Okay folks, we are here. The last structured teaching of the ICT mentorship. Can you believe we're here? Alright, so ICT short-term top-down analysis, 4 hours to 5 minutes. Okay, let me preface it again by saying this is my personal approach.
So everything that you've been taught, this is how I actually employ it from a four-hour down to a five-minute time frame. The focus of this presentation is to determine the impact of the four-hour perspective on a given asset or market, identify directional bias for the high time frame intraday four-hour chart, classify the PDA rates accurately to assist in key levels, complete an institutional analysis on a four-hour basis. Okay, so the beginning of my analysis when you start on a four-hour chart working our way down into lower time frames The first thing that's in my mind is the day of the week that we're trading Okay, you know what's what day of the week are we on preferably?
This is going to be a weekend analysis And I'm gonna be looking at the likelihood of us opening up on Sunday watching where we trade see what there's any There's a gap if it's in a rush to get somewhere right away. It's beginning of the week But typically I'm gonna be watching what's going on Monday to see what Tuesday and Wednesday can bring for a one-shot, one-kill. Before we go any further though, all monthly, weekly, and daily analysis is included when viewing the four-hour perspective.
After I determine the day of the week and what type of profiles and templates that may exist for that particular day, I'm going to be looking at IPTA and defining it in true day. So I want to be making sure I'm only focusing on setups inside of the parameters that make up True Day as taught to you in the mentorship. And then I'm going to be looking at specific times of the day. And these are your kill zones. That's in London Open, New York Open, London Close, and Asia.
Now I'm going to be including the central bank dealers range. So I'm going to be incorporating that range in price, looking for the consolidations in there. And I'm going to be looking for standard deviations to align with potential highs and lows of the day. I'm going to be incorporating the Asian range.
So I'll be looking for, again, standard deviations there as well. And now the flout. I'll be including the... Deviations on the flout, which is basically the Asian range and central bank dealers range. Time-limited combined, that total range, high and low.
I'll be looking for standard deviations for that, and we'll talk more about that when we get into deeper discussion for this presentation. Okay, intraday profiles. What do the intraday models suggest in terms of price action?
Are we going to have a down day with an up? due to swing first in London or is it going to be a quiet London and a run in New York? So I'm going to be referring to potential intraday profiles. I'm going to be doing my PDA raise to qualify my key levels for targets and entries.
And I'll be including average daily range projections as well to help me facilitate the daily highs and lows on the day. And all of these insights, in addition to the analysis ideas I've had transposed from the monthly, weekly, and daily, I take what I see on the 4-hour and I carry that over into the intraday charts. Now, here's where we have to decide what we're going to be doing.
Are we going to drop down from a 4-hour to a 60-minute chart? Are we going to drop down to a 30-minute chart, a 15-minute chart, a 5-minute chart, even a 1-minute chart? I didn't include it because I don't like 1-minute charts, but you need to decide where you're going to go from 4-hour.
So I don't want to push you into a mold and say it has to be this way because there's obviously many different ways to look at time. 60 minutes is a decent time frame to drop down to, but it's still going to have to be refined a little bit more. I like to go down from a four hour down to a 30 minute or 15 personally and then further refine it for five minutes. If I can get my entries and executions off on the five minute, that's great. But I'm usually looking for the setups to confirm entries on 15 minute minimum.
The best is to get it down until five minutes, but I don't always have the luxury of getting into a five minute chart to refine it. But if I do, I'm going to certainly try to do that. But from four hour down to the next time frame, I'll leave that up to you because I just got to be some measure of personalized approach. In other words, you've got to be able to make it work for you. The reason why it's got to be flexible is because the time frames below 4-hour may be muddy on the 60-minute chart, but may be a lot more clear with gaps and such on the 15-minute or 5-minute chart.
So it's important that you know when we drop down from a 4-hour, what we're doing is we're looking for a time frame that produces fair value gaps. That's the key. So you may not see a fair value gap going down into a 1-hour chart, but it may exist on a 15-minute time frame. So that way you can pick your PD arrays relative to gaps.
Bullish order blocks, breakers, of that nature. But you'll be able to see it when there's lower time frames because they can become more spotty. The higher time frames are going to smooth out price. The lower time frames are going to create those little pockets of illiquidity where it needs to be refinished and refined. Okay, day of the week.
Using the previous daily, weekly, and monthly analysis, I look for reasons to trade in that higher time frame directional bias. And if I'm bearish from the higher time frame, I look for shorts on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays. If I'm bullish from the higher time frame, I look for longs on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays. Now, if I'm expecting the Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday influence and it does not materialize, I look for the late week scenarios on Thursday and Friday to come into fruition.
So, in other words, if we have weekly templates or if I have daily templates that I expect to see unfold in price action or market I'm watching. If I don't see what I anticipate as a bullish move or bearish move on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday, say I got it wrong or it doesn't materialize whatsoever, then I want to be focusing on Thursday and Friday templates and what type of weekly profile that may align as well using the economic calendar. IPTA True Day. Now, I look for setups from the higher time frame analysis within the hours defined by True Day.
Now, the bulk of the daily volume will be between 3 a.m. and 2 p.m. 10 am New York time. I want to either position myself correctly ahead of this window or during the first half of it.
After New York open, I have to lower my expectations and be content with smaller objectives intraday. Time of day kill zones. Utilizing the higher time frame analysis, I will look for a trade setup in the London open kill zone.
I aim for the low of the day when the higher time frame is bullish. If I fail in London, I look for a New York open setup to reposition or get a new position. Utilizing the higher time frame analysis, I will look for a trade setup in a London open kill zone. I aim for the high of the day when the higher time frame is bearish. If I fail in London, I look for a New York open setup to reposition or get a position on.
