Transcript for:
Musk-Trump Conflict and Market Outlook

Okay, so let's get into this Musk Trump war and what's going on there. And then I'll tell tell you my perspective and opinion on where the stock is headed. I'm very disappointed because Elon knew the inner workings of this bill better than almost anybody sitting here, better than you people. He knew everything about it. He had no problem with it. All of a sudden, he had a problem. And he only developed the problem when he found out that we're going to have to cut the EV mandate because that's Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold your horses. That is extremely disrespectful. insane levels of disrespect. Um, and we know when when Mus gets attacked, he attacks back 10 times more, right? And same thing with Trump, too. When Trump feels like he gets attacked, he he goes 10 times X. And so, this is crazy because this is so disrespectful to say that, oh, the only reason Elon has a problem with the bill is because, you know, we're taking away the EV incentives. Elon Musk has gone on record many times over the past few years that he'd be more than happy if they got rid of the EV incentives. So, the fact that Trump says, you know, just kind of blows it off, it's a it's a smart strategic move from Trump's perspective because if people don't really look into it, you know, let's say you're you're a big Trump supporter and, you know, you just hear him say that, right? That sound bite there and you're like, you know, he's like, "Oh, Elon just like that's going to make sense to you. You don't need to look any further into it. You say, "Oh, Elon's crazy. That's why he's he's against this because they're taking away his EV credits." Right? Now, if you look further into it, you start to realize, oh, Elon Musk has been in favor of that for a long long time. billions and billions of dollars and it really is unfair. We want to have cars of all types, electric, we want to have electric, but we want to have gasoline, uh, combustion, we want to have different, we want to have hybrids, we want to have all, we want to be able to sell everything. And when that was cut and Congress wanted to cut it, uh, he became a little bit different and I can understand that. But he knew every aspect of this bill. He knew it better than almost anybody. and he never had a problem until right after he left. And if you saw the statements he made about me, which I'm sure you can get very easily, it's very fresh on tape. Uh he said the most beautiful things about me. And he hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm sure that'll be next. But I'm I'm very disappointed in Elon. I've helped Elon a lot. Helped Elon a lot. That's interesting. Um, okay. So, you know, right off the bat, Elon Musk says here, cuz you, you know, that's the thing with Elon Musk and Trump, and that's why this was going to be such a volatile situation, right? And, uh, you know, you got two men there that man, when they get attacked, they like to come, like I said, 10x back. So, Elon Mus says whatever. Keep the EV solar incentives cuts in the bills, even though no oil and gas subsidies are touched. Very unfair. True. Uh, but ditch the mountain of disgusting pork in the bill. In the entire history of civilization, there has never been legislation that are both big and beautiful. Everyone knows that either you get a big and ugly bill or slim and beautiful bill. Slim and beautiful is the way he says, right? Um he obviously posted this national debts up to around 37 trillion. Now at this point in time, Elon Musk says false. This bill was never shown to me even once and was passed in the dead of night so fast that almost no one in Congress could even read it. Now, somebody's lying. Somebody's lying here. It's either Musk or it's Trump. Trump says Elon Musk knew everything about this bill. He knew the inner workings better than anybody. And Elon Musk is saying he he was never even shown this bill once. So, somebody's lying. Who do you believe? Do you believe Musk or do you believe Trump? Id love to hear in the comments section. Who do you believe? Because one of these men is lying in regards to that. Right now, also here they post Elon continues to mount high school pressure campaign, which is pretty funny. Now, this was big here. This is the type of stuff that Trump's really, really going to be upset at because Elon Musk says, "Where is this guy today?" Oh my gosh. He pulled up a ton of Trump's old tweets. We could use a balanced budget amendment. Politicians don't have the will to cut spending. I cannot believe this was in 2013. I cannot believe the Republicans are extending the debt ceiling. I'm a Republican. I am embarrassed. Oh boy. It's a little different when you're in office, right? We need a balanced budget amendment because Congress has no fiscal discipline. The Republicans should not give Barack Obama the authority to raise the debt another 1.2 trillion. Oh man, that's small potatoes now compared to nowadays, right? Look at this one here. Barack Obama is bankrupting this country. His budget adds another 4.4 trillion of the debt, putting us over 20 trillion in total debt by 2016. Oh, that's small numbers. Cuz you know what? Now we're approaching $40 trillion in total debt. Oh man, can we go back to the good old days of only 20 trillion in debt, right? And so he just posts all these old, you know, tweets uh from Trump there. Trump's not going to like that, right? Now, additionally here, obviously, he's reposting a lot of stuff, right? He's going right at Trump and basically saying, "Hey, man, you're full of BS. You said you would, you know, you want balanced budgets. You said, you know, we would shouldn't increase the debt." All this stuff. you know, you're big talk, but you at the end of the day when it actually comes time, you're not doing any of this, right? And so, it's clear these guys are at