[Music] all right Hello everybody welcome back to another episode of the market open we are live and we are a bit early today because today's a very important day we have CPI in the next 13 minutes and we're going to find out if this economy is getting ready to go or at least this stock market is getting ready to go up we are super green in the pre-markets right now pter is up 5% nvidia's up 2% Robin Hood's up 3% pretty much everything is green and I think it's green from an anticipatory perspective of like hey we think things are going to be okay we think CPI is going to come in at 2.9% which is what the economists are projecting if we come in higher than 2.9% I think we're going to have some issues if we come in lower it would be a I think it would be a massive sort of vshape that we see today uh but pretty much every Economist is expecting 2.9% on the headline 3.2% on the core if we come within those expectations I think we should be okay but we're going to find out um in the next uh in the next 13 minutes uh thank you everybody for being here and also thank you everybody for checking in on me yesterday I was indeed sick you know I I don't like missing my show uh missing my show is not really what I do I've uh I've I've done the show I think at this I don't I don't even know know how long I've done this show I think since since late 2022 but really we Ted started taking it seriously around mid 2023 um and I think I can count on two hands right maybe there's eight to nine times I've missed the show and most of it was due to travel it was not due to like oh I just don't feel like waking up in the morning but yesterday bro I woke up and it was I think I was like 7:30 or 7 a.m. and Not only was I shivering I was coughing I was sneezing I was blowing my nose I was like putting a freaking um I was I was I was like I was I was uh taking a towel to wipe my nose every two minutes and I was like I can't go live like this dude like I just like I can't go live doing this so it was one of those things where like I don't you know one of the things that I really care about in life it's kind of like a core principle for me just from like studying people that I look up to is consistency and I think consistency is the hardest thing to do in anything right in anything if you want to be successful in anything you've got to be consistent right so with this show Market Market Clos it's like that's the biggest biggest thing for me in the world it's like you have to be consistent but it's also one of those things where it's like you can't really put out quality product if you're sick like in this line of work it's not one of those things where you can just wake up and power through it because if you can't talk like people are just going to be annoyed by you sneezing every every two seconds so yeah I I hated that I missed it some people were like oh you missed it because it was a red Day first of all yesterday was a green day so and it was pretty obviously going to be a Green Day given the bouncy we're going to see but second of all no I like going live when we're red because you think you guys need me I need you guys it sucks when it's red and it's nice to have a community where you can talk to everybody when it's red it's not something to hide away from or be scared about in fact it's more important than ever to go live when it's read I just like I really asked myself in the morning could I talk for the next two hours in a meaningful way and I was like I'm not going to be able to I know I'm not gonna be able to so um yeah that's why I I I made the difficult decision to not go I think this is the first time I took a sick day in two years I I realistically think that the only other times I've missed a show is because of travel like I really can't think back to a time where I woke up dude I have done the show in some of the worst conditions ever like I remember doing the show Sofi earnings October 2023 in Vegas I had not slept the whole night but it was Sofi earnings and I was like this is important stream to go live I think this was the day before Halloween or on Halloween one of those days very close to the end of October I had not slept the whole night I was partying in Vegas it was my 26th birthday and I was like all right Carlos and Chris were in the Airbnb I was like all right it's time to go live they're like what do you mean it's time to go live I'm like we got to do the Market open they're like what are you talking about we're not doing the market I'm like no we're doing the market open it's time so I've done the show in bad circumstances never when I was sick um but yesterday I just realized like it was it makes no sense also I haven't gotten sick in two years this is the second time I'm getting sick in three weeks which I think this is what AI is used for these freaking balloons like this every time this but um I think it's I think it's two things a my immune system is probably getting weak which I need to do something about but B I couldn't avoid it my mom and dad got sacke my mom had 100 degree fever my dad didn't have a fever but he was coughing like crazy and as soon as on Saturday I realized they were sick I tried to stay away I wore the mask inside it didn't help it did not help I uh I ended up getting their their sickness so streamyard can do that but not fix the audio yeah dude it's it's it's freaking ridiculous so yeah dude I don't like missing my show I don't miss my freaking show that's something I don't do like that's just it's one of those hard rules that I have in my life like I don't miss the show this is like there's some level of consistency you have in your life on certain things you care about and if you really care about you know you just you take it really seriously but then I just you know the other thing is I had to try so I I had a flight at 3M yesterday I'm in an undis undisclosed location you guys will find out in a couple days and uh I also like I felt like [ __ ] in the morning I was like I if I could just get a couple more hours of sleep before this flight and then you know that's what I did instead of going live and so the flight ride was still painful because it was 6 hours on a cold airplane why are airplanes so cold bro like why are they so I I get that we're up in the air and it's like freezing and but like why like why don't don't they have a heater like they like now thankfully I have the entire row open to me I I don't get this lucky bro I usually don't get the entire row open to me especially because I pick basic economy I pick basic economy so usually I was just happy I got a window seat I was like oh thank goodness I could not given how sick I am I could not stay in the middle I cannot stay in the middle I wanted an aisle but I got the window I was like all right at least I'm not stuck in the middle um um but but but I ended up getting the whole row that it was nice to get the whole row but then I was like damn it was United but then I was like damn Delta was right Delta said their freaking Delta's guidance was like people aren't traveling anymore and I'm like well if I have I have not had a whole row open in a long time I'm like all right maybe people aren't traveling so at the same time I was like thank goodness I have the whole Ro but then I was like it doesn't matter it means the economy is tanking right so that's that's what I was thinking uh yes my hair is crazy right now I get it it's Bed Head it is what it is right now I just I'm still I'm still [ __ ] I'm I just need to get better before tomorrow tomorrow is really important and I need to get better so I'm still uh I'm still a bit sick but I'm not as sick as yesterday and so that's why we're here yeah usually I wear a hat today I'm not wearing a hat today I just I just said screw it so you guys are seeing my my carp hair go crazy um see everyone this Michelle's right every focus on the hair this is why I wear hats I told you guys my hair is crazy dude I need like a real stylist to like give me a new hair dude because this [ __ ] is just crazy all the time or I need a freaking perm or something I don't know I need to do something with my hair bro this year I need to do something with my hair but my hair is insane anyway I'm happy to be back uh I won't be doing the market close today but that's because we're actually I'm actually working tomorrow I will be doing the market open even though tomorrow is going to be tight so it's going to be a shorter Market open you guys will see why tomorrow is going to be uh fun day but um but yeah again I don't like missing the show I really don't like missing the show and unfortunately yesterday I just kind of had to there was there was no way I I could go live and do the show I I could have gone live yesterday but I would be sniffling every two minutes and I'm like that people would be annoyed like that's just like it's not someone someone left to comment that was funny he's like are you really Indian if you take a day off from work and they're right bro Indians don't take it my dad has not taken a day off from work for basically 40 years like he doesn't like he doesn't take off from dude he was going to work during Co he just he does not take off and so that's also part of my work ethic right it's like you know I I but but but it's also like he does something different than me I'm speaking to a lot of people and if you're like constantly coughing and sneezing it's just not it's not going to be good quality product so it's not going to work we got CPI in the next five minutes that's going to be very important the little bell is back because we're in Airbnb and we couldn't bring the big Bell the little bell is back maybe the little the little bell brings us back to uh early February when we had a ton of green so we're going to see what happens there by the way uh I am bullish cureg the arbnb people were so nice to have a CG machine this is the first time I've tried kg ever ever in my life why don't you guys tell me Kure egg is actually like dude why am I paying for Starbucks like I'm I think I'm gonna buy a cure egg like this was the it took like five minutes to make French roast the coffee is great it's not like it's that much different from Duncan or Starbucks I know this is ironic because I was making fun of William Sonoma getting into the S&P 500 over Robin Hood and making fun of the fact that they sell $4,000 coffee machines but a curg is not $4,000 right it's like5 not $5 like like like maybe two 300 maybe 500 at the most so French roast great coffee nothing's wrong with it and so there you go uh I am bullish I'm bullish cure egg and bullish coffee and hopefully the market is BU bullish in the next four minutes when it comes to uh when it comes to CPI so the Market's up right now we are green very very green Robin it right here up 2.7% Bitcoin 8 and the fact that Bitcoin is trying to get to like 85 just shows you how much um excitement the market has over this CPI report uh a cure egg is only $80 holy crap dude yeah I'm definitely buying a cure egg this is like I don't know why I've been buying coffee anywhere else this is like so cheap um it's not like the juros from William Sonoma that are freaking 4,000 but um I did not see the U season 5 trailer yet I've been living under a rock for the past day I've just like been sleeping and been sick so I've kind of been disconnected but I will watch U season 5 show that's my favorite show on Netflix so we're going to be watching that but anyway the markets are up right now they're excited uh I really hope we get a good CPI report this is what the analysts are expecting 2.9% is what we need uh if we don't get it I think we're screwed just gonna be honest uh we need 2.9 if we if we see 3% on the headline I think we're screwed bro I'm not going to lie I like seeing 3% of the headline is not going to be good now I don't think we're going to get 3% of the headline because it would shock every single bank that you're seeing right here Bank of America deuts Bank Goldman Sachs Jeff like they tend to get it right uh usually I mean like they would have to really have older research go the wrong way if they get it wrong or inflation would have to be just like disgusting so I think uh I think we'll be okay at 2.9 do you think it was leaked well that's what everyone's thinking for why we were green I don't think I don't think CPI was why we were green yesterday I think the reason we were green is just because we got a bounce we'll talk about everything that happened yesterday because I I was keeping up I if you if you were following me on Twitter you saw some of my posts on Twitter I was keeping up with everything that was happening with Trump and Elon and all that stuff so I mean I think yesterday's bounce was a pretty obvious bounce after a aggressive um worst day of 2025 but um we're g to have to sustain it now and I don't know if we're in the market where it's like a v-shaped recovery I think it's going to be more like a u and I think there's going to be some dead cap bounces and maybe yesterday was a dead cap like I don't trust it yet is what I'm trying to say I need to see it really sustain itself and I don't think there's a reason to trust it the Tariff volatility is still aggressive now Trump did say yesterday he's taking away some of the tariffs from Canada which also got the market to be excited um I mean I guess that's but like if Trump a Tesla right here up 3% but if Trump like starts talking about why we need to have more tariffs tomorrow like the market will get upset so I think again we're in a really weird spot right now where markets really want to bounce because the earnings growth does not justify some of these multiples in particular Nvidia like Nvidia does not deserve to be trading at in my opinion these levels at a 24 times PE with better profit margins than most of the max sens but um as a hardware company too but you know this is where they're at so I think the Market's ready to bounce if they get the Catalyst and today's CPI in about 50 seconds is going to be uh the most important Catalyst here all right let's see let's see let's see and remember inflation's also technically up because a lot of people were importing goods from um from in Q4 because they were so afraid of of tariffs coming in q1 now it looks like those spares were correct because we we do have tariffs on aluminum and steel that have gone into effect as of today so those are definitely in so now we're goingon to have to see how much of an impact that does that actually have when it comes to when it comes to Topline CPI all right folks 12 seconds here we go we need 2.9 we really need 2.9 that's what the market wants on the headline it comes in a little a little bit higher I don't know what it's going to be like a little bit lower would be awesome but 2.9 is what we need all right we should be getting it really soon we should be getting it very soon 2.9 did we get 2.9 Let me refresh this 2.8 wow we got 2.8 oh my gosh we got 2.8 we got 2.8 do you guys see that do you guys see that hold on where is it where is it where is it we got 2.8 2.8 there it is inflation rate 2.8% 2.8 oh thank the heavens above thank God oh my goodness we got 2.8 markets are Nvidia 4% S&P 2% baby wow what a ripper Hood's got to be above 40 Hood uh not above 40 but it's up 6% that's nice Bitcoin 842 look at that $1,400 candle it's a nice candle Palante tier 83 um Amazon's up 2% meta's up 2% Tesla up 6% that's very nice to see Tesla hit a low of 215 a couple days ago now it's at 243 rocket lab 11% rocket lab also had some deal this morning which is what's helping them uh so they're up 11% right now red wire is up 4% Royal Caribbean's up 1% Carnival Cruz is up 2% United Airlines is 2% okay before we keep going first poll I'm going to do in the chat because you know I gotta ask this question is do you think that you can trust this report to have a sustained bouse archers up 6% yeah all right so Market likes it we need a 2.8 we needed 2.8 or we need a 2.9 we got 2.8 do you trust the CPI green do you trust it do you trust it do you trusted okay let's get some live reaction to this real quick and then we'll get deeper into the numbers on what we've got with CPI 2.8 on the headline what was the core let me see the core real quick the core was um three 3.1 the market thought it would be 3.2 wow so we went lower on the core and month over month Market thought3 we came in at 0.2 we came in lower on every metric that's a good report bro that's not a horrible report that's another alltime high going back to 1913 if you look at core that was started in 1957 it comes in at 32547 and guess what another new alltime for ever high go use that inflation tool on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the website and what you'll find is inflation's running over 20% on a compounded basis going back to preco interest rates initially moved lower as they looked at the month over Monon numbers you know that parlor game you analyzed these numbers but in the end they're still sticky and just to point out something our last look still unrevised these inflation numbers were hot last time unlike today where they're a bit cooler and what happened we settled on February 12th the last time January CPI was out at 463 in a 10e it was the high Watermark hot inflation all we've done since is go lower and the reason I point that out is there's a lot of moving Parts pushing yields around these days Andrew back to you okay Rick thank you for that uh okay we'll get some more coverage on that in a second here is the actual report report right here on uh on CPI so um 2.8% again that was what we we got on the on the headline which was very very important the index for shelter rose. 3% accounting for nearly half of all items increase again shelter continues to be the freaking thing that gets the market upset it's it's this shelter thing and you know true inflation a lot of these other websites that are tracking inflation anyone who's been like looking at shelter in depth thinks that that's lagging but the FED says it's 50% of the increase um shelter was offet by a 4% decrease in the index for airline fairs and a 1% decrease in the index for gasoline okay so this isn't that bullish gasoline one is bullish the airline fairs sorry the airline fairs is kind of weird I was I was making a joke