📈

The Joseph Carlson Show: New Stock Purchase & Financial Updates

Jul 21, 2024

The Joseph Carlson Show: New Stock Purchase & Financial Updates

New Stock Addition

  • Stock Added: Booking Holdings (booking.com)
  • Portfolio: Passive Income Portfolio
  • Reason: High growth potential, global dominance, strong financials, and market valuation

Booking Holdings Overview

  • Largest Online Travel Agency: Comprehensive travel services including flights, car rentals, hotels, and reservations
  • Platform Ecosystem: Owns rentalcars.com, Kayak, OpenTable, etc.
  • Competition: Competing directly with Airbnb and manages a portfolio of companies that offer comprehensive travel services

Investment Thesis

  • Middle Class Growth: Middle class incomes rising, increasing expenditure on experiences beyond basic needs like travel
  • Secular Trend: Increasing travel spending as a long-term trend, not just a post-COVID recovery
  • Profitability: High margins, high free cash flow, low stock-based compensation
  • Market Leader: Dominant player in Europe, competing with Expedia in the US
  • Regulation & Competition: Constant regulatory scrutiny and competition from companies like Google

Financial Metrics

  • Valuation: Low PE ratio (24) compared to S&P 500 (22), high free cash flow yield (~5%)
  • Free Cash Flow: Consistent and growing, $7 billion last year
  • Share Buybacks: Significant reduction in shares outstanding, funded by profits not debt
  • New Dividend: Recently started paying quarterly dividends

Risks

  • Economic Sensitivity: Consumer cyclical stock sensitive to recessions
  • Regulatory Scrutiny: Potential impact from increased regulation
  • Competition: Pressure from other digital platforms and travel agencies

Costco Membership Fee Increase

  • Increase Details: $5 increase for Gold plan to $65/year, $10 increase for Executive membership to $130/year
  • Impact: Likely no significant membership cancellations, expected additional earnings ~$300 million
  • Membership Revenue: High margin revenue stream crucial to Costco’s profitability

Sam Altman’s Luxury Car Controversy

  • Incident: Sam Altman seen driving a Koenigsegg Regera (~$3.8 million)
  • Contradiction: Previous statements on not caring about money or personal wealth
  • Public Reaction: Criticism about the apparent disparity between his statements and actions