I look to collapse the bulk or all of my intraday positions starting at the 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock in the morning New York time window. That's profit taking or the beginnings of lending close. Central bank dealers range deviations.
Now when the higher time frame analysis suggests that I should be bullish, I will use one, two, or three negative standard deviations, in other words going down, of the central bank dealers range for long entries. I look for 15 to 60 minute discount arrays that overlap with these standard deviations to determine which I will frame my entry on. When the higher time frame analysis suggests that I should be bearish, I will use plus 1, plus 2, or plus 3 standard deviations of the central bank dealer's range for short entries.
I look for 15 to 60 minute premium arrays to overlap with these standard deviations to determine which one I will frame my entry on. So what I'm looking for is standard deviations in the form of 1, 2, or 3 higher when I want to go short. But I'm not just simply selling short on one standard deviation or two standard deviations or three standard deviations up.
I'm looking for a premium array, if I'm bearish, on a 60-minute time frame that will overlap with that same standard deviation. So it's a matter of blending. I don't just indiscriminately add one or two deviations and say, OK, I'm going to go short there.
I'm looking for a 60-minute. less than 4 hour Or a 15-minute premium array. It may be a fair value gap. It may be an old high. It needs to run back above for stops.
So there's a turtle suit. But it overlaps with the central bank dealer's range deviation. That's the key.
You want to blend those things together. And again, it's all about the PDR rate matrix. If you don't use that or understand it, you're not going to be consistent with my stuff. It's simple as that.
Okay, the Asian range. If my higher time frame analysis is bullish... I will look to enter longs below the Asian range high, preferably under the low. If my higher time frame analysis is bearish, I will look to enter shorts above the Asian range low, preferably above the Asian range high. Now let me rephrase that so we understand each other perfectly.
If I'm bullish, the best scenario is to go long below the Asian range low. But as long as I'm below the Asian range high, I'll still take what I consider high probability longs. If I'm bearish, I preferably want to go short above the Asian range high.
But as long as I'm trading short above the Asian range low, it's still defined as a high probability scenario. Now, if I'm bullish, I expect the Asian range high to be retested for entry as support or adding to open positions for a long. If I'm bearish and I expect Asian range low to be retested for an entry short or adding to an open position for short holdings. In other words, if I have a low that I've bought at and the Asian range high comes back down into a retracement and it hits the Asian range high, many times it'll do that and then accelerate and expand towards the New York open. Sometimes doing a New York open.
the Asian range high when it's been bullish will be retraded to and retested as support. And then it'll rally again going into London close or many times into the next day or following. The same thing is said in opposite terms for when it's perished.
If you're looking for, if I'm looking for, an opportunity to go short and the market has already moved down away from the Asian range, during New York it can rally back up into the Asian range low and retest that. And that could be another opportunity for me to get short or add to an existing position. For the daily range projections, I look for standard deviations in the Asian range to overlap with those that are seen in the central bank dealer's range for the low and high of the day. So in other words, what I'm saying here is central bank dealer's range and Asian range confluences. When they get really close to a level and it lines up with a PD array, chances are you're probably going to be nailing very close to the high or low of the day.
All right, some of you have been dying for this one. Flout. And you've probably been expecting some PhD level presentation, but it's not that hard. The flout is the central bank dealer's range and the Asian range combined. It's that whole time window, the highest high and the lowest low in the form of the wick and in the form of the bodies of the candles.
So go back and look at the lesson I talked about in this mentorship. But if I am bullish, I look for overlapping in the total range of the central bank dealer's range and Asian range that has been divided in half. And this makes one standard deviation.
So in other words, if the range that starts in Central Bank Dealers Range opening all the way to Asian Range close at midnight New York time, whatever the highest high and whatever the lowest low is, say that is 40 pips. Half of that range is 20. 20 pips is the standard deviation for flout. And I go from the center point, go up one. That's one standard deviation. Two, three, four, so on.
Those standard deviations, it's half of the range that makes up central bank dealer's range and Asian range in terms of time. Find the highest high and the lowest low. Divide that range in half.
Project that up. Only half of the range that makes the standard deviation. It's not the full range high to low. Looking for confluences of flout, standard deviations and central bank dealer's range and Asian range with discounted raise on the 60 to 15 minute. ideal for entries.
If I'm bearish, I'd look for overlapping in the total range of the central bank dealers range and Asian range that has been divided in half as one standard deviation. Looking for confluence as a flout, standard deviation and central bank dealers range and Asian range with premium arrays on the 60 minute to 15 minute is ideal for entries. So I already know you're gonna be asking for examples of this and I'm going to show you some next week when we finish up the month of August. But flout is only half.
of the total range and you start nesting them out lower and lower and lower. Now flout can be many standard deviations. There isn't a rule-based idea like there is for Central Bank Dealers Range or Asian Range.
Asian Range can go up one or two standard deviations and create a high or down one or two standard deviations and create a low the day. Flout can be many standard deviations that have to keep being applied and added to as the daily range goes up you keep adding another level of flout. When we start approaching extremes on the day and into high premium levels on a 60 minute or 15 minute time frame, then we're close to London close. Then you're probably going to be real close to the actual low or high of the day. Intraday profiles.
When I'm bearish, I look for high of the day in London. And when I'm bullish, I look for low of the day in London. When I'm bearish, and the 4-hour has not yet traded to a discount array, I expect New York open to continue lower.
When I'm bullish and the 4-hour has not yet traded to a premium array, I expect New York open to continue higher. A lot of questions I get is, how do I know there's going to be a New York session reversal? If it trades to a 4-hour premium array, it's probably going to be a market reversal in New York and it's going to come lower.
