[Music] namaskar and jind i'm Gorav Savant india was able to sort out Pakistan in operation Synindhur but is there a bigger challenge for India what's happening on the other side of the China wall how strong is the Chinese army the PLA People's Liberation Army we've seen the Chinese equipment is that actually the best that China has to offer because in opsindur Indian assessment was that the Chinese equipment isn't as good as they claimed it would be chalantak and who better than left general raj shukla former army commander at track to tell us more about what's happening on the other side of the Chinese wall of the China wall general Shukla welcome on India today so thank you and I hope you do well and all the best good luck thank you very much sir um and you know with God's grace and your good wishes hopefully we will but uh how well is Xi Jinping doing yes so you know China let's look at it this way uh if you just go back a couple of years 2015 2016 was when the strategic competition between China and US started intensifying and it did seem for a while that the China story would exceed the American rejuvenation so I'll just give you two points you know two three points to say say why I say that look at deepse and Qin it has leveled the AI race the Americans thought they were 10 to 12 years ahead of uh China and suddenly deepseek and AI so this you know led one to think that China was not a copycat story there was something deep innovation this that let's look at the military balance In the first island chain on Admiral Paparu's admission so American admission the Chinese ratio of ship combatant ships China to USA is 6.8 is to1 wow over the last year that's how fast they're building their ships and see what they are doing the escalations have increased 300% over last year 2017 they employed two brigades this year they employed 42 brigades wow the amphibious ships which are exercising 2/3 of their fleet is exercising so they it starts from 10% 20% 2/3 next time it may just be the attack so Paparo has been warning that these are no longer exercises they are rehearsals for attack so and all kinds of stuff when it comes to their hardware but I have been observing this and now it's over the South China Morning Post and everywhere else apart from there other issues of real estate collapse unemployment inflation growth being as low as 3% comes this bad news of Z being cornered politically and his PLA letting him down so that's a very big point you're making and I want to pick up on this thread xiinping is called chairman of everything but is that chairman of everything truly being cornered and if I if I pick up one aspect real estate has been written about extensively the real estate collapse why is the PLA and is the PLA collapsing with reports of between 70 to 100 generals being purged in 10 years that's a huge number what would you make of it so they PLA is the personal project of the of Z if you go back 101 15 years Z realized that if China has to grow the PLA was outdated technologically a legard so he invested in the PLA and people say that the PLA has undergone the most massive military modernization in the history of mankind history of mankind now it has to be understood z 10 12 years back used to spend 6 days in the artillery school 4 days in their evasion academy so he nursed it he made mind-boggling changes getting naval air force officers into the central military commission appointing some of his best minds to the rocket force strategic support force see strategic support force it was the world's first effort to AI enable the military he was thinking years and years ahead but what has happened of late he constantly got reports of two three things one is corruption one is taking money for promotions this is a deep malace in the PLA taking you pay your way through promotions and the third was that after 10 years of investments over the last two years when he's going and asking these people that are you ready for the Taiwan contingency all kinds of excuses so 70 to 100 generals have either been sacked or they have leapt to their suicide for three four reasons corruption for incompetence and for not being ready for the Taiwan contingency now just see hundreds not a small number and now the his political rivals huge thao and wja and all they've been saying what is happening to your pa these are all your choices they were not our choices you personally picked them and two defense ministers get sacked and rocket force general and then what happened of late the day I tweeted the week before that I put their names in that tweet he Hung Jun and He Widong yeah so they are all he who something but the point is his closest generals committed suicide or they were executed they were arrested one of them is commander northern theater command it's like our western army commander committing suicide eastern army commander this sets me to think that while their hardware may be good question is their hardware actually good but I'll come to that question so please complete your point but their software is definitely in trouble top generals are caught up in all this and therefore these politicians have chosen their moment to corner him on this central military commission vice chairman G what's his name Zanguza Zanguza Zang Zuzia was not from the Z camp but now he's controlling the shots and these five and two have been accused of plotting against Zanuzia so for the first time in the PLA he's being cornered and now Hu Jin Tao whom he humilated a year back or something 2022 in