But you had a mass uh illusion that it could go on forever. You had Wall Street firms participating. You had mortgage genators participating, but you had the public participating. And and it it was, you know, it was it was a lot of fun. I mean, it was like going to Cinderella going to the party. I mean, it was all going to turn to ice and pumpkins at midnight, but nobody wanted to leave until 1 minute to midnight. Once the housing market goes, everything follows with it. And today's video is going to be on how Red Fin and actually many other housing market analysts are now flipping on the housing market suggesting that prices of houses are actually going to go down. But the real question I want to help answer today is why? Why all of a sudden are all these analysts, including Zillow, Red Fin, and many others, now flipping on the housing market, sending out a warning that hey guys, prices are going to go down? Well, today I'm going to help you answer that question. I'm also going to go in to analyze whether or not Texas, the entire state of Texas is crashing right now as we analyze the top five metro areas in Texas. And we're going to end this video going over some of the most important trends and data that are all combining together to put overwhelming pressure on prices going down. But first, welcome back to Real Estate Mindset. You guys already know this video is going to be absolutely bonkers. And I wanted to remind you guys real quick, remember this. Buying a home and real estate is not liquid. Generally, in order to sell your house, you pay an 8% commission fee. And if you just hold on to your house, remember you guys, property tax strips your equity. In other words, if you're going to buy a house and you're not going to listen to anything I'm going to say, be very, very careful. Now, before I go into the headlines, let's listen to a little bit more about what Warren Buffett has to say. I'm going to take you guys into the past because I want you to remember that when the housing market falls, everything falls with it. And occasionally uh that train is going to get derailed. In 2008, you had uh something close to a a bubble in home real estate. 50 million people had mortgages roughly at that time. out of 75 million homeowners. When that bubble burst, it hit home to probably 40% of the households in the country. These people that have mortgages on their houses. Average age of the firsttime home buyer is 38 years old. Almost 40 years old to be a firsttime home buyer. You guys, that is an all-time high. Another all-time high is the average age of a home buyer in 2024 is 56. In addition to that, the median down payment on a home in the US as of January 2025, according to bankrate.com, is $54,310. So, if you're lucky enough to even get any equity at all, which if you bought in the last 3 years, you probably haven't. Remember, you've just tied up $55,000 of which it could all disappear. US home purchases were cancelled at the second highest April rate on record. People are running for the exits. On top of that, as I've said, these housing market analyst companies are all starting to flip on the housing market. As Redin states, Redfin forecast US home prices will dip 1% by the end of 2025. And you guys, this is only the beginning. On top of that, they're saying as of right now, 20% of the 50 top metro areas are showing decline with number one being Oakland, California down 5%. Dallas, Texas year-over-year down 3.4%, Austin down 3.1%, Tampa down 2.4 and Houston down 1.2%. It's also important to understand that different data providers manipulate median sale price differently. This is Redfin's 4week rolling average as you guys can see right here ending May 18th. In other words, we have a historically unhealthy housing market. demand is in the absolute gutter and inventory is surging. But I want to go back again into the past and I want you guys to remember what happens when the housing market crashes. And one of the things that happens is fraud is discovered. I want to play a video from the past about Countrywide. And if you guys weren't an adult back then, Countrywide was the number one mortgage lender during the global financial crisis. How much fraud was there countrywide? From what I saw, the types of things I saw, it was it appeared systemic. It it wasn't just one individual or two or three individuals. It was branches of individuals. It was regions of individuals. What you seem to be saying was it was just a way of doing business. Yes. Systemic fraud just like we have today. Let's listen to what was going on with credit swaps and derivatives all the way back into 2009. And remember you guys, right now things are much worse in the derivatives market. Listen to this. Is a bet based on whether people will default on their mortgages. And that was the bet that blew up Wall Street. The TNT was the collapse of the housing market and the failure of complicated mortgage securities that the big investment houses created and sold around the world. But the rocket fuel was the trillions of dollars in side bets on those mortgage securities called credit default swaps. They were essentially private insurance contracts that paid off if the investment went bad. But you didn't have to actually own the investment to collect on the