of price action it can go four months just like when we look at quarterly shifts we can go look back at the last three to four months we are not rigid in that regards we want to have a little bit of flexibility so when I look at today's data when I'm looking at uh like quarterly shifts I want to look back the last three months but then potentially even four months to see if there is something I might be missing but when we're forecasting and doing an analysis we are in my opinion I'm trying to forecast the next three months uh movement from a long-term perspective I may not be accurate I may not be right okay but if I get just half of the monthly candle that's about to be painted on the chart if I can get that right that's many times enough for me to be profitable for the month and that's my point you don't have to be right to be profitable but you're going to be finding yourself more apt to be right if you do the things that we're doing here in a structured approach in a step-by-step process and going through each individual component one step at a time and arriving at that information and then building layer upon layer until you get a foundation that builds on the monthly bias so once we have all these information that we take it over to a weekly chart and we can start using that on a weekly time frame as well so seasonal Tendencies this is exactly where I begin so I start with a calendar month we're in and we're about to begin and I refer to the seasonal tendencies that are taught in this program there's so many of them it would be ridiculous for me to go through them again and it's like rehash and I'm trying not to bog you down with needless study I'm pulling all the information into a user-friendly approach that's what this whole month's about so you can go through and find out what seasonal Tendencies are good relative to the specific months and then you can just put that on your calendar every year you get every time you buy a new calendar or if you have a smartphone just plug it in you know this month I'm gonna be looking for Hogs to go up or I'm going to be looking for a euro dollar to be going down you know all those seasonal Tendencies you want to know them before the month starts okay and that way you can get yourself in sync with a potential quarterly move and that quarterly shift if it's on the right side of a seasonal tendency wow you got it again not every Market or asset class is going to have a season at the moment okay but focus on the ones that do have a historical repeating nature on how they come to fruition more times than not and Steve Moore has the absolute best in terms of Commodities and currencies and obviously you know what the seasonal tendency is for bonds I already gave you that and I've already given you acetyl seasonal tendency for equities if you're going to be a stock Trader it's only two of them a year and the one that I like most is the fall it makes a seasonal low so I want to focus on the markets that historically at that same time of the year will likely move in similar fashion okay so again it's not a Panacea it's not a be all end-all but seasonal Tendencies help me plan the best potential big movers without even needing to know what price is at I know there are certain times of the year I want to be doing certain trades now I don't force myself into that trade but I look for things like we just outlined in a step-by-step process from a monthly standpoint to justify why that seasonal tendency might have an impact on price this year and the seasonals are specific and you can delivered over the last 12 months and you got to go back and look at them respectively to their asset classes I'm not going to again I'm not going to redo them or re-list them here it's too many of them all right and next I try to determine the next quarterly shift or Market structure and I refer to the long-term 9 to 18 month Trend this is a monthly chart and if the direction is bullish that means if we've been going higher it would have last nine to 18 months I'm going to still try to justify why the next curly shift might be a buying opportunity because I don't want to Buck that Trend uh if the direction is bearish I first start to justify why the next curly shift might be a selling opportunity I'm trying to avoid picking the tops or the bottoms of the 9 18 month Trend and it has nothing to do with new moving averages here I'm just looking at the actual candles going back 18 candles on the monthly chart I want to see what we've done okay that's going to be like my primary range I want to work from that you'll have to you know calibrate that might go a little bit uh further to the left to find out where the seasonal and let's not seasonal at the uh short-term higher long-term uh high or or whatever Market structure high would be in the last nine 18 months for instance say there say you find the market has uh you know 27 down uh you know days and and there's 27 down days it may be sprinkled with you know four or five uh Down Candles I said days I should be saying monthly candles um you want to be looking at specific portions of price action and I start as a you know as a Bellwether I like to look at the 9 to 18 months uh range on a monthly chart and get a feel for what it's done in that in that span of time long-term trends tend to remain in place for some time and if the 9 to 18 month trend is not clear or it's in consolidation my personal approach is I will elect to anticipate the direction of the previous three to four months direction to reverse so whatever it has done the last three to four months if we are in a 9 to 18 month consolidation or I just don't know what the trend is if it just doesn't look clear to me I'm going to anticipate some measure of retracement or reversal for the coming month or two right next I refer to Global interest rates and I use websites like investing.com you can use that link that's here and what I'm doing is I'm locating and comparing the Central Bank interest rates for every uh major con country and I'll look for the differential trades that way so what I'm doing is I'm trying to find High interest rates to pair with a low interest rate country and to basically form a Forex pair so that way I can adopt the fundamental bias so if we are looking at currencies across the global front um this website here gives you the current interest rate and it also gives you the last time it changed and what the the change was how much of a change and when the next change is anticipated or when the next meeting would stay that way and ideally both seasonal Tendencies and quarterly shift expectations are going to be in alignment with interest rate differential trade ideas it may not be to it may not be like that but ideally all three should agree and this is what it would look like if you go to that website and this is what I mean by it it gives you the current rate and for instance we'll look at the European Central Bank right now at the time of this presentation has zero interest rate and the next meeting is planned for September 7 2017. the last time they met and changed was in March of 2016 and they dropped at five basis points so we went to zero interest rates in March of 2016 for the European Central Bank uh Bank of England right now has a quarter percent and they're planning to meet also in September 14 2017. the last time they changed uh was a cut of 25 basis points and it was in August 4th 2016. and basically all I do is look at that current rate column and I look at which one has a high rate and I group it with a low rate and for instance we have Bank of Canada it's uh three quarters of percent and if we look at the Australian dollar we have one and a half percent and I already outlined the scenarios there and we used it in the mentorship to help frame some ideas but I'm actually going to use this chart later on in an example but we'll look at that later on but right now this is what I mean when I go through and look for the global Central Bank interest rates this is where I get the information from it's radoninvesting.com backslash essential hyphen Banks okay after that what I do is I Define the current market structure okay and the current market structure I classify the recent highs in the recent lows and what I want to do is I want to compare them I want to compare them with uh positively and negatively correlated markets basically I'm looking for smt diversions and then I compare the relationship to the highs to recent highs to determine if the long intermediate term or short-term Highs are in control of price presently in other words are we making higher highs okay and then we recently made a lower high and then maybe an even lower high after that that means we've probably made an entering term or long-term High okay and this is all taught in my basic Market structure stuff the uh if I see that relationship in the highs okay and if it is at least implying that an intermittent term or a potential long-term high is formed then I'm going to be looking for reasons to go short now ideally that's going to be in pairs that are with weak currencies paired against a strong currency during a time when I anticipate lower prices on a quarterly shift at the same time of season tendency is most likely calling for that currency to go lower or that that market to go lower and the profile is trending that will be an ideal scenario and the reverse will be said for when I'm looking at the relationship of the lows I compare the market lows to recent lows to determine if a long intermediate term or short term low is in control of price presently if we see a market that makes a low a higher low then a higher low than that then we can potentially see or anticipate the fact that we've made it long-term or any term low and there may be further upside to go and then we'd be looking for in instances where there's a seasonal bullishness to come in the profile is trending higher okay and the quarterly shift we would expect it to be another few months trading higher as a result so that's how we would use the information and ideally um for when we're looking at the market that has a potential long term or ambient term high in place we would expect lower prices by comparing those highs we would see hopefully a smt diversions from a correlated asset or against the dollar field as foreign currency we would want to see um failed lower low with a higher high in the currency we look in the short or a failed lower low in the dollar was we just gave an example of would be another opportunity would be if we made a lower low in the dollar and a failed higher high in the foreign currency uh that would be in smt Divergence and that would also help us with Market structure ideas so basically it's a just looking for smt diversions and looking