fact I want our viewers to look at those images how unceremoniously a former president was lifted and evicted from the meeting he's got back and he's got support when Xiao has got support so I'm not saying that there are visible cracks but there are certainly signs of something not being right just just one more point I want to make see why this Taiwan is so important to him our previous presidents so Deng said hide and b Z said loud and proud ah moment and we'll go loud and proud and when he was asked he said enough of wealth now the time has come to convert that wealth into power into strength yeah taiwan PLA taiwan hardware i'll give you one piece of statistics usa today has just seven days of missiles munitions to fight in Taiwan china is churning out 10,000 cruise missiles a week a week hardware admission that the Chinese are zipping past but software failure I'll come to in just a moment sir and I'm very keen to talk about Sindur because Chinese equipment one section of the media or one section of the uh you know experts they're hailing the J10C's and and the PL15s and the others are saying but I want to stay for a moment on he Hungjun and he widong the CMC vice president if the central military commission vice chairman is being driven to commit suicide what does that indicate I'm telling you deeply worrying signs And therefore I really I'm wondering why the Indian media has not picked this up this India today did india today did yes thank you and thank you for highlighting this in the podcast now it needs deeper investigation a off the offline we were talking of intelligence i'll give you an in interesting tidbit about intelligent deep seek it shocked the world you ask any chap in the computer space IT space American he will tell you we it didn't come as a surprise we were seeing them coming to that who was taken by surprise the national security community if the American national security community couldn't spot deep sea what about us they are our neighbor true we should be looking at these things so you just see how weak intelligence across national security communities is if you didn't spot deepsek these Americans didn't the lesson is what goro that we have to step up our game in all these issues intelligence and all absolutely and the professionals know about it all these things are important now if there was a revolt by former premier and and reformist Wabao what is your assessment of um Hu Jin Tao october 2022 was when he was ushered out and rather unceremoniously is he now as former president and in China they anyway say that elders are respected she didn't respect the elders uh is he in in a sticky on a sticky wicket there so they go I mean the Chinese system is opaque but in the Chinese system if you go back to the visuals dispute bureau composition he was assured that there will be certain names now when he wants to pick that up to see you notice so it was a breach of promise so they may be a communist country but they also have deals deals are to be honored why did you violate the deal you backstabbed us internal gatherings i'm told that there is very open speech making so while they may be communists internally they speak and internally they also have stature they have backers bothja bao and all I think one month back there were a series of meetings where they hounded Z on him and the words they used was let us get us back to transparency rule of law by Chinese standards and collective leadership and not individual leadership you picked a very good point because the Chinese uh apex political apex had concluded that we should no longer have personalities like Mao because cultural revolution they killed millions and all that so leadership should be collective so in the previous eras of Jangzy men and all while there was a face it was collective z changed that became too powerful it seems that his power is receding now and It has to combined with some serious ailments he's going through some some surgery so you know everything has come together health PLA but what will hurt him most is the PLA because he really invested in the PLA and it has let him down at least in terms of corruption and all these so let's for a moment focus on PLA there are analysts who are now saying and you've been you've been tracking PLA very closely it's very brittle it may look strong but or what is that your assessment see my assessment of PLA is like this if you go by their capacities investments example Chinese manufacturing Civilian capacities in manufacturing in 2002 were half of that of USA civil by 2022 their manufacturing capacities civil become twice of that of USA in consequence their military-industrial complex today is five to six times more efficient than USA to 10 to,000 cruise missiles a week manufacturing capacities j36 million drum million drone swarms are being swarmed along the LAC 5G military robotics but part of it is cognitive warfare the true chaps who have churned out their drone mothership is the Ukrainians because they worked on it for three years ai enabled and the whole world is thinking they have gotten drone just beginning an AI so their air forces suspect because they really haven't you know they they've never been tested in an air war J10 J17 they don't seem to have done too well so I say that they have some capacities some of it is social media fluff what is happening in their generalship ship is very welcome news but you can't plan on the basis that they will crumble so you have to plan on facts yes and then if they crumble good for us I