If it's been trading down and it trades down into a four hour discounted rate during the New York session, there's probably a high probability it's going to create a New York market reversal. As long as that has not happened or has yet to happen, chances are the New York session will be a continuation thereof of the higher time frame momentum and bias and institutional order flow. And until that happens, the London and New York will be in agreement in terms of direction. If you want more information, if you need to be refresher, go back to April's content and it gets you more specifics about intraday profiles.
Okay, then I note the key price levels. Now, once I determine a portion of market structure I want to use for my trade ideas, in other words, I'm defining a range. Either I'm going to operate as internal range liquidity or I'm going to be working off external range liquidity. I calibrate those levels from the PD array matrix to the nearest 10 level or 5 level. And we've already seen this slide three other times, so I'm not going to go into great detail.
And then finally, I look at the average daily range projections. And I use a five-day average daily range to help me determine possible intraday range extremes for the single day that I'm trading. Now, if I'm bullish, I look for the market to trade to the average daily range high. Now, if this average daily range high is broken, I use the Fibonacci on the average daily range high and low.
And I use that as a projection for 127 extension and 162 extensions as targets. By themselves, they're nothing. But I look for a premium array when I'm looking for average daily range high when it's broken. I look for 127 to line up with a premium array on a 60-minute or 15-minute time frame or 162 extension to overlap with a 60-minute or 15-minute premium array. And the reverse is said when I'm bearish.
If I am bearish, I look for the market to trade to the average daily range low. And if the average daily range is broken and goes well beyond the average daily range low, I use the Fib on the average daily range high and low for a 127% or a 162% extension for downside targets. By themselves, they don't mean anything, but they have to overlap with a discount array on a 15 or 60 minute time frame.
Blending those things together and incorporating central bank dealers range standard deviations. Asian range standard deviations and flout standard deviations, you'll get many times within 10 pips of the daily high and the low. That's the reason why I want to get out 10 pips before, because I may be wrong in my projections on where the high and the low may form. And preferably, if I'm long, I'm trying to calculate where that high is going to be at. I want to be out definitely in the direction it's moving.
Will I hold for the last couple of pips? No. Every time I've done that, either frustrated me because I never got to where I wanted it to go or it fell short. So these are all projections.
Projections are not absolutions. The standard deviations are assisting. They are not guaranteeing.
OK, they're not panaceas. Over time, you're going to see they have very good results in terms of helping you determine where the level is. But as you can see, there's a multiple of varying. standard deviations that can come from the flout. Central Bank Dealers Range and Asian Range.
It's the blending of all three and then using an average daily range And if it breaks on the average daily range, I mean you got a big range day How much of a big range day you got to start going back and looking at those standard deviations on Central Bank Dealers Range Flout and Asian Range to overlap with as you keep building them up on bullish days or adding them down when it's bearish Looking for the respective premium or discount array on the 15 or 60 minute time frame when they arrive at an overlap or converge, you're usually within 10 pips of a variance between that. And that's why I want to be getting out early. I don't mind getting out and leaving the last 25, 30 pips on the table.
I don't care. As long as I'm getting consistent range expansions and I'm able to get a nice piece of it, that's all I care about. I've been doing this for a very long time. I've never been perfect. I've never gotten to the actual high every single time I've done it or getting out to low every single time I've done it.
And every time I've tried to be that consistent or that. accurate, it's always hurt me. So I want to be getting out as long as the trains moving in that direction and I get out I'm going in the right direction. You can't go wrong by taking profits whether demo or live.
Alright patterns for consideration. Now obviously I've taught from the context of a condition which is a higher time frame directional bias and then the stage What sets your trade up? What's it look like?
Okay, then you execute execution is talked about in the mentorship on where we get in and get out at whether we're buying on limits or selling on limits or you know, limit orders or market orders. It's been talked about and explained to you. It's not my point to give you entry techniques because that's already been covered.
The main thing is where's the setups because once you understand where the market's going and you understand the setup, the entry stuff is easy. So as a technical trader, we only need one setup or one pattern to trade on. So let's get started right now. A lot of tools have been taught to you. So many that you're probably heads swirling around like what am I supposed to do next?
These lessons have provided you how I actually use it by step by step approach. What I do conceptually now, each one of these things I've given you in terms of what I look to do has been explained in greater detail in previous lessons. So it would be stupid for me to waste your time and mine to go and rehash all that again. Because the first complaint I would have if it was me, I'd say, well, aren't you just repeating what you said?
No, I'm telling you in the order of the very specific detail of the order of how I do each thing. Then go back to the mentorship and everything that I taught you. It's all there. This is the order that I do it. Now, once I go through that whole list of things in the order that I've taught so far in August content and all four teachings up till now, at some point.
you will arrive at all those conditions in green. And it says that you have to look for a trade or a setup. Now I'm going to teach you the two setups that I trade.
I don't do anything else. I don't look for any other patterns. I don't try to work on any other information. This is all that I look for.
Now, again, I'm saying this to tell you that this is how I internalize and how I look to execute in the marketplace. It is not an invitation for you to do this and never experiment, never test ideas or inspiration that you get by looking at certain things. Like I've looked at several different approaches to trading this past week with you on live sessions, and we went through a couple of different things. We looked at the scenario with the euro dollar and it eventually panned out. We looked for scenarios in the Japanese yen.
It panned out. We looked for a market move in gold, which we'll look at before we close this session out, and it panned out. So you only need one pattern, and the importance of sticking to that one pattern is paramount, because if you try to change or do more than one thing in the beginning, you're not going to be able to measure consistency, and you're not going to be able to build your confidence, which is necessary to sticking to it.