for Market structures to support another price like higher or another price leg lower now trade selected in the direction of the current market structure going to be favored in my analysis so if I can see clear reasons why Market structure should be going higher and season Tendencies are you know suggesting that's in line as well then obviously you know that's what I'm looking to do and I'm only going to try to focus on those types of Trades I I won't try to uh fade those types of moves I get a lot of questions you know when do I want to do reversal trades when do I want to do uh counter Trends um I don't want to counter Trend in these conditions where I have Market structure and smt behind me and seasonal Tendencies behind me and against uh the interest rates I don't I don't want to trade against that if that all these things are together I will never want to fade that I always only only want to be a buyer in that bullish scenario or seller in that bear scenario and I would never deviate from that regardless not even on a scalp and then I look for confirmation in other markets and this is by way of enter market analysis so if I have a bullish Market structure and everything before it is also supporting higher prices and I determined that in my market of Interest I look for inter-market analysis to support the this idea in positively correlated markets and opposed to it in negatively correlated markets an example would be bullish dollar if only expecting higher prices than the dollar I'd be looking for weak prices or potential sell scenarios in the gold market technically a bearish Market structure okay when I'm expecting lower prices and seasonals are behind it and I have a pair that would be grouped with a weak against a strong and I'm seeing this in my market of interest uh what I'm going to be doing is I'm looking at inter-market analysis to support the idea and possibly correlated markets and or opposed to a negatively correlated markets an example would be if I'm bearish you're a dollar I'm going to be looking for strong dollar technically uh something else that would be supportive of that would be um if I'm looking for weaker euro dollar and I'm looking for a stronger dollar as a supporting Factor we can use gold again as a supporting factor to further confirm it by expecting lower prices in the gold market now that changes when we go into conditions like what we have now we have potential War scenarios that may be a catalyst for the flight to Quality okay or Safe Haven where the goal won't be that supportive behind your trade because it's being driven by something outside of normal which would be it's being treated as a safe haven and there's a lot of things going on right now as it relates to North Korea and people are you know seeing the slide in the dollar so it's safe haven you can see the the gold market uh rallying as a supportive thought process there what profile is the market in okay and what I do is I sit down the first thing I want to know is are we consolidating okay I don't ask if it's trending first or like I'm looking are we consolidating because that tells the tale you know consolidation is the beginning of the next move so if the answer to that question when I'm sitting in front of the charts on the monthly is yes then expansions are likely to show evidence prior to the breakout in other words I'm looking for things to justify what side of the Market's going to go first is it going to be the highs or it's going to be the lowest it's going to break out to the high it's going to break down to the low I want to be looking for evidences and signs to support those theories and if it's no the question is whether or not it's consolidating if it's no then the trend might be reaching an extreme if it's not consolidating that means it's trending so I want to look and see is there reasons to justify why the the trend that has been in place is it likely to hit stiff resistance okay because if it is retracement's likely okay and the next question I have is is the market under a trending environment and if the answer is yes then I look for continuation in those trades because Trends tend to stay in place and but obviously the notion is uh you trend is your friend but not in the end so I look for com I look for continuation trades to avoid the top and bottom picks but if the answer to no is is the market trending that takes it back to its consolidating then so I look for signs and support a directional breakout and I'm going to be using intermarket analysis to do that and is the market under a retracement so if the answer to that is yes then I look for signs of continuation trades Post retracements in other words I'm looking for reasons how far is it going to be retrace down to and you just use the pdra Matrix to get to those answers but I want to be anticipating that retracement get into a specific price level and then looking for the continuation on the upside or downside relative to the trend and if the answer is no it's not retracing then I determine if consolidation or trending and I use the above ideas as outlined on this slide so it takes a little bit of thought process and there's going to be a lot of scenarios that come up and you're going to read it wrong you're going to do things wrong and like you've seen over the last 12 months I am not right all the time I can't be right all the time I'm human and I'm going to do things wrong I have a lot of things going on during this mentorship that's very distracting I have a personal life it's very distracting and you are going to have the same things happen in your life too so you're going to have difficulties you're going to hit the you know uh potholes and pitfalls and you're gonna hit snares and you're gonna make a mistake and you're gonna do things wrong but these are the questions I ask going in to determine what the market profile is and I use the ideas that suggested here to lead me to my next course of action or wait until more information comes okay then I locate the institutional Focus points okay and that's going to be in The pdra Matrix and once I arrive at a portion of price action I wish to analyze at being within usually the scope of the last nine to 18 months it can deviate a little bit based on the market structure but I look about that far back on the monthly chart and I break down the selected price range into premium and discount and not every price range will have every possible premium and or discount array I just note the ones that are obvious in the price range now both the premium and discount arrays are noted I'll look to build potential trade ideas based on the PD arrays and referring to all the previous analysis points thus mentioned in this presentation that means I'm looking for the supporting idea of a seasonal tendency calling a Direction doesn't mean it's going to happen but I'm looking in that direction first and then I look for signs and technicals to support that and fundamentals through the interest rates so I'm blending all elements time price fundamentals because of interest rates okay but I'm looking for the PD array Matrix to support the idea of having what what specific levels in a premium range should I be focused on and what discount arrays should I be focused on so that way I can really get to a closer understanding where real buying and selling should come in which brings us to where I note the key price levels once I determine the portion of Market structure I want to use for my trade ideas I round each PD array to the nearest 10 level or zero level or five level now it's going to be a matter of preference whichever it gets closer to the actual PD array now to calibrate these the premium arrays above market price or wherever we're trading at the time I'm looking at the chart I round down to the nearest adjusted number so that way I calibrate to the nearest five or zero level and I'm rounding down so if it's above us I'm getting as close as I can by getting the nearest zero or five level that closely aligns with the PD array Matrix premium level but I don't ever want to round up to it I want that low hanging fruit and for the discount arrays below the market price or wherever the Market's trading at the time if I'm looking for Discount arrays below us and and price I'm going to round up to the nearest zero level or 10 level and or five level whichever gets me closest to the PD array Matrix discount array but doesn't have to be required to round up to it okay again I want that low hanging fruit to the nearest objective and once I do that what I end up having is is the actual key price levels from a monthly standpoint to those monthly levels now they've been calibrated they've been supported with the institutional mindset of a pdra matrix discount the premium and now I have a directional bias because of all the factors we went through in this process so after referring to the potential or possibility of a seasonal tendency I anticipate a specific quarterly shift directionally I'm pairing strong to weak interest rates okay or vice versa relative to the trade idea and I'm determining the current market profile are we consolidating are we trending and I confirm my analysis with correlated pairs or markets for entry market analysis and then I select a portion of Market structure to frame a trade Within so I'm defining or trading inside a range and using that for uh internal range or external range liquidity then I Define the PD array Matrix to get the premium arrays and discount arrays to arrive at Key price levels from the monthly standpoint and then once I have that you know I'll have a directional bias that's basically you know all frame from a monthly standpoint so that directional base analysis on a monthly time frame gets transposed over to the weekly chart so let's give an example of this and that way you can kind of see how the step-by-step process is and it's really it's not much work at all and it's you know very simple and that's really one of the Hallmarks of this month it sounds like a lot on the description side of things and it is it's a lot but because you went through all the things from a conceptual and component standpoint you went part by part modularly I gave you each individual component piece by piece so now where you're lacking your understanding you'll be able to go back and find exactly what it is that you need to work on or it'll help you get to the questions that you need the answers to so the next three months when we get past August content you'll have a better use of that time and I'll be a better teacher to you because now I'll know I'll put you in a better place so you can ask the right questions and then by asking the right questions I will have hopefully the answer you're looking for that fills in those