Transcript for:
Market and IPO Overview

What's going on everyone? I hope that we all had a fantastic trading day today. As you probably know, Figma is popping off. The new hot IPO ended up coming onto the market today at a pretty insane price of $85 per share, which is 158% above its $33 IPO price. So, we'll be going over that situation quite a bit. We'll also be going over why the overall market dropped today. The SPY broke through many key support levels as we fell off. So, we'll be exploring that. We'll be talking about the August 1st tariff deadlines along with Apple and Amazon's earnings. So, stick with us. Make sure you're subscribed and let's have a great video. [Music] First and foremost, Figma captured everybody's attention today in the stock market. We can see right here it more than tripled in its debut after selling shares at $33 in its IPO. I know a lot of people got some shares and obviously whenever it hit the market at 85 and even went up over $100, a lot of people were banking off of this one. So I know a lot of people out there are like, "Okay, let's look at Figma. What what really are they?" Right? Figma is a powerful design tool that lets teams collaborate in real time on UI, UX, and prototyping projects. If we actually go to their website, we can see that they actually use AI to accomplish a lot of these goals. Whether you're a designer, web designer, developer, stakeholder, or etc., Figma makes it easy to create, share, and iterate all in one place. And like I said, they use AI a lot. We can see right here in the center of the screen, you know, you can pretty much just type in something and then it will do it. Whether you want like a something to scroll, you know, and you'll see some things right here. make my cursor reveal an image, right? Uh so it it'll just do it for you like that. Uh you know, there's multiple different things that you can do. This one says make an infinite canvas gallery. And then you can see in the background here, everything's kind of like uh like infinite back there. So very interesting. You can do a lot of different things with uh with Figma. They've been used by lots of companies like Microsoft, Netflix, New York Times, Slack, Stripe, Zoom, Airbnb, Duolingo, Dropbox, and more. So definitely a pretty insane company I would say right here. And as we go back to their stock, it's ticker symbol FIG, not to be confused with uh with the popular cookie out there. Um looking at it, it's up to almost 128 here in after hours. This is over 275% higher than its IPO price of $33. That is just an insane jump. If we even just go from like the low from when it started trading to the high of after hours here, that's a 50% jump just here today alone. So, Figma is a very popular stock in the short term and it is in play. But a lot of people ask, okay, what's going on with Figma? Like like it's an IPO, right? I'm not used to seeing IPOs. So, how can this play out? If we go to the daily chart, we go and we go back to some of these other companies that have IPOed in the past that might not have had the best IPOs. like let's just say Snapchat, right? We can go all the way back to 2017 whenever Snapchat IPOed and they actually dropped off a lot. So, as we can see here, Snapchat, they IPOed up around that $24 mark or at least that's where they started trading, right? Over the next couple trading days, they had a lot of hype and they ended up going higher up to around 29 almost pushing $30 there. But over the next subsequent months, they ended up falling back down. I remember at the time Snapchat was one of the more popular IPOs. Um, and of course there was a lot of hype associated with it. Uh, pretty much from the price it started trading to the low, it dropped down almost 80% there. Now I know that that was like a year and a half, two years later, uh, even within just a few months, the stock fell down over 50%. So be a little careful. You know, I I always like to go back and look at some of these other IPOs. Another one is Uber. You know, if we go to Uber on the daily chart, go back to 2019 whenever they IPOed, that's like the same story. You know, they had a lot of short a short-term hype. The stock did move and it was in play for a few days, but ultimately it ended up falling down over 38% within a few months and 66% all the way down there at the low. So, you know, you got to take these IPOs with a grain of salt. They're not all going to be perfect, but in the short term, they have been. You know, if we look at some IPOs like CRCL, one of the more popular IPOs in the short term, this one has actually ran up over 330% since hitting the market. Coreweave itself ran up 370%, but it did have a choppier road, at least at the beginning there after uh after the initial first few days. But I like to go back and look at these and show you guys maybe some of the other IPO moves from the past just so you can have a bit of an idea. and also maybe look at FIG with a grain of salt, right? It's very easy to get caught in the hype and to just try to follow the train and hey, while it's there, you know, that could be a possibility, but just be careful if it does start to turn over like what we