war now. And the big ugly spending bill will make things much worse. Um, man, what a situation, right? What a situation. Now, also the whole the whole notion around uh, you know, Trump says he helped him a lot. Elon Musk says, you know, Trump wouldn't have won the election without him. Now, I'd love to hear your guys' opinion in the comments section. Do you think Elon Musk helped Trump win the election? Do you think Trump would have won that election if Elon Musk didn't help? My personal opinion on that is I think Elon Musk helped Trump win the election. With that being said, Trump would have won that election regardless if Elon Musk was on his side or not in my personal opinion. And the reason being is I think you just had a lot of voters that were, you know, were very frustrated with the levels of inflation that happened under the Biden era. And so therefore, they they felt like, you know, we don't want to we don't want this situation to keep going on. And they felt like Camala was going to be an extension of that. Now you could debate whether that would have been true or not, but regard regardless like people felt like Biden was in office when this crazy inflation was going on and Camala is just going to be a continuation of that and we're sick of inflation, right? Inflation is very devastating to the consumer. And so I think regardless, people were thinking back to the Trump days and like, man, that wasn't too bad. I remember 2017, 2018, 2019, like jobs market was good. We had low inflation. Like I want to go back there. So my opinion is Trump would have won that election with or without Elon Musk. But e Trump went in a landslide. I think Elon Musk and Joe Rogan, some of these other folks, I think they helped Trump win in a landslide. But I think regardless of the Joe Rogan interview, regardless of Elon Musk, and my my honest belief is Trump would have won that election regardless. Okay. Now, additionally, um, you know, he he basically just kind of reposting stuff about like, you know, being against like the EV credits and those sorts of things, right? And, you know, just kind of doubling and tripling down. Oh, this is something that you you want to talk about something that's going to piss Trump off. Oh, look at this one. Look at this one. I have a plan to cut spending, increase spending. Oh, man. Woo! When Trump When Trump gets a hold of this stuff, oh, baby, it's going to be nasty. And then Elon Musk put the cherry on top. He says, "Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?" I'm going to put yes. Hey, 83% said yes. Now he's talking about he wants to create a new political party in America. Oh my gosh. War. War. Wow. Wow. Let me let me play this part. Listering criticism now from Elon Musk on social media just responding to the president's event in the Oval Office a short time ago. Elon Musk posting on X his social media platform. Without me, Trump would have lost the election. Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 5149 in the Senate. He goes on to post two words, such ingratitude. Now, that follows on President Trump appearing in the Oval Office alongside the Chancellor of Germany. Uh the president saying that he would have won Pennsylvania without Elon Musk, he was doing just fine. Yeah. And to be fair, you know, from Elon's side, that's very disrespectful to Trump. And you know, Trump Yeah. Trump's got a big ego. Everybody knows that. Whether you like Trump, whether you voted for him, voted against him, it doesn't matter. Everybody knows Trump's got a big ego. So when another man says, "I'm the reason you're president." Disrespectful. So I'm talking I'm tell like this is getting disrespectful fast fast. Uh and the president by his own terms very measured in his criticism of Elon Musk. But he did say that Musk Oh. Oh. Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Just wait till he sees all the stuff that Elon Musk posts in the past hour or two. uh was for his big spending bill until he came out against it after leaving government and that Musk had been totally briefed on that spending bill before he left government. Musk taken to social media during that press availability to say that was false. He had not seen the bill until after the fact and it was done in the dark of night. So an erupting political controversy and and sort of uh political fisticuffs I guess is the way to describe this between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. two figures who are just enormously powerful figures on the world stage who were joined at the hip politically from the summer until last week and now a major fracture here between the two. Uh the president was as I say fairly measured in his criticism of Musk by his own terms. So where where do I see this going next as far as uh Trump's next attack? My opinion on where Trump could take it here and this is going to be some of the lowest level of disrespect. I think Trump's gonna might take the approach of um Elon's on stuff, baby. That's gonna get real ugly because that's what I think is going to happen. I think Trump's going to say he's he's on stuff. He's doing stuff. And man, um you know, oh, he's going crazy because he's he's doing all types of stuff. Hey, it's Jeremy. I hope you really enjoyed that clip here today. Listen, there are three main areas a long-term investor has to understand. You have to understand financial statements, income statements, balance sheets, cash flows. You have to understand and master portfolio management. And you have to have the ability to project what is possible for companies in the coming years. Bearish scenarios, bullish scenarios, all these skills can be learned and that's the good news. And I'm still just a regular guy who's out here. I just have a lot of passion for the market. I've learned a lot over the last 15 years. I had a tremendous amount of success and I have a dedication