Exploring ICT Silver Bullet Trading Strategies

Well welcome back folks. Alright so we're going to be talking about my ICT Silver Bullet trade setup which is a time-based algorithmic trading model for all ISAT classes. Alright before I get into it let's discuss ticks, points, and pips and the relationship to Forex to futures. For an ICT Silver bullet trade, the minimum trade framework should be 10 points or 40 ticks for index futures or indices. The minimum trade framework should be 15 pips for forex payers, for forex traders. Now, an amplification of that is this. Framework is the best case price delivery that you expect to see. Not underscore not. your actual trade entry to exit range. So in other words, if everything were to be perfect, and you're not trying to be perfect with your entry, you're not trying to be perfect with your exit, if the entirety of the move that you foresee is likely to unfold next in whatever asset class you're trading, that range is the framework. But you're going to be looking for a trade within that that doesn't demand you to have the highest degree of entry precision or exit precision. Over time you'll get better with both those entry and exit, but now using a model you want to have something that's a little bit more forgiving. So for index futures, if you're trading indices, the minimum framework is it has to at least offer the potential for 10 points or 10 handles, which is equivalent to 40 ticks. The same would be said for forex. The framework should be a minimum of 15 pips for the pair you're trying to trade. So if you can't work out a range move at least 15 pips, the trade is probably not high probability. It would be better suited to be left alone and let it pass. Look elsewhere. 10 handles for indices is the same to me as 20 pips in Forex. 5 handles for indices is the same to me as 10 pips in Forex. So many times with my tweets or comments in my videos and whatnot, folks that reach out to me through TradingView, the messaging system they have there, I ignore a majority of everyone that sends me messages at TradingView. I just get too many of them. And the question that keeps popping up recently is if I'm teaching predominantly presently at the time in 2023 in the YouTube mentorship, which is free by the way. The question is, if I'm looking for five handles of price movement in the E-mini S&P, what would that translate for those that are trading Forex? That would be the equivalent of 10 pips. If I'm looking for 10 handles in indices and we're trading stock index futures, if you're a Forex trader, you would be looking for the equivalent of 20 pips in your Forex pair. So that way there's the relationship between the two. These are essential frameworks to what I deem high probability ICT Silver Bullet trade setups. All right, so let's talk about, and this is really the gem of this presentation really, types of ICT Silver Bullet setups. Now, the framework for many ICT Silver Bullet setups are as follows, but they're not limited to previous day high or low. draw on liquidity, meaning yesterday's high, if we're bullish, there's going to be buy stops or buy side liquidity resting above that. We would be looking for a run to previous day's high. That expansion is the draw on liquidity for buy side. Vice versa, if we are bearish, we're expecting lower prices throughout the week and we see the previous day's low as having sell side liquidity or sell stops below it. So we would look for potential setups that would expand down into that liquidity. Previous session highs and lows as draws on liquidity, meaning that let's say you're sitting down in front of the charts and it's the AM session in New York. You would look at the high and or low of the London session that just passed and look to a run on liquidity or retest of those old lows or highs. previous weekly high or low as a draw on liquidity. If we're bullish we would look for a run above the previous week's high or if we're bearish we would look for a run below the previous week's low. Another would be returning to a current or old new week opening gap so that would be treated as a draw on liquidity or an expansion away from the current or old new week opening gap. And a classic ICT optimal trade entry, which has been for the longest time while doing this YouTube channel. That's always been the classic flagship pattern, but now we've seen many more models and approaches, so it can't be referred to as the flagship pattern anymore. I think the fair value gap has taken the throne there. Confluence of the 2022 ICT mentorship YouTube model, which I taught for free on this YouTube channel, meaning that... Your draw on liquidity could be an inefficiency above the marketplace when we're bullish or an inefficiency below the price when we're bearish. Which means that if we're bearish, we could be aiming for a discount buy-side imbalance, sell-side inefficiency, or some measure of fair value gap that would be below current price action. That would be your draw when bearish. Or if you're bullish, you would be looking for an inefficiency above current price action, which would be many times in the form of a SIBI or sell-side imbalance, buy-side inefficiency. or variant of fair value gap above current price action. So you can treat that or as I mentioned all the previous ones above number seven here all of them being equally available in terms of probability if it is in the market at the time. Not all of these are going to be a factor. You know there have been times where the previous week's