just you know did we assess that Pakistanis are stronger than they were the manner in which they fought on day one and the manner in which they just collapsed on May 910 let's look at the military hardware of the Pakistani Kurtsy China j10c fighter jets 2021 36 uh uh aircraft hq9 SAM system 2019 1 hq9 SAM missiles 70 since 2019 um the the CH 4A the uh medium altitude long endurance drone since 2019 10 the PLC 181 155 mm SPG self-propelled gun 2018 onwards 236 winglong two uh armed drones 48 Winglong one armed drone since 2019 48 the radars and you've studied radars so extensively they're um they're you know 150 air searcher radar the YC2A the HQ7 SAM system and I have this entire list YLC2 YC 6 YC18 gap filler radars uh the HQ9B HQ16 HQ7 shads FM80 FM90 FN6 manable air defense system but I'll simplify it for you you name one equipment on the park inventory which is not Chinese 80% Chinese 90% 90% Chinese when I was commanding the division in Baramula infrastructure they are making their military bridges infra it doesn't surprise me one bit pakistan army is nothing but Chinese army in manpower in equipment what they have done of late is Turkey is Ardogan was see we missed this Ardugan came to Pakistan Indonesia Malaysia he's positioning himself as the new calip califf and califf with western proficiencies to NATO army NATO military but Islamic world and when he visited these three countries he did major military deals our press didn't catch it in Pakistan the corvette and I think drones he just had come two months back so Pakistan is China and Turkey that shouldn't surprise us one bit these people who are questioning us you know some losses have occurred bharti said it serious Yes we will not quantify it because you don't quantify you tell me what did you lose argument losses but who are naked vulnerable exposed Khan when we were in my career we hit these bases only in war games these two not what you're saying I commanded 30 opposite 30 it is not a merkas it is a training academy with swimming pool obstacle course mind training ring you know when mind training range mind training mind training with conference halls classrooms it will push a put an IM to shame when Abinand was not being released there was a thought of firing brahos general raat had come to my headquarters and we had discussed whether we will can engage it but abind got released is this is dream a we were told that if you touch Punjab you know he will not spare you What did he do what did he do or 10th morning May when Nur Khan base was hit and on reliable information I can tell you their command and control complex was hit air power that's why the DJMO came scurrying for cover for uh truce if your J107s were so good where were there on the second third and fourth night tell me where was your fancy HQ9 so it was a complete collapse of the air force any sharp military mind will know it complete collapse i'm reiterating the reason is you know we we used to talk of limited air superiority here they had lost air control can you imagine your skies are bare it's bare they know it because they actually prided themselves on the fizaya and we must grant it fizaya held on the first night fiziah held held on the first night the supremacy or superiority or the pride of the Pakistan Air Force the other thing is since you've raised it we are very poor in strategic communications when he whatever losses he inflicted on the first night Orurange was doing a podcast with air chiefs and all and selling it to the world what has happened in our case since we were a little late why that we should correct what happened that by the time we sent out our messages uh the narrative in the west had hardened but the west why does the west dislike us but I'll come to that question in just a moment because uh you know that that's a topic I really want to talk on But we will digress i want to but we must come to the west i want to make some points about the west okay you know since you mentioned Chinese equipment the Indian air force okay day one he had his J10 C's and he has his J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J JF7s which in China doesn't use every we have about if I'm Pakistan I I hit you four time but boss on the fifth day to you were lying knocked down true so when a chap is knocked down do you say true so the the wise military analyst should ask this now I come to this west i mean I really question their IQ one is for this will you go by the outcomes or this clerical question are you serious military analyst the other thing I question them this nuclear theology see I'll give you an argument i was a left-hand colonel when Parakram happened 2002 and I was in Ratnuak right next to Kaluch kaluch okay now what happens you remember terrible i covered it this generation will not know but you must you must describe it from a soldiers hitting parliament was as bad as Palan the country was shocked general Vij writes in his book 8 kilome army headquarters say they were told that parliament is under siege we could have lost some very political now when you are mobilized and you are threatening them with war soldiers sleeping soldiers women children including a child including a child including a child could there be a graver provocation prime Minister Wash said I was a left colon we thought three days and nothing happens what happens now you just see understand this and then get the west these nuclear weapons are not nuclear museum pieces they are not to be you know we will use them now look at this what word shall