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April 2025 Market Analysis Overview

Apr 11, 2025

Market Analysis - April 11, 2025

Overview

  • Positive week for equities with significant gains:
    • S&P 500: +11%
    • NASDAQ: +7%
  • Markets rebounded significantly from the yearly low, observed on Monday.

Key Market Observations

  • S&P 500 (SPY):
    • Monday: Initial gap lower, buyers took control post-recovery above the daily VWAP.
    • Tuesday: Slight selling observed.
    • Thursday: Tested anchored VWAP from week's start, indicating resilience.
    • Concerns about further resistance due to new tariff news and potential supply areas.

Technical Indicators

  • Declining moving averages:
    • 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are declining, raising suspicions.
    • Potential for 200-day moving average to continue declining unless market moves significantly higher.
  • Fibonacci retracement analysis shows over 38.2% retracement from the year's high to low.
  • Volume analysis: While daily volume appears low, the weekly VWAP indicates a significant average trading price.

Strategy Insights

  • Cautious Approach Recommended:
    • Maintain skepticism about rally sustainability with declining moving averages.
    • Day trading preferred, but potential for holding trades overnight if profit margins are satisfactory.

NASDAQ & Other Indices

  • NASDAQ:
    • Similar story with a 38.2% retracement and declining 20-day moving average.

Stock and Sector Highlights

  • Financials:
    • JP Morgan's influence questioned; potential supply zones identified.
    • Long-term structure suggests risk of continued decline.
  • Biotech:
    • Slight bounce; potential for further decline considering historical lows.
  • Energy:
    • Resistance expected following support breakdown; crude oil stabilizing but lacks buyer control.

Commodities and Cryptocurrencies

  • Crude Oil:
    • Attempting to stabilize, following patterns of lower highs and sustained tests of support.
  • Bitcoin:
    • Continued pattern of lower highs and lows, recovery in recent days but overall neutral outlook.
  • Ethereum:
    • Touched significant VWAP anchor but maintains a pattern of lower highs and lows.

Trade Recommendations

  • General Advice:
    • Be cautious with stops, study market signals closely.
    • Consider short sales in alignment with identified trends and levels.
  • Crucial Levels:
    • Utilize VWAPs and moving averages to identify critical trading levels.

Announcements

  • Upcoming Analysis:
    • More detailed stock discussions on Twitter, Sunday evening.
  • Alpha Trends Sale:
    • Promotion ending soon with details available on the website.

Note: This summary is based on market conditions and analysis as of April 11, 2025. Market dynamics are subject to change, and ongoing monitoring is recommended.

Full transcript