Discusses the potential return to the gold standard, emphasizing its difficulty but purported benefits.
Donald Trump advocates for a new monetary system based on gold.
There are plans for a "Marilago Accord" to address tariffs and establish a new monetary system.
Evidence and Predictions
Scott Bent's Statement: The US Treasury Secretary indicated a need for a new global monetary system, akin to a Bretton Woods agreement.
Gold as a Stable Asset: Gold is not a fiat currency and is viewed as a stable store of value.
Global Trends: Discussion on China and its purchasing of gold, suggesting a possible shift to a gold-based R&B.
Comparisons and Critiques
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Gold is positioned as both a risk-off and risk-on asset, unlike Bitcoin which is seen purely as a risk asset.
US Treasury's Stance: Implications that the world will not adopt a bitcoin-based system and may shift to a global gold standard.
Historical Context
Donald Trump's Views: Historically expressed support for the gold standard, seeing it as a solid foundation, despite recognizing the current lack of US gold reserves.
Fort Knox Gold: Concerns over whether the US has enough gold reserves; suggestions that recent inflows might be restocking US gold holdings.
Economic Shifts and Risks
Bridgewater Capital: Identifies current economic conditions as a once-in-a-generation shift, posing risks to US assets.
Ray Dalio’s Commentary: Predicts a breakdown in the monetary order, emphasizing the need for change.
International & Domestic Trade Dynamics
Triffin Dilemma: Challenges posed by the US dollar as a reserve currency, leading to trade deficits and manufacturing decline.
Gold Holdings Analysis: US holds significant gold but lacks the per capita advantage; China is a major buyer but ranks low per capita.
Gold Market Trends
Gold Flows: Recent shifts in gold flows favor the US, with large inflows from Swiss refineries.
Commodities Exchange: Preparing for significant changes, possibly related to global financial shifts.
Final Thoughts
Trump’s Motivation: Driven by a desire to win and correct trade/account deficits.
Potential Outcomes: A return to a gold standard could stabilize global economies, with a predicted gold price of $10,000/oz.
Economic Transition: Historical patterns show cyclical shifts leading to new monetary systems, currently anticipating another major transition.
Conclusion
The global economic landscape is on the brink of a transition, with gold playing a central role.
Individuals must prepare for changes that could significantly impact personal and national wealth.