high has already been rated that morning Looking at it again may not be the ideal scenario. So it might require you to look at a higher time frame liquidity pool or inefficiency above price if you're bullish. So I could list a myriad of different scenarios, but I think this list is good enough to give the students of my YouTube channel a great deal of latitude. So that way you can look at the. potential for any one of these situations. Not all of them will exist. On any given day, not all of these will be in the charts, but most days, one of these criteria will be in play. Don't take my word for it. Go back through your price action. You'll see what I'm saying here is in fact true. Obviously, the main emphasis is determining the next most likely draw in the price action. So where is the price likely to go to next? That's the number one goal. for all of my students is to focus on that skill set first because all the entries and the accents and such that is the least important thing because you don't know where price is trying to go to from the time you're sitting and looking at your charts and whatever analysis concept you use is probably gonna fail you all right let's talk about our first ICT silver bullet setup in the time in which it forms now again this is a time-based model That means these things are linked to a specific 60 minute interval or window in time. Every single trading day, this pattern will form. It may not be in the Forex pair that you're trading. It may not be in the futures contract that you're trading. It may not be in the asset that you are specifically looking at, but it does form every single day. First. setup time is 3 a.m. to 4 a.m. Now we're always referring to New York local time. So whenever I'm referring to a specific time, whether it be a window of time or a very specific time of the day, you have to have your charts calibrated to New York local time. Wherever that is, whenever that is in your area, if we're observing daylight savings time, then you observe daylight savings time. So that way it removes all the uncertainty, the confusion, whatever it is in New York, that local time. That's what you're using when you're charting. This is the London Open Silver Bullet. So what we're looking for is a classic ICT fair value gap to form between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. New York local time. The factor at which you are going to lean heavily on is the skill set of knowing where price is going to go to. Okay, and it's not necessarily the bias, you just predominantly have to consider where the next draw on liquidity is is it going to go above the marketplace for buy stops or trade into inefficiency above current price action if you're bullish in this case the market was bearish it was looking to go lower and there was obvious sell side liquidity pool resting below that old swing low and between three o'clock and four the market created a fair value gap we had a shift in market structure below this low here so this is your classic what Optimal trade entry fair value gap here the market shows the willingness to support this idea with the body staying inside that gap See that now at 4 a.m. It does pump more time just above it, but that's fine It would have never stopped me out with the rules I teach with all of my models here So I see the optimal trade entry the idea for this would be to look for a minimum of what market is this? It's a futures contract, so that means does it offer the potential for 10 handles? So from here down to here, trading below this low, not just to the low, but to it and through it. So it's reasonable to anticipate a potential run of 10 handles. We don't require that, but going short inside that fair value gap, the formation of the ICT silver bullet, the entry. is taken inside of that 60 minute window between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. It does not mean that the trade is entered and is exited in the same 60 minute window. In other words, your trade many times will be held over the 4 o'clock hour and into 5 o'clock in the morning and maybe even rolling over into the New York session opening at 7, 8 o'clock New York local time. But in this instance, we would be aiming for this low in the sell-sell equity. resting below it. So does it offer from this entry here down to here at least five handles for you to book in profit? It does so. The framework was, could it get to 10? It could do 10. We don't require that. Shorting at the fair value gap, covering at the old low allows for at least five handles. And that's what the ICT silver bullet is. This is my actual. model for my son Cameron. Alright, the second one in our continuing list of ICT Silver Bullet setups is the AM session. Now this one is focusing on the 10 a.m. To 11 a.m. Always New York local time and let's take a closer look at this one now. Okay, so we are looking at the E-mini SMP once more. And the idea is between 10 a.m. New York local time and 11 a.m. We wait for when the market's bearish. Relative equal lows. There's sell side resting below that. We have a fair value gap. Bearish. Fair value gap. It trades up into it between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock. We can sell short there. Does it offer 10 handles? Well, from 41.46 or thereabouts to 41.36. that range doesn't even get us down into this low let alone below that one so it obviously meets the criteria of a minimum of 10 handles in framework it does not mean you're trying to get 10 handles it just means that it offers 10 handles