saw with Snapchat or Uber, then just obviously be aware and be ready for the possibility there. Now, Figma, obviously, you know, we showed that they do a lot of stuff with like web design, maybe designing pictures, photos, uh you know, you name it, right? They do a lot of different things out there, even like coding. Like if we scroll down here, um there's lots of stuff with coding and like web design and uh things of that nature. So, whenever I think of this, a lot of people are asking, okay, is Adobe doing is Adobe going to be okay right now? And honestly, Adobee's already been under a lot of fire. We can see over the past few years, ever since Adobe peaked out in 2021, it has done nothing but just chop around or fall. Now, granted, there's been some good opportunities there, but from that high, it's down 48% and from the recent peak, it's down 44%. I personally think Adobe already has a lot of competition. And Adobe uses AI, kind of like Figma. They have something called Adobe Firefly, but then again, it might not be as popular as other AI products. But I wanted to bring this up because Adobe actually did start breaking a very key support here in the short term right around $360. And while there's opportunity playing Figma, you know, with increased competition, there could be opportunities possibly playing Adobe as well. But kind of switching topics and getting into the overall market today because I know a lot of people were very taken aback at the SPY and the way in which it's falling. Look at the daily chart. Actually, SPY has posted four red candles in a row. Now, it doesn't mean all these days were necessarily terrible, right? We did have some upside action towards the end of the day yesterday and some positivity with those earnings and we have some big earnings tonight that we're definitely going to go over as well. But the SPY really pulled back here and a lot of people are kind of scratching their heads and going, "Okay, after that big earnings run yesterday, why did the spy pull back and break all of these key short-term supports?" And really, I think that there's a combination of things going on. Number one, the market's very overextended, right? Number two, we're just in a time of the year where the market's historically pretty weak. You know, this is the last day of July. Tomorrow is going to be August 1st. We can see looking at the data right here that August 1st is not really the best or the first half of August, I should say, is not the uh the best first half out of any month out there. It's definitely towards the bottom of the list here. So, that's a worrying sign. Number two, I know we looked at this data as well. Um, whenever you're looking at the second term of a president in a post-election year, there has been negative returns in August 100% of the time since 1950. I think that's a pretty striking statistic. And I'll definitely be watching this August very carefully. And then number three, we even have VIX seasonality. And I know that we've looked at this a lot in the short term, but I think it's something to look at and to definitely take to heart because even last August, we saw a pretty big dip out of the SPY, albeit, you know, there was a great uptrend mixed in. Let's actually go to the spy. Let's go to the daily chart here and go back to August of last year because I know that it was something that definitely threw traders off for a little while, but then again, we got that big V-shaped recovery. And right here is August is that August dip. Now there was a dip like towards the end of July too which bled over into the beginning of August but nonetheless uh again there was that volatility there like right around the beginning of August. So just be a little aware the first half of August is definitely not uh the one of the best first halves out there and there's a lot of data supporting uh let's say an increase in volatility in the short term. that doesn't necessarily mean the spy has to like crash and burn, but then again, we always like to look at everything out there so that you guys are aware. I personally wish that the uh the bull trend would continue, but hey, we have to adapt or die, right? Um but, you know, getting a little further into the spy. I know it broke down through some key levels today. The low of day from yesterday was like right around 63150 and there are some key supports coming up. If we go to the hourly chart, which we kind of have to do to, you know, see far enough back on the spy right now, that 631 mark is pretty crucial. There's been a few bounces right around there. So, if the spy really gives out at this range tomorrow, I'm going to be looking for more downtrend. At the same time, we've been eyeing up a key trend line on the SPY as well. And we can see that the trend line is starting to break and and give out a little bit. um in the short term. Earlier this week on Tuesday, we actually saw this trend line officially break. Today, another touch happened at the top of the trend line. Now, this was in pre-market. And again, I'm not saying that the trend line is making the market go down by any means. But it is interesting how good this trend line is lining