that when I was flying to where I'm at right now I had the whole row free and Ed I was happy that I had the whole row free but immediately I thought wait a second is demand going down for Airlines a 4% decrease in the index for airline fairs means that airlines are decreasing their costs to get more consumers to come in which means consumers might not be as easily getting in right that's that that's that's I mean this Delta's guidance showed a 50% decline in q1 guidance now we're seeing a 4% decrease in in freaking uh CPI because of Airline fairs that to me means people might not be traveling that much the index for all items less food and energy Rose 2% following a 0 4% increase the in all items index uh for two was 2 point up 2.8% excluding uh food and energy Medical Care used cars and trucks were up household Furnishings were up uh Recreation was up apparel was up personal care was up Airline fairs and new vehicles were the indices that decreased were the ones that decreased okay so Airline fairs and gas went down energy shelter and pretty much everything else went up Southwest is up 1% JetBlue is up 2% where is Delta they were down 20% yesterday they are up 2% not really recovery but at least it's something Bitcoin just below 84,000 Robin Hood below $39 it's up 6.4% meta back at 623 Tesla's up 6% 244 blocks up 2% you know what's also going to be really important today is who sells into the strength because you finally got a green day after what seems like three weeks of red I think there's going to be some people that take advantage of this and say all right I'm out of this market I'll be back later I'm going to sell into this maybe some people buy into this but we're going to see nvidia's up 4% and then grab is up 2.7 % as well by the way that company grab's trying to buy go-to their biggest competitor in Indonesia they had their earnings today and in the call they said that they would be open to an acquisition with grab so that could be some piece of news that the market runs on as well smci right here is up 7% yeah look at that 4360 that one's really moving as well what did you guys say on the poll uh 59% of you say you trust the CPI green all right once the Market opens we're going to see if this green actually can be TR trusted Steve lean is right here looking at these numbers yeah there was a concern we' come in on the high side by the way did anyone see Steve Leeman Who is the senior economics reporter for CNBC yesterday say Trump is insane live on uh television yesterday he went on like a three minute rant on why Trump's tariff policies are insane so uh he's not happy with Trump and tariffs and he took advantage of that yesterday to let everybody know everybody said they were looking for upside surprise so it's really good to come in uh below here uh you got some help from food Andrew uh up just 02 you you got a pop in the uh I have the egg category but not eggs themselves on the Topline data meat pulser fish and eggs up 1.6% after 1.9 the month before um dairy products were down I don't want to go through too too exhaustively energy was well behaved you got a decline in Airline fairs down 4% we don't know if that's a demand thing or that's just an energy thing being passed through and then of course the owner's equivalent rent has been much better behaved right now and where we are is we're going to see some impact of the tariffs nobody knows how much um I I can't tease it out of here right now I've been looking I'd look for core Goods XX uh uh used cars would be one place to look for it that's one places where people were concerned you might see that first initial round we're going to see some impact in the months ahead nobody knows how much it's very difficult to game it out right now right now the uh uh Street is look the tenure is not oh my God the 10e spiking this is the opposite of what Trump why is the 10e spike hold on we beat on every single metric why is the tenure up who has a theory on that why is this is not what Trump wants to see you know what I I think I think Trump has a picture of the tenure or a live ticker of the tenure on on his desk in the Oval Office and every time he sees it Spike he he puts out another tweet about tariffs to create more volatility why is this going up why are people not buying bonds right here why are they selling off bonds off of a Miss on inflation on every metric which is good like like if just does no one trust it or this is not what we're supposed to be seeing we're supposed to be seeing the opposite looking for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve these kind of numbers get the FED closer to where it could be but you would think it would still be a little bit too hot for them to say okay I'm going to cut next week but in this trajectory you can say you know we could May think about one if you don't get a big oh that's true I forgot yeah people might be selling bonds to buy stocks yeah that's fair that's a fair point that's kind of obvious yeah this is why it's such a tricky situation dude if people sell bonds to buy stocks that pushes Bond y olds higher that's great for all of us but it's not great for Trump's agenda it's this is why It's Tricky dude it's really tricky to navigate what's going on in this market right now and we're gonna have to see how Trump reacts to this and Lasting in other words this idea of the past through it's the big and Lasting tariff impact that I think would most likely stay the fed's hand but you still want to see the CPI numbers tomorrow P PPI numbers tomorrow ppi is where you would see it first but again we talked about this for a long time there's pass through and pass through you could reduce margin that's bad for investors in stocks if there's a margin reduction but it's better for consumers if they eat it I remember that chart I showed that you were a little bit perplexed about all these stations along the way where tariff impact can be reduced um there are four or five places where you could absorb it we'll see how much along has to do with how much competition we have in the business all right so that's what we got on CPI for those that are just joining CPI comes in 2.8 versus 2.9% core comes in at 3.1 versus 3.2 um the majority of you in the poll said that you trust this green I want to say yes but I'm still a little skeptical of this green um I think a lot of people are going to take the opportunity to potentially sell into it because they've been waiting I mean if you don't trust the market and you finally see a Green Day and you break even I think some people sell into that now granted we're going to have to see what headlines come out today Sofi right here up 5% as well but it just shows you how quick the market can turn right like did Sofi deserve to be $10.65 two days ago probably not and now that it's back at 1187 even if it might not last for for the next few hours like it can turn on a dime right it's easy for this Market to immediately U-turn it needs a catalyst but then the question is is the Catalyst enough to get people to hold and buy into this rally I mean Reddit was up 15% yesterday it's up 6% right now after falling basically 50% but is there enough momentum is there enough momentum TLT that safety trade everyone loves that one's tanking right now not tanking but it's down half a percent it was down 1% yesterday because bond yields are up Nvidia is up 4% this is this is going to be a little weird bro Trump I think I'm getting more and more convinced oh so like so we've been talking about this Theory a lot on the on the show right that Trump wants the market to tank in order to get yields to come down we got another form of confirmation from this yesterday dude I know some people don't love this Theory but I can't keep ignoring some of the smartest investors of our time that are basically co-signing this Theory here's what Ron Baron said yesterday listen to what he says towards the end of this clip it's a minute long about how he's thinking about uh what the Trump Administration is doing uh let me ask you very quickly right now how you're feeling about the overall markets you're a value investor when stocks comes down come prices come down sometimes value investors get pretty excited how do you feel about things what makes people very uh unsettled right now all the things that are happening so quickly um I think they're intentional I think that um the government you had um musk incredibly consequential person uh advising the president uh and I think that all the things they say that make the market go up or down you shouldn't think that those are U by you know by uh miscommunication or they they're all intentional not intentional to drive the stock market down to get to a different place for the economy and well everything I think they might even be intentional to try to slow down the economy get rid of look at what he just said I think it might be intentional to slow down the economy and get interest rates down I mean this this this is one of our this is one of the greatest investors of all time in my opinion went super long Tesla SpaceX when no one believed in it he's sitting on I think 125 billion dollars of equity within those two companies and his argument is yeah I think Trump's creating volatility because he cares more about yields versus the stock market stock market down to get to a different place for the economy well everything I think they might even be intentional to try to slow down the economy get rid of inflation first term president the first thing you do is try to do things that are going to be unattractive to your constituents uh you know if you're going running for election but you do it now get it out of the way and then a year and a half from now then things will look better so I mean look I don't think this means that Trump is the smartest guy in the world for what he's doing I think this theory is very dangerous I think he's playing with fire but more and more we are seeing people that are in very high levels within the investment Community basically agreeing that this is what they think the administration is doing in fact not only has Trump said this many times but his press secretary yesterday when asked about why the S&P 500 has lost all of its gains since the election basically avoided the question and said we're committed to tariffs more than the stock market Karen thanks um just back on the market you said that that what we're seeing this week right now on Wall Street is a snapshot of a moment in time but does the president think he Bears any responsibility for the turmoil in the stock market this week look the president uh is unwavering in his commitment to restore American manufacturing and Global not to the stock market right and like the press secretary is just an echo of the president so the president told her when they asked about the market talk about tariffs dominance and I think he doubled down on that this morning with his new statement uh and the tariffs that will be implemented tomorrow on steel and aluminum and he has said recently he's not looking at the market he said you can't really watch St the stock market but all of the gains since election day have been erased in the S&P 500 at what point how far do stocks have to fall before the president considers it a factor and and changes course again as I just said the president will look out for Wall Street and for Main Street just like he did in his first term and people on Wall Street and Main Street should bet on this president he's doing what's right Karen so I mean look there you go so so so the only reason I bring this up is because this is really good news the CPI coming in lower than expected is great it gets the a little bit closer to cutting rates the problem is the market has been thinking the FED would cut rates because of fears of a recession not because of fears of inflation coming down because inflation is not meaningfully coming down if you look at the CME fed probability watch tools we are at 41% I think that's a little bit lower if not if I'm not wrong uh than yesterday so rate reduction chances have uh have decreased in June we are at 54% so it's looking very likely in June that we get that cut in March we are still at 3% so uh March 19th which is 7 days from now I don't think we're going to get the cut but may hopefully is the next time for us to uh get a chance to to get that cut you guys are having great jokes in the chat about the hair I got to make a compilation of these jokes style says I'm gonna get Aid a $100 gift card to Great Clips someone said I look like a guy the DEA would would be busting you guys these are great this is why I wear a hat every morning I know my hair is too freaking distracting but today today I just didn't care dude I'm too sick to to deal with all that Nvidia right here up 4% SMC up 6.5 PayPal's up 1.2 Robin Hood's up 4.8 I want to trust this green bro I really want to trust this green I just don't trust it yet I really I especially with this 10e spiking I don't know how the administration is going to think of this because now those beloved mortgage rates are probably going to go up as well and that's not what Trump wants who would have thought bro who would have thought maybe some of you guys thought but I did not think Trump's term or first term or first whatever 100 days of his first term would be rooted in this idea of like screw the markets let's just focus on yields even though that's kind of what he was telling us but I guess I didn't take him seriously or I didn't read between the lines or no one took him as seriously and this is um this is how it's playing out there was a good chart that we were seeing on um on the first couple months of his term in the stock market and you can see Trump versus Trump 1.0 versus Obama versus I'll see if I can find the chart but pretty much every chart is going up and to the right and then Trump is just like going to the bottom first UH 60 days of the administration which is what we're seeing for Trump 2.0 was that is in his policy uh pre-election yeah I mean to an extent when he was talking about tariffs which I guess would but I don't think anyone thought that this was the plan that they were going to focus on rates more than stocks everyone thought they were going to focus on stocks and like just growth but that's not exactly what's happening as a result of what Trump's been doing coin is now going in into India that was some good news yesterday so that's big for coinbase big for India because there's a massive crypto appetite in India dude I I I me I met a lot of people in India um that care about crypto just like friends of friends when I was there back in October and I when I would ask them about investing they didn't talk about stocks they talked about crypto more than stocks um so so crypto is definitely a big thing in India and I think coinbase is gonna have some success there look at the ma s forward PE it is the lowest level since 2017 thing about all the earnings growth since 2017 on the mag 7 this is what Trump has been able to give us the lowest mag 7 forward PE that we've seen versus the S&P 493 since 2017 I mean we have not got these levels in over seven years at this point so uh this type of volatility is being I guess welcomed by some people but obviously other people hate it and this is kind of the nature of of where we're at right now in the current state of the markets and CP C is good but CPI is going to be one of those things that the Administration has to tackle from a perspective of if they really want to see all this good news be good news versus bad news let's hear from Brad gersner he is a longtime Tech investor he is a supporter of the Trump Administration and support of Elon let's get his thoughts on what he's thinking is happening right now in the markets uh during this uniquely maybe uncertain timee of this you know well we started the year first it's great to be here I put on a tie for you got rid of the black t-shirt for the day um you know we started the year markets at an all-time high we had seen a big Trump bump coming out of the November election and when you listen just to the words of the president we knew this was going to be a big period of transition right we were going from a period of four years of2 trillion doll deficits massive fiscal stimulus massive monetary stimulus and we're going to delever the economy right he talked very openly about the tariffs more reciprocity fairer trade talked openly about the fact we're going to have some level of austerity uh with Doge Etc that we'll get into today you periods of uncertainty we have high economic uncertainty High political uncertainty and high technological uncertainty and high multiples right at alltime high multiples so there's only one thing that can happen discount rates have to go up right risk premiums have to go up and when they do multiples come down so for us that was just a period to say okay we'll go to the sidelines we'll wait this out a little bit we've seen the markets come back in and I have to tell you we were buying some yesterday because now you see Nvidia 18 or 19 times next year's earnings now you're getting paid margin so here's the question do you think that the which I agree when you get these valuations to get as cheap as they've gotten someone like Brad gersner who's been in tech for a long time I mean he obviously gets excited by the way this is the chart I was looking for real quick so in the first term 2017 when Trump got elected as you can see the s&p500 relatively started going up I mean maybe some small dips here and there but 2017 was a great year uh the second term we are just going straight down so that is the big difference between the first term and the and the second term the uncertainty I would argue the uncertainty does not feel like it's over unless you think it is no I listen the market now is firmly ensconced in understanding that we're in a period of uncertainty so I think think about the first 10% down uh Andrew which uh I think the NASDAQ troughed it down 14% yesterday from its peak okay the first 10% is just digesting the fact that there is more uncertainty this week was the first week where I saw a banner on CNBC that says fears of recession so the second 10% really is about growth and recession and where are you on