so going short here collecting five handles that could have been done inside of the scope of that 60 minute window not that you're trying to do that as I mentioned briefly moments ago the trade is many times held in duration longer than the window that the framework and entry is derived from. So it's not a in and out within the same hour. It means that you're looking for the setup to form to get you into the trade within the scope of 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock New York time. All right. And finally, we have our last ICT silver bullet here, which is framed on 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. New York local time and this is the PM session I see silver bullet setup in this one here we can see that we traded down into a higher time frame 15 minute discount fair value gap and you're encouraged to go into your charts to see that is in fact what we have here market trades down into it shifts higher a swing has been broken to the upside so we have a shift in market structure and a fair value gap so Any retracements back down into that, look at the bodies staying inside that. The wicks do the damage, but the body's telling you the narrative. The story is told by the bodies. So it's telling you it's respecting this buy side and balance sell side inefficiency or fair value gap. Going into 2 o'clock, we rallied and we created a small little fair value gap there. The market drops down into that before taking out the relative equal highs buy side liquidity and or returning back to a premium sell side and balance buy side inefficiency or fair value gap that would be above the market here and here. So if it's going to rally here, the free market could be on the optimal trade entry here. And taking the first fair-buy gap that forms inside of and reprices to between 2 o'clock and 3 o'clock. That's happening right there. So from here all the way up to here, does that offer 10 handles? Yes, it's actually offering 12 or more. So this entry here is a high probability condition that lends well to a run into inefficiency in the premium and to take buy side out as well. So that is a very handsome run there. and trading between 2 o'clock and 3 o'clock. Now some closing thoughts. If you're new to my channel and you're seeing this, you don't have enough to trade this pattern. So you have to backtest it while you're learning how to read price action and determine where the next draw on liquidity is going to be for the next price swing, for whatever asset class you're trading. So don't be discouraged if it seems like it's just cherry-picked, and there it is because I actually traded many of these. types of setups either with calling it out on twitter or mentioning it in passing while actually doing executions and recording it so these patterns these things form and i called a few of them real time on twitter last week and many of you much to my disapproval because i don't like when you take the setups at a trade setup signal i don't want you to view it like that But many of the followers on my Twitter feed actually showed they took the trade I called out with using a silver bullet. So the pattern works. It's highly, highly consistent. It's extremely high probability when you have all these factors in mind. And they are present in price action. It gives you a rule-based idea to look for a time-based model. So time and price is being utilized here, which is where the focus of my... analysis concepts and teaching as a mentor teaching my students how to find something that repeats You can't get anything better than having a specific 60-minute window of opportunity that forms every single trading day every single trading day one of these setups are going to form now if you don't have a plethora of markets to follow Ideally one or two at best while you're first learning how to do it even if you grow to a point of interest where you have a lot of markets that you're trading a lot of pairs or a lot of futures markets and such, you'll find that over time, the longer your career will be, your list will reduce down to one or two, at worst, maybe three if you want to be a deviant. But my advice is for you to be a specialist, try to focus on one market because if you can do that, one of these specific ICT silver bullet setups will form every single day. Meaning that if you just follow one market, just one market. you can get your setups there you can make your bread and butter you can make your ends meet you'll have losing trades okay it's going to happen but by far and large you can do things with one market and if you don't get the setup in london you wait for it in the am session if you don't get it there you wait for it in the pm session but every single market every single trading day will offer one of these so you have to be disciplined you have to focus and look for these ideas to form in price action and should you do that you'll need to look at nothing further than this. You don't need to go into any other models. You don't need to go into any other teachings. You don't have to come back to my YouTube channel. You'll never have to do any of that stuff anymore because you'll be independently minded and your analysis will be uniquely yours. You won't have to look at external sources like me or someone else to provide that to you. You'll trust yourself, which is a very empowering state of mind. And that's always been my target and goal with all of my students. So hopefully you found this one insightful and I'll talk to you next time. Be safe.