gaps okay so let's take an example using this information in a help beat home the importance and the process that I use from a monthly standpoint okay folks we're looking at the Australian dollar and I'll kind of want to bring some things out to you all right we're looking at the last week of January there's usually some kind of a low that forms then there's another stronger law that forms in the month of March leading up into May and then there's usually a June July low that forms and then there's some measure of weakness that takes place from August down into October okay so the seasonal tendency here we're going to focus on is January there's usually a low forming in the Australian dollar then there's a low that forms in March or it's a strong rally it takes us up into May and it's a tendency to create a summer low in the June July time period that trades up into around August and then we can get some weakness okay so I'm gonna be using this as my idea or framework for the seasonal impact and we're gonna be trading the uh the Australian dollar I'm going to be looking for a way we can do this seasonal tendency okay we're going to look at that as an example okay here we have the Australian dollar this is the monthly chart okay and I kind of want to use the the June time period as our study so I'm going to actually just block this off here in the May month so where that may candle ends we're going to hypothetically say that we can't see this price action okay and I want you to remember that we called for these types of moves here and we were looking for bullishness uh we're looking for this candle in here I'll set act as support which we'll outline here in a moment but I just want you to know go back and look at the information we gave around the Australian dollar and you'll see everything that's here we talked about okay so all right so we're looking at the January March and June expectation for higher prices okay so this candle here is January 2017. okay and price did in fact rally as one would expect in terms of the seasonal tendency here's February then March now March April May had a decline so we had a little bit of an opposite effect going on in seasonal intensity but then we get back into another time period when June we anticipate bullishness again okay based on the seasonal tendency so now we have a quarterly shift too what's happened here the last several months it's been going down okay so the question I ask myself is we have a seasonal tendency okay we're referring to June as our setup here okay uh our seasonal tendency was expected or expecting higher prices in June and the quarterly shift has been uh the last couple months it's been going lower okay and at the end of May getting ready to go into June what we're trying to forecast is what takes place in June so this month right here when this ends we look back one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen fifteen sixteen Seventeen eighteen candles okay 9 to 18 candles so if we look at this back here price has been really in a consolidation Okay so I want to know what what the price has done you know in the last 9 to 18 candles on a monthly chart and if you look at what we've seen though we've we've seen price come off of a low at a higher low and now we've seen some measured retracement so the question is is we have had up to the end of May we had three months of down movement so there's three months of down Movement we need to figure out you know what does that mean does that mean that we're going to see continuation of that going down or is that more like a retracement we'll have to look at some things as we go through our process but the next point of concern is we have to look at the rate uh front in other words what's the global exchange rates for potential Banks and since we're looking at the Australian dollar we got to look at what the relationship is between the Australian currencies uh interest rate and that of the FED for the dollar so let's take a quick look over at the website that does that investing.com okay we can see all the interest rates here listed and we're looking at the Australian Bank The Reserve Bank of Australia and the interest rate is one and a half percent and the last time they changed was August 2nd 2016 they cut it 25 basis points and the next time their meeting is September 5th we have an interest rate of one and a half percent for the Australian and for the US our federal Reserve interest rate is at the time of this recording it's one and a quarter percent but they just changed it and raised it 25 basis points June 14 2017. so really this was actually one percent versus Australians one and a half percent so which had the higher interest rate Australia so from a differential standpoint I'll show you how to higher interest rate than that of the American dollar so by itself fundamentally speaking the yield attraction is better in Australian than it is of the dollar okay so we have seasonal intent seasonal Tendencies expected to go higher in June and then we expect a quarterly shift uh to take place and the rate differential is showing that the Australian dollar is higher than that of the dollar as it was shown here prior to June uh 14th the interest rate was at one percent so now we've got to look at the market profiles let's go back over to our charts okay and going back about 18 candles you can see the market profile has been in consolidation Okay so we've been in a Range and it's important we don't we don't want to focus on any of this over here so we have basically pretend if you will this price is a price action isn't there okay it's going to be to your learning benefit but in a moment just uh for now just ignore this okay so we've been in a range or consolidation but inside that consolidation we got to look for Clues remember the market profile if it's consolidating you know we want to know if it's going to give us um an upside or downside break so the way we do that is we start looking for inter-market analysis okay and now we're going to ring in the dollar Index okay we'll bring in the dollar Index on a monthly chart okay you can see the monthly chart prior to um well here's August July June right here in the month of May we've had prices down dropping lower okay so from a quarterly standpoint this has been dropping okay do we look for a reversal for the quarterly shift for the dollar or do we support the idea that it's continuously going lower well we have to take a look at the market profile in this currency as well prior to this High we were in a consolidation all of this was a range now I spent a lot of time giving you the outline about 38 minutes was describing the step-by-step process but look how fast we go through this okay I want you to keep it in time how much I'm actually doing time wise to get to this outcome consolidation and we broke out of consolidation so above equal highs this is always going to be potentially what a stop run even on a monthly basis so it could be a failed break and then come back down inside the range and we get that here this is May okay so in this case we would expect the price to continuously go lower because we had a failed break here after a consolidation so once they broke out one side of the consolidation and it comes back deeper and goes through the midpoint of that we have to look for the potential for it to go down below the low end of the range okay or at least the bodies of the candles in here in that scene right there okay because the width can always be erroneous price action you can see price did invest it go down below the bodies of the candles from a monthly standpoint but how do we use this for the Aussie well if we go back to the Aussie if you look at the relationship from the December low December low in 2015 and December low in 2016 we have a higher low if we go to the dollar Index and we use the December High to the December high in 2015. we had a higher high so we had a higher high in dollar we didn't get a lower low in Aussie so from a Market structure standpoint we have s t Divergence in here okay so relatively speaking all these dollars unwilling to make a lower low where the dollar was able to make a higher high okay so this means that this is always going to be potentially what a stopper on a false break above old high and the accumulation is being seen in Aussie now we went into consolidation now we came down to a low and we rallied away so we took out this down closed candle making this a bullish order block take the open on the lowest down closed candle right there's your bullish order block we talked about this in the mentorship price on June opened traded down to that monthly order blocks open 73.80 right there okay so it opens trades down right at that level so now what we have is we have a range okay we have a range this high and this low okay this is the most recent high this is the most recent low so in terms of definition of what those ranges are this is going to be for PDA PDA rate PD array Matrix rather good brief easy for me to say I know so here's our range okay and I'm going to take this off now because the smt Divergence has already been described so at this moment right here at the end of May before July I'm sorry before June rather starts trading we Define our PD arrays from this point here below us we have what the bull shoulder block there's no Gap in here because the Wicks and all that and then below that is the rejection block at the close at 72.16 and then below the low with the which is the liquidity pull of cell stops so there's your discount arrays did it have every one of them in here was there a liquidity void in there no was there a vacuum Gap we talked about them no it's not okay was there a breaker no there's no breaker there either okay you only left with three choices pull a shorter block rejection block old low there's no old high back here to referred to either okay so you have three potential discount arrays now is that hard no people make this a lot harder than it has to be because I give you the the PD arrays doesn't mean not every price range is going to have every single one of them okay and chances are they're not going to be there there's only going to be a few sometimes and that's the ones you find on the chart is this uh is it ambiguous no it's it's definitive it's actually tells you exactly what you're looking for the order block rejection block oh low for liquidity pool okay so you only have three choices here first one you get to is this your block it opens trades down to it now that could potentially be a trade by itself you have to justify what's going on here is there reasons to see prices go higher here well we'll have to figure that out when we get into lower time frames but right in here we would expect this to