that so I think the handoff between these two policies right can be messy and it could tip Us in to growth current concerns or recession we heard Delta uh warn earlier this week we heard cautionary comments out of Walmart so I don't think we can you know go slowly through this transition I think the economy is fundamentally sound but I think we need to get clarity around the tariffs we need to get clarity around taxes we need to get clarity around reconciliation and Doge I think the president's going to lead us in that but just just to clarify you were speaking pretty publicly about this back in early February you did had a podcast where you talked about those things did you sell stocks when you say you stepped to the sideline yes so you sold a lot of the positions and and now you're starting to so we took down our gross exposure so that's our Longs Plus or shorts we took down our net exposures really to kind of the bottom desile of exposure that altimeter would normally have again it's just in the two hard bucket as Warren Buffett would say you know it wasn't because we thought we're going to fall off a cliff but we were concerned that this could be more messy than people thought um because the magnitude of the change you buy with both hands in the NASDAQ what what is the what what you would think is wow this is dirt cheap 20% 25% from the off the peak off the peak oh well I I you know again it's all all fact and Circumstance uh dependent if we're heading in a positive direction fundamentally which I think we are right I think we're heading in a progrowth lower regulation fiscally more responsible Direction the other side of right and so when you're when you're off 20% to me that's probably a huge buying opportunity because remember this Joe as of yesterday the average stock in the Russell 3000 was down 30% the average stock most stocks in the in the NASDAQ I was looking at were down 20 to 40% so yes the index was only down 14 because of the mag sev's weight in the index the timing is a dangerous game but the question is to the extent you think this continues to be messy right how how messy is it how much how messy how much more is there and to the extent there's some people who are sitting around going you know what the knife is falling I'm going to let it the mess could be that's the opportunity right and but the markets bought them long before the mess stops that's the you said the next 10% would be you're suggesting that there is another 10 listen the the future is a distribution of unknown probability so there of course is a probability right there's a certain distribution right that we're going to have we're going to go further down and let me give you some scenarios maybe a framework to guide how we're thinking um so first the president said April 2nd's going to be a big day Howard lutnick has come on here said April is going to be a big day we're going to announce the reciprocity tariffs so I think we have to wait and see we have to wait and see what that is now the question is is that the start Andrew or or or or the end right right if that's just saying you know we think the Europeans have2 trillion dollars of non-tariff trade barriers against the United States and we're going to impose very high tariffs against the Europeans then it's more like a start than an end and the Europeans are already making noise this morning to say that there would be reciprocal tariffs to our re reciprocal tariffs if that's what so I think so listen on the tariffs issue itself if you believe that we're heading in the direction I see Peter Navaro come on here uh sometimes I think he I think he's great but if you think we're heading in the direction of high structural permanent McKinley style tariffs then we have further to go down there's not a lot of support on Capital what do you think right about so so I don't I fun I fundamentally think that you know the president is negotiator and chief he likes to keep all of us uh off balance he likes to keep all of his negotiating counterparties off balance I think it's probably a pretty effective negotiating technique um in order to do so he has to make you believe that he might actually impose super high protectionist structural tariffs but at his core I think he's a free Trader at his core I think he wants to make but here here's the question from the timing perspective that at least I'm thinking about maybe I'm wrong about this so we have April second coming and I don't know where and if by the way if you're a negotiator and Chief and you want leverage over people the truth is you might actually continue that process correct for a longer period of time okay then you're going to hit the summer and we're gonna have a big conversation in America about taxes and our budget that will go through the end of this year yes okay again more uncertainty because I think that'll be done no he he wants a bill on his desk by the end of May the reconciliation package whether or not it gets there is a question could could Fade Into June or July but I don't think it's going to be the end when do you think that's all going to get resolved well I think we're going story in America my sense is that you got to take it as it comes price you know the Market's going to adjust along the way but if you think there's a clearing event thus far I don't see any clearing event right we're still in the the land of the ambiguous every day everybody's waking up in the morning to see what was said overnight um I think April 2nd will provide a little bit more clarity I'm hopeful that may will give us what we need I hope that's the clearing event I hope we know at that point in time what reconciliation bring flowers exactly um but listen the fact that everybody is operating on that framework probably tells me that's not how it's going to work Joe to your point about the market gets ahead of these things it discounts it faster and so a lot of this has gotten discounted in very quickly I said on that podcast uh with with my partner Bill Gurley bg2 uh in early February I said you know I my only surprise on February 4th was that the markets hadn't reacted yeah because they had said the words right they had said very people didn't believe them because everybody thought that that Trump cared more about the stock market than he appears to care EX and I don't think anyone can blame themselves for for for not um taking Trump at his word I mean universally most people even if you hate Trump like you still were happy that we were rallying and you probably weren't selling selling into the rally I mean you were probably just like all right we're really going to go up even if I despise Trump and his political aspirations at least the stock market's going to go up but it was very hard to get bearish when Trump got elected on the market but I guess that was the right strategy because he said tariffs were going to create volatility and now we're in the midst of that volatility exactly but then there's another question talking about the stock market which is he may not care about it today yeah but as you get closer to the midterms yeah I imagine he just gonna care maybe he's not gonna care you tell me he cares about Congress but he doesn't care about each person that as much as he cares about you know I honest I honestly believe you know and I was and this goes to when does he have to get all this resolved by because he start to work the right way if you believe the midterm he is not getting up every morning watching CNBC and adjusting policy based upon whether the market whether the Futures are up or down that morning I know there is a cons a conventional wisdom that that's the case I think this president went through a lifechanging moment in Butler Pennsylvania and I think he wants this term to be of consequence I think he has beliefs that go back 30 or 40 years you know I had a CEO of a major company send a video of the president from 2016 talking about tariffs and he said what's your what's your reflection on this I said the man has been remarkably consistent for 30 years on this issue can I ask you so we talk taxes so 2017 becomes permanent what's that four trillion something like that uh you do the other tax cuts I don't know how many of those actually go through the tips and Social Security three trillion for just about every one of them we're already on two on track for another two trillion doll deficits before any of that this year yeah he says he won't touch entitlements yeah um Doge isn't going to take care of$ 37 trillion that we already have and we're going to keep adding to it what what can he I mean that's a worst problem for me long long term yeah this President and his economic team which is incredible Kevin hasset bessent you know uh the Commerce Secretary Howard uh you know he's got great advice around him and they want to reduce the deficit during his term in office frankly I think he would love to get he said he would love to get to a balanced budget how but I certainly think we'll get to 2% of GDP under his term here's how I think we get there um most of the tax cuts are extensions Joe but I agree with you tax on tips I think that's 80 billion taxes on overtime you're not going to be able to do all of them at the scope perhaps that people are estimating but I don't think the CBOE has the the extensions the CBO CB sorry yeah not the offs um I don't think the CBO has has those tax cuts as permanent in the numbers that adds how much if if it that's why that's why they did it in 2017 they're going to scale these to seven to 10 years but by the way will in s to 10 years the these things are going to expire and they're going to have to be reauthorized and you just heard Ray Doo say you know 7 to eight% debt to GDP is unsustainable everybody knows get I think we can get to 2% and here's where I here's how we get there I've tweeted about this you can see the chart uh Elon retweeted this chart yet we we were if you just Baseline 2019 federal spending and in 2019 nobody on this set thought kids were starving in the streets or weren't being educated or we weren't spending enough as a federal government right we spent four and a half trillion dollars in 2019 grow that at 3% a year if you Baseline that we should be spending about5 A5 trillion dollars this year instead we spent 7 trillion last year that is covid stimulus that is the Red Bull high that we all put ourselves on so if you just went back to the 2019 Baseline you grew it to 2029 that's Six Trillion in spending okay I think we can get the the the the uh the federal revenues to six to six and a half trillion by 2029 by just growing two two and a half percent so I think there is a reasonable shot at getting close to balance at $6.5 trillion do in 2029 but you're not going to get the entire wish list I'm feeling I'm feeling good we've had people who have come in and said the the wish list all right well uh we'll go back to that in a little bit we got about 29 minutes until the Market opens I'm happy you guys are having fun in the chat focusing on everything besides uh besides the stock market and your F you know this reminds me of when I was in freaking uh elementary school I had like a Justin Bieber haircut believe it or not I gotta show you I don't have any pictures on my phone but maybe on Facebook I have some pictures and like it really I had like a Justin Bieber haircut and everyone called me Justin Bieber but um yeah this this is why I wear a hat every day because you guys just would get too distracted anyway markets are up uh Robin it up 6.4% Bitcoin 84,000 look I agree with the majority of what Brad gersner said the question is going to be if it's actually possible right if it's actually possible and I don't think we know if what gersner said is going to end up working the the big problem with what he's saying is that it all is is contingent on Doge actually being a thing and Doge working and I think a lot of us right now are trying to figure out is Doge going to work Ray doio came out yesterday and he said that uh the debt to GDP ratio that we have is completely unsustainable now Ray Doo has been talking about this for a very long time so this is not new for Dalo but even he's getting to the point where like where it's just like this is this is not going to work anymore if we have this type of debt to GDP which is why I agree that elon's got to do something is it going to hurt Tesla in the meantime yeah I mean it's pretty obvious that it's hurting Tesla in the meantime and it's it's it's it's it's crushing shareholder value but um Ray doio says the us is going to be completely screwed over the coming decade if we don't do anything with our debt crisis and I think elon's trying to do at least something his goal is to reduce the deficit by about a trillion dollars we'll see if that can happen but uh it's going to be very important for someone to do something or we're gonna have to grow out of it and I mean I don't know if we can grow out of it our GDP estimates already went down for q1 uh AI would have to live up to the hype like really live up to the hype we would have to have productivity gains out the wazo and it's just like that stuff needs to happen for us to believe it but one thing we can control is is is is is expenses at least to an extent we can start cutting and I think that's what the market is trying to figure out if if they believe that the FED is going to be able to or at Doge the White House Etc this Administration is going to be able to pull this off the 10year spiking right now is not good again this is the real Nuance of this stock market right now Trump doesn't want the 10e to go up wants this thing to collapse closer to like 3.5% this type of a CPI report making stocks more attractive isn't really doing that we're not getting the really bad economic data that we need to get this tenure to collapse AKA recessionary data we've gotten some pieces of bad data but overall nonfarm payrolls were good jobs data was good jolt oh by the way we didn't get to talk about jolts yesterday because I was gone but dude what did you guys think of the jolts data because the jolts data came out and it was freaking more than expected 7.74 million versus um versus 7 uh 7.71 so we actually beat on jolts right and it's one of those things where it's like hold on okay so for the people saying it's fake here's my question this is the same BLS that was part of the Biden Administration and the Trump Administration I don't think anyone can call it fake because because if you call if you called the Biden administration's um job numers fake are you calling the Trump administration's job numbers fake and if it's all fake then it's like like is there any CR credibility to the idea that it's fake because now Trump's cooking the books as well right like like at some level I think we have to agree that it's not fake in a reasonable way otherwise then it's not it wasn't Biden's quote unquote jobs it's everyone's jobs and if the BLS is saying hey these are the amount of jobs that are open um we have to agree with it otherwise you think Trump's cooking the books as well like at that point every president is cooking the books and we can't just blame this on on Biden so I mean from that perspective maybe you do think it's fake and then Trump's cooking the books as well but this doesn't make sense we should not have these many jobs open if we are having this massive economic recession coming along the way and I don't I I I I mean I don't know like even if it's January numbers that that doesn't matter like Trump trump started transitioning to get into office by end of November early December so I mean I guess we can wait another month and see if there but do you really think in February we're GNA have a massive decline in jobs from January and like and like and we're going to see like five million jobs open because the way Trump wants this tenure to be acting is as if we are losing an incredible amount of jobs and that's just not happening that is absolutely not happening right now which is why it's really hard to price in the recession and that's why I think stocks are up right now because after you got that job zity yesterday you got nonfarm payrolls and then you see CPI coming to the downside yeah why would you buy bonds you you you'd probably be more excited to get Nvidia trading at 24 times earnings uh but it's not exactly what I think the administration wants I think they wanted really crappy job data even though they say they want good job data to be able to get the FED to cut and that's not exactly that's that's not exactly what's happening right now so I mean I mean like I like I I if if I guess we'll wait till February if everyone really wants to wait till February to say that the numbers aren't cooked and maybe we get some dramatic drop off in February and then you can say like all right Biden was cooking the numbers but you can't have it both ways if was cooking it I mean Trump's cooking it too if if you don't believe these job numbers and at some point we either believe them or we just believe everyone's cooking it this is a S&P 500 Index to inauguration day as you can see Obama's 2013 Trump 2017 Biden 2021 markets did pretty damn well and Trump 2025 it is 50 days after the inauguration going the opposite direction so again another chart that kind of just basically makes the argument that uh these these policies that the administration is focusing on just aren't the best ones for for the broader Market even if it's good for the American economy these are percentage below 52 week highs these numbers are probably a little bit uh to to the upside based on the momentum we're seeing this morning but as you can see S&P 500 down 9% yesterday we were down or two days ago we were down 10% that was official correction territory Apple's 15% the Russell iwm talk about a horrible trade small caps have not done well down 18% Microsoft down 18% meta down 18% Amazon down 19% Bitcoin 24% Nvidia 29 pound 39 micro strategy 52 fcoin 90% trumpcoin 80% all of these down from their 52e highs post Trump being elected it is pretty obvious some of these risk on assets have not been uh met with the benefits of being risk on because the market right now currently doesn't seem to be as risk on how do we quantify that the Market's not risk on right now well