There's going to be periods when it doesn't work or you do it wrong, and that's normal. It's nothing to be ashamed of. It's nothing to be afraid of. You're going to screw it up, which is the reason why I teach in a demo.
It gives you the permission to mess it up. It gives me the permission to mess it up as your teacher. OK, because it's going to harm nobody. It's not going to hurt me monetarily.
It's not going to hurt you monetarily. No financial damage can happen. And you can't get emotional about making money in a demo because it's not real spendable money.
So that's the environment you need to learn in. So. Over the next couple of slides, I'm going to actually share with you the actual things that I look for, how my mind interprets price, and these are my go-to patterns. You're going to see that they're not overly complicated. You're going to recognize them right away.
You're going to see, oh, yeah, I've seen them when we talked about it. You're going to know right away that I'm not doing a whole lot. I don't have a slew of all these different things. Now, I can see ICT stingers.
I can see reflection patterns. I can see oral patterns, all those things that I've talked about in free tutorials and on YouTube and all that stuff. I can see all those things there and I can see them and I let them pass. I talk about, oh, it could do this and it could do that, but I'm not executing on them.
The things that I execute on, either in demo and teaching and or that I do in my live trades, these are the patterns I hunt. This is what I'm looking to do. Now, again, please understand that I am not trying to press you into the mold that ICT patterns only. Don't think that you have to do these patterns to be able to be successful because there's other ways to use the information I've provided you. your setups may be slightly different than what I'm showing you here.
But these are the hallmarks to how I internalize and analyze the markets. And when I'm right, I attribute it to these patterns. So I'll share a few with you in the coming slides to illustrate the simple yet effective approach and how it can be.
Only searching for one setup for speculation in your demo account practice. These are by no means the only possible patterns for use in the mentorship. I include my personal favorites. and a few others to stimulate your interest and inspiration. All right, the first one is an ICT bullish pattern number one.
Okay, and the condition is the higher time frame has to be bullish. And the stage or the setup is price is going to bounce off of a higher time frame discount array. An impulse swing creates a fair value gap near the swing low. A short-term low forms market structure and fails to rally higher after equal highs or a higher high is formed.
Price will eventually drop down into the fair value gap and under the short-term low forming after the impulse price swing forms. Sell stops are triggered. Smart money uses offset accumulation to pair long entries with the sell stop rate for a discount entry.
Everything is explained here in this picture. You've seen this happen many, many times in the mentorship. I've outlined this and we saw many times where either I participated and it didn't work out or I participated and it worked out or I outlined it.
I didn't do a demo trade and it actually panned out. So you've seen all aspects of it where it didn't work, where it did work. And when I called it and didn't participate and it worked out in terms of price action.
This to me, this is my fair value play or. optimal trade entry. This is the actual optimal trade entry in great detail that wasn't explained when I was on the forums back in 2010. So when I came out on the scene, everybody was simply looking for 62 to 79% trace levels to get into ICT optimal trade entries. Pulling a fib from the low up to the impulse swing after it tries to make an attempt to rally higher, then when it drops down to optimal trade entry, either 62, 70.5. or 79% retracement levels, that overlapping with a fair value gap, a short-term low where the sell stops will be residing, and back into a bullish order block, you have four things going for you.
Four. You have four confluences. If you have that with higher timeframe bullishness, you have a lead pipe cinch doozy. If it's going to go up, it's going to go up really strong on this because you have four things going for you. It's not a guarantee.
It's not guaranteed to go up. But I have learned in my own analysis, my study, that this is the criteria that works more than any other. There's many times where it'll rally up and then retrace and there is no short term low in between. If there isn't, it's not as high probability.
But when I see this, this is the one I want to be trading when I'm doing fair value buys or in this case, optimal trade entry. This is a internal range liquidity. range expansion trade. So in other words, it creates a range from the low at the order block up to the impulse swing and starts to retrace.
While it's retracing inside that range, that's internal range liquidity going long inside that range with the expectation that it's going to expand outside of it. And I'm going to be targeting external range liquidity. OK, the second one is the ICT bullish pattern number two. And I don't have any names for these except for just simply. a fair value and now this is a turtle suit or external range liquidity.
Again the condition on the higher time frame is going to be bullish. And the stage or setup is this. Price will bounce prior to a predetermined or anticipated higher time frame discount array.
Price drops lower into the anticipated higher time frame discount array at a later time and raid sell stops in the form of a liquidity pool. Sell stops are triggered. Smart money uses offset accumulation to pair long entries with sell stop raid discount entry ICT version of turtle soup. Now when you look at Street Smarts book where I got the inspiration for this pattern.
It doesn't map it out like this. It just gives you here's a low goes down below the low by there. And that's a little myopic, in my opinion. There's got to be some other understandings.
And this is how I look at it. If I internalize the likelihood of the price coming down to a we'll just call it a support level. OK, but it's going to be a discount array. Whatever that discount array is that I'm really wanting to buy at, if the price stops just short of it or above it. and just hangs around and hovers or starts to move up a little bit.
It gives the false bottom a fake low. I won't buy that. I'm going to wait and see if they're going to run down and kill those early bulls because when it creates that short term low ahead of the level I want to be buying at, everyone that bought it is going to have their stop loss in the form of a sell stop right below that short term low. And I know that if it's going to down.
If it's going to go down to that lower time frame discount array, not lower time frame, but lower in terms of price, in other words, going lower than it has already, it reaches into a deeper discount. I should say it that way. I'm going to wait for it. And this is where patience pays because you're impatient because you don't know what you're looking for. I'm patient many times in price trading because I know what I'm looking for.
Now. I may be impatient with people's impatience and wanting to learn this, but I am absolutely very patient when it comes to looking for what I'm trading off of in price. I know what I'm specifically looking for, which is why I don't get emotional in my analysis. I don't get emotional in my trading because I'm looking for specific things. And if I don't get it, I won't act.
