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The Joseph Carlson Show: New Stock Purchase & Financial Updates
Jul 21, 2024
The Joseph Carlson Show: New Stock Purchase & Financial Updates
New Stock Addition
Stock Added:
Booking Holdings (booking.com)
Portfolio:
Passive Income Portfolio
Reason:
High growth potential, global dominance, strong financials, and market valuation
Booking Holdings Overview
Largest Online Travel Agency:
Comprehensive travel services including flights, car rentals, hotels, and reservations
Platform Ecosystem:
Owns rentalcars.com, Kayak, OpenTable, etc.
Competition:
Competing directly with Airbnb and manages a portfolio of companies that offer comprehensive travel services
Investment Thesis
Middle Class Growth:
Middle class incomes rising, increasing expenditure on experiences beyond basic needs like travel
Secular Trend:
Increasing travel spending as a long-term trend, not just a post-COVID recovery
Profitability:
High margins, high free cash flow, low stock-based compensation
Market Leader:
Dominant player in Europe, competing with Expedia in the US
Regulation & Competition:
Constant regulatory scrutiny and competition from companies like Google
Financial Metrics
Valuation:
Low PE ratio (24) compared to S&P 500 (22), high free cash flow yield (~5%)
Free Cash Flow:
Consistent and growing, $7 billion last year
Share Buybacks:
Significant reduction in shares outstanding, funded by profits not debt
New Dividend:
Recently started paying quarterly dividends
Risks
Economic Sensitivity:
Consumer cyclical stock sensitive to recessions
Regulatory Scrutiny:
Potential impact from increased regulation
Competition:
Pressure from other digital platforms and travel agencies
Costco Membership Fee Increase
Increase Details:
$5 increase for Gold plan to $65/year, $10 increase for Executive membership to $130/year
Impact:
Likely no significant membership cancellations, expected additional earnings ~$300 million
Membership Revenue:
High margin revenue stream crucial to Costco’s profitability
Sam Altman’s Luxury Car Controversy
Incident:
Sam Altman seen driving a Koenigsegg Regera (~$3.8 million)
Contradiction:
Previous statements on not caring about money or personal wealth
Public Reaction:
Criticism about the apparent disparity between his statements and actions
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Full transcript