Overview
This lecture introduces game theory as a framework for analyzing strategic decision-making in adversarial and cooperative situations, especially as applied to security studies and international relations.
Introduction to Game Theory and Security Studies
- Security studies often analyzes adversarial relationships using models from social science.
- Most introductory models focus on two participants in a dichotomous (two-sided) setting.
- Game theory underlies many of these models, focusing on strategic thinking to maximize advantage.
Basics and Key Examples of Game Theory
- Game theory is about predicting and responding to the actions of opponents in a strategic setting.
- In game theory, new information and moves continually reshape the possible outcomes.
- The classic "Princess Bride" scene illustrates rational decision-making and how unforeseen variables can disrupt plans.
Zero-Sum Games and Examples
- Zero-sum games are situations where one participant's gain is another's loss.
- Tic-tac-toe is a simple zero-sum game where players aim to win or at least block the opponent from winning.
- Chess is a complex example where every move creates new variables and options.
Nash Equilibrium and Non-Zero-Sum Games
- John Nash introduced the idea that self-interest is flexible and influenced by changing "governing dynamics."
- The Nash equilibrium is a state where no participant can improve their outcome by changing only their own strategy.
- The "A Beautiful Mind" bar scene demonstrates how collective outcomes can benefit all, not just individuals.
The Prisoner's Dilemma
- The prisoner's dilemma pits individual self-interest against collective benefit, with options for cooperation or betrayal.
- Four outcomes exist: both remain silent, both inform, one informs while the other stays silent, and vice versa.
- Rational actors are most likely to inform, accepting a suboptimal outcome to minimize personal risk.
Rational Decision-Making and Probability
- People must identify all available options and evaluate both their own and others' interests.
- The Monty Hall game show problem shows that probability and reevaluation based on new information can change strategy.
- Functional rationalization involves adjusting decisions as scenarios evolve.
Applying Game Theory to International Relations
- Game theory assumes states act in their self-interest to maximize advantage and avoid worst-case outcomes.
- In complex, multi-player scenarios, participants seek the best available outcome, even if not ideal.
Key Terms & Definitions
- Game Theory — the study of strategic decision-making among rational actors.
- Zero-Sum Game — a situation where one person's gain equals another's loss.
- Nash Equilibrium — a stable state where no player can benefit by changing strategy alone.
- Prisoner's Dilemma — a scenario where individual self-interest leads to a worse outcome than mutual cooperation.
- Governing Dynamics — changing factors that influence self-interest in game theory.
- Functional Rationalization — adapting goals and strategies based on updated scenarios and outcomes.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Review returned homework and check posted grades.
- Compare essay feedback with the sample Conley essay in course content.
- Contact the instructor with any questions about summaries or assignments.