I use for them the the juvenile west the innocent west washington gets scandalized complices exists and their media our media lectures the Indian state and says you are irresponsible you are threatening war in a nuclearized subcontinent you are being irresponsible and we say oh we are being irresponsible good strategic restraint and now let me tell you there's somebody whom I respect see in Kaluchek what happens how they wave the nuclear rattle this is very important to understand just one sing he writes in the book that the purpose of paracam was to contain terrorism without conflict just decode it for me what does it mean with a chap like Pakistan do they understand any language then then he says the purpose of parakam was to assangege the feelings hurt feelings of the Indians and the third point is extremely important he says my most taxing challenge as a defense minister was to teach restraint to my service chiefs imagine now a service chiefs meant to exercise restraint or they meant to war fight now you see this west party narrative is bought by the west we also buy it in the army strategic restraint became a matter of highbrow intellect so if you were a you know well- read soldier you said strategic restraint if I am a clever Pakistan very such was the mood and frustration of those times that Arun Sh made that famous thing he said when he was asked he said you know it is not an eye for an eye not a tooth for a tooth for one eye both the eyes for a tooth the whole jaw absolutely you have to understand the background which is what has happened right now which has happened second point another luminary let's say made fun of friend fun of the instrument of force very interestingly he But he's right right he was right and then there was professional advice kps Gil gil said you will never win the war on terror by chasing terrorists or merely chasing terrorists which is what we have done you will win it by overwhelming the adversary absolutely you will realize how opsindur is so significant because it has converted the mood the frustration the despair even the wisdom of those times into a new strategic reality so I say my conclusion about opsindur is two it has underlined the utility of force we have understood what force can do and two it has called this school boy nuclear bluff on terror school boy nuclear bluff and here I again get my western counterparts tell me what is this nuclear theology nuclear weapons are to be used when you are threatened existentially these ms were using the rattle to launch a nuclear go on a nuclear ramp uh terror rampage can this be any any logic in this should they have questioned the logic or said no no no no no nuclearized subcontinent this is the nonsense now what has the government prime minister Modi and the current dispensation done they have said they boss terror is no longer a lowcost option so slow you do it n Khan will be it this is what has changed every and we'll do a separate podcast on it because I was anchoring I anchored through the night both when the terror bases were hit and subsequently when 11 Pakistan says more than 11 of their air bases and radar stations were hit and then when I met some of the soldiers who hit them including Pasur and Chunan and army operation army PJ army did a great job so while air force walks away with a cake and doing a stellar job good air force has done a stellar job but I'm told of the nine targets seven were hit by the seven and I I met those soldiers who hit something is always magnanimous doesn't take credit but I went down on ground and met them the Pakistani counterattack incidentally when they used their high-speed missiles um they also tried to target some vital assets vital points both they were intercepted fortunately but again that Chinese system the Chinese missiles didn't work so even if they're building as you said 10,000 missiles if those missiles are intercepted so therefore you tell me the J10 Janari insurgents have brought down a J7 but JF7 China is not flying hardware Pakistan both is good news for us but see now what have they done this is what we have to see now what is the new trinity 40 J35A stealth HQ19 not HQ919 KJ500 new AD system but you can't plan on this basis of course you have to plan at least the Indian military is told that you must never underestimate your adversary true so I will say don't underestimate them but the military component of the power differential with China is $450 billion $450 billion now there are limits to valor so the Indian state has to decide can we spend more should we spend more and here I'll draw your attention do pelle two young Indian economists so not the old school ones they wrote a very good article saying that this guns versus growth is a false debate one but more interestingly they said investments in defense quoting American peerreview journals and all have a fiscal multiplier close to two this is economy economist saying that so they are saying that it is a misnomer and you must get him on your show defense may it adds one rupee to your GDP oh absolutely whatever you've been told all these years defense is is a wastage of money so we must pick these lies and I'm saying revisit the the metrics of your economic statecraft or because my favorite line deterance may be costly but wars are costlier ask the Ukrainians so all these issues need to be revisited so I'm saying there is very good news 100 generals getting sacked JF17 not working J10 not working but you can't base your planning on these parameters No but you know