In this case, I want to see a low form ahead of an anticipated level in terms of a discount. So say there's a. fair value gap that I expect to see fill. And price comes down, but it doesn't quite get there and starts to rally a little bit.
I'm going to wait and see if they use that as a sucker play and then run one more time lower. When they do, I know those sell stops are going to be triggered. That's sell-side liquidity hitting the marketplace in the form of sellers at the market.
Smart money will accumulate that and offset, accumulate those stops. I buy down there at the discounted rate because now I have a better feeling that price should rally because it's... taken out stops. It went to my logical discount array, and this is turtle suit.
This is when turtle suit works. If you could go back and watch any work that Linda does, Linda Rashkin, where she teaches this pattern in her book with Larry Connors. If you can get any work off of YouTube on her, I used to be able to watch some videos where she talked about it.
She didn't build any more detail outside of what was shared in the book. But when you look at that and then you apply what I just explained here, it takes the pattern to a whole different level. And the bullish pattern number three, which is just basically the same pattern I've just shown you, but in the event that I did not get that entry down there on a turtle suit, which is the reason why I tell you, don't worry about it.
Don't regret it. Don't sit there and beat yourself up about it. If you can't get that level down there, fine.
This is the pattern that I use. I'd wait for price to rally through the short-term high, and now that short-term high becomes a bullish breaker. When price trades back down to the breaker, I'm going to use that as my entry because I know that that stock run at the lower low, price should not come back down there.
So there won't most usually isn't going to be a retracement down into a order block where the buy level is. So there may be a down-closed candle down there, obviously. In many instances, many folks will look.
for price to trade back down there and get to that order block. That's going to be below the breaker. It's already been down there and it's done its work. So price is going to support around that bullish breaker. So I'm going to look at that level as my entry point.
Now in that impulse leg from where it says buy level up to the high and it pulls back down into the missed entry or pyramiding. That impulse leg rate inside that upper portion of it as it trades from the bullish breaker. there's going to be a portion of price action in a lower time frame.
So this is a, say this is a four hour chart or an hourly chart. In this portion of the range here, That's going to be a lower internal range liquidity or optimal trade entry. You won't see it like this, but on a lower time frame, it'll be an optimal trade entry. And it'll trade into a lower time frame bullish order block or a lower time frame discount array like a fair value gap. And then price will expand.
But you overlap with that bullish breaker seen here. Now, this is a pattern that is universal. Every pattern I'm showing you is universal. It can be seen on a monthly, a weekly, a daily, a four hour, one hour, 30 minute, 15 minute, two minute chart, one minute chart.
It's universal. This is what I trade off of. So if I see this pattern on a higher time frame, then I start reducing it down and looking for the fractal of it just in a small time frame. So then I look for that either as a new position entry because I missed the first one or if I went long down on that lower run on sell stops.
or turtle sweep entry. If I got that one on, if I want to add to that position and pyramid, say I bought two down in the low end, say I want to add another, I can do it now when it trades to that bullish breaker. So I can now pyramid there. Or say I'm hefty and I've got a pretty good size on. Say I got 20 contracts or 20 lots on at the low end on a turtle sweep long.
I can add 10 now at that higher buy level off the bullish breaker and feel confident that it's not going to go down into that internal range liquidity. because it's already done its work running the stops. So it's not going to be an optimal trade entry from the buy level, the lower level of the discount array.
It's not going to retrace down into some discount array there because it's already ran the stops. And it's going to want to move quickly away from that area and start pricing for premium. Now, I've covered essentially just two patterns. It's the external range liquidity or turtle soup or internal range liquidity, which is optimal trade entry. I've shown you how if I got it wrong on the.
turtle soup and I miss it, I can now use the bullish breaker to get in sync with it. So I have a contingency plan for both patterns. It's either going to be an internal range liquidity, optimal trade entry, fair value plays what that is, or it's going to be external range liquidity run, or basically it's turtle soup. If I missed the turtle soup, then I'm going to wait for it to go to the bullish breaker.
That's it. It's the same two patterns. but just being applied in a very specific, detailed way of doing it. If I don't see price doing these three things, I don't do anything.
I don't do anything. If I can't see it in price, then I don't touch it. Period.
If it doesn't look this clear to me in price, I do not trade. Now, what does that mean for you? The same.
Whatever your pattern is. If you don't see it in price, you don't trade because it won't give you the context to operate in. You've got to know where your risk is.
You have to know where price is going. And all this is is the setup. This is not targeting.
Targeting is what we just covered in the beginning of this presentation where we went down from four-hour into average daily range projections. All those things get you to your target. Because I cannot give you a recipe that gives you every scenario.
This answers everything. It's going to be average daily range plus three standard deviations of central bank dealer's range and five of Asian range and 14 of flout. That's what you're wanting. I know that's what you want, and that's what I wanted.
But I've soon learned early on in my career that there's no recipe for that. You have to blend these things and keep working. That's why it's hard because it's not just simply plug and play.
Everybody thinks they're going to be able to plug in my concepts and automate them. They're not going to. There's too many variables.
You have to think. You have to be able to think about what you're looking for and how they overlap. You're never going to be able to automate all my things.
It won't happen. And that's why I don't think that anyone I've ever taught has been able to do it either. And I've talked to some really, really educated people. I've talked to quants. I've talked to, you know, algorithmic guys.
And believe me, they have. tried to do very much what you're probably thinking right now. I'm going to go through this mentorship and I'm going to create an automatic trader.
You're going to get some kind of EA developed from it. No, you might be able to get a concept here and there automated, but you're never going to automate the whole process. It won't work like that.