up and how good of a rejection that we got today whenever it seemed like there was really not that much news out there. But looking at other levels even on the spy that are coming up, you know, of course we have our 63150 area which is pretty huge. There's been a few hits there in the short term, but even zooming out even more. I also really like 628 coming up and then even 626. Now 626 I think lines up very well. There's going to be a lot of of small supports and resistances mixed in here. And I think it's going to be very important to note a lot of these down. Even this one here around around 62950. We've seen a lot of hits recently. And I'll show you why these levels are so important. You know, we've been eyeing up the spy a lot lately. I've been naming a lot of levels off over the past few weeks. Today, the spy reacted on so many of these levels. Like, there's been so many touches on all these supports and resistances. So, keep your eyes on these and also and just note them down because there's been a lot of good action and a lot of good opportunities. you know, if you're playing like puts, you know, you can maybe play some puts off resistance or buy calls on support, etc. But lots of good moves either way pretty much at every single level that we've been looking at in the short term. And you know, something else that has been maybe affecting this overall spy downtrend here is Trump, of course, right? Trump today actually extended Mexico's 25% tariffs for 90 days as talks continue. And I know that we've been talking about the August 1st tariff deadline that's been coming up and it uh the press secretary today actually came out and said that countries with no trade deal will hear from the US by midnight. So I think that's going to be a pretty crazy thing. Um of course the August 1 tariff deadline is a pretty set in stone date. I know that they've been saying that they will not adjust that. Uh I saw that, you know, we've extended things out a little bit uh with some specific countries. Um you know, like China has till August 12th, for example. Something got done with Mexico today. But nonetheless, whenever I'm looking at, let's just say, the trade situation, I feel like not that many deals have been done, right? Like we got to this August 1 deadline, not many deals have been done. So I kind of feel like confidence is maybe dwindling a little bit there. that might be uh also playing a factor on the overall market. But all right, it is time for the fun stuff today, which are the earnings. Yes, you heard that right. Apple reported its biggest revenue growth since December of 2021. This is fantastic to see. They had an EPS of 1.47 versus 1.43 expected. That is a pretty good beat there. Just under it, revenue came in at 94.04 04 billion versus 89.53 billion. That is a huge beat whenever you're talking about somebody like Apple beating by almost beating by over $4 billion. That is huge on revenue. iPhone revenue beat. We know that iPhones are one of their most important parts of app of of their business. Uh Cook did say that iPhone revenue was strong because the 16 is more popular compared to the iPhone 15 uh on sale last year. At the same time, they said sales were up strong, double digits versus its predecessor. So, that's pretty good. Um, it looks like that there's a lot of people upgrading to the new one, he says. Nonetheless, iPhone revenue is up 13% year-over-year alone. So, that sounds great. Tim Cook, I can see why you're giving us a thumbs up. Obviously, that's at the uh F1 world premiere, but nonetheless, I still think uh Apple deserves a thumbs up here, and you're going to think so, too, because their stock is very nice in after hours. As we can see, it ran up to $215. Unfortunately, it did reject. Now, it was doing a lot better than this uh honestly just a few minutes ago. As we zoom out, Apple is at a crucial level. You have to go to like an hourly chart, but they have been stuck at this resistance for a long time. Look at all the touches that Apple has had around this, we'll just call it 214 to 216 range, right? All around this range, especially lately, tons of touches, tons of rejections. Will it be able to get through here with these positive earnings? I thought maybe they had a ch a shot to, but then again, it is rejecting back down. So, we'll have to see how things play out over the next couple trading days. But something that definitely had a much much worse initial reaction is Amazon. Amazon pulled back as well. They ran up to 242 momentarily, but did end up pulling back now down to around 224 to 225 before bouncing back up. um you know they're kind of recovering up in the way that like Apple's kind of falling back down. Nonetheless, we'll see where they end up tomorrow. Now, Amazon, they they did have good overall numbers. Like, I'll be honest here. Their EPS was up 33% year-over-year, 1.68 versus 1.33 estimated. That's a really good beat. Their sales were up 13% year-over-year, which is nice. Also beat uh expectations by over $5 billion. Then again, more um more revenue than uh Apple in this case. But nonetheless, um tariffs might be a fear here for investors. You know, whenever we look