one they're being sacked two they're committing or they're being driven to committing suicide or dying by suicide or they are being killed either by clo those close to she or those opposed to she so for example you were talking about you know he Hungjun and pardon my pronunciation uh the deputy chief of CMC died by suicide within a year of appointment predecessor uh Admiral Meow Hua he too was purged uh and he was seen as someone who was loyal to Xiinping so when someone loyal to Xiinping is being removed and his promotion had been fasttracked what does that indicate so you know that is all part of Chinese palace intrigues and China phrase that to scare the lion kick the monkey so if you want to get at Z kick his left hands so all this is going on over there but the serious point is that you see what we know call as political military con convergence no strategic military system can be built on palace intrigues there has to be trust between the CDS and the prime minister between the CDS and the Raksha Mantri which leads to good decisions cohision so we have all that advantage our biggest advantage people don't realize is a professional military under political control absolutely pakistan is a unprofessional military bucking political control i I and you are two generals this time I'll make you the Chinese general i hope you'll accept it the fact is so these are all good signs so I also want to now come to from generals to their ministers november 2024 there were reports that quoted intelligence officials saying Admiral Dung Jun uh China's minister was being probed for corruption their defense minister then when she took power in 2012 he promoted all these 31st Army Group uh generals he brought his people to the top lee Shong Fu removed as defense minister October 2023 the statement made severely polluting military procurement system so their generals are corrupt their ministers are corrupt so exactly you see when Z came to power he came to power on the slogan of not only the flies but also the tigers also the tigers and he said I will get my men and I will take out corruption it was a major plank with him so what is your political locust standai what was this whole mission about flies and tigers so he's being questioned on multiple fronts real estate m so these are certainly bad days for the Chinese but let me tell you one more thing one last thing china one western guy wrote a book on China the bubble that never pops and he says China downfall theory that is true i may also be victim of one of those but of late I'm seeing serious strains in it but the point is you have to keep a very close watch on PLA because Chinese I am very clear China one tiger on a hill they are going to take it take this fight to the finish who so what is their priority taiwan or India or these you know as they say that um uh the these five fingers they want uh they want Tibet they want Ladaku they want Arunachal Pradesh Nepal Bhutan they said they are the five fingers and Tibet is the palm do they actually I no but would they focus on this or would they focus on Taiwan see we must focus on one Chinese saying which loosely translated is like this it says the first time I slap you it is my fault the second time I slap you it is yours oh absolutely so we have been slapped once in 62 now I make this point for the first time in history you have the world's number one and number three economies in PPP terms first time in history growing in close proximity and now no Himalayas himalayas have been breached by technology no buffer like Tibet m your geostrategic trajectories are bound to clash the only way to keep this intersect peaceful is by investing in deterance and not hoping that nothing will happen because that hope did what it did to us in 1962 when Mr neu was told and he said no no no MA will take care and some he wanted to disband the army at one point all that and he died a broken man so I was an army commander during Galwan so two years before Galwan or one year when all this buildup was taking place in the WTC each time we asked by what is this buildup being taken we were told no the word was no no his primary orientation is Taiwan orientation then we were told you know these agreements they can't be breached but they'd already been breached in 2017 in Dam but here to he breached them with impunity with impunity impunity so Baba never trust all this primary orientation Taiwan this is all that highbrow intellect primary or it sounds very good and um they have never been breached general they are breached so I'm saying the only thing which works with the Chinese is deterren after galwan when we have hit them at many places and you would know that it's never been made public they were driven to do what they did in Kazan so the lesson with China is deterrence invest in deterrence and not hope and see now one more thing about China there is no evidence but I am very clear what is China doing to us it is saying they one tiger on a hill sayabla you know when the prime minister was in Kazan you see the readout the readout said multipolar world but quiet on Asia india says multipolar world multipolar Asia they keep quiet on that they are very clear it is one tiger on a hill good test your equipment laboratories with him so here you have terror Pakistan and Turkey and China m terror if you've been following Gorav I think last week or before that at least I saw it for the first time the formation of the Taliban Kashmir so you now have TTA TTP TTK I'm telling you at this point they will be