be a support level okay so we have this specific handles opening is 73.80 do we need to round that to anything no it's at rate at 80 it's at a zero level okay if it were 73 um 82. we would round it to 73.85 okay because it's above and we're trading down to it so we have our range there and also if we Define the range that we just did here there's our high to low and equilibrium's up here so we're below equilibrium in a discount Market at a discount array so all the Frameworks there for our pdra Matrix and now we have our key levels which are here and just that quick we've already arrived at what we would translate into a potentially bullish scenario because June is a seasonal tendency month when we should see Australian dollar rally we've had the last three months go lower so it quarterly shift is in order it's been in retracement so is it retracing okay was it rechasing down into an order block seasonally expecting higher prices and we're in a consolidation so what's above the consolidation during the market profile uh portion of this buy stops so we were going to be targeting and a run above the range highs in here and that's going to be here there's our high and then we got a rejection block over here a little bit further to the left so once we reach this the next area of Interest would be the highest up close right in here and we even went through that okay so just that quick that's how we arrive at whether the market is bullish monthly or bearish monthly in this case we think we've seen and mapped out rather quickly I've done more talking than was required to determine what it is and what the range is and what the actual levels are but just that quick we can arrive at a bias for the market from a monthly standpoint and the expectation is not just one month but several months and right now we've had the month of June and July deliver a very handsome rewards for being a long Trader on Aussie dollar and from a day trader standpoint you can use these ideas to build in um scalping and intraday trading only on the long side during this month of June and July because we're expecting this monthly outcome to come to confirm our expectations relative to our analysis on a monthly chart so hopefully this has been insightful to you obviously we'll be building on this theme as we go through the entire month the next teaching is going to be the intermediate term time frame and how I do the analysis and you can see just how quick that was it wasn't a lot of work now was it I didn't do a whole lot of acrobatics and do any of that stuff but at the same time there are so many things you can add to this to confirm and qualify for instance if we're looking at the Australian dollar in the monthly one of the things that supports this currency also is it moves very well with the s p so if we compare what the s p is doing okay and here if it's if the s p is going up which we know it has been going up uh that supports this uh this pair as well because Aussie usually tracks the s p really well that's going to close this teaching and I'll see you over on the intermediate term analysis

okay folks August 2017 we finally made it it&#39;s the last month of the mentorship&#39;s teaching and this is going to be teaching the ICT the long-term top-down analysis I&#39;m going to be going over how I personally go through the monthly chart to arrive at levels that would be transposed and ideas to the weekly chart thank you all right so before we begin it&#39;s important that I remind you all that I&#39;ve provided you a ton of information over the last 12 months and a lot of that information is going to be flexible for you to adopt as your own okay there&#39;s a lot of analysis Concepts that are very strong on their own but obviously the best way to use this information is when it&#39;s in concert with other things that support the ideas so the more things we have in Confluence supporting a specific idea or bias or analysis view or perspective the better now obviously not everything&#39;s going to be in alignment it&#39;s never the case like everything else in the world but if we have a a sampling of similar ideas overlapping or converging with the same premise then we generally have the higher odds of the outcome being our favorite so before we begin I&#39;ll just remind you that this is my personal approach okay is how I use this information how I internalize everything in the actual daily process that I go through well in this case every month when I go through the data at the last trading day of every month as soon as the market closes I go through this specific pattern of processing and looking at the data and all those things go in hand in hand with what you&#39;re going to be taught in this teaching so I&#39;ll try to do this level of analysis once a month and it&#39;s usually the close of the month that just ends okay and ideally if it happens on a weekend you know I can get to do a lot more in-depth detail but generally uh months don&#39;t always end on the weekend so they many times will end mid week and you&#39;ll have a beginning of a new month immediately the next day on on a particular weekday so this is the analysis that I do personally and how I do it and what brings me to my monthly perspective that gets transposed onto the weekly which we&#39;ll talk about in our next discussion but this is all primarily long term and I&#39;m going to show you just how easy all the things that you&#39;ve been experiencing through this mentorship how you can take just some of the things and apply it and arrive at the outcome that you&#39;re looking for in terms of analysis so what&#39;s the focus of this presentation okay we&#39;re going to determine the impact of the monthly perspective on an asset or Market and we&#39;re going to identify the directional bias for the higher time frame monthly chart we&#39;re going to classify the PD arrays accurately to assist in key levels we&#39;re going to complete an Institutional analysis on a monthly basis at the end and it all starts here seasonal tendencies now obviously there isn&#39;t a seasonal tendency for everything every single month but there are specific times of the year and this is the reason why and I want to preface it as well before we get any deeper with this I mentioned that the PDFs are going to be useless to anyone that has not gone through the content and hasn&#39;t gone through every individual lesson so the points that you get stuck on in here you&#39;re gonna have to go back into the coursework and amplify your study and go into greater detail and and just research it and plus if you still can&#39;t get it you get three more months after the conclusion of this month where you can Hammer me with questions and I will do my utmost best to get you in sync with what I view in terms of analysis but it starts with seasonal Tendencies so every day we were we were bombarded with time and what what&#39;s the calendar date today well at the time of this recording we&#39;re in August so we would be looking for August seasonal Tendencies or September seasonal tendencies that are coming up into next month&#39;s trading obviously you can&#39;t do much with what&#39;s already happened in July and June it&#39;s already passed so whenever we sit down with our analysis God forbid say something happened that we were taken away from the markets for a period of time or we have been ill okay we&#39;ve just taken a Hiatus something like that we&#39;ve been away from the markets say we just sat down today and you know what will we do today to get ourselves in line with the hard time frame and start working towards that lower intraday perspective uh well it starts again with the seasonal tendencies so I&#39;ve given you a great deal of seasonal tendencies that I like for every asset class this teaching I don&#39;t have to break it down so much in terms of stocks we do this and uh you know Commodities we do that everything we see in this teaching is synonymous across all four asset classes okay as we get closer into the smaller time frame stuff there&#39;s a lot more you know specific things that have to be done for respective asset classes in specific markets so this one&#39;s a broad brush uh concept or presentation where it covers every asset class stocks bonds currencies and commodities okay and the next thing I like to do is I like to refer to the quarterly shifts so we like to look at how the market is predisposed to move every three to four months there&#39;s some kind of a new cycle or Market shift that takes place in the marketplace and we have to be reminding ourselves that whatever&#39;s been happening in the last couple months it doesn&#39;t always equate to a continuation of that thought process many times we&#39;ll see that it does but we have to always be in sync with the likelihood of a sentiment change or shift in the market structure where the market will go from where it has been going lower for a few months then we can actually make a long-term low or intermittent term low and trade higher for a few months so I like to look at the analysis with the anticipation of saying it&#39;s going to either continue or likely reverse in in the coming three to four months the next thing I do when I sit down I look at the interest rate differentials okay and I taught you that at the beginning of the year in 2017 how to do all that and we&#39;ll go over a little bit more detail later in this discussion but uh the process again is seasonal Tendencies that&#39;s the first thing I look for right now the month that we&#39;re in you know what&#39;s going on what&#39;s likely to happen and then I anticipate or forecast the quarterly shift that may unfold in the next three to four months and then I look at the interest rate differentials so what I&#39;m already doing right now is I&#39;m looking at a Time study in the basis of calendar with the quarterly shifts and I&#39;m overlaying with the idea of is there something seasonally that may impact price so there are two references of time okay so I start there all the time remember my concepts are primarily time and price not price and time it&#39;s time then price so I&#39;m looking for things to give me an edge from a statistical standpoint saying in the past it&#39;s done this around this time of the year well it doesn&#39;t always equate to that but I would rather trade with that idea first and foremost in my analysis Concepts than not have it at all so once we have a time element now we got to start looking for reasons to justify why price should do it okay and if we&#39;re going to be referring to currencies obviously this is the portion where interest rate differentials have to kick in if it&#39;s going to be stocks you know we would be looking at the bond market okay is the bond market