hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the fear and greed index if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out into the cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in so I thought maybe it'd be a good time to talk about the fear and greed index because we actually just saw it drop by quite a bit if you're unfamiliar with the fear and greed index it is essentially coming from this website link for the website will be in the description below and you can see that last month we were in greed last week greed yesterday neutral and today we've actually hit the fear level for the first time in quite a while now if you look at the fear and greed index um and you look at at at what really makes it up it's based on volatility Market momentum and volume social media surveys looks like it's currently paused Bitcoin dominance and Trends so when you put it all together you get something that looks like this now one of the things we've said previously is that a lot of times these rallies that you get often will will go to a a fear and greed index in the 90s we saw that happen in in 2019 before the market cooled off for a while I mean even in 2019 I mean again like you know this is the thing I've often made the comparison to 2019 you guys know that deep down I I I I recognize that it's not 2019 and and I know that it's sort of a it's sort of a combination of of what we saw in 2019 but what we also saw in 2021 because while monetary policy is similar to 2019 we hit new we hit new all-time highs similar to you know to 2021 and so I'd say it's probably a combination of both um be that as it may I still can't deny the monetary policy you know similarities of today compared to to 2019 but what we said you know in this rally is that often times you will see it go into the 90 to 100 range um and in the 2020 early 2021 rally you can see it really stayed in that 902 100 range for a long time but in both the 2019 rally and the one we saw earlier this year it only went up there for one or two days now what's interesting if you look when the fear and GD index is just between 80 to 100 it gives you a few more data points and then if you say all right well and we talked about this in I believe the last video we did on the faar and greed index maybe the last couple of videos we did on the last fearing greed index we said well whenever it goes to 80 to 100 how long does it take to get back to say 40 or less um and so if you overlay that onto the chart you will see that it it frequently when you go into the 80 to 100 range it doesn't historically take very long to to get back into the fear stage you saw it in 2019 you saw it even in in 2021 and you also this is early 2021 you also saw it in late 2021 you can also see here when it went into the 80s um we went back down below 40 for a little while so again it's not that you know surprising that you find yourself with the fear and greed index at 30 again because this is what often happens again the market goes you know goes from Fear to Greed and back and forth and back and forth and and sometimes we obviously Trend up in Bull markets and and we climb the wall of worry other times you know the fear is a little bit more Justified and it and it you know sort of brings on a bare market for a while but right now if you look at the raw value of the fearing index the reason why I made the video is because this is a a fairly large drop by the fearing GD index I mean it was I mean it was legitimately at 74 only about 6 days ago and now it's dropped all the way to 30 and so I was like well when's the last time it dropped down to 30 in fact the last time it did so was all the way back over here in September of 2023 so that could be an interesting comparison I also think you know if you look at before that the last time we were in the 30s you'd have to go all the way back to really the beginning of 2023 now I think the thing to also consider is to look at you know is it is it putting in higher highs still is it starting to put in lower highs it's sort of interesting because if you look locally over here you'll see we had a a if you just sort of count this as one we had a high and then a higher high and then a lower high we sort of went into this range for a while in Q3 and then in Q4 the market picked back up again if you look here you can kind of see something similar right where you put in this High then you put in a higher high and then you go to a lower high now the question of course is will it repeat what happened last year or will it do something more similar to 2019 and the the the the difference between 2023 and 2019 is that in 2019 Bitcoin got below the bull Market support band and then it stayed below it for the rest of the year and then it didn't really get back above it until the following year whereas in 2023 we went below it but then once the you know after the launch of the spot ETFs and and everything we saw Bitcoin get right back above it and and and go on another rally where it essentially doubled up on on the prices if not even a little bit more um so again these are important considerations to make and again you know when you look at at 2023 it did look similar um to to some of those phases we had seen in the past as well but just like we had seen in Prior prehab years we had always seen Bitcoin go below the 20we SMA in Q3 of the prehab year it happened in 2011 2015 and 2019 so he said look it's probably going to happen in 2023 it did but unlike 2019 it rallied in Q4 whereas this time in in in 2019 it did did not Rally in Q4 and then it sort