take a look at this we talked about this moving average two days ago uh we got yesterday's data now total us put option volume just hit its highest level ever not in 2025 not in 2024 not over the past couple years ever in the history of put option volumes this is on uh not just the S&P 500 but anything right if you buy if you buy puts on any stock any individual index whatever may be it's at its highest level ever to me this this smells like ridiculous amounts of fear and that fear may be unwarranted but then again that fear might be warranted because of this administration's uh par paradoxical policies around how they kind of want bad news for it to be good news but they also kind of want good news to be able to take credit for the good news aka the labor market being good but they kind of can't have the labor market be that good because uh they need the FED to have a catalyst to cut as a result fear and greed is at 18 I think on Monday we were at 14 that's when it got really bad yesterday we spiked up because of the little bit of a rebound that we had today we'll see if the market can sustain its momentum but overall uh we are definitely seeing more and more uh fear that is meaningfully entering the market let's talk about Tesla um I am a little worried about Tesla going into q1 and the reason I worried about Tesla going into q1 is because although it was super cool to see Trump um endorse Elon yesterday it also felt like he had to do it because he knows Tesla's struggling and the reason Tesla's struggling is because Elon spending time at Doge and it seems like he wanted to help pump up Tesla which is why he did this yesterday like this is super cool I love it I think it's awesome that Trump's embracing Elon when Biden wouldn't even say his name but it's also like all right are you doing this to get your Maga base to buy Teslas which historically a Maga you know voter would not really want a Tesla just based on like statistical studies we've seen maybe they start to want to buy Teslas because of trump but it's also like is he doing this at the behest of Elon who's like dude like Tesla's losing a lot of value I need some help here and and maybe that's why it's happening I'm gonna buy and I'm to buy because number one it's a great product as good as it gets and number two because this man has devoted his energy and his life to doing this I think he's been treated very unfairly by a very small group of people and I just want people to know that you can't be penalized for being a patriot and he's a great Patriot and he's also done an incredible job with tesler and I mean nobody else has a car company started up in the last 30 years that's been successful I don't think so and not only successful but super successful and because he's able to find uh billions and billions and billions of dollars of Fraud and waste and all other things I mean our country is going to be very strong very soon because of a lot of the things that he's done and a lot of the things that I'm doing and uh there's there's no better team but there's no better for what we're doing there's nobody like this and he shouldn't be penalized and when I watched the other day I said I can't believe believe it it should be the opposite people should be going wild and they love the product but because he's uh finding all sorts of terrible things that have taken place against our country they want to penalize them in a economic sense and I just think that's very unfair so I just wanted to make a statement I'm gonna buy one now here's the bad news I'm not allowed to drive because I haven't driven a car in a long time and I love to drive cars but I'm going to have it at the White House and I'm going to let my staff use it I'm going to let people at the place use it and they all are all excited about that I'm not allowed to use it can you believe it okay so that was the endorsement we got from Trump yesterday he had a Model S a cyber Tru all those cars sitting next to him now look the people that are saying this is cringe because the president is endorsing a um a a car company I think is not the right take that's not the right take you know why that's not the right take because take a look at this this is Mr Joe Biden who was supporting a was was this this was a um Jeep Wrangler hybrid in the white house I think this was in 2022 so it's not the right take to be upset that Trump's supporting Elon with the car because because you think it's like crony capitalism I mean Biden did the same thing and if you if you're gonna think that it's cringe for Trump to do it you have to say it's cringe for Biden to do it my take is not that Trump is like like it's cringe because he's supporting Elon or he's he's doing a car like ad presidents have done this before for companies that especially companies that are going to build cars in America which Elon committed to doubling the Tesla output of production in America the reason I think it's cringe is because I think it's kind of this last resort that Tesla is using or elon's using in fact my belief is that I think Elon asked him for it I don't think Trump woke up one day and he was like Hey Elon you want me to do this I think Elon went up to him and he was like dude I'm sacrificing a lot I donated a lot to the campaign like I need an endorsement I need people who like the Democrats hate Elon so much not all Democrats but we're seeing you know the rise of Democrats just just can't despise and boycotting the Tesla Etc um who's going to buy the cars you need the Maga base to buy the car now the Maga base historically has not bought a Tesla Trump doesn't even like EVS he's been on record many times saying he doesn't like like EVs and so this 180 degree flip that we're seeing right now that's why it's cringe to me because like it seems like a desperate attempt to boost Tesla's sales in a world in which doge is obviously isolating a lot of people or elon's political Ambitions are isolating a lot of people from buying the Tesla so it's not it's not it's not cringe cuz he's endorsing a company like you know bunch of administrations have done that it's cringe because I think I think Tesla's struggling with their sales and I think if you're buying the Tesla dip or at least today Tesla momentum right here up 6% of 244 I I really don't think the q1 revenues are going to be good I can't see a single Catalyst energy is not the Catalyst FSD is not really happening yet um margins are going to suck given their 0% APR financing the model Y is ramping up but it's not going to be ramping up enough in my opinion to meaningfully make it dent in q1 now maybe you could argue that sentiment is so bad because the stock is down literally 50% from the highs the problem is what if the stock never deserved to be at 480 right like everyone's like oh well Tesla's down 50% from the high same thing look I have the same consistency when I talk about pounder uh I don't think pter deserved to get to almost a $300 billion do market cap at 125 so when I see the draw down 30% like everyone wants to laugh at pter investors haha it's down 30% in my head I'm like first of all I don't I as a pter bull probably didn't think it made sense to get up there so the draw down makes sense to me uh now if we fall back to $40 I'm like okay you know that's we like all right we have we we had some really serious multiple compression but 125 to 80 it's like it's just not that big of a deal uh 480 to 230 is a pretty aggressive deal but did it deserve to get to 480 in the first place I think is the question I mean and by the way it's not just Tesla the S&P 500 lost its entire Trump bump it went from 550 to 6200 on uh on from election day to February I think what 12th around that mid-February time we we were at we were at those levels we're right back to where we were on November 5th or Bel before November 5th so from that perspective I just think buying the Tesla dip right here if you're buying it you got to be buying it long term because I don't think q1 there some massive Catalyst unless you know Elon announces something that no one's thinking about which which he could right Tesla has been known to do that sometimes they're a tech company they can find different ways to be creative but this one's going to be a little tough Robin right here is up 7% in the pre-markets the CPI bump is lasting at at least right now we'll see if it opens with that same bump if you're just joining we got 2.8 on the headline versus 2.9 expected 3.1 on the core versus 3.2 expected so CPI came in uh pretty nice which is what the market wanted to to see um if you're buying at 320 you should be buying now nothing has changed I would agree with this just from a pure by the dip perspective but I do think one thing has changed and the one thing that has changed which is what uh Dan Ives talked about yesterday well let's listen to him is um that the extent by which Elon has dedicated his time to Doge has shocked everybody has has surprised everybody no one understood it was going to be this aggressive of a uh of a commitment and neither did Dan IES now he's reiterating his 550 price Target he believes longterm Tesla will be fine which I agree with as well it's just in the short term it's a question of how easy it'll be for Tesla to uh maintain these levels called it a t pounder last night you said your bullish view was unchanged there are a lot of questions about the stock it's been down seven straight weeks why' you feel compelled to come out and defend it not once but twice yeah I mean well first I mean we've been talking vors you know all around the world on Tesla and is like is this a moment that basically the bull thesis basically gets thrown out because of some of the brand issues the distractions and our view is when things are great okay anyone could be there but when things are tough moments like this I think that's where we've been able to guide Tesla investors over the decade right in terms of these moments I don't believe that this is really a Black Swan event for Tesla in terms of the brand issues in terms of something that could really deteriorate the medium and long-term Outlook but no doubt we've talked about it it's a moment of truth from us no one including ourselves expected he'd be this involved in Doge this involved in Trump Administration and it's really cascaded and I think this is a pivotal moment for him explain to me how you go from your bullish view unchange those are your words yep last night to this morning where you put out a note ahead of our appearance where you call it a Moment of Truth what happened from last night to this morning where you didn't have that perspective until this morning yeah how does this happen I I I think from our perspective it's it it's more hearing musk hearing from investors around the world and it's basically saying the medium longterm case for test I continue view two trillion I may I believe when it comes to physical AI autonomous robotics they're they're actually the best position coming in the world but with that said to hear musk continue to talk and and again on social media as well it's really us trying to explain like look this is the time very similar as we saw during Twitter very similar as we saw even called a year and a half ago this is the time to lead it's a time to be CEO because I think patience is wearing thin among investors and it was really to communicate those thoughts at I think a pivotal time for the stock the reason why the stock is down is seems to be a Confluence of events obviously his presence within the administration as Clos he as he has become he's become a much more polarizing figure politically but the facts are the facts and the facts are that sales are not good and they haven't been good is any I mean are you taking that into consideration sales in China down for the past five consecutive months right down 49% in February the lowest monthly figure since July of 2022 Us sales down again last month down 75% in Europe 65% in Australia this has become more of a headline story to an actual fundamental breakdown somewhere yeah but let's also talk about what's ahead in other words the refresh from a model y perspective when you look at a lot of the refreshes that happen Europe in China in the US you got the unsupervised FSD and Austin I continue to believe 90% of the value going forward is going to be autonomous is going to be robotics when it comes to Optimus and I believe from a demand perspective especially when it comes to FSD 15% of Tes owners have FSD that's what we estimate as that goes to 40 50% I mean numbers basically triple in terms of from an EPS perspective as that plays out and look I get it this is a Time have we been dead wrong this year in Tesla of course it's been disaster call but for 25 years I have our best calls are ultimately in times like this that I believe as you navigate the noise this will be not just a one trillion but two trillion but it comes down to musk needs to balance durge Tesla's CEO that's something where I think the Clock Struck midnight so even Dan who's one of the most bullish Tesla Bulls Out There is saying hey uh we didn't expect elon's commitment to Doge to be as aggressive as it's been and as a result uh you're having the volatility that we're having in Tesla right now so look long term I think the thesis the thesis is well intact when it comes to um FSD and Robotics it's just shortterm based on whatever entry price you want to get there may be better opportunities than right now if q1 really sucks and it just depends on what the narrative is like going into q1 rocket lab real quick we got a piece of news right here they are uh partnering with Airbus to power nextg one web constallation for udat Rocket lab will provide 200 solar P panels inclusive of carbon comp composite panel substrate solar cells and photoal take assemblies if I'm not wrong and correct me in the chat I believe I believe Rock laab diluted by $500 million yesterday they did an at the money uh an at the market offering and I thought I was on the plane when I saw that news and I thought rocket lab was going to tank uh rocket laab didn't tank I mean they were fine stocks up right now pretty nicely on CPI and off that Airbus contract uh they're up eight% right here they were up 4% yesterday so that was actually really encouraging news to me seeing a $500 million offering and Rocket lab still didn't tank to me means that the street is at least over looking uh any level of dilution because they think their potential especially around Neutron is just so strong I remember they diluted I think a year and a half of BU they were down like 20% and that's when the stock was like close to four bucks I think they went down to 330 or something um so it's totally different it's a totally different type of environment now and the market is getting a lot more excited for the potential of this company yeah they're using the money to acquire companies correct they were using that 500 million to take some Equity Stak so rocket right here up 7.4% we'll see if we can get back into that $20 range but they've been depressed ever since the market pivot that we had a couple of weeks ago uh from about 30 bucks back down to 19 Nvidia is up 4% Delta so again the Delta headline that we talked about in the market close a couple days ago was that they are lowering their consumer guidance by 50% for q1 all the airlines tanked on this Delta had one of its worst days in five years yesterday down 8% I don't think that's something you ignore especially when the index for airline fairs went down in the CPI report we got this morning probably because people people aren't traveling so much some people said people are afraid of traveling because of all the different plane crashes that we're seeing and I can't blame them I mean we are seeing a lot more videos and just headlines of planes like like not Landing properly and stuff so so I think there is some fear but I don't think there's that much fear that people are just not traveling to the extent that the CPI reading is basically showing that they're not traveling because the only reason Airline fairs would go down is because airline companies are reducing their prices in order to entice demand and that demand seems to be coming off a little bit so that could be a leading signal for lack of cruises lack of vacations lack of Tourism Etc and that's something I think we all have to pay attention to as we uh kind of try to assess what's going on in the context of of the consumer but um but we're going to see that was Delta's guideline we'll see what the other airlines say over the coming weeks as they have their q1 earnings as well uh by the way this piece of news was pretty interesting to me yesterday remember that uh United Auto Workers Union president um the guy during the Auto Workers strike you probably saw his face a lot he was uh supporting Biden for the election uh he's backing Trump's tariffs this news yesterday was very interesting he's arguing that levies will force companies to reinvest in the US manufacturing and reverse Decades of bad trade deals in his words corporations have been a Non-Stop race of the bottom slashing American jobs while chasing cheaper labor abroad so you do have some people that you would think that were very hostile against Trump and the administration and and in support of Biden that are actually for the tariffs now again the question is going to be how meaningful are the tariffs in relation to the economic meltdown that we're seeing at least in the stock market but you do have some people crossing the island saying actually we like Trump pursuing tariffs here's someone who thinks the tariffs are absolutely a disaster here's the professor we got about five minutes until the Market opens Ukraine if they hadn't come up I think we would have had another thousand Point drop dat today I mean it's clearly this disruptive uh destructive if I if I should say so up and down uh trade policy that has uh really worried the market uh and SED uncertainty among consumers and businesses um and uh you know I I I hope that the Trump team sees what uh the stock market any in fact some early polling of some of the of this impact has so that this policy can be rationalized um because I think it is by far the major cause of the 10% decline that we've