plotting something I have no doubt in Yahul Jadu what is worse and I've been saying this for the last one or two months we have a new national security reality in Bangladesh in Bangladesh you just see few Look at this whole business the ISI chief has visited three to four times makia terrorist jamats Islamists look what they are doing to you know the minorities Hindus Rainda Gharal suddenly la this guy start seeing the land locketness of the seven states lal monar air base the Bangladesh inventory is 70 to 75 Chinese the Rakin corridor will get weaponized for terror fueled by drug i am reasonably certain the next terror attack will come from Bangladesh what will you do yeah to either Pakistan Bangladesh China instabilities in Myanmar a problem now if I'm China and then there is this 400 ship navy which is not going to patrol its coastlines no so we have to realize that we are in a very grim strategic environment when you look at the situation on ground uh in Obsendur you know you you gave the example that you hit the monkey and scare the tiger uh there's also that other saying that you slaughter the chicken to scare the monkey if we've slaughtered the chicken in Obsendur does the monkey get the signal because how many air bases do they have in occupied Tibet uh if we can take down 11 bases in Pakistan uh how many bases god forbid should the balloon go can be taken down and does he have the air defense system i mean I'm only speculating as a total civilian layman to ask you no no no very very very apt question so see I look at it and if you can take down his access to Tibet so my answer to that is this that I don't think that we have a threat from the LAC my answer we have rebalanced sufficient troops me armor logistics force multipliers which he thinks is aggressive he may think so but we know what we are doing the only thing where he's beating us is in persistent surveillance AI drones swarms rocket force strategic support force look at his nuclear posture so in this technologicallydriven domains we are behind so theory that now that you have got a very robust posture along the lac and your startups have grown for 10 years now they are ripe you use some of these startups to give technology to the lac the posture plus the technology will is good enough to provide failed proof deterance along the lac only m as far as the larger China challenge is concerned in technology AI all that stuff he's good you have to acknowledge he's leading in quantum we must get into what I call donant hide and bide invest in that so fail proof deterrence along the lac make sure that doesn't fall and that can be done and the larger challenge we have to invest and build so I make this point you know at the end of it when I was young we were told India strategic outlook outlook a peaceful external environment a benign internal environment and focus on the growth of your 143 cr citizenry good idea first class except it's not happening this is in the real world india has to learn to plot its rise through multiple crisis conflict and confrontations sindur is only the beginning and the debates will go i'm saying not episodic nourishment of the military but enduring capacities and through made in India equipment and as far as possible certainly and critical operational gaps you'll have to do with that so it is entirely doable and what we should not do what Pakistan is doing we should focus on our growth focus on technology technological renaissance we have talent absolutely this is our moment we should just be careful on the national security front otherwise you know this journey through Amrit Khal is not going to be a smooth ride but can we get to a vix bat i have no doubt provided we are little cautious about our national security about these investments but there are challenges i'm also of the view that our strategic environment may be as grim if not grimmer than Israel you tell me who has these kind of threats true so we really have to pick up our game in national security that's the larger point but and that's exactly why the conversations are very interesting there a lot of those conversations are happening uh for example it's it's a peopledriven initiative that you must invest in your cavary engine so that you have your domestic fighter jet engine so you in the interim you may have to buy an engine whether you get it from France or Russia for your fighter jets but then we're also focusing on made in India and now let's be honest and now let's be honest see there's a lovely line in Hindi which says sahika sahus or sahika v both so you took the engine so let me say I'm making this point aka is not happening with these 2.5 lakh engineers true if you want to get AMA pay them crores so flexible recruitment models for our h anddo startups quantum shum they are hiring engineers the competition is different let's take technology another issue I'll give you one one piece of data 2003 to 2007 in all critical emerging technologies there are 65 of them tabled by SP Australian strategic policy institute the sole superpower USA leads in 60 out of 65 Five but then China does its thousand talents plan diaspora strategy by 2019 China is leading in 57 out of 65 look at the dramatic inversion in technology so can India not pick 10 technologies and say and one thing I'll say technological innovation has picked up but it's not going to happen unless we deregulate if system it has to change it is meant for a different era or it will kill innovation it will kill energy and enterprise financial adviser system