moving lower if it is going lower that means interest rates are going higher and it&#39;s going to be harder for stocks to maintain a bullish market and if bond prices are rallying that means interest rates are going lower and generally that&#39;s going to be supportive of a bull market in stocks Commodities everything&#39;s going to be reverse based on the interest rates the next thing I consider when I do my analysis I&#39;m looking for the market profile okay I want to know what we&#39;re doing right now what we have been doing in the recent months have we been trending are we consolidating are we reversing those types of things I want to know are we part of a trend right now and if there is a trend that means certain things can be anticipated or expected and if it&#39;s not trending those things also have an impact on our expectations so I consider what we&#39;re doing in terms of Market profile and then I start bringing in other markets that are correlated positively and negatively so I look at other markets to support the idea that I&#39;m starting to see in price so I&#39;m looking at things seasonally I&#39;m anticipating a quarterly move over the next three to four months and I&#39;m looking at markets that have a fundamental reason to go higher that&#39;s what interest rates are remember interest rates are the number one driver across the board on all asset classes so if you don&#39;t understand interest rates you&#39;re not going to get anything out of any of the market analysis Concepts that I&#39;ve provided thus far but once we have a fundamental support behind higher or lower prices relative to the interest rates the market profile is referred to next and then after knowing what profile we&#39;re trading in at the current time I look at other markets to support okay or negate sometimes it&#39;ll negate a trade idea which is why you want to refer to other markets that are closely correlated whether it be positively correlated or negatively correlated and now look at the market structure itself this is where I want to see where we are in the scope of higher highs and lower lows and are we making intermediate term long term or short-term highs and lows and how does that nest out in the grand scheme of things and also this is where we refer to smt studies like Divergence and correlation ideas okay and then I look at the PD array Matrix and I want to define the market in terms of a premium and discount and then relative to The pdra Matrix and those reference points and focal points using that concept I will calibrate the levels and come out with key price levels as a result and there&#39;s key price levels are where the trade ideas will come to fruition they could be either in terms of an entry or it could be objectives or targets and by going through this entire process step by step in order in this way I end up getting to a monthly bias and it defines my expectation on what I think the monthly chart is going to do now some of you don&#39;t want to be long-term Traders and that&#39;s fine there&#39;s nothing wrong with that okay I don&#39;t like to be long-term Traders but I still go through this Pro this process and it sounds like a ton of things it sounds like it&#39;d probably take you four hours to go through all that stuff and some of you are probably thinking you know is this guy really want me to do this every single time I take a trade no just once a month once a month you have to Define what it is you&#39;re looking for okay and then as the new month comes you&#39;ll do the same thing again okay so you&#39;re going to be doing monthly analysis basically one time a month you only have a candle forming once a month on a monthly time frame so you have to look at it at the beginning of the month and preferably as soon as the previous month closes you&#39;re going to be doing that analysis especially because you know unless it falls on a weekend like for instance it&#39;s the previous month closes on a Friday well that gives you a weekend to do the analysis but you&#39;re not always going to get that now are you you&#39;re going to get a month that closes during the week and you&#39;ll have to do your analysis to get in sync with the next month&#39;s trading immediately the day that the market closes so by having all this process you end up or I end up with a bias that&#39;s defined from a monthly standpoint and what I do is this is I take this information and I transpose it to a weekly chart so everything that I glean from a monthly chart whether it be stocks bonds currencies or commodities all those ideas gets translated and put onto a weekly chart so when we look at weekly charts in our next teaching where we go from weekly down to a daily that will give us more of an intermediate term perspective so this is all that it requires for me to come to a long-term bias now there&#39;s other things that we can do to help qualify and confirm some things and that&#39;s based on uh inflationary or deflationary conditions like a taught in January I&#39;m going to counsel you to go back through January&#39;s content it&#39;s a lot of stuff in that that particular month but you can fill in a lot of the gaps that would not necessarily be seen in here but I like to look at things like our commodity prices dropping if we are we&#39;re in a deflationary condition if Commodities are going higher that&#39;s in an inflationary condition and those specific conditions have you know an outcome that&#39;s most likely going to occur and I give you those in January but really the easiest way for me to look at inflationary deflation I guess I just followed commodity prices you know if they&#39;re going higher if generally all as a whole they&#39;re going up not all of them will go up as we talk in the mentorship there&#39;s going to be some deviations in that like anything else would be expected because everything is not black and white but if the majority of Commodities are trading lower or making lower prices then we are in a deflationary condition that means prices are they&#39;re just decreasing but if commodity prices are going higher then we&#39;re in inflationary condition and that&#39;s going to have an effect on markets as a whole so but basically what we get to and arrive at is a monthly bias that gives me what my expectations are for not only the next month that we&#39;re about to start or just the month after that or maybe even the month after that so I&#39;m trying to forecast three months of price action it can go four months just like when we look at quarterly shifts we can go look back at the last three to four months we are not rigid in that regards we want to have a little bit of flexibility so when I look at today&#39;s data when I&#39;m looking at uh like quarterly shifts I want to look back the last three months but then potentially even four months to see if there is something I might be missing but when we&#39;re forecasting and doing an analysis we are in my opinion I&#39;m trying to forecast the next three months uh movement from a long-term perspective I may not be accurate I may not be right okay but if I get just half of the monthly candle that&#39;s about to be painted on the chart if I can get that right that&#39;s many times enough for me to be profitable for the month and that&#39;s my point you don&#39;t have to be right to be profitable but you&#39;re going to be finding yourself more apt to be right if you do the things that we&#39;re doing here in a structured approach in a step-by-step process and going through each individual component one step at a time and arriving at that information and then building layer upon layer until you get a foundation that builds on the monthly bias so once we have all these information that we take it over to a weekly chart and we can start using that on a weekly time frame as well so seasonal Tendencies this is exactly where I begin so I start with a calendar month we&#39;re in and we&#39;re about to begin and I refer to the seasonal tendencies that are taught in this program there&#39;s so many of them it would be ridiculous for me to go through them again and it&#39;s like rehash and I&#39;m trying not to bog you down with needless study I&#39;m pulling all the information into a user-friendly approach that&#39;s what this whole month&#39;s about so you can go through and find out what seasonal Tendencies are good relative to the specific months and then you can just put that on your calendar every year you get every time you buy a new calendar or if you have a smartphone just plug it in you know this month I&#39;m gonna be looking for Hogs to go up or I&#39;m going to be looking for a euro dollar to be going down you know all those seasonal Tendencies you want to know them before the month starts okay and that way you can get yourself in sync with a potential quarterly move and that quarterly shift if it&#39;s on the right side of a seasonal tendency wow you got it again not every Market or asset class is going to have a season at the moment okay but focus on the ones that do have a historical repeating nature on how they come to fruition more times than not and Steve Moore has the absolute best in terms of Commodities and currencies and obviously you know what the seasonal tendency is for bonds I already gave you that and I&#39;ve already given you acetyl seasonal tendency for equities if you&#39;re going to be a stock Trader it&#39;s only two of them a year and the one that I like most is the fall it makes a seasonal low so I want to focus on the markets that historically at that same time of the year will likely move in similar fashion okay so again it&#39;s not a Panacea it&#39;s not a be all end-all but seasonal Tendencies help me plan the best potential big movers without even needing to know what price is at I know there are certain times of the year I want to be doing certain trades now I don&#39;t force myself into that trade but I look for things like we just outlined in a step-by-step process from a monthly standpoint to justify why that seasonal tendency might have an impact on price this year and the seasonals are specific and you can delivered over the last 12 months and you got to go back and look at them respectively to their asset classes I&#39;m not going to again I&#39;m not going to redo them or re-list them here it&#39;s too many of them all right and next I try to determine the next quarterly shift or Market structure and I refer to the long-term 9 to 18 month Trend this is a monthly chart and if the direction is bullish that means if we&#39;ve been going higher it would have last nine to 18 months I&#39;m going to still try to justify why the next curly shift might be a buying opportunity because I don&#39;t want to Buck that Trend uh if the direction