insurance. Now, this video is going to explain how everyone got hit during the global financial crisis. It wasn't just subprime loans like most of the mainstream media wants you to believe. It was everybody. How big is the potential damage from the altas compared to what we just saw in the subprimes? Well, the subprime was approaching a trillion. The alt is about a trillion um and then you have option arms on top of that. Uh that's probably another 5 to 600 billion on top of that. How many of these option arms would you imagine are going to fail? Well north of 50%. My gut would be 70% of these option arms will default. The party hasn't even started. So, I really hope that this entire time, the last three years I've been doing these videos, you guys have been preparing to take advantage of what comes on the other side of this, which is potentially the deal of your dreams. And what I mean by prepare, that's your credit, your income, your assets, your knowledge of your local housing market, and patience. Hopefully you guys have those things because I want you to get the deal of your dreams as well. Let's dig into Texas and I want you guys to answer the question at the end of this segment. Is the Texas housing market crashing right now? The first thing we're going to look at is Texas and whole and we're going to use Red Fin's data. Obviously, we can use Zillow. We can use a lot of different ones. We're going to stick with Red Fin. Now, the first thing I want you guys to notice is is it's actually showing that Texas as a state is down.91% year-over-year. But as you guys can also see, Texas peaked in May of 2022 at $372,000. That's now down from today's price of $348,000. That's down $24,200 on average, which means from peak, Texas is down 6.5%. Let's start with Austin. As you guys can see here, Austin peaked in May of 2022 at $667,000. Today it's at $575,000, which means from peak back in May of 2022, Austin prices on average, median I should say, have gone down $92,000, which represents from peak to right now a decline of 13.8%. However, what's interesting is, and this is why research is so important, it's showing that it's up 2.4% year-over-year. When we look at San Antonio, San Antonio peaked in May of 2022 as well at 290,000. The current price in San Antonio is 255,000, which means prices from peak to right now in San Antonio have gone down 34,148 or down a whopping 11.7% from peak. And it's also showing down a whopping year-over-year San Antonio leading the way down year-over-year 5.9%. When we look at Fort Worth, Texas, you guys can see just like the others, this one peaked May of 2022 at $370,000. Right now, it's at $340,000, which means from peak prices in Fort Worth has gone down $30,000, which represents from peak a loss of 8.1%. However, as you guys can see here, Fort Worth is up 3% year-over-year. Dallas is an absolute beast because of the migration, just like Houston. Dallas actually peaked May of 2024, not May of 2022. So, from May of 2024, prices of houses, as you guys can see here, were $499,000. Right now, they're $470,000, which means from May to right now, prices have gone down roughly $29,000, which represents a decline of 5.8%. However, look at the year-over-year. The year-over-year is up 6.2%. 2% sold. Still like Houston, lot of migration into Dallas. When we look at my home metro of Houston, you guys can see also Houston peaked in May of 2022 at $355,000. Right now, it's showing $345,000, which means prices from peak in Houston have only gone down $10,000, which represents a decline of 2.8%. But here's what's really interesting about Houston. Houston's down year-over-year right now 5% yearoveryear. I say a crash is 15% decline from peak to current. However, I've recently changed my description and definition of a crash to 20%. Because quite frankly, you guys, 15% isn't going to cut it. Now, I want you guys to understand that the data that we just looked at is before a public fear public fear recession has even begun. So, I would say in my opinion, and I want to hear from you, tell me, do you guys think that the housing market in Texas is crashing? Yes or no? Comment below. And if you want, wait till the next segment when I show you guys all of the trends that are putting pressure on prices going down. But overall, what I would say is happening in Texas right now. I believe that Texas is showing ahead of any other state, massive cracks and volatility in the housing market, and I'm about to show you guys that inventory is surging at the same time that demand is going down. Price cuts are shooting up at historical levels and the days on market. But overall, I would say the Texas housing market right now is an absolute trap because you got to understand that if you want to sell your house, you're upside down. No metro area is up 8%. Which is what it takes to just sell your house. And then when you add again the property taxes, like my property taxes here in Houston are 3.52%. That means 3.52% of my equity is taken each year from the municipalities, especially the school ISD bond repayments. Now, having said that, I do believe that Texas is going to lead the nation in the housing market crash that has already begun. Let's take a look at many other important data trends that's causing all of these