had over the last six weeks Professor let's just let's just entertain an issue here what if the White House and the president as you say don't care as much about the stock market right now as people thought that they might and that policy and getting their policies through are more important than whatever the stock market does I ask you this question because the press secretary at the White House today during the briefing was asked about the selloff in which she said quote we're in a period of economic transition after the mess created by Joe Biden also bring it up because the treasury secretary himself told this network just last week There's No Trump put it seems like they're telegraphing to investors that the economy is going to get worse before it gets better and the stock market may go down as a result and so be it well I mean this makes no sense to me economically and and no sense politically I mean I mean so what are we saying we're going to bring a 100,000 manufacturing jobs back to the United States and tank the stock market by 20 trillion do in the meantime uh you think the people in Florida living off you know the accumulated wealth that they've done in the last 10 years are going to be all excited about you know some plant that uh Trump saves in Eerie Pennsylvania for 300 jobs or 500 jobs by the way producing something that they could have brought cheaper without the tariffs beforehand I mean it just doesn't make sense I hear it but then I think of the Poli I of it and I I think of the economics of it and uh it just doesn't wash uh yeah we do you know I mean there are un unfair Trade Practices we want to normalize some of these but this this Grand Vision the the cost parody is just nowhere near there and the political parody does not speak anywhere in favor of the Republicans uh or for the American public uh don't forget almost half the how many people agree with Jeremy how many people agree that tariffs from a political perspective make no sense to save the manufacturing jobs in the United States American public owns stock if not directly indirectly through their you know 401ks through their IRAs through their Pension funds you have 180 million 150 million people there so you know we're going to bring some manufacturing back to the US how many jobs is that less than one tenen of 1% so they're going to get a little higher pay than they would otherwise where is where's the politics there Scott I don't see it maybe maybe someone can tell me I mean you got the professor who was pretty damn annoyed with these Trump policies the flip-flopping on tariffs back and forth I mean literally at 10 a.m. yesterday Trump tweeted that uh Canada would have 50% tariffs by about 350 he then tweeted we're going to take away the 50% tariffs uh that originally were 25% he was increasing them to 50% so obviously there's been a lot of flip-flopping I can understand the anger that he has from a political perspective to be able to bring back jobs to the United States he doesn't believe in that whole short-term pain for long-term gain then you've got Trump saying well tariffs are going to be the biggest thing to transform the country we're going to bring all the jobs back I mean you've got this Grand Vision from Trump versus the short-term pain of the stock market and they're at odds with each other right now and I guess we're going to have to see how this fully ends up playing out over the coming months all right folks here we go Wednesday March 12th 9:30 a.m. the stock market is once again open we are back to the little bell here [Music] today the little bell brought us a lot of green back in early February so hopefully hopefully it's back to that wake your ass up Tesla opens up 6.5% 245 on Tesla up 6.5 the S&P 500's up 1.08% smci is up 7.5% wow Delta goes red look at that Delta goes red huh Delta that's that's an interesting one it's like slightly green right now but it just opened red Nvidia is up 5.4% that's a big open for NVIDIA Delta is going back to being red grab is up 2.2% uh grab did not deserve to be $4 dollar three days ago but then again a lot of these stocks did not deserve to get to these levels so grab having a little bit of a rebound right up 2% tko's up 1.2% Robin's up 6.38% Robin at 3866 just below that $39 level paler up 6.2% as well 8309 Bitcoin just below 84 it hit 84.5 this morning on the CPI report now at 83.4 so down about a th000 bucks from that level meta 630 that's up 4% Google's up 2% 166 Google was almost at 159 two days ago at 161 so Google did get hit meta right here again at 630 blocks up 1.4% targets up 48% Costco which was down 8% last Monday is up 1% Walmart's up 1.4 S&P 500 up 1.2 Tesla holding on to its green holding on to its green at 248 actually holding on to its green uh everyone in the chat on the poll 55% of you said yes you trust the Green from the CPI uh about a minute into the market open it seems like that green is holding up we got a long day to go but let's see how this plays out SOI trying to make it way back to 12 bucks that's up 6.2% Apple's down in interesting you would think Apple would rally with the market no Apple's getting sold off um Apple below 200 actually gets a little interesting but Apple at 219 uh it is down from that 245 level it was at a couple of weeks ago Southwest is up JetBlue is up United Airlines is up Oracle is up Oracle had of great earnings didn't really pump on those earnings I think they were down about 6% yesterday they were up about 2% today Archer risk on asset that's up 8% wow Verizon Co AA and Hershey's is down all the value plays that were the only sea of green that we could find on Monday along with Nike are red where's Celsius Celsius I think it should be green Celsius is red that's why is Celsius being put in the bucket of Verizon and Hershey's like I'm so Celsius is not a value St it's a growth stock that is so weird that it's down on a day like this when CPI came in better than expected but it was green two days ago that's really weird realy income that one's down Target is down Burk are halfway let's see if I think Apple's probably taking that down it's slightly up okay so the other ones are keeping it up up. 21% rocket Labs up 6.4 Tesla up 6.7 we got to see if Tesla can hold these levels it was at 215 a couple days ago so even if it closes at 230 today or 235 that would still be a big win from the levels of a couple days ago Nvidia it's first 5% day and I think a couple of weeks if I'm not wrong maybe it was a couple of maybe it was only one week but it's been a while I think since we've seen up 5.5% % on Nvidia now it has to hold it throughout the end of the day grabs up 2% S&P 500 again up 1.2 where is the NASDAQ The Q's are up 2% that's nice to see the q's up 2% meta Google Amazon Nvidia Tesla all are green apples the only Mac 7 that's red the only ma seven that's red Celsius is a Pepsi proxy play I agree and Pepsi is a value stock I guess so that's why it could be going red but Celsius is growing way more than Pepsi like it's still a growth name right Pepsi right here down 3% or as celsi's completely lost all of its growth I actually don't know their year-over-year growth rate but I feel like it's still a double digits I don't think they're growing at like 3% like Pepsi um but I guess that's how the market is is is is thinking of it Tesla still holding on to 248 dude it's trying to get to 249 like it's actually not giving it up which is pretty damn incredible same thing with paler and Robin Robin had back to 39 up 7.2% Robin it's holding on as well pter right here 84 up 7 8% I mean these are pretty aggressive days I know they've been sold off but still we haven't had seven to eight% days on a lot of these names even PayPal's up 2% right here so it's nice to see vix is yeah the vix is definitely getting hit vix is indeed down I'm going to take a look at my portfolio because I haven't yet um yeah I'm up uh $314 15.15 you guys can put in the chat how much you're up today if you want want but uh Monday was down six figures so we're covering a little bit of those six figures I mean it's a pretty it's a pretty nice day I still don't trust it yet it's really hard to be like well everything's okay especially especially because Nvidia right here wow up 6% um what's his name Trump doesn't really want this he wants inflation to not inflation he wants bond yields to come down and right now the 10e spiking because people are selling it to buy stocks like he he I I don't know dude I don't think he's he loves seeing the stock market go up I think and he said this numerous times he's literally said like we are not focused on the stock market we are focused on interest rates the stock market mooning is not good for interest rates coming down there's no world in which that makes sense unless inflation dramatically takes a decline which you know today's reading was good but it wasn't like oh my God inflation's falling off a cliff like that's just not happening yet but it was a decrease month over month sequentially which is what we needed because we've had five if I'm not wrong consecutive increases from September so we really needed a a u-turn on the inflation story at least at least to to the starting of a U-turn and maybe today was the beginning of of starting a U-turn low CPI is good for potential rate Cuts yeah but but but low CPI we've got to get closer to 2% 2.8 I still think is too aggressive for the FED to even think of a cut I thought the thesis was hey the FED gets scared there's going to be a recession they'll get a cut not that cpis I mean if look if by May we're still at 2.6 2.7 I don't know if the fed's that aggressive to be like all right it's time to cut especially if if the labor Market's holding itself I mean literally [ __ ] what's his name j JP said his favorite his favorite uh fed share of all time is Paul voker Paul voker didn't cut that easily Paul vuler was very headfast on making sure inflation was definitely gone and I think Trump's trying to really get Jal to feel the pressure but I don't know if the CPR report's going to do it Tesla right here we did touch 249 for about a second and then we got hit um we're going to have to see if we get there lower the lower than lowering the tenure rate is the secondary objective the primary is to push the FED to cut faster and faster yes but remember the only way the FED Cuts outside of inflation coming down meaningfully is if the tenure goes down because the markets or at least the bond market has to price in a recession which is why they would buy bonds you don't buy bonds unless you think there's going to be some massive economic at least Slowdown and that I believe is what the Trump Administration was getting excited about over the past two weeks because it was going to force JP's hand but with this CPI report and with stocks doing well it might not be the case and if it's not the case I think Trump I mean there's a world where Trump completely does a 180 on his tariff stance if he doesn't get the desired outcome which is rates coming down because then tariffs are just going to be fully inflationary like if rates don't come down and we still have tariffs you know and it's not really bringing back that many jobs like like it's just not going to be having any of the benefits he wants the tradeoff with tariffs is that we get rates to come down which is ultimately what he cares about but if that doesn't happen I mean really what's the point of tariffs at that point so it's going to be a really interesting scenario over the next coming months to see what happens apple is about to go green there it goes Apple goes green so Apple finally catching up with the rest of the market elf is red today TLT is red all the stocks that were green a couple days ago end phas as well they're red everything that uh grinder is up 3% Big Bear is up 8% trade desk is up 2% HS is up 6% clean Sparks up 4% where is mstr that should be up probably 5 to 6% that one is up 2% today it was up up I think it was up 7% yesterday so that's at 265 up from about 230 and then Tesla looks like it wants 250 Tesla looks like it wants 250 my average on Nvidia is 122.5 122.5 um let me check some of the resistance levels on Tesla pter and Hood so Tesla I think it it looks like it wants 250 Tesla right here 24938 50 bucks how much do we have to buy to get above that 250 has oh that's nothing that's 50,000 shares I think we'll crack 250 yeah it looks like we're going to crack 2 250 is not going to be hard this also looks like a little a little bit of a relief rally on Tesla given how much pain it's been through also I mean they did there you go there's 250 uh Trump did give them a really big endorsement yesterday I mean that's better than Kim Kardashian endorsing Tesla right so that was nice to see hoodie is let me check resistance for 40 on Hood if Tesla's getting to 250 I think Hood could get to 40 Robin Hood at 40 resistance is 177,000 shares yeah that's nothing and then pound here which has kind of broke through pretty much every major level today 84 to get to 85 on pound here we need um yeah 10,000 shares no 67,000 67,000 shares and then for NVIDIA we are currently at 116 just quickly looking to 117 117 would be uh about 60,000 shares as well all of these names are holding on bro I mean they're really holding on Rocket lab up 6% S&P up 1.3 Tesla's up almost 9% smci up seven Nvidia up seven when's the last time we saw 7% on Nvidia it's been a while since that one and then paler as well up 8% it's been a while since we've seen that as well um that's green that's green green Green that's not too bad why is Google bearish I think Google's a buy right now I think Google's sheep uh I know it's only up 1% I I look I think I think the street is still afraid of this whole llm search thing which by the way is crazy because you know what's being discounted for Google wh Mo wh MO we talk about Robo taxes all the time wh's officially launching in Silicon Valley and they're already in Austin I mean wh they're doing 200,000 paid rides a week weo is killing it bro I've never been in a weo So eventually I want to try it out and see what it looks like but wh's expanding aggressively uh and I I think the Market's completely discounting weo Google owns a majority of staking them but uh I think Google's one of the easiest Mac SS to buy right now I think in a year from now Google's probably not going to be stuck at 167 now granted I still like Nvidia more just for the growth but Nvidia if you're worried about the cyclicality Google just feel safer uh and I don't think llms are going to destroy the search business Celsius down 3% birkar is officially down 1% some of the value plays are getting hit there S&P is uh at 1% Tesla going for 251 baby look at that we hit 251 we hit 25169 there you go up 9% right there on Tesla um are you buying Venture Global I'm not uh I don't know enough about them but I know Chris posted that the Insiders bought a ton of venture Global yesterday I think that's why it was up 11% um again this is in natural gas if you care about that the Insiders bought they bought 500,000 shares yesterday two insiders bought 500,000 shares of VG so again I would look into the company I think Chris and Matt did a pod on this on on cash flow Chronicles and you can listen to them talk about it in depth I really don't know much about the company so I haven't taken a position but look when insiders buy it tends to be you know for one reason so I mean if they're buying they are bullish but that probably can't be the only reason you get excited for for VG um is Burk Shar spending their cash you know that's a good question a lot of people thought yesterday birkar was calling a bottom potentially they have no evidence for this this was just a rumor floating around and burar was to buy how ironic would would it be if birkar gets in in Tesla at a $800 billion market cap and Buffett's like yeah we miss Tesla but it's probably going to 10 trillion so we're gonna I mean that I don't think that's ever gonna happen but it would be crazy if it was but no I don't know maybe birkar is buying but what would they buy right what has gotten cheap enough for Burk Shar to be excited you know I okay put put your top three stocks in the chat that you think Burk Shar would buy that have gotten ridiculously oversold um I I can name uh PayPal I think that's I think that's such an obvious I mean they're buying back at this point almost 12% of the company I don't know why bur PayPal's not dying I feel like PayPal I mean I think burar could easily take a strategic stake in PayPal I think that's obvious another one in my opinion is Google but again birkar is not GNA buy Tech so maybe I shouldn't say that one um yeah they're not gonna buy Tech so that's probably the wrong one newbank I know they trimmed their new bank position but new bank has gotten significantly lower than where it was at at the highs I feel like if they re-entered new bank and kind of double dipped here that wouldn't be crazy um and then another one believe it or not I think is Uber now I know the threat of Tesla FSD is out there I get it but if you think Tesla has some weakness shortterm in in in in terms of scaling FSD Uber's still ridiculously cheap if you look at it on a price free cash flow basis it's cheaper it's not as cheap as it was at 64 or 60 or 58 I think it got to the bottom in December but it's still cheap they just have a narrative issue qualitatively around FSD um but PayPal is my number one dude I and and Buffett loves financials like he loves financials so I really don't know why they wouldn't get excited about that dominoes I think they already have a little bit of dominoes AMD they don't do semis so they wouldn't do semis they wouldn't do Tesla oxy I mean at this point he's just going to buy out the whole company if he does oxy and I mean oil prices have fallen dramatically so maybe this is the right time to get interested in oil they're not going to do Nvidia they're not going to do Sofi they're not going to do meta like I think real realistically I really think PayPal is not a crazy I mean you've got the BuyBacks you have the growth you have some level of product Innovation and you've got a cheap stock it's not going to go to like 150 overnight but I think PayPal to like 90 bucks in the next year or two years like even if it takes a