Now, because I have these three specific criteria that I'm looking for, but it's just two patterns. I have a buy program, a sell program, and I have, if I get it wrong, program. what I'm looking for. Think about that.
I have a concept that gets me long, gets me short, and I have a concept that if I miss an opportunity, On one pattern, it gives me a contingency plan. Now, these are the buy side, and I kind of spoke ahead of myself there because we haven't really gone through the sell side stuff. So let's go to the next one, and I can build on that same comment I just made.
Okay, this is ICT bearish pattern number one, and the condition is obviously higher time frame is bearish. And the stage or pattern is this. Price bounces off of a higher time frame premium array. An impulse swing creates a fair value gap.
near the swing high. A short-term high forms in the market structure and fails to drop lower after equal lows or a lower low is formed. Price rallies up into the fair value gap and above a short-term high forming after the impulse swing forms.
Buy stops are triggered. Smart money uses offset distribution to pair short entries with buy stop rate premium entry. Alright, so again this is another fair value trade or optimal trade entry.
If you see a bullish order block and a fair value gap as price trades away, there's going to be ideally a short term high in the timeframe you're looking for in this pattern. Price will try to go lower or fail to go lower and then rally back above that short term high, closing in the fair value gap, trading back up to the bullish order block, and that sell level is where optimal trade entry would be. after the buy stops are ran out on a previous short-term high.
If you use the high of the order block or whatever the highest high is at that swing high down to the lower swing that failed to go much lower before come back and hit the fair value gap. That's your impulse swing and the retracement back up to the sell side level or entry is the bearish order block. So the pattern just in reverse of what we saw the ICT bullish pattern number one is I'm selling short a bearish order block. I'm looking at a bearish order block, which is a bullish up close candle near a high.
Price gaps down only sell side delivery and price creates a fair value gap. Then it creates a short-term high just underneath the fair value gap, which defines the support of the fair value gap. And then price tries to make an attempt to go lower or fails to go lower. It doesn't make a difference to me, but rallies back up above that short-term high.
Once it closes the fair value gap and hits the bearish order block, that's your sell. After those buy stops are triggered, buy liquidity is going to hit the market. Smart Money is going to sell into that, pair up their orders, and the market expands going down to the lower end.
So you would be seeking some discount as a objective. This is my favorite bearish pattern, and this is bearish pattern number two. And again, the condition is higher timeframe bearish. The stage is, or setup is, price is going to bounce prior to a higher timeframe premium array. In other words, you're expecting the price to come up a little bit higher, but it just falls short of it.
Now, everyone else is going to get frustrated and chase price when it starts to drop. Not you, not me, not anybody in this mentorship. We're going to wait for price to rally higher into the anticipated higher timeframe premium array and raise the buy stop liquidity pool. Buy stops are going to be triggered.
Smart money uses offset distribution to pair short entries with buy stop rate. It's a premium entry ICT classic turtle soup entry. Now, again, this is just the opposite of what I showed as pattern number two when it's bullish.
It's just basically a turtle soup sell. But all of the things that I'm looking for that make it a turtle soup. See, everyone used to ask, how do you know it's going to stop when it goes above the L high?
Because you have to know the PDA ray matrix for that time frame you're looking at. Where are the PDA rays? What's the higher time frame?
Obviously, we're in a bearish market environments when we're looking for this. So I'll give you a scenario Let's assume for a moment. This is London.
It's been going lower. It's now Wednesday We have a high then we started to drop down and it started rallying back up Okay, we run through that high at London open There's your turtle soup entry. It runs out by stops.
Price didn't trade up to a premium rate, a deep enough retracement for you that you really want to key off of. Maybe it's on a four-hour chart that you see this on, and you can anticipate that expansion down the whole four-hour unfolding based on what you see here. But it's going to occur during London, or it could happen in New York. Say London is consolidation, and there's a news event that comes out. in the 8.30 New York Open.
price runs up on that news, hits that premium rate, and then you can sell short there and then get in sync with a nice day trade. Or many times, New York, if it's reversing, it can be a little bit longer term of a move. Okay, and ICT bearish pattern number three, it's on the same idea that we were looking for the turtle soup.
But we're going to say for argument's sake that we were not or I was not able to get positioned on that run above the buy stops. So. that run above that short-term high, tripping out buy stops, reaching the premium array that price was, and we were anticipating price to trade up to, but didn't do it on its first attempt, then it finally trades up to it, that's where I want to sell, but let's place devil's advocate for a moment and say I couldn't get it on, and price trades down through the breaker.
Once the breaker is traded back up to, I can look to sell short there because my confidence level is very strong because the breaker has done its job, it ran the buy stops, and And price will not want to give them opportunity to go back up to that level. And don't think at this moment there's going to be an optimal trade entry near where it says the sell level, the higher premium array. That high down to the low prior to the secondary sell level, that won't be a range that needs to be retraced back to. A lot of folks get that screwed up thinking that they're going to have that range close in and get a retracement.
They won't go that deep. Usually it's the breaker that stops it, and that's why I want to sell there. Now, if I was fortunate enough to get short at the higher premium array. I can look at that bearish breaker as an opportunity to pyramid. So if I went short 10 at the higher premium array, now I can sell short 5 at the bearish breaker and pyramid my position.
So now I've covered, again, all three of the bullish and all three of the bearish patterns. But again, it's primarily just two patterns, internal range liquidity, optimal trade entry, trading back to fair value. That's all that is. or external range liquidity, turtle soup, running out stops, and fading that move. You can see now, without understanding the PDR matrix and understanding how we work from a higher time frame down to a lower time frame, with those same ideas and using institutional order flow and market structure, you will never be consistent with my concepts. That's why folks that have gone through the tutorials, they get frustrated because it's lacking clear, definitive.