The minimum trade framework should be 15 pips for forex payers, for forex traders. Now, an amplification of that is this. Framework is the best case price delivery that you expect to see.

Not underscore not. your actual trade entry to exit range. So in other words, if everything were to be perfect, and you're not trying to be perfect with your entry, you're not trying to be perfect with your exit, if the entirety of the move that you foresee is likely to unfold next in whatever asset class you're trading, that range is the framework.

But you're going to be looking for a trade within that that doesn't demand you to have the highest degree of entry precision or exit precision. Over time you'll get better with both those entry and exit, but now using a model you want to have something that's a little bit more forgiving. So for index futures, if you're trading indices, the minimum framework is it has to at least offer the potential for 10 points or 10 handles, which is equivalent to 40 ticks.

The same would be said for forex. The framework should be a minimum of 15 pips for the pair you're trying to trade. So if you can't work out a range move at least 15 pips, the trade is probably not high probability.

It would be better suited to be left alone and let it pass. Look elsewhere. 10 handles for indices is the same to me as 20 pips in Forex. 5 handles for indices is the same to me as 10 pips in Forex.

So many times with my tweets or comments in my videos and whatnot, folks that reach out to me through TradingView, the messaging system they have there, I ignore a majority of everyone that sends me messages at TradingView. I just get too many of them. And the question that keeps popping up recently is if I'm teaching predominantly presently at the time in 2023 in the YouTube mentorship, which is free by the way.

The question is, if I'm looking for five handles of price movement in the E-mini S&P, what would that translate for those that are trading Forex? That would be the equivalent of 10 pips. If I'm looking for 10 handles in indices and we're trading stock index futures, if you're a Forex trader, you would be looking for the equivalent of 20 pips in your Forex pair. So that way there's the relationship between the two.

These are essential frameworks to what I deem high probability ICT Silver Bullet trade setups. All right, so let's talk about, and this is really the gem of this presentation really, types of ICT Silver Bullet setups. Now, the framework for many ICT Silver Bullet setups are as follows, but they're not limited to previous day high or low. draw on liquidity, meaning yesterday's high, if we're bullish, there's going to be buy stops or buy side liquidity resting above that. We would be looking for a run to previous day's high.

That expansion is the draw on liquidity for buy side. Vice versa, if we are bearish, we're expecting lower prices throughout the week and we see the previous day's low as having sell side liquidity or sell stops below it. So we would look for potential setups that would expand down into that liquidity. Previous session highs and lows as draws on liquidity, meaning that let's say you're sitting down in front of the charts and it's the AM session in New York. You would look at the high and or low of the London session that just passed and look to a run on liquidity or retest of those old lows or highs.

previous weekly high or low as a draw on liquidity. If we're bullish we would look for a run above the previous week's high or if we're bearish we would look for a run below the previous week's low. Another would be returning to a current or old new week opening gap so that would be treated as a draw on liquidity or an expansion away from the current or old new week opening gap.

And a classic ICT optimal trade entry, which has been for the longest time while doing this YouTube channel. That's always been the classic flagship pattern, but now we've seen many more models and approaches, so it can't be referred to as the flagship pattern anymore. I think the fair value gap has taken the throne there.

Confluence of the 2022 ICT mentorship YouTube model, which I taught for free on this YouTube channel, meaning that... Your draw on liquidity could be an inefficiency above the marketplace when we're bullish or an inefficiency below the price when we're bearish. Which means that if we're bearish, we could be aiming for a discount buy-side imbalance, sell-side inefficiency, or some measure of fair value gap that would be below current price action. That would be your draw when bearish.

Or if you're bullish, you would be looking for an inefficiency above current price action, which would be many times in the form of a SIBI or sell-side imbalance, buy-side inefficiency. or variant of fair value gap above current price action. So you can treat that or as I mentioned all the previous ones above number seven here all of them being equally available in terms of probability if it is in the market at the time. Not all of these are going to be a factor. You know there have been times where the previous week's high has already been rated that morning Looking at it again may not be the ideal scenario.