couple years for it to get back to 90 or even like 85 I think I think this is one of those safe plays that Buffett would like especially because he loves the BuyBacks why not meta well they just don't do Tech right they don't they just don't do Tech so so Dollar General yeah Dollar General got updated or upgraded the other day I forgot the firm that upgraded them 7787 um was it JP Morgan they put out like a $90 price Target I think on DG um but yeah they did get upgraded I could see that happening but if there if you think a recessions happening then oh Bernstein Bernstein said 90 barnstein said uh gross margins are getting better and they're they're turning around their stores and reinvesting in their stores the problem is if we have a recession and we have massive tariffs on China I feel like Dollar General gets hit with Walmart right like I don't I don't know if those are easily able to withstand that um but my pick is Paypal dude I really do think it would be PayPal but he's probably not going to buy PayPal because if he was going to buy it he would have bought it by now Robin at 3914 that's up 7.6% micr Strat is up 1.7 robino trying to get to 40 uh there's only 70,000 shares separating it from 40 so there's shot now in terms of Robin uh we didn't talk about the February metrics so we got the February metrics yesterday um grab yeah I mean if he really wanted International exposure I think grab is I mean gra D grab got to four dollars the other it just got stupid at some point but uh I wouldn't hate if he took a they can grab uh the the the robin metrics were actually really good the only problem is here um I me these were amazing metrics right I posted on Twitter 150,000 new accounts 4.8 billion net deposits 8.7 billion margin bounces like just amazing metrics the only problem is is I think March is going to be weaker than February so January and February really good robinett is getting set up to do at least 700 million in revenue for q1 if not closer to 850 and if they have a decent March I think they could crack 900 million again uh it really depends on crypto volumes but all these were slightly down month over month which is what we expected February had the least amount of trading days so they still put up really good numbers even though there were only I think 15 or 17 trading days versus the 23 trading days but uh March might not be the best so although I think Robin going to have a good q1 if March doesn't have a rebound and we're already almost halfway done through March those metrics in March might not be as good and then q1 might not be as amazing so my take on robinet is yes it's cheap right now if they can not even if they if because they they'll put up the growth if the market allows them to put up the growth if the market AKA crypto the S&P 500 Etc keep oscillating back and forth because of this tariff volatility Rob just might not be able to put up the astronomical growth they put up in 2024 so that's my only concern with hood right now but I'm holding my options I'm adding to my spreads I'm keeping my spreads from last year I'm gonna have to sell the stock to pay some taxes I'm gonna have to sell at least a thousand shares to be able to pay the taxes uh I decided to sell the shares versus the spreads because the spreads are a 5x for me if Hood stays above 20 by January 2026 I think it's pretty obvious Hood will be above 20 by January 2026 if not then you know we've got a different issue um but outside of that like I think I think Hood should be fine I just don't know if we easily run back to 65 it really depends on the broader Market uh Kathy did sell out of Sofi and she bought Hood pounder and Tesla I didn't understand her pounder buy because she was selling pounder at these levels three weeks ago so I was really confused why she bought pounder like that like if she was selling at this level I don't know why she's buying in right now uh Tesla I understand why she's buying Robin it she hasn't bought robinett in over seven months so she bought robinet for the first time in a while about 300,000 shares and she sold about six million shares of sof Sofi right here up 4.4% uh completely liquidated her Sofi position I don't understand why she sold Sofi either it made no sense to me no sense not at these levels but um yeah she liquidated Sofi are we down is the market going down where's the S&P the S&P is still green we're holding on 7% but there's a nice red candle right there what time is it 950 all right kind of right on time nvidia's down from up 7% to up 5.8 Delta is actually down 3% today this one is worrying me I'm not going to lie the Delta guidance is really concerning me just in terms of what it means for the state of the consumer I don't think we can ignore that as easily um but we need a little bit more confirmation from some of these other companies that report for q1 guidance but the Delta one was the first Domino to say all right maybe the consumer is not as good Nvidia right here up 5.8% Lou Lemon is up a little bit crisper is up a little bit pound's up a little bit so we got red candles across the board from the highs we had the highs at what exact time 8442 on pound that was at 9:42 so about eight minutes ago eight minutes ago everything hit the very very top at least so far for the day Robin it as well falling right here trying to get some green candles but we are going slightly red across the board did Trump just say something about tffs hold on hold on hold on oh my god dude is it because of what he said did he say something I don't see a new post okay I don't see a new post not yet not yet his last post was eight hours ago by the way the death ceiling bill passed through the house now we need to pass through the senate in order to not get a shutdown in a couple days so hopefully that happens um yeah he didn't tweet anything yet I don't see any tweet okay good I don't see any tweet yet just waiting for another another freaking tariff tweet Canada did get rid of 25% of their tariffs remember how they said they were going to put 25% tariffs on the electricity to Mexico or not Mexico to Michigan New York and uh and freaking um Minnesota I think they they they reversed that stance yesterday night um which was nice to see but still um you know the the trade war between the United States and Canada continues to be aggressive Roba 3871 Sofi right there 1180 currently on the day um we have PPI tomorrow as well yes we still have PPI so that's going to be really important and then after that uh I think we have another jobs report on Thursday and we're going to see yes they are negotiating tomorrow uh lutnick is going to be meeting with uh the Canadian officials tomorrow and they're going to be doing some further negotiation which to me means that we're going to get a report I mean we're going to get a uh we're going to get something past that is productive like I really don't think Trump wants to put 50% tariffs on Canada I hope not uh which again just goes back to this whole idea of like he's not serious about the tariffs but the market doesn't know exactly when to react or not to react when it comes to the viability of these tariffs um do you know what the pter teaser about March 13th is all about yes we actually got confirmation about that yesterday I'm happy you bring that up uh AIP con aon's happening tomorrow so super cool for paler their sixth AIP con uh they announced a bunch of new customers hinin I didn't know hinin was using paler I'm more of a Corona like guy but hinin is using pter Walgreens uh R1 RCM racetrack rip cord and more there's going to be over a hundred organizations that are going to be there it's going to be live streamed on Thursday and you got a bunch of other customers andril AT&T L3 Harris Delta um Red Cat which is the drone company Wendy's KKR lenar Home Building Company twg a lot of these names will be there for for pounder by the way I'm not a Corona like guy I was kidding I don't even I think I've drank a Corona Light once in my life I'm a smernoff ice guy I know a lot of you guys are gonna clown me for that but I'm a smernoff ice people don't give smernoff ice enough credit okay smof ice is the perfect drink to get a little buzzed and it tastes like soda but other other than that I can't you know one beer I do like Guinness I had Guinness beer before Guinness beer Guinness beer I like that I've had that before and uh I don't know I I like the taste I have it's I think it's been a couple years since I had it but the one time I did have it I liked it smof ice bro or Mike's Hard Lemonade like come on bro people try to hate on it are you still in high school no but like smof is smof ice dude it's good does anyone like hinin it's a is that that a German brand right it's a German you know one time when I did go to Germany hopefully I'll be back in Germany in uh in the summer but uh I went to Germany in 2016 when I was traveling on the USA debate team and we had the world championships in studart uh at the freaking airport at 6:30 a.m. the Bars were open and people were drinking and I was like what is going on bro why are like this is like so the Germans you guys drink you guys definitely enjoy drinking it's it's from the Netherlands it's dutch okay okay never mind then I thought it was Germany it's a Dutch brand okay wait hold on what's the what's the bigger what's the main German brand for for for beer what's like the go-to German beer if it's not hinin I really thought it was hinin bro I thought it was hinin um Beck okay I've never seen beex before okay I don't know any of the but Budweiser Budweiser is German that's not German is it no that's American right is it I don't know I should know this dude my dad had a liquor store growing up I should know some of this stuff but I don't all right Marcus are still getting hit I mean I shouldn't say we're getting hit we're green nvidia's up six% but I think everyone's a little afraid if it can hold it and it's holding it right now kind of uh Delta's puking down 3% S&P was up 1.2 now that's up6 again trying to hold it up from 552 but still down okay a lot of the names you guys are saying in the chat I cannot say them because I have no idea how to pronounce them but I'll take your word for it um pauler Paul liner okay well when I go to Germany in the uh in the summer you guys have to introduce me to some of these beers or drinks but the Germans definitely drink dude when I was at that airport I was like holy crap dude 7:30 or 6:30 and there was a lot of people at the bar too bro there was people were drinking drinking I was like damn I didn't know you guys drink this much Sofi up three there's a nice red candle right there 1220 to 1165 Robin it as well 3967 to 38 a lot of these dips I think micr Shad just went red you just got to be careful with this stuff dude you just got to be careful because right now Bitcoin from 84 5 to 826 I mean it's the same story over and over again and until that story reverses meaningfully we're going to have to see if these dips actually actually end up getting bought Budweiser got sold along with anheiser bush to a German company for your ah okay that makes more sense that makes more sense how much do you believe the cpri report I mean I don't think I've ever doubted CPI well people have doubted from the BLS has been the jobs numbers more than anything I don't think people ever actually really doubted CPI I mean look people doubt CPI because they don't think the fed's tracking the metrics as well so they look at something like true flation which is a better indicator of it but as much as I love true inflation the fed's never going to look at true inflation and by the way true inflation came in at 1.32% down from 1.4 so like you know like the fed's just never going to look at true inflation they're going to look at what the BLS says the BLS unless they change their methodology is always going to have CPI basically 70% above what true inflation says and so uh the reason true true flation is down today is because CPI came down on the headline and on the core so true flation definitely came down right because uh if if if the if the fed's lagging data is down then true inflation should be down but the fed's going to really need to see below 2.5 I think to get to get very excited and we're not seeing it right now uh and regardless if if you think CPI is rigged or not I mean that's the number right that's the number the FED car has been they're not going to change that number anytime soon so we kind of have to deal with IT Crowd Strike Back above 340 this one took a nasty hit a couple days ago around 315 so that one's at least getting a little bit of love Uber's down expand energy is up clean spark is basically flat Verizon wow down 5% today this is the problem with rotating into value stocks because once growth comes back value takes a nasty beating now granted if growth gets beat up later throughout the day maybe Verizon reverses but um if you're looking for safety that safety can get demolished if the market gets excited about being back into growth and a good cpri report can get the market a little bit excited about that brom's up 4% again they had a really good earnings they're up from 175 let's look at the rest of the semis uh we did have some semi news today wow everything's green asml broadcom TSM Marvell arm lamb research Dell here's the semi news that we had this morning that was actually pretty good and it's about forming a um a a JV group to to uh suchin thank you for being in the chat thanks for the well wishes I'm feeling a lot better now uh for for Intel foundaries to be run by broadcom AMD and tsmc so TSM Taiwan semi they've announced or they proposed a joint venture to Nvidia AMD broadcom and Qualcomm to take stakes in nvidia's US Foundry operations with TSM holding no more than 50% this is part of that 100 billion doll us announcement that uh they announced with Trump and talks are currently in early stages but some Intel executives reuter is reporting is actually resisting this partnership together um I think this would be a cool partnership I think this would give Intel some momentum after a couple months of really not having any momentum and it would give a controlling stake Intel right here up 6% to the bigger tech companies in the semiconductor space that could probably retransform Intel into producing American ships in a more sophisticated way now granted Intel probably wants to compete with them they don't want to give up control of ownership to these guys but that is one thing that we might see with with tsmc and it's it's yeah it's more bullish for NVIDIA it's more bullish forame video uh the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 BBS hold on the Bank of Canada was scheduled to cut rates today didn't they just cut rates I felt like they cut two weeks ago am I wrong on this was this like a month ago why do I feel like the Bank of Canada cut uh uh I I guess well they they definitely cut last time I don't know if it was a month ago or a couple weeks ago but yeah Bank of Canada cut to 2.75% the United States is at 4.5% so we are definitely above Canada they cut by 25 bips um which is good the United States is one of the only ones that's not really cutting aggressively oh that was England you're right that was England that was England that was England Japan raised by 25 bips two weeks ago England England is the one that uh that cut okay so so so we're getting cuts across the entire world uh the US is left but I don't know how easily JP's going to be convinced especially with this CPI report to to want to cut S&P is up 0.5 grabs getting hit down 1.2 grabs down is new bank down as well new bank is slightly up and then Mardo Libre is also slightly up so the news on graph today was that go to their their competitor uh they said on an earnings call they would be likely to merge with gra not likely to merge they they said they're open to the possibility emerging with grab which I think is good news um but I mean we have to see how the markets interpret that goto did also post their first ebit a profitable quarter maybe that's why grabs down because one of their competitors had a good quarter um but they did say hey we're open to entertaining acquisition discussions I think they've already started those discussions I think that's why grab a six billion in cash that they haven't employed yet um but I guess over the coming months we're going to see if that news actually goes anywhere uh Canada cut rates due to tariffs well that's definitely yeah I could see that as a catalyst I mean if tariffs are going to make things a lot more expensive they probably need to stimulate the economy from that perspective so that does make sense to me now will the US follow I guess we're going to see but uh it makes sense that Canada would would take advantage of that but then again Canada also hasn't really had the impact tariffs because they're not fully live yet and the tariffs they were going to uh retaliatory tariffs they were going to put on yesterday they canceled those by by the end of the day so we have to see how aggressive it ends up uh ends up becoming let's get an update right here from CNBC and then we will keep going from there stakes in a joint venture to operate Intel's factories Taiwan semi reportedly proposing to run the operations of Intel's Foundry division which makes chips for customers but it wouldn't know more than 50% those shares up about 6% right now Morgan Stanley cutting its price Target on Apple to $252 a share from 275 saying the delayed AI Siri update means Apple will have fewer features to fuel iPhone upgrade rates those shares about flat right now and Tesla shares trying to rebound for a second day oh there you go up 7.3% very much rebounding uh but still on Pace for losses on the week and hovering right around 50% off of their 52 two we highs meantime as we said stocks trying to rebound after we fell into correction tour yesterday on yesterday's trade Mike what are you watching and are there um either positioning flows or sentiment metrics that are driving the conversation right now they've been in the neighborhood for a few days of good enough usually to get an oversold bounce but not too much more compelling than that I think the CPI number which was a bit lighter than anticipated uh was at least one fewer