you're saying has has to go and I'm appealing to them but you make it otherwise it's not going to work for the benefit of this podcast um do you think the Chinese army is at war with itself is that what is happening between various gangs and groups and generals within the Chinese army because I was reading somewhere so there's a there's a shi if I'm pronouncing that correctly there's a Shanti gang there's a Fujian clique and they are going after each other see the way the Chinese system works is that each of their generals have a political mentor so they align so there will be people in Z's gang there will be people in Hujint's gang and hope that your guy comes to power you see unlike us which is a very professional military we don't get politically mentored they their system is like that or there's a political commissioner who of from the party because the their army is also it belongs to the party and not to the country you take your gamble so if I'm a bride general I will choose you make a choice and that's the way it happens no but can an army like that and your professional assessment if an army where generals are going after each other and you've seen them up close and personal you saw what happened in Dolam in 2017 you've seen what happened in ' 67 at Natula at Sundurang Chu through through 1980s and '90s you've seen them through and through are they a professional warfighting army or do they only believe in either scaring you or using you know threatening to use their rockets and missiles because when you also start using your rockets and missiles then it's who fights better on day one and day four and are they using elements within our country to weaken us mentally because I've seen so many people in our own country who would like you those intellectual generals I'll talk about intellectual journalists so-called uh and and analysts who would talk about strategic restraint when it comes to Pakistan or pedal Pakistan's agenda uh the amani ashawalas that mati brigade of vaga and those who say Chinese army is way too strong you cannot deal with them so you know what what's the harm if you give up more territory to them i mean that's a specious argument why should you give up territory see if you see them over the last 6 7 8 years in any of these physical contests we have hammered them so physically we are stronger we are more hardy than them there are many stories of but then they say robots and we'll have robots who will fight in high altitude so so we'll come to that so that is one part of it when it comes to professionalism for all the reasons that I have said we are superior see basic problem a co of a battalion is also supervised by a political commisar just put it in India if an infantry battalion is supervised by some member of Congress or somebody how will that thing work so those are inherent problems in in their military so to at least a professional military mind these are major weaknesses palace intrigues 100 generals live these are all very welcome signs because generalship all these things leadership and all matters but that other piece of technology and capacity I will put it like this so actually the Chinese are only 5t tall what they are biologically true but what they do and what we make excuses and don't do makes them eight feet tall by what they do and by what we don't do they become 10t tall system true you know they are autocracy we are a democracy I say open society Closed minds closed society open minds of course the Chinese are just 5 ft tall so the argument is complicated there could be social media fluff there is a lot of weaknesses in their HR system these are plus signs but technologies those things matter now what is the final argument the final argument is go to Ukraine ukraine you have World War I trench warfare blood and gore you have cold war legacy systems but don't forget that cutting edge technology is taking warfare to a new high look at drones absolutely now Chinese are known to be masters of drone but not battleproven not battleproven unless they're not giving their best to Pakistan and saving it for themselves perhaps perhaps uh I think they are they won't give their best look at their whole design this winning fighting has to be seen let's take it to Taiwan i gave you that data 2/3 amphibious force 42 brigades ro dan hypothetically Trump will ask Paparo can you match him paparo will say no no no see I'll give you a larger example which has to be understood how these chaps do it 1948 Mao is waiting to cross the Taiwan straight he says kilome unopposed taiwan will be ours when he says that the Americans send their seventh fleet he backs off uh this is repeated in 58 this time the Americans threaten nuclear weapons he again backs off 1995 when again the Taiwan crisis happens bill Clinton sends two aircraft carriers the Chinese back off for the third time but now they say A2 A anti- excess area denial when they were making these missiles Americans were writing articles how these missiles will miss the ships m today paparo says I cannot send my aircraft carriers into the first island chain because they will be destroyed now if American power can't project into the first island chain what does it do to the geopolitical outcomes and now you just see a very transactional Trump if Trump is told that we will lose blood Trump I have my deep doubts so winning without fighting they haven't fought just by posturing they have told the posed the question to the adversary boss surrender this is the bigger worry and the last time they