Demographic Transition

Introduction

• Describes changes in a country's population over time.
• Transition from high birth/death rates to low birth/death rates.
• Population stabilization often in industrialized countries.

Growth Rate Concept

• Measures population change over time.
• Formula:
  • Initial Population: 1 million
  • Additions: Births + Immigration (e.g., 20,000 births + 50,000 immigrants)
  • Subtractions: Deaths + Emigration (e.g., 15,000 deaths + 5,000 emigrants)
  • End Population: 1,050,000
  • Growth Rate: ((End Population - Initial Population) / Initial Population) * 100*

Reasons for Positive Growth Rate

• Economic benefits of larger families.
• Government incentives for children (e.g., Japan).
• Religious and cultural influences promoting large families.

Demographic Transition Model: Five Stages

Stage 1

• High birth rates and high death rates.
• Limited birth control and economic benefit from large families.
• Characterized by a high stationary population pyramid.
• Prevalent until the 18th century.

Stage 2

• Population rises as death rates drop due to health advances, sanitation, and food availability.
• Birth rates remain high.
• Example: Western Europe during the 19th century Industrial Revolution.
• Modeled by an early expanding population pyramid.

Stage 3

• Continued drop in death rates and beginning decline in birth rates.
• Influences: Birth control access, social trends, healthcare improvements, industrialization, laws against child labor.
• Example: Countries in South America and the Middle East.
• Illustrated by a late expanding population pyramid.

Stage 4

• Low birth and death rates, stabilizing population.
• Factors: Contraception, women's workforce participation, career-focused couples.
• Example: United States, Australia.
• Represented by a low stationary pyramid.

Stage 5 (Speculative)

• Multiple theories:
  • Malthusian: Resource shortages could stabilize or decrease population.
  • Negative Growth Rate: More deaths than births leading to a constrictive population pyramid.
  • Anti-Malthusian: Industrialization and better living standards leading to smaller families.
  • Potential for population growth due to high living standards.
• Possible outcomes: Stabilization, decline, further growth, or even space colonization.

Conclusion

• Demographic transition reflects shifts due to industrialization and socio-economic changes.
• Future outcomes of population trends remain uncertain.