thing piled up on the pile of negatives and it it cleared the way for at least a reflex rally attempt um it seems as if the Market's acting like the Urgent selling has dried up down at these levels you get down to a 10% uh pullback 10% correction and it's at least a moment to stop and say if it's going to get much worse than this very soon you probably have to see a little more tangible evidence of outright economic weakness of of financial conditions tightening a lot more elsewhere credit's not really uh acting up too much so I think that's the situation we're in I'll I'll Channel uh the late great AR cashion which he used to say after you've had one of these sharp gut checks it's like a cardiac event and what the person who's experienced it does is they're constantly checking their pulse they're constantly sort of aware of all the little micro uh sensitivities that you might have and that's where we are right now so I think the Gnomes that I look at say 5625 on the S&P could be significant it's one of the way points that you would want to hit and close above that and say okay maybe that means uh that in fact wow all the airlines are getting hit United's down as well I didn't even notice that so so uh Delta took a hit United's taking a hit of 5% Southwest is down 2% and then American Airlines is down 3.62 I it's it's I don't know it's kind of hard for Tech to be green and that's why we're seeing a little bit of a of a well not a little bit but definitely stronger red candles across Tech while some of these consumer names are are turning red even on a good CPI you can have a fuller balance every any initial rally is going to be suspect at this point and obviously it's going to be headline dependent but Leslie I'll say it again if this was all and mostly about tariffs every day different stocks would be leading us down it's just not that it's just not like GM and Ford going down every day uh it's obviously one of the things that's that's Weighing on the macro Outlook but it's not necessarily just that well it's all related to this unwind which we'll go into greater detail uh later in the hour but it's this idea that was a crowding effect into certain names things that were SP were seen as beneficiaries really of the Trump trade and then the reversal of that when the headlines went out of favor when there were filings that revealed that a lot of funds were in the same positions to a similar magnitude leverage was high everybody sold out and then you kind of had this rush for the exit over the course of a few days now the question is whether uh you know that capitulation is is done if there's more wood to chop there gross Leverage is still pretty high uh some of that could be just the dynamic by which they calculate it relative to kind of what equities have done how people have sold out of their positions and how people have taken on additional short exposure in light of all the uncertainty by the way the losers right here we're talking about on the Dow and even the S&P it's the defensive stuff so yes the indexes look like they've just like dis yeah exactly they did that balance is dissipated yesterday it was kind of Mag seven growthy hard hit stuff that was rallying if you could put together two days it ratifies the idea that okay that for selling momentum Stampede out maybe has has has Abad to some degree so we'll see if that works all right uh fresh inflation data coming in better than expected this morning as we were mentioning Steve lean okay so [Music] um uh this is really interesting right now we've got red candles that are continuing to be red uh there's some green that's fighting for it so Robin Hood At 3863 down from 3967 the q's at 479 they were at 481 on the day again the airlines going red it's hard to trust Tech going green with the airlines going red because the airlines more of a a a question of the consumer more than anything and I don't know if tech can stay green if the consumer's getting hit where's Best Buy I think they have earnings coming no they had earnings already right if I'm not wrong Best Buy they are uh red as well I think I read a little bit of their earnings the other day I I'm going to go through it again today but I from my understanding their q1 guidance was also slightly lower than what was expected for Best Buy um and that is in line with what we heard from Walmart as well so yeah could these be leading indicators I think so I think I think it's potential I mean seeing that CPI decline on airline fairs to me was just like it it confirmed what Delta was saying anecdotally you know my flight uh had an open row and I'm making fun of it that you know that that means demand was down but like maybe there's some truth to that I not had an open row in a long time on a flight I've been on at least I don't know 15 flights over the past year so to I was shocked I had I was like I was very surprised like wow I have an open row um but but you know maybe it's emblematic of some of the demand going down United right there down 5% Southwest down 2.5 American Airlines down 3.61% here all the big growth names are still green paler Tesla Hood where is Tesla we are still up still up 8% on Tesla bro I I mean like if I had to give one reason to Tesla outside of uh outside of um CPI I honestly do think it's that Trump uh endorsement yesterday I mean I don't know how much that's going to get um uh Maga types of people to buy Tesla because historically they've been the people to not get that excited for Teslas but maybe you see Trump chilling in a freaking model S um yeah I could see some of his base like start to get interested in Tesla Trump got in the car yesterday he was like wow it's all computers right it's like imagine when some of these people start experiencing FSD if they ever get a chance to experience it I mean this is a base of people that probably never would have even gone to a a Tesla dealership I know they're not called dealerships but a Tesla store and maybe now they get more excited to check it out because of Trump by the way egg prices are down egg prices have lost about a dollar per dozen they're still aggressively High they're up 58% year-over-year uh but they are down over the past month they are down over the past month which is nice to see is this because of trump is this because of natural I guess we're going to find out over the coming months if this trend continues to be what it is but um at least we do have some of that starting to go down as well here with the breakdown and [ __ ] why fears are growing on the street hi Steve hey good morning Mike yeah the better than expected CPI this morning offering the best possible setup you could think of for a series of price SES that could be coming into the system from TS it's a better starting place for the fed and its ability to cut rates if there's economic weakness than it's needed headline 02 better than the 05 we had last month ATT 10 better than the estimate core 02 that's half of what it was you can see what's happened the year-over-year rate has come down but perhaps not where it needs to be for the FED to be feel super comfortable about cutting that 3.1% on core probably a half a point uh higher than it would be in the pce meat ptry fish and eggs that was 1.6% that was a a reason for the increased Energy Services used cars and trucks also higher but you got some relief on gas and Airline fairs was probably the biggest reason for the uh number coming in below expectation but that doesn't feed in to the pce number Economist at Raymond James writing quote there will be some inflationary impact from tariffs but it is still not showing in the overall numbers however even if tariffs impact inflation the underlying disinflationary Trend remains intact that's important the outlook for inflation in the months ahead and how the FED might react that's one of the uncertainties markets are dealing with that has some concern about recession the recent failure of old recession guides means forecasters flying somewhat blind you can see there the inverted yield curve in the somal didn't work recession predictions under Biden ended up being wrong most of the time t or all of the time actually tffs look like they will have the biggest effect on the supply side and it's rare for that to be a source of recession McCully Paul McCully Economist says almost by definition a recession is driven by the demand side of the economy which gives you the oh hold on we got another tariff headline hold on is this real oh my goodness dude Canada is imposing 25% of ratory tariffs on 21 billion of worth of us Goods this comes just 10 10 hours after 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum went live this actually shouldn't be that surprising because we did get uh the aluminum and steel tariffs I think at 12 am. last night or technically this morning so this actually shouldn't be that surprising I wonder if the markets actually uh take this and and get upset about it because we probably knew that was happening got some red candles this literally broke one minute ago at least on CNBC um but I think we knew this was coming this one we knew it was coming because the aluminum Trump's backed off on a lot of tffs from Canada but aluminum and steel he has not backed off on and so that one I think was a bit more obvious seeing some red candles nothing crazy um S&P is still holding on to half a percent up there's that red candle right there from 562 to 559 yeah I don't think this one is going to be that that different this is wild bro this is wild every single day it's back and forth headlines around tariffs I mean the one thing you can say about the Biden Administration is that there were barely any headlines it he didn't talk about anything ever and so there weren't ever headlines and so the markets were kind of just like all right we don't know what's going on in the white house but we're just going to folks on earnings and now it's like the market can't not react to a lot of this stuff because it's happening in real time and we're seeing it pretty much every day Scarlet says why Canada and why not China well I think you know this a lot of people have been asking this question why are we not posing it meaningfully on China and we are we are putting I think 10% tariffs on China I don't know what the logic is behind the Canadian ones I mean Trump says you know Canada tariffs us with dairy and all this other stuff so to Trump this is just the way to fight back against Canada um I think he's trying to get leverage here I I mean there's this off chance he's trying to get Canada to be the 51st state which I hate seeing that theory because it's not happening and so like he tweeted about it yesterday again it's like well if Canada just became the 51st state would have to deal with this it's like that's not happening like Canada is not giving up their sovereignty to join the United States so I don't know I think he's trying to Strongarm China right or Canada right here and really prove a point but at what point is that point Canna actually be proved uh let's let's uh finish up with Brad gersner we were listening him a little bit in the morning again he is a proponent of these tariffs and he does think there are some good long-term effects and then we'll keep going from there this is very expensive yeah president Trump says promises made promises delivered he plans on coming through with that and that's why the tariffs are very important because they see that as a form of Revenue Navaro has said that others have said that and that is Kinley style but I was b b said that should that the tariffs would not be included in whatever budget is going to Beed the well I mean ultimately the revenue is the revenue right like of course the revenue of the federal government is going to be included in the p&l of the federal government so uh you know the budget forecast may not include because they don't have visibility right but ultimately it will be the re the question very explicitly that's for this year passing but let's talk let's talk real quickly about tariff Revenue last year tariff Revenue was 56 billion dollars to the federal treasury okay so the question is where's it going Becky if you think we're going to a trillion dollars and we're going to replace the income tax with the external Revenue Service and we're going back to McKinley style where it was 90 % of federal revenues right it would require a shock to the global economic system of massive proportions I just don't think there's support for it among the Business Roundtable CEOs who are in Washington today there's not support for it on Capitol Hill but what there is support for is this president getting fairer trade deals with our partners and using this in this moment to get better deals now what would that mean I think we could take tariff revenue from 56 billion to 100 or 150 billion right over the course of these negotiations you know something closer to 10% across the board but right now it's unknown he's in the middle of the negotiation we have to let him negotiate and if you if you don't like the turmoil you got to step to the side who pays the tariffs because this morning we already had our reporter in Beijing Unice Yun talking about how Walmart has been saying to the suppliers trying to Presser the Chinese suppliers to pick up on some of this and China's government is basically now saying forget it sure don't don't don't come looking us for those tariffs if we end up paying them as American consumers tariffs a tax right sure absolutely which is why I said we can sustain $50 billion doar or 75 or hundred billion dollars more but not a trillion dollars more that would be massive austerity and a ma a massive tax but you know economic theory we know producers particularly in China will absorb a lot of this tariff increase but we also know that a bunch of this stuff is going to be passed on so let me give you one example um China or Canada and Mexico versus China right in China it's an export economy The Producers have no choice but to absorb a lot of the price increase but in Mexico if you're assembling an AI server in Mexico with parts that you proc procured from Asia right there's no way you can absorb that price increase and so those price increases are already going into effect right the price of computers are already going up in the United States as result of this so I think when you look at Canada and Mexico I certainly hope and I think a lot of people share this view we need to get their action on the border I mean listen credit where credit is due right on the issue of immigration we were told for three years that we needed a statute before anything could be done to slow the flood of people across the the southern border totally untrue right and we're back to 20year lows so we have gotten a lot of action I do think it's having an impact on the fentanyl labs in you know in Mexico and Canada but the reality is th those are positive externalities of this negotiation these are our trading partners we need to get Fair reciprocity from Canada and Mexico and then be done with it and get back to business let me ask see the problem is no one knows how that's going to happen when that's going to happen if that's going to happen and what exactly is quote unquote Fair reciprocity no one knows that and as a result that's why we're seeing some red candles Nvidia down from 117 to 114 Tesla 2551 to 246 Sofi 12 to 1150 hoodie 39 to 37 it is really hard to trust any of these rallies quote unquote rallies more more like kind of swings to the upside um because they they they just they either get a headline or people sell into that strength or the alos take it back down as we get more news about tariffs poun right here 8180 as well up 4. eight% right now um yeah dude it's the same thing every single day it's it's not really changing like it's it's it's it's the same narrative every day and and you know it's been what almost four weeks now of just up and down intraday ending down the next day going up a little bit then coming back down then getting a nice recovery so that we're not as low as we were before like Tesla doesn't go below 200 it's back above 230 now at 247 but then in another couple couple days we're back at 220 like it's it's almost it's almost comical how easily it's happening but it's almost like you want it to kind of either get flushed out and like straight up like all right let's go down let's get it over with so we can start recovering or let's let's pick a direction to the upside but that that's not what's happening here that's not what's happening at all Amazon was at 192 the other day now it's at 198 meta 622 was at 604 down from 740 and then Google right here 164 up from 161 but down from 1 90 a couple weeks ago um yeah it's the same thing dude it's the same thing every single time did Trump tweet again let me make sure I don't think we got a trump tweet yet and and this we haven't even talked about the EU bro we've been talking about Canada Mexico and China but Trump wants to do a bunch of stuff in the EU Trump just said wow people are loving Elon a great Patriot ni to see okay so at least it's not tariff stuff at least it's not tarff stuff bro um I don't know dude this is uh this is this is going to be a pretty freaking wild next couple years in this market here's a here's a clip from Trump yesterday talking about why he thinks the markets or at least the econom is going to do very well what do you think of it Margo do you like the idea I love it okay good we're gonna have fun very happy Mr President your comments the other day not Brewing out a potential recession seem to Rattle the stock markets the Commerce Secretary going just so you just specifically on the recession do you think there will be a recession I don't see it at all I think this country is going to Boom but as I said I can do it the easy way or the hard way the hard way to do it is exactly what I'm doing but the results are going to be 20 times greater so the easy way or the hard way basically means either I can be putting us through this tariff volatility to get to Trump's desired results which is an overall boobing economy or he just continues to unleash the money printer and obviously he's going the hard way here we've all kind of felt that he's going the hard way but it is yet to be