Why Zelensky Can't and Won't Give Up Crimea

Context and Background

• Capture of Crimea (2014):
  • Russia captured Crimea in February 2014.
  • Denied by Putin initially; referred to as being done by "little green men" (masked commandos).
  • Marked the beginning of Russia's war on Ukraine leading to the 2022 invasion.

Current Situation

• Trump's Peace Plan:
  • Crimea is central to the plan, which would recognize it as part of Russia "de jure".
  • Trump considers Crimea "lost" and not part of peace talks.
  • Opposition in Ukraine views territorial integrity as non-negotiable.

Zelensky's Stance

• Opposition to Recognizing Crimea as Russian:
  • Zelensky cannot give up Crimea due to Ukraine's constitution.
  • Article 2 states Ukraine’s territory is indivisible and any changes require a national referendum.
  • Zelensky emphasizes previous US support (Pompeo's 2018 declaration).

International Implications

• Concerns Over International Law:
  • Recognizing Crimea as Russian challenges international law and UN principles.

Historical Claims

• Russia's Historical Ties to Crimea:
  • Long-standing Russian view of Crimea as part of its territory.
  • Crimea voted for independence in 1991 but remained a focal point due to strategic importance.
  • Prior annexation by Tsarist Russia in 1783; transferred to Ukraine in 1954.
  • Referendum in 2014 considered a sham internationally.

Crimean Tatar Perspective

• Indigenous Claims:
  • Tatars, originally deported, now claim Crimea as their homeland.
  • Refat Chubarov argues for non-recognition of territorial concessions.

Additional Issues in Peace Plan

• Recognition of Occupied Regions:
  • De facto recognition of Russian control in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia.
  • Conditions include non-NATO membership for Ukraine.
  • Proposed lifting of US sanctions and increased economic cooperation.
  • Shared mineral profits between the US and Ukraine.

Conclusion

• Crimea remains a significant geopolitical and symbolic issue.
• Zelensky’s constitutional constraints and national sentiment prevent concession.
• Broader implications for international law and regional stability remain critical.