Rule based ideas. And I did that intentionally. All those tutorials were out there to see if I can get someone else to duplicate what I was able to do.
Nobody has done it. Even in a mentorship, they have not done it. So looking at what we've covered, we've gone through a whole spectrum of different things. That is a very fresh view on technical analysis.
A lot of things look similar to everyone outside the group. Looks like supplying the man to me. Looks like white golf to me.
Looks like. Elliot waved to me. No, I'm just kidding.
Nothing looks like Elliot waving here. But there's similarities because obviously we're looking at one thing or another. It's support or resistance.
The problem is, where is support? If it's so easy we can draw a line underneath a low, okay, that should be all there is. But it's not that easy, is it?
Which support level are you going to buy at? Because if you look at all these different timeframes, which one's going to matter? Well, use a higher timeframe. Sure. Even then you got problems.
You have to to deal with falling short of the level or going beyond the level. How much of it are you going to allow and what do you do with that information? So when we look at price, we refine it from an institutional standpoint, knowing that our demo account or our live account is going to have slightly skewed pricing. So from an intraday standpoint, we could look at a range of maybe 10 to 15 pips off of interbank pricing. And that's why that's a little bit more risk.
terms of day trading because you're already building in this range or spread that you don't even know about unless you understand that the interbank level pricing isn't what we get quoted through our broker they add another premium on top of that okay so there's a spread on top of the spread so that makes it difficult and they can work that spread in their favor it can open it up to take your stop when they get near a low or an old high because that's where your stop is like everybody else is and they won't let that spread help you when it's beneficial for you. And you know what I mean by that if you've been trading with live funds. So it's amazing how you don't see that problem when you're doing demo, but as soon as you get a live account, you'll see the spread effect then. So here we have that situation just reversed with the bullish pattern number three. We want to be using that bearish breaker as either a pyramiding entry or a secondary entry.
or this is our best opportunity to trade in this current market structure. And don't expect that premium array cell level and the low prior to that retrace back to the breaker, that range down. Don't anticipate that being closed in or retraced back to for optimal trade entry.
Because to do so, you're completely avoiding and ignoring the bearish breaker that's staring you right in your face. So when I go through charts, the first thing I'm looking for in all my time frames is where are the breakers? Because once I understand that, that gives me immediate context to work within. Now, I can still screw it up and you've seen me do it a couple of times using the breaker in live session.
But when I'm wrong, it gives me immediate feedback and then I can get in sync with the marketplace again. So losing just gives you a premium insight. Don't try to fight that. You can't.
You cannot win that battle. You're going to lose. You're going to lose in demo.
You're going to lose in live funds. Don't fight that. Take the information it gives you as a premium in terms of insight.
Now we're going to go over to the gold market, and I'm going to recap something that saves me the trouble of going into the case studies and also gives me an application of what you've been taught in the mentorship. I told you this move was going to take place. I told you what to expect. And during the live session, you guys that were there live, when I prompted you, you all pretty much, about 80% of you, had immediately targeted where the setup was going to be at as soon as I prompted you.
So that to me is encouraging as a teacher, as your mentor, you're able to take the information I'm giving you. It's been translated in a manner where you can understand it and then you could see it without me pointing to it. Because once I'd actually pointed to it, everybody said, oh, yeah, yeah, that's that's where it was. And 80 percent of you already knew, at least by response in the live sessions commentary. When you guys can send me a question, most of you, that 80 percent, we're all saying the same thing.
As we go to gold market, you'll see what I mean. So let's go over there and to the charts and we'll close this session out. Okay, folks, we have the gold market. This is a four-hour chart. And this past week when we did live sessions, I gave you a very clear, easy condition stage execution format for using the information I've taught you this entire 12 months.
And I was asked to do gold. And we went through the monthly and we went through the daily. and I'll let you watch the recordings this week. It was actually done on August 23rd. So if you want to watch the recording it's usually found around the 1 hour and 30 minute mark of part 2 if I'm not mistaken.
Part 2, 1 hour and 30 minutes. You'll hear me go over the breakdown on gold. So we're going to look at the gold market here and at the time of the recording we were looking for the outline of it being bullish.
So I'm going to frame here as the beginning of the 23rd. And we were outlining the fact that the market has to trade lower for us to pick up a discount array. And we had a low here and we had a low here. So we're going to outline this.
Here we have a low here. and we have to see price trade down to a discount. We can't trade it going long while it's going up on our 4-hour if our time frame is looking for a discount. So we have to wait for the trade lower. So we're going to go down to an hourly chart and use this reference point right here.
Go down to an hourly. Okay, and so now on an hourly chart we have this low and now we have this gap right here only The buy side was offered here. No sell side delivery was offered here. So we're going to put our horizontal line here Okay, so we have only an area or range where buy side was offered. So between 1280 and 12 78. Okay, two handles only buy side offered.
Prior to this gap, what's the next downside discount array? It's this high here. So if price was given up all this range went lower, the first one it comes to is going to be this swing high or this swing high. We're going to use this swing high.
It's the higher. It's a swing high because it has a lower high to the left and a lower high to the right. And the next one below that would be here.
So it would be discount array here, then another discount array here, then the order block in here. All moving away and below that fair value gap. So we're using PDArrayMatrix here. And now we're going to use this. Our stop would have to be below this level.
So we're going to make this. red and we're thickening up a little bit. But not with that we put it right here. So we identify a discount array we're trying to buy at and we protect it with a stop below the next discount array, which is here. So our stop needs to be below 1276 and this whole candle it's low is a little bit below that.