to teaching people everything I have learned in the past 15 years. If I can do it, you can do it too. You can learn all that's required to become a great investor in my private group. The application is going to be down there in the description area. You can click on that, fill out an application, join us in the private group, get access to all my best course curriculums teaching you everything that I got in my head and you get ability to join our six figure, sevenf figureure hall of fame. We have such a tremendous discord. It is incredible. So once again, description area down there, there's a link you can apply to join my private group in there. Okay, let's go ahead and react to Tommy to buy the dip. Do you still feel that way when we get these sort of tariff back and forth headlines? Uh we we still think dips are going to be pretty shallow. Um it's still the most hated V-shaped rally. I mean, the CO rally was hated until we made new highs. And the rally from the fall of 2022 was hated until we made new highs. Uh, it's not any different this time. Hedge funds, I think, have really been very cautious. They were forced to sell near the lows, and we know there's 7 trillion cash. So, while a lot of people are calling a top, I I actually think that this is more of a, you know, midcycle kind of start of a new bull market. So, why doesn't the market care about tariffs? to you hear, oh, you know, this happened, this happened. Listen, it exactly what I told you guys was going to happen several months ago. Eventually, the market's going to stop caring about tariff drama and what Trump said and didn't say. There was an adjustment period. Trump gets in office. A lot of people hadn't been used to a president. You know, Biden, you didn't hear from Biden for four years. You never heard from the man for four years. And then you get Trump in office, right? Takes over in January. Also says we're going to do this, that, this, that, this, that, terrorists, blah blah blah, threats, all this stuff. And people freak out because they're not used to that. I'm used to it. I w I invested heavily during Trump presidency 1.0. And so I already knew coming in 2.0 exactly what this story was going to be. There's going to be a lot of drama, a lot of talk. And I explained this on inauguration day. I did a video on the main channel, got 173,000 views on the Trump stock market. It's going to be a roller coaster. I laid out the whole next four years, you know, and and so what happened is everybody freaked out earlier this year, right? Took an adjustment time period. And there's going to be other freakouts in in the future. This isn't the only freakout that's going to happen. There's going to be other ones that come in the future, but for right now, people are they're they're bored of the same old story, tariff drama. Market's bored of that now. You can't get the market down on that. You need something new to happen. big. Why Why do you feel that way with the economic data starting to weaken and the fundamentals changing as a result of all the tariff drama? Well, I I mean, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Wait just a minute. In all due respect, ma'am, listen. Hold your horses. Have we seen what just happened with all the big tech companies, all the Mag 7s, other than Tesla? Let's take Tesla out. They're a whole situation. Look at the other six of them. Numbers look great. Guidance is fine. Conference calls were good. What fundamentally changed with those companies? Not much. Even talk about the one-off charges they're going to have to take because of the tariffs and things like that. It was actually very minim minimal minimal. Like now Nvidia hit a little bit harder because it was like an $8 billion potential impact uh because of obviously the Chinese restrictions and whatnot. But at the end of the day, like if Nvidia still ended up, guess what? beating their numbers and posting a good guidance number. So, you could say maybe they were the most directly hit, but they still beat their numbers, right? They still had a really good guidance. They're still feeling great about this year, next year. So, you know, you just don't have a lot to go off of. If if all those companies were all a sudden, you know, revenues about to trend down big, things are about to get ugly. That's a whole different situation. Amazon sounds like it's about to go through a revenue acceleration, not deceleration, acceleration at the end. just did a relative comparison. When I look at the company outlooks now compared to February 2025, I actually think the outlook's actually better. Um, you know, when we when we look at 2026, I think we have better visibility on deregulation and potential tax benefits. I think the tariff risk is actually diminished compared to February 2025. And while the Fed's been on hold this year, I I think that there's a case to be made they're going to be dovish next year given what's happening with housing and I think the the trend in core inflation and that's more important to markets is the Fed in 2026 than what the Fed does the next couple of quarters. So I mean overall I think it means pees could go up. Tom, are you more confident in the mag seven idea or the small cap idea? Uh Carl, it's I mean it's an overused word, but I think it is a bit of a barbell. I mean, in the near term, um the the washed out groups we thought would be the beneficiary and and the mag 7 was really leading that because so many of the mag 7 fell peaked earlier and bottom before the S&P did. Um and and we still want to stick with that. But but as I look at the second half, I I think the small caps really have a strong case to be made because as long as we move towards a tariff resolution or the markets feel that way, then I think investors can actually start putting flows back into stocks other than the mag 7. Are you keeping a strategy in which Rivian I mean