Lecture Notes: Breaking Into My Own House and The Concept of Pre-Mortem

Introduction

• Personal anecdote about breaking into own house in Montreal during winter.
• Circumstances: midnight, -40 degrees (same in Celsius and Fahrenheit), no keys.
• Rationale behind breaking the window: urgency of needing passport and suitcase for an early flight to Europe.
• Reflection on stress and brain function: releases cortisol, raises heart rate, clouds thinking.

The Consequences

• Woke up with clouded thinking due to stress and lack of sleep.
• Forgot passport, returned home and barely made the flight.
• Lost seat, resulting in uncomfortable travel experience.
• Reflected on ways to minimize the damage from unexpected events.

Introduction to Pre-Mortem

• Coined during a conversation with Danny Kahneman, reference to Gary Klein's work.
• Pre-mortem concept: Identifying potential future failures and devising strategies to prevent them or minimize damage.
• Applied to home and travel scenarios:
  • Designate specific places for easily lost items. Example: hooks for keys, specific drawers for passports.
  • Backup important documents digitally, like taking pictures of credit cards, passports.

Stress and Cortisol

• Cortisol: toxic, clouds thinking.
• Under stress, need to rely on predetermined systems due to impaired decision-making.

Medical Decision Making

• Practical application of pre-mortem in making medical decisions.
• Example scenario: decising whether to take a statin for high cholesterol.
• Important considerations:
  • Ask for the "Number Needed to Treat" (NNT).
  • Side effects evaluation.
• Statistics: 1 in 300 benefit from statins, 5% experience side effects (15/300 harmed).
• Broader implications for surgeries and medical treatments - understanding risks vs. benefits.

Broader Implications

• Familial and financial decision-making also benefit from pre-mortem thinking.
• Stress management: Systems can help maintain rational decision-making during high cortisol situations.

Conclusion

• Personal improvements: installed a combination lock, sorting mail gradually.
• Key takeaway: Everyone is prone to failure, but systems can help mitigate damage and prevent catastrophes.
• Encouragement to adopt pre-mortem thinking in everyday life.

(Applause)