fought in 79 they were a disaster in they were given a bloody nose in fact I was reporting from Taiwan um when that big threat happened and when Nancy Pelosi visited uh Taiwan I was reporting from Taiwan and I visited the island which is nearest to the Chinese mainland so the Taiwanese army and the government uh they insist that their policy of porcupine uh defense they have so many missiles that we will take the Chinese down at least the first couple of waves of attacks after that will help come or not but will Japan let that happen will other countries let that happen and will America then meekly surrender even if you know Taiwan has fought off the Chinese two rounds or three rounds if you see the recent statements of Hexit and Bridge KBY and all it's very clear they have told Taiwan spend more 10% 10% on GDP 10% is difficult so they have told them keep spend 10% we will see whether we come or not they're leaving it ambiguous with Japan they are firm because they know that if Japan folds up Korea folds up then that is the end of American power so I suspect they will come to the aid of say Japan South Korea taiwan there are question marks very interesting question marks and see why they may let Taiwan go but not Japan and South Korea because if Japan and South Korea fall that will be like the Swiss moment for USA absolutely american power will collapse so I am going I saying that Taiwan question mark you know so with India also they are hoping this Pakistan Bangladesh if you actually ask me if I'm a non-military guy what is the geopolitical risk of a full-fledged war with China i'll say 2% they're not going to fight they will make Bangladesh and Pakistan do all this but in a crisis now see look at the rocket force if we know that 100,000 missiles are pointing at us and we do not have AD and we do not have that what decision will you take so I'm saying create the capacities he will not fight he will back off he will back off and you can grow unfortunately what is the theory why spend now you cannot take care of China at 1.98% of the defense like Maharana Prattab also needed Bhamasha to fight we need our bhamashas right now so if we are sensible about this China is not a threat but sometimes we are not so sensible that's the whole point no I think with with the tragic conversations uh and and now in this interconnected world there's realization now nobody will buy the Hindi chini bhai even if uh anybody tries to force it down our throat that is the new generation the new generation thankfully is far wiser it's not so innocent but I wish they stopped buying the made in China equipment or or everything made in China i mean we seem to still buy everything made in China or we still want those Pakistani artists in our movies i don't understand this at all there is no amanki asha when they want to kill you when when their reason to exist is Gaza hind but see in princ in reality what is the difficulty so we've had 10 years of making India defense we have today about 150 drone companies the tragedy is drone bar components may say 11 are imported and nine are imported from China so that larger military industrial base has to come up we have you know not let that base come up for decades can't be changed overnight this is our problem with China even in the military domain we are so across the world yeah we need to kind of uh completely uh think how we can cut away from that but on this discussion u that that one line which always impresses me about Ramhari Singh Dinker is from Shaki and Shama which I'm told is also your favorite yes you know because Lord Ram also for 3 days he kept requesting the ocean give me way and the ocean didn't now the moment he pulled his bow and arrow the ocean gave way and said how you can cross you know Gorov this point we were making about western elites our elites look at their lack of clarity and look at the clarity that Ramharis Singhar has he was just a street poet just just street street poet but look at the clarity he had on diplomacy state craft and all those uh absolutely when he says what is that common sense so it's not only the brave are respected no yeah obviously and common sense military power not to jack boot around the world but precise calibrated technologically enabled military power see next time what should we do we should not take out the brother-in-laws of Masud Azar or his four wives we should take out Masud Azar himself for that you need even more refined capacities in space so that is the kind of we need more lower orbiting satellites that's where we need to focus we need I will leave that for another day because that's again an area where India needs to focus a lot on LEOs we need to do that they're absent in the LO absent the low earth orbiting all military capacities come only from the LEO though I'm told some projectors on it'll take five to six years but I say this year yeah why this year they need to speed it up but I want to end and and general thank you very much for joining me sir what an outstanding discussion with you we can go on and on and on but perhaps we'll leave great pleasure for another day thank you very much for having me over and all the best to you once again thank you very much sir and I want to end with that line of Ramdari Singh Dink in Shaki and Shamai you have to be strong to be in a position to forgive because nobody respects a weak person a weak leader or a weak country and this we can see from our scriptures our culture our history our civilizational history many thanks for watching [Music]