is bearish I first start to justify why the next curly shift might be a selling opportunity I&#39;m trying to avoid picking the tops or the bottoms of the 9 18 month Trend and it has nothing to do with new moving averages here I&#39;m just looking at the actual candles going back 18 candles on the monthly chart I want to see what we&#39;ve done okay that&#39;s going to be like my primary range I want to work from that you&#39;ll have to you know calibrate that might go a little bit uh further to the left to find out where the seasonal and let&#39;s not seasonal at the uh short-term higher long-term uh high or or whatever Market structure high would be in the last nine 18 months for instance say there say you find the market has uh you know 27 down uh you know days and and there&#39;s 27 down days it may be sprinkled with you know four or five uh Down Candles I said days I should be saying monthly candles um you want to be looking at specific portions of price action and I start as a you know as a Bellwether I like to look at the 9 to 18 months uh range on a monthly chart and get a feel for what it&#39;s done in that in that span of time long-term trends tend to remain in place for some time and if the 9 to 18 month trend is not clear or it&#39;s in consolidation my personal approach is I will elect to anticipate the direction of the previous three to four months direction to reverse so whatever it has done the last three to four months if we are in a 9 to 18 month consolidation or I just don&#39;t know what the trend is if it just doesn&#39;t look clear to me I&#39;m going to anticipate some measure of retracement or reversal for the coming month or two right next I refer to Global interest rates and I use websites like investing.com you can use that link that&#39;s here and what I&#39;m doing is I&#39;m locating and comparing the Central Bank interest rates for every uh major con country and I&#39;ll look for the differential trades that way so what I&#39;m doing is I&#39;m trying to find High interest rates to pair with a low interest rate country and to basically form a Forex pair so that way I can adopt the fundamental bias so if we are looking at currencies across the global front um this website here gives you the current interest rate and it also gives you the last time it changed and what the the change was how much of a change and when the next change is anticipated or when the next meeting would stay that way and ideally both seasonal Tendencies and quarterly shift expectations are going to be in alignment with interest rate differential trade ideas it may not be to it may not be like that but ideally all three should agree and this is what it would look like if you go to that website and this is what I mean by it it gives you the current rate and for instance we&#39;ll look at the European Central Bank right now at the time of this presentation has zero interest rate and the next meeting is planned for September 7 2017. the last time they met and changed was in March of 2016 and they dropped at five basis points so we went to zero interest rates in March of 2016 for the European Central Bank uh Bank of England right now has a quarter percent and they&#39;re planning to meet also in September 14 2017. the last time they changed uh was a cut of 25 basis points and it was in August 4th 2016. and basically all I do is look at that current rate column and I look at which one has a high rate and I group it with a low rate and for instance we have Bank of Canada it&#39;s uh three quarters of percent and if we look at the Australian dollar we have one and a half percent and I already outlined the scenarios there and we used it in the mentorship to help frame some ideas but I&#39;m actually going to use this chart later on in an example but we&#39;ll look at that later on but right now this is what I mean when I go through and look for the global Central Bank interest rates this is where I get the information from it&#39;s radoninvesting.com backslash essential hyphen Banks okay after that what I do is I Define the current market structure okay and the current market structure I classify the recent highs in the recent lows and what I want to do is I want to compare them I want to compare them with uh positively and negatively correlated markets basically I&#39;m looking for smt diversions and then I compare the relationship to the highs to recent highs to determine if the long intermediate term or short-term Highs are in control of price presently in other words are we making higher highs okay and then we recently made a lower high and then maybe an even lower high after that that means we&#39;ve probably made an entering term or long-term High okay and this is all taught in my basic Market structure stuff the uh if I see that relationship in the highs okay and if it is at least implying that an intermittent term or a potential long-term high is formed then I&#39;m going to be looking for reasons to go short now ideally that&#39;s going to be in pairs that are with weak currencies paired against a strong currency during a time when I anticipate lower prices on a quarterly shift at the same time of season tendency is most likely calling for that currency to go lower or that that market to go lower and the profile is trending that will be an ideal scenario and the reverse will be said for when I&#39;m looking at the relationship of the lows I compare the market lows to recent lows to determine if a long intermediate term or short term low is in control of price presently if we see a market that makes a low a higher low then a higher low than that then we can potentially see or anticipate the fact that we&#39;ve made it long-term or any term low and there may be further upside to go and then we&#39;d be looking for in instances where there&#39;s a seasonal bullishness to come in the profile is trending higher okay and the quarterly shift we would expect it to be another few months trading higher as a result so that&#39;s how we would use the information and ideally um for when we&#39;re looking at the market that has a potential long term or ambient term high in place we would expect lower prices by comparing those highs we would see hopefully a smt diversions from a correlated asset or against the dollar field as foreign currency we would want to see um failed lower low with a higher high in the currency we look in the short or a failed lower low in the dollar was we just gave an example of would be another opportunity would be if we made a lower low in the dollar and a failed higher high in the foreign currency uh that would be in smt Divergence and that would also help us with Market structure ideas so basically it&#39;s a just looking for smt diversions and looking for Market structures to support another price like higher or another price leg lower now trade selected in the direction of the current market structure going to be favored in my analysis so if I can see clear reasons why Market structure should be going higher and season Tendencies are you know suggesting that&#39;s in line as well then obviously you know that&#39;s what I&#39;m looking to do and I&#39;m only going to try to focus on those types of Trades I I won&#39;t try to uh fade those types of moves I get a lot of questions you know when do I want to do reversal trades when do I want to do uh counter Trends um I don&#39;t want to counter Trend in these conditions where I have Market structure and smt behind me and seasonal Tendencies behind me and against uh the interest rates I don&#39;t I don&#39;t want to trade against that if that all these things are together I will never want to fade that I always only only want to be a buyer in that bullish scenario or seller in that bear scenario and I would never deviate from that regardless not even on a scalp and then I look for confirmation in other markets and this is by way of enter market analysis so if I have a bullish Market structure and everything before it is also supporting higher prices and I determined that in my market of Interest I look for inter-market analysis to support the this idea in positively correlated markets and opposed to it in negatively correlated markets an example would be bullish dollar if only expecting higher prices than the dollar I&#39;d be looking for weak prices or potential sell scenarios in the gold market technically a bearish Market structure okay when I&#39;m expecting lower prices and seasonals are behind it and I have a pair that would be grouped with a weak against a strong and I&#39;m seeing this in my market of interest uh what I&#39;m going to be doing is I&#39;m looking at inter-market analysis to support the idea and possibly correlated markets and or opposed to a negatively correlated markets an example would be if I&#39;m bearish you&#39;re a dollar I&#39;m going to be looking for strong dollar technically uh something else that would be supportive of that would be um if I&#39;m looking for weaker euro dollar and I&#39;m looking for a stronger dollar as a supporting Factor we can use gold again as a supporting factor to further confirm it by expecting lower prices in the gold market now that changes when we go into conditions like what we have now we have potential War scenarios that may be a catalyst for the flight to Quality okay or Safe Haven where the goal won&#39;t be that supportive behind your trade because it&#39;s being driven by something outside of normal which would be it&#39;s being treated as a safe haven and there&#39;s a lot of things going on right now as it relates to North Korea and people are you know seeing the slide in the dollar so it&#39;s safe haven you can see the the gold market uh rallying as a supportive thought process there what profile is the market in okay and what I do is I sit down the first thing I want to know is are we consolidating okay I don&#39;t ask if it&#39;s trending first or like I&#39;m looking are we consolidating because that tells the tale you know consolidation is the beginning of the next move so if the answer to that question when I&#39;m sitting in front of the charts on the monthly is yes then expansions are likely to show evidence prior to the breakout in other words I&#39;m looking for things to justify what side of the Market&#39;s going to go first is it going to be the highs or it&#39;s going to be the lowest it&#39;s going to break out to the high it&#39;s going to break down to the low I want to be looking for evidences and signs to support those theories and if it&#39;s no the question is whether or not it&#39;s consolidating if it&#39;s no then the trend might be reaching an extreme if it&#39;s not consolidating that means it&#39;s trending so I want to look and see is there reasons to justify why the the trend