Demographic Transition Model Lecture Notes

Introduction to Demographic Transition

• Model explaining changes in a country's population.
• Population stops growing when transitioning from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
• Stabilization typically occurs in industrialized countries.
• Less developed countries often follow advancements of more developed countries.

Growth Rate Explained

• Positive growth rate: population increases over time.
• Growth rate calculation:
  • Example: Country "Zed" with an initial population of 1 million.
  • Add births (20,000) and immigrants (50,000).
  • Subtract deaths (15,000) and emigrants (5,000).
  • Resulting population at year's end: 1,050,000.
  • Growth rate formula:
    • (End population - Start population) / Start population × 100.

Causes of Positive Growth Rates

• Economic benefits: children contribute to family income.
• Government incentives for more children (e.g., Japan).
• Religious influences promoting large families and discouraging contraceptives.
• Cultural value of passing down family traits.

Stages of Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1: High Birth and Death Rates

• Limited birth control; economic benefits of larger families.
• High death rates due to poor nutrition/disease.
• Example: Pre-18th Century countries.

Stage 2: Early Expanding

• Population rises as death rates drop (improved health/sanitation/food).
• Birth rates remain high.
• Example: Western Europe post-Industrial Revolution.

Stage 3: Late Expanding

• Declining death and birth rates.
• Access to contraception; smaller family preference.
• Improved healthcare and industrialization.
• Example: South America, Middle East.

Stage 4: Low Stationary

• Stabilized population with low birth and death rates.
• Influenced by improved contraception, women in the workforce.
• Examples: United States, Australia.

Stage 5: Speculative Future

• Theories on future population trends:
  • Malthusian Theory: Resource scarcity leading to stable population.
  • Anti-Malthusian Theory: Further decline in birth rates.
  • Potential for negative growth rate due to individualism or economic burden of children.
  • Government policies (e.g., China's small family policies).
  • High standards of living possibly increasing fertility rates.

Conclusion

• Demographic transition involves a shift from high to low birth and death rates with industrialization.
• Future trends uncertain: stabilization, decrease, increase, or even colonization of other planets.
• Uncertainty about future population dynamics; only time will tell.