So it might require you to look at a higher time frame liquidity pool or inefficiency above price if you're bullish. So I could list a myriad of different scenarios, but I think this list is good enough to give the students of my YouTube channel a great deal of latitude. So that way you can look at the. potential for any one of these situations. Not all of them will exist.

On any given day, not all of these will be in the charts, but most days, one of these criteria will be in play. Don't take my word for it. Go back through your price action. You'll see what I'm saying here is in fact true. Obviously, the main emphasis is determining the next most likely draw in the price action.

So where is the price likely to go to next? That's the number one goal. for all of my students is to focus on that skill set first because all the entries and the accents and such that is the least important thing because you don't know where price is trying to go to from the time you're sitting and looking at your charts and whatever analysis concept you use is probably gonna fail you all right let's talk about our first ICT silver bullet setup in the time in which it forms now again this is a time-based model That means these things are linked to a specific 60 minute interval or window in time.

Every single trading day, this pattern will form. It may not be in the Forex pair that you're trading. It may not be in the futures contract that you're trading. It may not be in the asset that you are specifically looking at, but it does form every single day.

First. setup time is 3 a.m. to 4 a.m.

Now we're always referring to New York local time. So whenever I'm referring to a specific time, whether it be a window of time or a very specific time of the day, you have to have your charts calibrated to New York local time. Wherever that is, whenever that is in your area, if we're observing daylight savings time, then you observe daylight savings time.

So that way it removes all the uncertainty, the confusion, whatever it is in New York, that local time. That's what you're using when you're charting. This is the London Open Silver Bullet.

So what we're looking for is a classic ICT fair value gap to form between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. New York local time. The factor at which you are going to lean heavily on is the skill set of knowing where price is going to go to.

Okay, and it's not necessarily the bias, you just predominantly have to consider where the next draw on liquidity is is it going to go above the marketplace for buy stops or trade into inefficiency above current price action if you're bullish in this case the market was bearish it was looking to go lower and there was obvious sell side liquidity pool resting below that old swing low and between three o'clock and four the market created a fair value gap we had a shift in market structure below this low here so this is your classic what Optimal trade entry fair value gap here the market shows the willingness to support this idea with the body staying inside that gap See that now at 4 a.m. It does pump more time just above it, but that's fine It would have never stopped me out with the rules I teach with all of my models here So I see the optimal trade entry the idea for this would be to look for a minimum of what market is this? It's a futures contract, so that means does it offer the potential for 10 handles?

So from here down to here, trading below this low, not just to the low, but to it and through it. So it's reasonable to anticipate a potential run of 10 handles. We don't require that, but going short inside that fair value gap, the formation of the ICT silver bullet, the entry.

is taken inside of that 60 minute window between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. It does not mean that the trade is entered and is exited in the same 60 minute window.

In other words, your trade many times will be held over the 4 o'clock hour and into 5 o'clock in the morning and maybe even rolling over into the New York session opening at 7, 8 o'clock New York local time. But in this instance, we would be aiming for this low in the sell-sell equity. resting below it. So does it offer from this entry here down to here at least five handles for you to book in profit?

It does so. The framework was, could it get to 10? It could do 10. We don't require that. Shorting at the fair value gap, covering at the old low allows for at least five handles. And that's what the ICT silver bullet is.

This is my actual. model for my son Cameron. Alright, the second one in our continuing list of ICT Silver Bullet setups is the AM session.

Now this one is focusing on the 10 a.m. To 11 a.m. Always New York local time and let's take a closer look at this one now.

Okay, so we are looking at the E-mini SMP once more. And the idea is between 10 a.m. New York local time and 11 a.m.

We wait for when the market's bearish. Relative equal lows. There's sell side resting below that.

We have a fair value gap. Bearish. Fair value gap. It trades up into it between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock. We can sell short there.

Does it offer 10 handles? Well, from 41.46 or thereabouts to 41.36. that range doesn't even get us down into this low let alone below that one so it obviously meets the criteria of a minimum of 10 handles in framework it does not mean you're trying to get 10 handles it just means that it offers 10 handles so going short here collecting five handles that could have been done inside of the scope of that 60 minute window not that you're trying to do that as I mentioned briefly moments ago the trade is many times held in duration longer than the window that the framework and entry is derived from. So it's not a in and out within the same hour.