So in this instance, we have to go below it. So the candle we create the premium on, it's all one candle. We don't want to see it spike down through that.
So the next discount array would be this one here. So its high is $12.75. So I would refine my stop level to this.
It's got to be $12.75 and below. So we could be a buyer down here if it comes down and fills the gap. and our protective stop has to be below $12.75.
So we'll use $12.74. Okay protective stop entry is in here. It would be a run on sell stops and trading on external range liquidity for this low but internal range liquidity for this low to this high. So we have to be a buyer at discount.
And we're going to look to pair that up with a premium array. So we have to see it trade down below this low. That would be an external range liquidity run.
And we could couple that with an internal range liquidity run here. So we have a low up to high. And you see me do this in the live session.
And it gives us optimal trade entry right down here. Here's the 70.5 level, 79 centration level. And our stock's going to have to be below that.
but the fair value gap is here so we have this area 62 down to 79 right here and the sweet spot of that is here so we're going to say this is the actual entry with the overlap of 70.5 because it could spread just past the gap or we can do 78 and that closes the gap and We may allow the spreading to the 70.5 level or sweet spot optimal trade entry. So we're looking to go long at 1278 and stop is 1274 and we'll be looking for any premium array but we have to look at it after the market starts to trade down. So here's our low.
We wanted to see it go down into the fair value gap but it didn't do that. So what did it do? It stopped short. Now we're rallying up. Are we buying it here?
No we're not. Price goes up closes in a fair value gap here right in here and let's see if it starts to sell off. trades down and then sells off, trades back up into short-term high. The whole time we have the plan of buying down here. Here's the fair value gap.
So we're going to take this and just scoot this on over here a little bit. There you go, just like that. in the stock level here okay and price hits 12.90 in here bear shoulder block runs a short-term high right in here it spikes up first runs the highs runs these highs trades down into the gap So we go long at 1278, protective stop. 1274 never hit. Pick up a discount array.
Buying sell stops below these lows and here. Price rallies up immediately back up and this is where we're sitting at now. So now looking at price if we miss this opportunity like some of you most likely did we can now use the breaker to get long. Now the question is where is the breaker? We have this high.
prior to this low. We have this in here, but it's not as defined. And it's this one here is lower than this one. And we've traded above this high. So now what I would err on is I would say these candles here are going to be the breaker.
So as long as we're buying inside this range extended in time, this could be a good area to be a buyer for gold. So we could see it pick up and rally again. Using what I've taught you in this example here, we talked about this in advance. So when I was questioned, it literally took me minutes to explain and show it to you and outline it. And all the things we went through for these four teachings seems like a lot.
And it seems like it would take you forever to go through. It doesn't. You watch me go through the charts and within minutes, I've already got an idea of what I want to do, where I think price is going to go, how it should react.
And this is one more example. I gave it to you in the end this week. I gave it to you. The euro we missed two runs on, but eventually euro gave it to us and on Friday. So the long and short is you have all the components to make your own trading plan with what's been taught to you.
I've given you mine. I've showed you mine. And I've held back nothing. I promise you there's no secret nothing. I've given you everything I know as it relates to how I look at Forex, how I work in this demo account, show you where it's going to go beforehand, and you see when it fails.
Now, when it's right, it's really, really accurate. When it's wrong, it's wrong. It's nothing I can say about it.
It is what it is. I told you up front, I can't be perfect. You're never going to be perfect.
So give yourself permission to be so. You don't want to have all that weight on your shoulders thinking that you have to know everything. You don't.
You need to be right once in a while and be more right than you are wrong. And if you are able to do that, your career is brilliant ahead of you. And I can't wait to hear all your stories and what you do is success. Now, this does not by any means complete our mentorship content because there's a lot of subtle little.
nuances I want to talk about the final week of our live sessions and recordings. I got a handful of topical studies I want to throw at you too and I'm going to give you the stock one on the last trading day because I want to go through how I go through the IBD to pick out the stocks I like and then I'll end it with the Greeks on options because it goes together in one teaching and I'll give you a short synopsis on the top down for bonds and short synopsis top down on S&P and the commodities. There will be a respective topical studies each day next week, and they'll be short and sweet.
So I've had so much fun teaching this stuff to you guys. It's been a lot of work. It's been very, very draining in terms of the energy just needed to do it.
I had to deal with some people in the beginning that are no longer with us, thankfully, but I'm confident. I'm 100% confident that if you put the work into what I've shown you, how I've outlined it, where to look for the information, when to look for the information, and what its use is, I promise everything that you've ever aspired to do as a trader and how you wanted to operate in technicals and price, you have it now. There's no speed bumps, okay, that turn into brick walls. It's brick walls have been reduced to speed bumps now. It's no mountain in front of you.
You have everything to your advantage that I didn't have. I've shown you everything that has worked for me when I can do analysis and I can pick the market moves. All those things that lend well to me doing that, you've been taught. There's no secret teaching in 2018 or in the future.
There's no book being written by me that didn't include anything. It is, as I promised, everything that I know and that I do in technicals. I've taught you all the other asset classes.
everything I know about them. I wish there was more. I wish I could keep digging deeper and finding new ways to expound on all this stuff. But you have reached the end and you have basically got to everything that makes ICT ICT, except for the topical studies and a few little things I want to talk about as we close this month out.
You all have it now. So it's been my pleasure to be your mentor. I'm so thankful for the ones that have held out and really put in the work and time that's necessary. But you still have a lot of time and a lot of work ahead of you.
You have your own model to build based on all this information. And it's limitless. It absolutely is limitless.
And I cannot wait to hear back from each one of you telling me what you did with it, how you formed your plan, and how you're trading with it. So until the future, I wish you good luck and good trading.