analysts to start flipping. This is total active listings in Texas. We have more active inventory in Texas than we've had in at least the last nine years. So that's how many listings we have right now. And I want you guys to pay attention to this trend. Look at how the inventory is actually skyrocketing in Texas. And I want to tell you this, this is only to April. We have two to three more months of inventory growth in Texas. So when that much inventory stays on the market, obviously that's going to lead eventually to distressed selling. Unaffordability is extremely bad from both a payment and a price standpoint. But what you're looking at is the payment aspect when we show a 10% down payment and we include property taxes and insurance. And let me show you guys going back to the GFC, the global financial crisis. Let's go to the beginning of 2006. The debt to income ratio or the payment peaked around July of 2006 at 41.8%. And remember you guys, the global financial crisis, people stopped making their mortgage payments because they couldn't afford to make them. Right now, they're a lot more unaffordable because not only did we exceed 41.8%, we jumped over that, peaking in October of 2023 at 46.5%. And that was a time when people should have known, do not buy a house right now. Those people that purchased in October of 2023 are doomed. And it's not just the payment. Look at the price, which is the bigger problem. Now, the last time we got to this magnitude of bubble was actually in 2006, global financial crisis, peaking around 6.7 to 6.8 years to pay back the median house. But right now, that has blown past it at 7.37 times. Which means, and what I'm showing you guys here, this is a massive bubble. This is a bubble right now. the likes of which we have never seen before. And I want you guys to respect this, okay? This happened in 15 years. So, they were supposed to fix this. And this bubble right here that you guys see, this was never supposed to happen again. Less than two decades later, we're in a worse situation than last time, which means these frauds did absolutely nothing to improve the situation. They just created things that would allow the bubble to get bigger. Now, pay attention to this blue line. And the blue line is 2025. And this represents price cuts. And right now we have historical price cuts. We have historical price cuts because we have inventory skyrocketing. At the same time, that demand is actually going down. So all that's doing is causing the current listings to get more and more desperate, which in turn, as you guys can see here, causes massive price cuts. And look at that surge, you guys. That is surging, skyrocketing upward. And we also have a brand new record high for days on market for this time of year sitting at 36.5 days on market. So again, inventory is skyrocketing because unaffordability is so bad from both a price and payment standpoint. At the same time that demand is going down at the same time that days on market is going up, price cuts are going up. So obviously you guys, the housing market is fixing to implode, especially in areas like Houston that has overwhelming amounts of new home construction. All you guys are looking at is the Houston area right here. Now, the total amount of communities that are new. Okay, so we're just now looking at new. We just went over existing homes. This is new homes right here. We have as many new homes as we do existing homes for sale in Houston. 1,038 brand new communities all around Houston. And you guys look at all these price cuts. You see so many price cuts right here. 62,000 20,000. These price cuts are everywhere. And look at what LAR is doing in Houston. Lar right now is offering interest rates at 1.25% for the first year, 2.2 the second year, 3.2 the third year, and it gets fixed at 4.25% 25%. With $50,000 in price reductions, a refrigerator, washer and dryer package, you guys, they're offering all this and they still can't hold their prices and sell their homes. The housing market in Texas is absolutely cooked. And when the full implosion happens, I'm telling you guys, and I have a bet with Melody Wright, Texas is going to lead the way. And I want you guys to do me a favor. Don't forget to comment below. Let me know whether or not you agree with me. Let me know what you learned, what you didn't learn. And always remember, house, the housing market is about analyzing local markets and doing subdivision review. Don't forget real estatemindset.org. I have free courses. It doesn't cost you any money to become an expert. I have put you guys in a situation to where if you want to be an expert, you can do that for free. You just have to spend your time on learning. Definitely take a course on how to do a market analysis. It's going to teach you how to use the maths to find the deal like wedge and cash flow. my home buying master class. It's going to teach you everything about credit, mortgages, and overall how to purchase a house. I don't want you guys to purchase a house. I want you guys to learn how to purchase a house and learn what a good deal really looks like. Now, other than that, guys, I really appreciate you following along. And if you guys are out there investing in real estate, you guys already know I wish you luck and I hope you