that has been in place is it likely to hit stiff resistance okay because if it is retracement&#39;s likely okay and the next question I have is is the market under a trending environment and if the answer is yes then I look for continuation in those trades because Trends tend to stay in place and but obviously the notion is uh you trend is your friend but not in the end so I look for com I look for continuation trades to avoid the top and bottom picks but if the answer to no is is the market trending that takes it back to its consolidating then so I look for signs and support a directional breakout and I&#39;m going to be using intermarket analysis to do that and is the market under a retracement so if the answer to that is yes then I look for signs of continuation trades Post retracements in other words I&#39;m looking for reasons how far is it going to be retrace down to and you just use the pdra Matrix to get to those answers but I want to be anticipating that retracement get into a specific price level and then looking for the continuation on the upside or downside relative to the trend and if the answer is no it&#39;s not retracing then I determine if consolidation or trending and I use the above ideas as outlined on this slide so it takes a little bit of thought process and there&#39;s going to be a lot of scenarios that come up and you&#39;re going to read it wrong you&#39;re going to do things wrong and like you&#39;ve seen over the last 12 months I am not right all the time I can&#39;t be right all the time I&#39;m human and I&#39;m going to do things wrong I have a lot of things going on during this mentorship that&#39;s very distracting I have a personal life it&#39;s very distracting and you are going to have the same things happen in your life too so you&#39;re going to have difficulties you&#39;re going to hit the you know uh potholes and pitfalls and you&#39;re gonna hit snares and you&#39;re gonna make a mistake and you&#39;re gonna do things wrong but these are the questions I ask going in to determine what the market profile is and I use the ideas that suggested here to lead me to my next course of action or wait until more information comes okay then I locate the institutional Focus points okay and that&#39;s going to be in The pdra Matrix and once I arrive at a portion of price action I wish to analyze at being within usually the scope of the last nine to 18 months it can deviate a little bit based on the market structure but I look about that far back on the monthly chart and I break down the selected price range into premium and discount and not every price range will have every possible premium and or discount array I just note the ones that are obvious in the price range now both the premium and discount arrays are noted I&#39;ll look to build potential trade ideas based on the PD arrays and referring to all the previous analysis points thus mentioned in this presentation that means I&#39;m looking for the supporting idea of a seasonal tendency calling a Direction doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s going to happen but I&#39;m looking in that direction first and then I look for signs and technicals to support that and fundamentals through the interest rates so I&#39;m blending all elements time price fundamentals because of interest rates okay but I&#39;m looking for the PD array Matrix to support the idea of having what what specific levels in a premium range should I be focused on and what discount arrays should I be focused on so that way I can really get to a closer understanding where real buying and selling should come in which brings us to where I note the key price levels once I determine the portion of Market structure I want to use for my trade ideas I round each PD array to the nearest 10 level or zero level or five level now it&#39;s going to be a matter of preference whichever it gets closer to the actual PD array now to calibrate these the premium arrays above market price or wherever we&#39;re trading at the time I&#39;m looking at the chart I round down to the nearest adjusted number so that way I calibrate to the nearest five or zero level and I&#39;m rounding down so if it&#39;s above us I&#39;m getting as close as I can by getting the nearest zero or five level that closely aligns with the PD array Matrix premium level but I don&#39;t ever want to round up to it I want that low hanging fruit and for the discount arrays below the market price or wherever the Market&#39;s trading at the time if I&#39;m looking for Discount arrays below us and and price I&#39;m going to round up to the nearest zero level or 10 level and or five level whichever gets me closest to the PD array Matrix discount array but doesn&#39;t have to be required to round up to it okay again I want that low hanging fruit to the nearest objective and once I do that what I end up having is is the actual key price levels from a monthly standpoint to those monthly levels now they&#39;ve been calibrated they&#39;ve been supported with the institutional mindset of a pdra matrix discount the premium and now I have a directional bias because of all the factors we went through in this process so after referring to the potential or possibility of a seasonal tendency I anticipate a specific quarterly shift directionally I&#39;m pairing strong to weak interest rates okay or vice versa relative to the trade idea and I&#39;m determining the current market profile are we consolidating are we trending and I confirm my analysis with correlated pairs or markets for entry market analysis and then I select a portion of Market structure to frame a trade Within so I&#39;m defining or trading inside a range and using that for uh internal range or external range liquidity then I Define the PD array Matrix to get the premium arrays and discount arrays to arrive at Key price levels from the monthly standpoint and then once I have that you know I&#39;ll have a directional bias that&#39;s basically you know all frame from a monthly standpoint so that directional base analysis on a monthly time frame gets transposed over to the weekly chart so let&#39;s give an example of this and that way you can kind of see how the step-by-step process is and it&#39;s really it&#39;s not much work at all and it&#39;s you know very simple and that&#39;s really one of the Hallmarks of this month it sounds like a lot on the description side of things and it is it&#39;s a lot but because you went through all the things from a conceptual and component standpoint you went part by part modularly I gave you each individual component piece by piece so now where you&#39;re lacking your understanding you&#39;ll be able to go back and find exactly what it is that you need to work on or it&#39;ll help you get to the questions that you need the answers to so the next three months when we get past August content you&#39;ll have a better use of that time and I&#39;ll be a better teacher to you because now I&#39;ll know I&#39;ll put you in a better place so you can ask the right questions and then by asking the right questions I will have hopefully the answer you&#39;re looking for that fills in those gaps okay so let&#39;s take an example using this information in a help beat home the importance and the process that I use from a monthly standpoint okay folks we&#39;re looking at the Australian dollar and I&#39;ll kind of want to bring some things out to you all right we&#39;re looking at the last week of January there&#39;s usually some kind of a low that forms then there&#39;s another stronger law that forms in the month of March leading up into May and then there&#39;s usually a June July low that forms and then there&#39;s some measure of weakness that takes place from August down into October okay so the seasonal tendency here we&#39;re going to focus on is January there&#39;s usually a low forming in the Australian dollar then there&#39;s a low that forms in March or it&#39;s a strong rally it takes us up into May and it&#39;s a tendency to create a summer low in the June July time period that trades up into around August and then we can get some weakness okay so I&#39;m gonna be using this as my idea or framework for the seasonal impact and we&#39;re gonna be trading the uh the Australian dollar I&#39;m going to be looking for a way we can do this seasonal tendency okay we&#39;re going to look at that as an example okay here we have the Australian dollar this is the monthly chart okay and I kind of want to use the the June time period as our study so I&#39;m going to actually just block this off here in the May month so where that may candle ends we&#39;re going to hypothetically say that we can&#39;t see this price action okay and I want you to remember that we called for these types of moves here and we were looking for bullishness uh we&#39;re looking for this candle in here I&#39;ll set act as support which we&#39;ll outline here in a moment but I just want you to know go back and look at the information we gave around the Australian dollar and you&#39;ll see everything that&#39;s here we talked about okay so all right so we&#39;re looking at the January March and June expectation for higher prices okay so this candle here is January 2017. okay and price did in fact rally as one would expect in terms of the seasonal tendency here&#39;s February then March now March April May had a decline so we had a little bit of an opposite effect going on in seasonal intensity but then we get back into another time period when June we anticipate bullishness again okay based on the seasonal tendency so now we have a quarterly shift too what&#39;s happened here the last several months it&#39;s been going down okay so the question I ask myself is we have a seasonal tendency okay we&#39;re referring to June as our setup here okay uh our seasonal tendency was expected or expecting higher prices in June and the quarterly shift has been uh the last couple months it&#39;s been going lower okay and at the end of May getting ready to go into June what we&#39;re trying to forecast is what takes place in June so this month right here when this ends we look back one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen fifteen sixteen Seventeen eighteen candles okay 9 to 18 candles so if we look at this back here price has been really in a consolidation Okay so I want to know what what the price has done you know in the last 9 to 18 candles on a monthly chart and if you look at what we&#39;ve seen though we&#39;ve we&#39;ve seen price come off of a low at a higher low and now we&#39;ve seen some measured retracement so the question is is we have had up to the end of May we had three months of down movement so there&#39;s three months of down Movement we need to figure out you know what does