known if that hard way is actually going to pay off in any meaningful meaningful type of way I don't know dude we're gonna have to see we're gonna have to see here was here was Ron Baron yesterday as well talking about Tesla he continues last time Ron Baron was on CC talkinging about Tesla Tesla was at 170 went all the way up to 480 after that um so we'll see if that has the same impact at all but he continues to believe that the robot taxi network is going to be the biggest cash count for Tesla are changing instead of making five or six or $7,000 a car you're going to Robo cars and every time they have a million cars that they make that they keep that are $30,000 a piece that last a million miles those cars are going to generate 50,000 Revenue miles a year so before the model was they making $7,000 in profit a car 6,000 in profit a car a million eight cars now all of a sudden you're keeping the cars and making them Robo taxis what that means is that if you do 50,000 miles a year for a car those cars generate will generate 50,000 Revenue miles to generate 30 or 4 or $50,000 in profit per year per car so every time you have a million cars you're adding 30 or 40 or $50 billion doll to 30 or 40 $50 billion to profits per year are changing it's the same analysis that Kathy Wood's been given right which is this idea of okay if Tesla does get the cost per mile to be significantly lower than Uber Lyft whmo Etc they will have demand that explodes I I mean I agree with that like in theory that makes sense I think in practicality we have to see can they get that cost of mile to come down if is FSD going to be successful in that launch in uh in June when they officially unveil robot taxi in Texas and then I think we'll have some comparable stats to look at right now it's just a little Theory that's why June's going to be really important and that's right that's two months after q1 ends so that's in the middle of Q2 that Austin launch is going to be really important bro if that Austin launch doesn't really at least begin to show signs of this robotaxi Vision that elon's been preaching about for the past 15 years then I think we're gonna have some issues but that one is is definitely going to be important Roba just had a price stuck by price price cut by Deutsche Bank let me see if I can find that I I would not be surprised to see the analysts start cutting their targets on Hood if they think growth is going to slow down in the broader economy it's kind of normal to see them do that um and again over they're not necessarily wrong I think I think Robin is going to be fine long term but in the short term yeah volatility could get them hit yeah they lowered it from 75 to 61 they said their February metrics were good it reduced C uh they're lowering it on crypto transaction volumes and a drisking from the macro backdrop that's why robinett got the downgrade today from 75 to 61 from deuts bank which again is fair if we get a nice August 5th type of v-shaped recovery and markets go boom again then I think Hood's goingon to be a main beneficiary but if we stay flat or keep oscillating back and forth yeah it's it's definitely going to be a little tough for Hood to get back to those highs so it's going to take some time for us to see how or when this ends up playing out um okay what else what other headlines do we have right now so we talked about CPI that was kind of the main headline this morning um Bloomberg says Putin is likely to eventually agree to a truce but with his own terms that is another story that we're going to have to see play out over the coming weeks uh Trump will be in Saudi Arabia later this week as well with uh Ukraine and zalinski and they'll be negotiating it does seem like the minerals deal will be signed which is going to be good but what does that mean for Russia do they come to the table I think we're going to have to end up finding out I think we have the news and the tariffs right here so let me pull this up right now the EU overnight announcing some retaliatory tariffs and then just in the last few minutes Canada now saying they will be putting 25% tariffs starting tomorrow on about20 billion in US exports they say they'll mostly be targeting steel and aluminum but they're also going to hit some other us Imports they say that'll include computers sports equipment and cast iron products just as some examples so expect more details to come from Canada and I would also expect more retaliatory announcements to come today guys as other countries start to digest this move because remember this hits everybody across the world so we do expect to see more retaliation and now getting back to where left off this is the rare policy move where we have a pretty good idea of what the economic impact will be because we saw this happen in president Trump's first term when he first imposed these tariffs on most at the time steel and aluminum Imports that was back in 2018 he then later carved out a handful of countries in part because of the economic impact that we saw the upshot at the time was that there was some modest help for domestic steel and aluminum producers but all steel and aluminum users were hurt and as Steve was saying since that's a far larger subset of the economy the net impact overall was a negative one so just to put a couple of numbers behind it some research from the Federal Reserve it found that the tariffs boosted employment in manufacturing by about 0.3% that's how much it helped producers but the rising input cost then dragged down the same sector's employment in manufacturing by a little over 1% retaliation pulled it down another 7 t0 of percent so then on net the impact was about a 1.4% hit to manufacturing the count on Foreign Relations says that was a direct loss of about 75,000 manufacturing jobs and to put it more simply Economist at the Peterson Institute estimated there was a cost to Consumers of about $900,000 for every one job saved or created in the steel industry and remember guys those tariffs impacted only a fraction of the steel and aluminum Imports that are seeing new duties today so we can expect that impact to only multiply now that it's a bigger move guys me Megan it felt like in in Trump 1.0 uh that the the uh tariff policy was really solving for what you just laid out job preservation preservation of manufacturing this time it feels a lot more muddied it feels like you know one day it's about fentanyl one day it's about you know making sure that us manufacturing remains competitive and and jobs are saved what are you hearing in Washington in terms of the priorities that they're looking for uh because that confusion makes it difficult to assess you know what exactly is going to happen next if the fentanyl is gets solved then are are tariffs going away um or if the manufacturing preservation if they find workarounds does that go away but without really knowing what they're solving for makes it kind of challenging absolutely you are hitting on what I hear from the most hear the most about from industry uh from companies from consumers is that it's not clear what the goal is with these and because of that people don't know how to react they don't know what the overarching priorities are you're absolutely right first it was Sentinel these tariffs are about National Security the reciprocal tariffs are about fairness and a level playing field and maybe the trade deficit and maybe just some long-standing gripes with the EU and with Canada particularly those are the ones we hear the most where the president seems to have some personal uh frictions or some personal gripes I would say so what I hear from the White House is that it shifts almost every time that you talk to them they're focused on the same pool of things that you and I have now both mentioned uh but they're not always leaning on just one remember a few weeks ago they said they were never going to take the Canada and Mexico tariffs off until there were zero fenal deaths in the US obviously we didn't get to that point then they said they talked to the car companies they didn't want to hurt them that's how they removed about half of those so we just don't know and you're right that industry does not like that they're using tariffs to try to solve for non-economic issues we will have to see how that develops we oh boy we continue to have this tariff I I don't even know what to call it but I guess volatility is the best word going back and forth I don't think the Administration has a plan right now I think they kind of have a plan but the plan changes every other day and that's why it's kind of hard to keep up with markets and for stocks to pick one direction to go up or down I I do think we still end up green for the day I mean we'll see as we uh end out the day in a few hours but we are green right now we're holding on to the green it's not as green as it was an hour ago and maybe it's not going to be as green as it is right now but based on the day we had on Monday which I I don't know if I want to say that's the bottom but it was definitely a hell of a day where a lot of bottom indicators started going off maybe we get a little bit of a rebound but it is purely going to depend at this point on the headlines that come from these tariffs um all right that is it for me on the show guys I have to leave a little bit early today I am uh doing something today that I can't say yet tomorrow you will find out where I'm at and what I'm doing that's why I can't say currently what state I'm in either but you guys will find out and um um what was I going to say uh I'm not going to do the market close today because uh I'm going to be gone the the whole day there's yeah there's a very low probability that I'll be doing the market close today but we will have the market open tomorrow uh a couple super chats real quick Kenneth first of all thank you for becoming a channel member appreciate it uh bucket list guy thank you for the $5 Super Chat tuned into the mega mind Morning Report LOL feel better soon AIT I hope even in the midst of this Market volatility at least you got some laughs from looking at my hair this morning morning there were very very friendly comments in the chat so I if you're going to be a content creator you better have a thick skin bro you better have a thick freaking skin Warren thank you for the 670 Taiwanese dollars can you give us some smci advice my only thing on smci which has been the same for a very long time is that um you have to be able to trust them now that they filed the 10K you can trust them I think it's really cheap at these levels I'm not buying it because I'd rather buy Nvidia but if you're heavy smci you got to wait till the semi come back and once the semis come back once Nvidia comes back um you'll have a better chance for smci to come back but the fear that they were a fraud company has gone away at least to an extent given they filed the 10K so now if you're in it you kind of just hold on to him that's what Steve's doing he's just holding on he likes smci likes Nvidia together likes that kind of semis theme and you got to wait for this ter fatil to go away for the semis to to come back as well you guys are saying AIP con I don't know I guess we'll find out tomorrow I guess we'll find out tomorrow who knows knows who knows maybe maybe not I can't I can't officially say anything but I guess we'll find out tomorrow um all right what's word of the day let's do word of the day dude I really did not want to miss the show yesterday bro we had so much news we had jolt happening yesterday like I really hated missing the show again I was talking about this in the morning today but I really value consistency I think it's so hard in life to be consistent at anything and like once you get consistent at something you want to like actually you know be consistent been consistent for basically two and a half years on the show I don't think I've taken a single sick day but yesterday was bad dude I woke up in the morning I was just like I can't go live like I'm I'm not I'm not gonna be able to talk for for five minutes without sneezing or anything so it just didn't make sense to to go live but I popped a decent amount of taleno and I don't have a fever it's just like I think I think I caught something from my parents because they were sick and it's not as bad but yesterday morning it was pretty but I think we got to sleep off most of it okay word of the day interesting uh carp we do have a pal teers a con tomorrow so and maybe a guy named karp will be there but let's see how you say this carp all right carp not Carpe or Carpio or something ridiculous it's just carp it's normal to find fault or complain unreasonably drivers carp out traffic yet refused to carpool instead of appreciating the meal he just carped about the portion size I guess I've been carping about the market I don't know if it's unreasonable though I don't know if my complaints have been completely unreasonable I mean we've had a lot of volatility with headlines back and forth that feel a bit ridiculous but I probably have been carping about these markets and I'm pretty sure everyone has as well dude it's one of those things where you reset in the markets right you reset like you were up alltime highs everyone was happy and then boom you get smacked in the face have to go right back down probably not to lows like alltime lows but you know everyone's taking a decent haircut and you kind of just deal with it and you get ready for the hopeful rebound over the long term my girlfriend is a big Carper oh my gosh carping about Wall Street carping yeah pretty much pretty much all right cool stuff we will be back to tomorrow on the uh Market open and uh will not be live today on the market close but tomorrow will be a fun day you guys will see why and it'll be an exciting day as it usually is um no Market close tomorrow either but I I do believe we'll have a market open tomorrow um and yeah that's pretty much it and we'll be back um to our regular schedule on on freaking uh on Monday starting next Monday so Matt says wi is M slacking dude I really didn't want to take off yesterday like I I don't like doing that I don't I don't freaking no matter rain or shine no matter how bad I'm feeling and I've felt pretty crappy on certain mornings I I do the show but at some level it's just like if you're sneezing and blowing your nose every two seconds like you just know it's not going to be a good show so it made sense to at least try to take off and and get some rest um all right I think that's it I think that's it uh I'll be back tomorrow I'm gonna make another coffee with this cure egg bro I'm long cure egg how much is a cure egg bro I'm gonna check right now how much is a cure egg I want to buy a cure egg machine because yeah dude 70 bucks come on bro come on bro I'm getting a cure egg I'm getting a freaking cureg like look at this thing Bro Look at Kure egg this is like this is I don't know I can't believe I've never tried a cure egg before I've never tried it before I tried it today at the Airbnb it was great it's freaking great so I think I'm done with buying coffee I'm just gonna get a curig now and uh we'll go long coffee it's better than William Sona $44,000 so we'll see we'll see what I do you guys are saying don't do it there's mold issues okay look at the bear cases for cure egg but the experience today was great dude you P fill in the water put in the thing takes five minutes boom you got your coffee so it was my first experience ever with a curig today and I feel like I feel like this is the easiest way to to drink coffee in the morning now yeah a bunch of you are saying it's good NE Nespresso is 100% better okay we might have to get an Nespresso instead it was just so easy bro like getting coffee this it was so easy like instead of having to drive it's like you just pop in the I was like why have I never done this before so yeah I think we're going to make that investment in we'll have a cure egg every day or an espresso whatever it is markets are still holding up a little bit green we'll see how they end out towards the end of the day again won't be live for the market Clos but I'll be by I'll be live for Market open tomorrow and um and we'll keep going from there all right that's it everybody I got a long day ahead got to do some practicing for tomorrow I think you guys already know what's happening tomorrow I can't literally say it but you guys already know what's happening tomorrow so tomorrow will be fun you guys will see I'll post some pictures today on X today which will make it obvious what I'm doing for tomorrow but um yeah we'll be back on the market open tomorrow all right that's it thank you everybody also just a real quick thank you to everyone who um who who said to get better I didn't expect that many comments there was like 300 of you that were like feel better and um a decent amount of messages that were pissed that there was no show and then I was like I'm sick and you're like oh okay I feel feel better but like if I wasn't sick and I took off for just like I don't feel like doing it I think you guys would be more pissed but you guys let me get away with it because I was sick so everyone who I everyone who was mad I was like yeah I'm sick they're like oh okay I feel better but if I wasn't sick Bro I would have had to deal with some freaking wrath and fury for missing the show today and it makes sense you know like I like I feel the same like with creators that I follow when they don't post it's like if it's part of your routine then you know it's part of your routine and it's annoying to try to find something else to fill up that time but um yeah I think we should be good we should be good for the rest of the week and hopefully good for the rest of the year we continue to not getting sick so all right cool hopefully you enjoyed uh making fun of my hair this is why I wear a hat every day bro I told you guys like my hair is freaking now I know how carp feels like at least from the hair comments bro like goodness gracious people are just crazy I don't know maybe get a perm bro maybe get a buzz cut I've had this hair for like years maybe we do we'll figure out we'll do something with it later all right thank you everybody I'll see you guys tomorrow on the market open bye everyone have a good one