Lecture: Power in the 21st Century

Introduction

• Key Point: Power is changing in the 21st century.
• Two Types of Power Changes:
  • Power Transition: Shift of power among states (West to East).
  • Power Diffusion: Shift of power from states to non-state actors.

Power Transition

• Rise of Asia:
  • More accurately, the recovery or return of Asia.
  • Historical context: In 1800, Asia had more than half the world’s population and product.
  • By 1900, Asia's contribution shrank due to the Industrial Revolution.
  • In 21st century: Asia is regaining economic prominence.
• Current Narrative:
  • Rise of China and perceived decline of the United States.
  • Cycles of belief in American decline have occurred throughout history (e.g., Sputnik, oil embargo).
  • Projections (e.g., Goldman Sachs) predict China surpassing the U.S. economy by 2027.
  • Caution against oversimplified projections: Economic size vs. per capita income and sophistication.

Power Diffusion

• Concept: Falling costs in computing and communications democratize power.
  • Example: Communication capabilities once limited to wealthy entities are now accessible to individuals.
• Impact:
  • Non-state actors play significant roles (e.g., Oxfam, Al Qaeda).
  • Traditional concepts like interstate war are complicated by non-state threats (e.g., privatization of war).

Understanding Power

• Definition: Ability to affect others to achieve desired outcomes.
  • Methods: Coercion (sticks), payments (carrots), and attraction (soft power).
• Soft Power:
  • Importance of non-coercive influence.
  • Necessity for a New Narrative:
    • Not just military power but whose story prevails.

Power Distribution in the World

• Three-Dimensional Chess Game:
  • Top Board (Military): U.S. as the sole superpower.
  • Middle Board (Economic): Multi-polar power among U.S., Europe, China, Japan.
  • Bottom Board (Transnational): Issues like climate change and pandemics require cooperative solutions.

Positive Sum vs Zero Sum

• Power as Positive Sum:
  • Benefits of cooperative gains (e.g., China’s energy security aids global climate efforts).
• Mix of Hard and Soft Power:
  • Strategies of smart power are essential.

Conclusion

• Global Public Goods:
  • Need for cooperation and producing benefits shared by all.
• Smart Power Approach:
  • Combining hard and soft power to address global challenges.
• Good News: Potential for constructive global cooperation exists.

Final Note: Emphasizes the need for a new narrative combining hard and soft power for smart power strategies.