that mean does that mean that we&#39;re going to see continuation of that going down or is that more like a retracement we&#39;ll have to look at some things as we go through our process but the next point of concern is we have to look at the rate uh front in other words what&#39;s the global exchange rates for potential Banks and since we&#39;re looking at the Australian dollar we got to look at what the relationship is between the Australian currencies uh interest rate and that of the FED for the dollar so let&#39;s take a quick look over at the website that does that investing.com okay we can see all the interest rates here listed and we&#39;re looking at the Australian Bank The Reserve Bank of Australia and the interest rate is one and a half percent and the last time they changed was August 2nd 2016 they cut it 25 basis points and the next time their meeting is September 5th we have an interest rate of one and a half percent for the Australian and for the US our federal Reserve interest rate is at the time of this recording it&#39;s one and a quarter percent but they just changed it and raised it 25 basis points June 14 2017. so really this was actually one percent versus Australians one and a half percent so which had the higher interest rate Australia so from a differential standpoint I&#39;ll show you how to higher interest rate than that of the American dollar so by itself fundamentally speaking the yield attraction is better in Australian than it is of the dollar okay so we have seasonal intent seasonal Tendencies expected to go higher in June and then we expect a quarterly shift uh to take place and the rate differential is showing that the Australian dollar is higher than that of the dollar as it was shown here prior to June uh 14th the interest rate was at one percent so now we&#39;ve got to look at the market profiles let&#39;s go back over to our charts okay and going back about 18 candles you can see the market profile has been in consolidation Okay so we&#39;ve been in a Range and it&#39;s important we don&#39;t we don&#39;t want to focus on any of this over here so we have basically pretend if you will this price is a price action isn&#39;t there okay it&#39;s going to be to your learning benefit but in a moment just uh for now just ignore this okay so we&#39;ve been in a range or consolidation but inside that consolidation we got to look for Clues remember the market profile if it&#39;s consolidating you know we want to know if it&#39;s going to give us um an upside or downside break so the way we do that is we start looking for inter-market analysis okay and now we&#39;re going to ring in the dollar Index okay we&#39;ll bring in the dollar Index on a monthly chart okay you can see the monthly chart prior to um well here&#39;s August July June right here in the month of May we&#39;ve had prices down dropping lower okay so from a quarterly standpoint this has been dropping okay do we look for a reversal for the quarterly shift for the dollar or do we support the idea that it&#39;s continuously going lower well we have to take a look at the market profile in this currency as well prior to this High we were in a consolidation all of this was a range now I spent a lot of time giving you the outline about 38 minutes was describing the step-by-step process but look how fast we go through this okay I want you to keep it in time how much I&#39;m actually doing time wise to get to this outcome consolidation and we broke out of consolidation so above equal highs this is always going to be potentially what a stop run even on a monthly basis so it could be a failed break and then come back down inside the range and we get that here this is May okay so in this case we would expect the price to continuously go lower because we had a failed break here after a consolidation so once they broke out one side of the consolidation and it comes back deeper and goes through the midpoint of that we have to look for the potential for it to go down below the low end of the range okay or at least the bodies of the candles in here in that scene right there okay because the width can always be erroneous price action you can see price did invest it go down below the bodies of the candles from a monthly standpoint but how do we use this for the Aussie well if we go back to the Aussie if you look at the relationship from the December low December low in 2015 and December low in 2016 we have a higher low if we go to the dollar Index and we use the December High to the December high in 2015. we had a higher high so we had a higher high in dollar we didn&#39;t get a lower low in Aussie so from a Market structure standpoint we have s t Divergence in here okay so relatively speaking all these dollars unwilling to make a lower low where the dollar was able to make a higher high okay so this means that this is always going to be potentially what a stopper on a false break above old high and the accumulation is being seen in Aussie now we went into consolidation now we came down to a low and we rallied away so we took out this down closed candle making this a bullish order block take the open on the lowest down closed candle right there&#39;s your bullish order block we talked about this in the mentorship price on June opened traded down to that monthly order blocks open 73.80 right there okay so it opens trades down right at that level so now what we have is we have a range okay we have a range this high and this low okay this is the most recent high this is the most recent low so in terms of definition of what those ranges are this is going to be for PDA PDA rate PD array Matrix rather good brief easy for me to say I know so here&#39;s our range okay and I&#39;m going to take this off now because the smt Divergence has already been described so at this moment right here at the end of May before July I&#39;m sorry before June rather starts trading we Define our PD arrays from this point here below us we have what the bull shoulder block there&#39;s no Gap in here because the Wicks and all that and then below that is the rejection block at the close at 72.16 and then below the low with the which is the liquidity pull of cell stops so there&#39;s your discount arrays did it have every one of them in here was there a liquidity void in there no was there a vacuum Gap we talked about them no it&#39;s not okay was there a breaker no there&#39;s no breaker there either okay you only left with three choices pull a shorter block rejection block old low there&#39;s no old high back here to referred to either okay so you have three potential discount arrays now is that hard no people make this a lot harder than it has to be because I give you the the PD arrays doesn&#39;t mean not every price range is going to have every single one of them okay and chances are they&#39;re not going to be there there&#39;s only going to be a few sometimes and that&#39;s the ones you find on the chart is this uh is it ambiguous no it&#39;s it&#39;s definitive it&#39;s actually tells you exactly what you&#39;re looking for the order block rejection block oh low for liquidity pool okay so you only have three choices here first one you get to is this your block it opens trades down to it now that could potentially be a trade by itself you have to justify what&#39;s going on here is there reasons to see prices go higher here well we&#39;ll have to figure that out when we get into lower time frames but right in here we would expect this to be a support level okay so we have this specific handles opening is 73.80 do we need to round that to anything no it&#39;s at rate at 80 it&#39;s at a zero level okay if it were 73 um 82. we would round it to 73.85 okay because it&#39;s above and we&#39;re trading down to it so we have our range there and also if we Define the range that we just did here there&#39;s our high to low and equilibrium&#39;s up here so we&#39;re below equilibrium in a discount Market at a discount array so all the Frameworks there for our pdra Matrix and now we have our key levels which are here and just that quick we&#39;ve already arrived at what we would translate into a potentially bullish scenario because June is a seasonal tendency month when we should see Australian dollar rally we&#39;ve had the last three months go lower so it quarterly shift is in order it&#39;s been in retracement so is it retracing okay was it rechasing down into an order block seasonally expecting higher prices and we&#39;re in a consolidation so what&#39;s above the consolidation during the market profile uh portion of this buy stops so we were going to be targeting and a run above the range highs in here and that&#39;s going to be here there&#39;s our high and then we got a rejection block over here a little bit further to the left so once we reach this the next area of Interest would be the highest up close right in here and we even went through that okay so just that quick that&#39;s how we arrive at whether the market is bullish monthly or bearish monthly in this case we think we&#39;ve seen and mapped out rather quickly I&#39;ve done more talking than was required to determine what it is and what the range is and what the actual levels are but just that quick we can arrive at a bias for the market from a monthly standpoint and the expectation is not just one month but several months and right now we&#39;ve had the month of June and July deliver a very handsome rewards for being a long Trader on Aussie dollar and from a day trader standpoint you can use these ideas to build in um scalping and intraday trading only on the long side during this month of June and July because we&#39;re expecting this monthly outcome to come to confirm our expectations relative to our analysis on a monthly chart so hopefully this has been insightful to you obviously we&#39;ll be building on this theme as we go through the entire month the next teaching is going to be the intermediate term time frame and how I do the analysis and you can see just how quick that was it wasn&#39;t a lot of work now was it I didn&#39;t do a whole lot of acrobatics and do any of that stuff but at the same time there are so many things you can add to this to confirm and qualify for instance if we&#39;re looking at the Australian dollar in the monthly one of the things that supports this currency also is it moves very well with the s p so if we compare what the s p is doing okay and here if it&#39;s if the s p is going up which we know it has been going up uh that supports this uh this pair as well because Aussie usually tracks the s p really well that&#39;s going to close this teaching and I&#39;ll see you over on the intermediate term analysis

Transcript for:ICT Long-Term Top-Down Analysis

Transcript for:
ICT Long-Term Top-Down Analysis