one part of me says Rivian could be interesting from the perspective of you know obviously a lot of people are anti-Tesla right? We know that. Um, and so they refuse to buy a Tesla under any circumstance essentially. And so if you want to get an EV, I mean, you know, do you want to buy from a traditional automaker that makes internal combustion engines? Probably not. So you want to buy from a company that actually like focuses on EVs, does EVs, and there's not many to pick from outside of Tesla. One of the only options you have is Rivian, right? You also have Lucid, but they're in such, you know, financial situ their financial situation is not ideal at Lucid in my opinion at all. So, if I was if you said I got to get an EV outside of Tesla, I'd probably go Rivian, right? So, maybe they they benefit overall. Now, he also likes SoFi, Crocs, Southwest. How do I feel about those? Southwest. H, you know, I don't love the airlines, but I don't think they're at bad valuations right now. So, I guess it's okay as a trade, right? SoFi, listen, I love SoFi. I think SoFi has great long-term potential, right? I have what, 5,000 shares or so in the public account. You know, if they execute over this next decade, they could become a financial giant. Crocs, you know, the thing that scares me about Crocs is I just wonder if it's a fad, a trend, right? And I'm just not confident that like the sales numbers Crocs is are putting up right now. I'm not confident that they're still going to be doing those numbers in three years from now or 5 years from now. Maybe they are, right? Maybe just as many kids all want Crocs like they have wanted over the past year or two. Or maybe that changes and 3 years from now, 5 years from now, like people aren't interested in Crocs. Or maybe they just get commoditized massively. Like I don't know. And so therefore, I get kind of scared of Crocs that it might just be like a trap, a trap stock where you think like, oh, this is a great company, like look at how much money they make, but then like revenues start to dr downtrend in a year or two from now, right? And then they can just never get back there. Doesn't mean the company goes out of business or something like that. It just means like you just have revenues down trending. Then no one wants to own a stock where the revenues just downtrend downtrend for year after year after year for years to go in the future. So I I do, you know, that at least is a concern. That's what would keep me out of a stock like that is a concern about that. Do I feel confident that that's going to happen to them? No. But I also don't feel confident that they're not a trend or a fad. And so that's kind of scary if tensions go back up in your back pocket somewhere. And how does that how does that read? Well, I mean, I think we're all operating with the realization that there isn't necessarily an endgame in sight for the tariffs. Uh, and I think these court rulings may push us a little closer to the endgame. That's why I think it's a slight net positive, but at the end of the day, uh, you know, we all have to realize, uh, it's still a process, but I I think investors are too pessimistic about the outcomes. I mean, I think we've been a little too pessim the market's been too pessimistic about what tariffs could do. I think we've had a lot of folks that that turned structurally bearish because of Doge. When we look at what's it what's happened in the last couple of months, I think it's it's less more less bark more bark than bite, I guess, is the best way to put it. Okay. But, uh, there's something that scares me here. Okay. And obviously, we're about to get on Tom Lee's uh, big call here, right? And then we'll get into the the Fubo video from just an hour ago or so when Tom Lee went on CNBC and was asked a bunch of questions. But there's something that scares me here, right? He he mentions there about the markets far been far too pessimistic. 100% true, you know, especially in April. Like oh my gosh, like the part market was so pessimistic. It was ridiculous. You would have thought the whole tariff drama was like guaranteed to stay and it was just like, you know, the end of the world. Like literally the way the market was acting was acting like it was the end of the world. Like the NASDAQ fell, you know, it lost around a quarter of its value like that. Like like like that. Like a quarter of its value. Not like it went down 3%, 5%, 7%. No, it lost a quarter of its value. In a matter of weeks, not in a matter of several months, not in a matter of several years. We're talking in a matter of weeks. It lost 25% of its value. Far too pessimistic, 100%. But something scares me. And let me tell you this. We start talking about this market hits new all-time highs and then we blow through all those all-time highs this summer, right? and a lot of excitement keeps kind of building into late summer. I do worry that the market could then get too optimistic and we could be setting up for a dramatic major fall in the market in the fall time similar to what happened in 2018. So that's just something that's a little concerning out there, which keep in mind if that does happen, it'll be a great buy the dip opportunity if that happens this fall, which is certainly no guarantee, right? And if we do have just an overwhelming amount of optimism come in the market over the summer, we blow through all-time highs and just new alltime high after new alltime high, it could set up for a hedging opportunity come, we can call it August, September, maybe October. kind of getting ready for some some fireworks there because you know the market has this this this tendency nowadays to get far too pessimistic and far too optimistic and it it happens in a matter of you know 6 to 12 months. It's not like you have to wait years and years for this like you used to back in the day. It's 6 to 12 months and you know