It means that you're looking for the setup to form to get you into the trade within the scope of 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock New York time. All right. And finally, we have our last ICT silver bullet here, which is framed on 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. New York local time and this is the PM session I see silver bullet setup in this one here we can see that we traded down into a higher time frame 15 minute discount fair value gap and you're encouraged to go into your charts to see that is in fact what we have here market trades down into it shifts higher a swing has been broken to the upside so we have a shift in market structure and a fair value gap so Any retracements back down into that, look at the bodies staying inside that.

The wicks do the damage, but the body's telling you the narrative. The story is told by the bodies. So it's telling you it's respecting this buy side and balance sell side inefficiency or fair value gap. Going into 2 o'clock, we rallied and we created a small little fair value gap there.

The market drops down into that before taking out the relative equal highs buy side liquidity and or returning back to a premium sell side and balance buy side inefficiency or fair value gap that would be above the market here and here. So if it's going to rally here, the free market could be on the optimal trade entry here. And taking the first fair-buy gap that forms inside of and reprices to between 2 o'clock and 3 o'clock. That's happening right there.

So from here all the way up to here, does that offer 10 handles? Yes, it's actually offering 12 or more. So this entry here is a high probability condition that lends well to a run into inefficiency in the premium and to take buy side out as well. So that is a very handsome run there. and trading between 2 o'clock and 3 o'clock.

Now some closing thoughts. If you're new to my channel and you're seeing this, you don't have enough to trade this pattern. So you have to backtest it while you're learning how to read price action and determine where the next draw on liquidity is going to be for the next price swing, for whatever asset class you're trading.

So don't be discouraged if it seems like it's just cherry-picked, and there it is because I actually traded many of these. types of setups either with calling it out on twitter or mentioning it in passing while actually doing executions and recording it so these patterns these things form and i called a few of them real time on twitter last week and many of you much to my disapproval because i don't like when you take the setups at a trade setup signal i don't want you to view it like that But many of the followers on my Twitter feed actually showed they took the trade I called out with using a silver bullet. So the pattern works. It's highly, highly consistent.

It's extremely high probability when you have all these factors in mind. And they are present in price action. It gives you a rule-based idea to look for a time-based model. So time and price is being utilized here, which is where the focus of my...

analysis concepts and teaching as a mentor teaching my students how to find something that repeats You can't get anything better than having a specific 60-minute window of opportunity that forms every single trading day every single trading day one of these setups are going to form now if you don't have a plethora of markets to follow Ideally one or two at best while you're first learning how to do it even if you grow to a point of interest where you have a lot of markets that you're trading a lot of pairs or a lot of futures markets and such, you'll find that over time, the longer your career will be, your list will reduce down to one or two, at worst, maybe three if you want to be a deviant. But my advice is for you to be a specialist, try to focus on one market because if you can do that, one of these specific ICT silver bullet setups will form every single day. Meaning that if you just follow one market, just one market.

you can get your setups there you can make your bread and butter you can make your ends meet you'll have losing trades okay it's going to happen but by far and large you can do things with one market and if you don't get the setup in london you wait for it in the am session if you don't get it there you wait for it in the pm session but every single market every single trading day will offer one of these so you have to be disciplined you have to focus and look for these ideas to form in price action and should you do that you'll need to look at nothing further than this. You don't need to go into any other models. You don't need to go into any other teachings. You don't have to come back to my YouTube channel. You'll never have to do any of that stuff anymore because you'll be independently minded and your analysis will be uniquely yours.

You won't have to look at external sources like me or someone else to provide that to you. You'll trust yourself, which is a very empowering state of mind. And that's always been my target and goal with all of my students.

So hopefully you found this one insightful and I'll talk to you next time. Be safe.

Transcript for:Exploring ICT Silver Bullet Trading Strategies

Transcript for:
Exploring ICT Silver Bullet Trading Strategies