at Amazon, tariffs are lagging a little bit. I know that they also just had Prime Day in that last quarter as well. And Prime Day was more like a prime week this year. They also had a little bit of weak or light guidance uh for the third quarter coming up. So maybe that's also playing a bit of a role, but the initial numbers looked pretty great. Uh most people are pointing at their guidance for the future, which isn't really the best. Uh you know, if Q3 estimates, if if Q3 does come in a little bit uh less than expected, that could be a negative and exactly a reason why people are maybe selling Amazon down here. Now, looking at Amazon's daily chart and their longer term chart, Amazon's pretty overextended. You know, if we go to Apple, they've been down in the dumps recently, right? They've been stuck. They need to start recovering. Amazon needs to get some fuel to get through this all-time high. Their all-time high is up around $242. And with this rejection in after hours, putting them back around 223 to 225. That's not really the best sign. So, I'm definitely a little worried here that this is going to be forming a lower high or even a double top uh maybe here in the short term. So, I'll be watching for Amazon to potentially continue the pullback, but then again, of course, take earnings moves with a grain of salt. Uh, they can always reverse and go crazy a couple of days after the fact. And there's even a few big earnings tomorrow. I'm not going to say that they're huge or anything like that, but we do have Exxon, Chevron, Regeneron, uh, Dominion Energy, and Colgate all reporting before open tomorrow. I think the oil stocks being Exxon and Chevron will be pretty important to keep your eyes on there. And just like yesterday, we had a pretty fun segment looking at Nancy Pelosi and possibly banning uh Congress people from trading stocks. Today, of course, Donald Trump laid into Jerome Powell, calling him a total loser and saying our country is paying a big price. Of course, he's saying that our country is losing trillions of dollars as Powell's keeping the rates too high. So, as we go forward here, we're going to have to be watching very closely for this situation to see how it plays out. Trump, of course, does not like him, but then again, he can't really uh just take him out very easily. Then again, um we're looking at the economic schedule for tomorrow. We can see on Friday there's the non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate along with the ISM manufacturing PMI. Non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate come out 30 minutes before open. I do think that this could end up impacting the economy and stocks quite a bit. So, keep your eyes on those two. Um, but besides that, you know, it's time for some plays and setups for tomorrow. And with my first one, I'm actually looking at Advanced Money Dispenser or today it was Advanced Money Destroyer. It bounced right off a key 185 resistance and I'm actually watching it back down. I like how it's sitting around this key 175 support uh from today. It actually double bottom there, but we can see that a wick this week extended down to 174 where we saw Amazon bounce on Wednesday morning. Now, this is going to be very significant. Why? Because this is a number one a big level. You know, we've seen lots of touches and bounces on AMD here over the past couple trading days. But if we go to the book map, there is actually a lot of buyers that stacked up at that 174 and 175 mark. And what's pretty cool is that we can see that there's a bit of a dead zone here on the book map between 174 and 170. So if we do start to see more selling pressure come in tomorrow, I'll be watching for AMD to get down into this dead zone where there's not a lot of buyers and for it to get closer to $170. But that's what I'm looking at for tomorrow with AMD. It's more of a short-term play for sure. And shout out the bookmap for the X-ray vision. Check out the links in the in the uh description down below. X-ray or bookmap, I'm calling it X-ray vision now, funny enough. But nonetheless, bookmap can help you identify key supports and resistance levels and also can really help you trading intraday if you're trying to find key targets to sell at or something of that nature. But going back to the charts with my next setup, I'm looking at Roblox for a possible earnings continuation play. Roblox is popping off in the short term. It's up 10.28% today. Uh its high of day is up around 15140 15130. If we see 15130 break, I'll be watching for another move up. There is also another intraday level I identified around 14250. If this gives out and we start to see that break, you could maybe play Roblox up into the high of the day. But nonetheless, I do want to see some good confirmation tomorrow morning of a good continuation coming in here. you know, the afterearnings moves can get pretty crazy sometimes and a bit risky. So, keep that in mind. But with those out of the way, I guess we'll head into today's momentum plays. And with the first one, I'm looking at ticker symbol A to the upside. Be careful saying that ticker out loud. Uh, if you look at $400, this is a very key resistance. If apploving can break above 400, then watch for an upside move. With our next play, I'm looking at NIO also to the upside. I loved how they ran up to $5 today. They were up 7.98%. If they can break out above $5. Then watch for a possible continuation here with NEO. And with the last and final setup, watch ARM to the downside. ARM had a pretty nasty sell-off today, down 13%. Of course, they reported earnings last night. If they break under this low from today around 139, watch them down. They're straddling the key 140 support. And if this breaks down, there could be a good momentum filled opportunity coming into play tomorrow. But those are the three momentum plays. Remember, only play them if they break the levels that I listed. And of course, always use stop- losses and make smart, sustainable trading decisions. Nobody should be blowing up their account on any given trading day. If you did, you are overleveraging and you definitely need to use stop losses and trade a bit smarter. But now it's time for our $771,000 big money trade. [Music] And with today's trade, we're looking at ticker symbol CCJ Kamico. Yeah, CCJ is a pretty wild stock. Uh it's been rising up a lot actually in the short term. We can see CCJ on the daily chart is exploding, but the big money bought the 67 strike puts. It's expiring September 5th of 2025. They put $771,000 into this play. And as we can see, CCJ, like I said, is pretty overextended. Now, as we look at Kamico, they are in a hot sector, right? What Kamako does is that they essentially um they're a huge uranium producer, right? And what's been the hot topic lately? It's been like nuclear energy, uranium, things of that nature. We've been seeing stocks like Oaklo or SMR or other nuclear stocks popping off here. Kind of just like what we're seeing with CCJ. Nonetheless, CCJ turned over very hard on earnings today. I thought it was an interesting earnings move. And as we go through the next few trading days, there could be a possible continuation to the downside. Now, the big money, they did buy the 67 strike puts. This is a little bit out of the money. So, this could mean that they possibly shorted these. Now, if we do see CCJ pull back over the next few trading days, it could come down to test 67 pretty easily given how volatile CCJ is. And also, whenever we look at CCJ and we scroll back here on the daily chart, we can see that there's a lot of periods, a lot of up and down action with CCJ. I want you to take note of the CCJ candle today. Just take note of how large it is uh from open to close. Even even counting the wick, just look at how large it was. You know, there's been a lot of small red candles, right? Like what I'm showing right now. Uh even over here back in the end of May, a lot of small red candles mixed in on the way up. Let's go back and see what starts happening when they get big red candles come into play. Kind of like what happened in December of 2024. We can see that they were running up and you know as they were running they posted a huge red candle off of $60 resistance again a big resistance there as well and then they pulled back and the pullback ended up lasting for multiple months. Now again, the big money trader here is not looking for a multimonth pullback, right? Given the uh September 5th expiration, but nonetheless, I think off of today's red candle, it could be a decent opportunity. And it also goes to show you that some of these moves can be pretty significant, whereas like, you know, I know a lot of people are probably saying 67 is so far out of the money. Well, you know, this stock is a pretty crazy one and when it pulls back, it can pull back quite a bit. So, uh, keep your eyes on CCJ. I thought it was a very interesting big money trade. But now it's time for our member of the day. Shout out to Artemis. Let's go Artemis. Thanks for posting up profits today. I like to see it. And also, thanks for joining up on the Stocked Up live stream. If you guys are interested, check out the Stocked Up Live YouTube channel. Make sure you subscribe to that. Uh it's separate from the nightly videos, but we like to have a lot of fun there in the morning when the market opens. And we're always looking for the hottest stocks and best movers out there. So, feel free to join up on that. But shout out to you, Artemis. Nice $475 gain on those Nvidia calls today. I'm glad to see it. And it was just a great day in general in the profits chat. I mean, oh my gosh, it was hard to pick one. S with $12,000. Benny here uh being up $46,000 for the month. Shout out to all of you guys today and even those of you that ended up hitting on FIG like Ryan down here making uh $681. If you're interested in joining up in the stocked up community, check out the link in the description down below to sign up for the trading floor. We have a lot of tools, big money trades, swing trades, theta trades, uh day trades of course from the surgebot and multiple other tools and data points that you guys do not want to miss out on. So definitely check that out. But other than that, let's have a great rest of the trading week. Tomorrow's the final day, so let's make it count. [Applause]