of brings up this whole idea of is it going to be you know is it is it going to be like a translated Peak where you have a left translated Peak that occurs a lot earlier in the cycle whether it occurs in Q4 of this year whether it already occurred a month before the having or whether you just get a normal cycle where a bunch of stuff happens in between and then the peak ends up just being in Q4 of the post having year as it was in 2021 2017 and in 2013 I think there is still at least some evidence to suggest that the events of historical Cycles are playing out it's just the timing of of rate Cuts in this cycle is different from when the rate Cuts occurred last cycle um so I I think for now what probably makes the most amount of sense is to keep an eye on the fear and green index because this is a pretty large drop down to 30 we also again we also got a large drop down to 30 back in September of 2023 as well um and and also it was coming off of of a lower height now the main difference between this move over here and this one last year as at least this most recent move actually went up to the 92100 range now it might be interesting to Overlay going to the 90 to 100 range and how long does it take you to get to say you know less than 30 right and in that case you can see that every time we've gone into that 80 to 100 range we have gone you know less than 30 at some point in the not so distant future from that move that has not yet happened again you know with with Bitcoin where it is right now I believe it it is off the the the prior low a little bit right now and and so if it if it holds that low um for the next day or so you could see that fearing grd index bounce back up but that's what I think is is makes the most sense to watch right now you know is it going to play out like we have seen you know we've previously seen this stuff play out where when you go into the '90s it's not that long before you go say less than 30 um and and really I mean even less than 20 is something that that that could be seen um you can see that going less than 10 did not occur after the first 2021 top it only occurred after the the latter the 2020 the second 2021 top that occurred in in November rather than April um so you know that's where we are right now with the fear and GRE index and you know I think you know I I will certainly keep an eye on it um you can also do interesting things right like apply moving average to this stuff you could apply a a 30-day EMA if you want and and look at it like that and and try to find some similarities and and even look at like the raw values I mean it has spent a decent amount of time up in these higher levels over here right you know between 70 and 80 this is a 30-day EMA so it's is trying to help get rid of some of the noise um and so we'll see I mean we'll see if this just ends up developing into a lower high and a lower low or if it ends up uh you know doing something else you can see over here we had a low or sorry a high a higher high and then a lower high and then it really went down a lot into a lower low and then it wasn't until we got to Q4 where the market picked back up and one of the things if you think about in terms of like summer lows right we talked about the idea of a summer low where the market just kind of down a lot and and again I I don't think it's possible for any of us to know what's going to happen in Q4 but I mean if you do believe in the idea of of sort of Just A Lull in the summer which it seems like we are in fact getting the next question becomes well will it pick up in Q4 like it did last year or will it be 2019 style move where even in Q4 it doesn't actually go up now if it doesn't go up in Q4 like it did last year and if the top you know if it's not a left translated if it's not a far left translated Peak before they're having even occurred that of course it would provide more evidence for a normal cycle it's just the rate cuts are being you know translated a year a year later this cycle compared to last cycle actually in in the last cycle they occurred in July the FED started cutting in July 2019 and you know next month is going to be July of of 2024 but I I think that's kind of what we're looking at right now in terms of the cycle and as well you know if you look at at at things like the ROI after the cycle Peak you say like Peak to Peak for bit coin you know we're currently already and let's just look at the last couple of Cycles or so last three we're already at day 959 right you can see that the last two cycles didn't really pick up again until about 100 days from now right so that would put you you know you have the end of July the end of August the end of September right so it wouldn't really get you that would get you basically until Q4 right so what I think right now my my again my best guess which again is probably wrong to be completely honest but my best guess right now is that Bitcoin continues to sort of just chop around for a while um it is through this chopping process that Bitcoin dominance goes up yes I said it but and I know I know it's down today or this week and I know everyone's having a field day with it but just remember it is still above the bullmark sport band and and that has held support for for quite a long period of time there have been a couple of fake outs below it and and what I find is anytime it goes below the 8we SME that's when people get you know more vocal about it right when it goes below that 8we moving average um you know sort of the the views on bitcoin dominance or you know other people's views about Bitcoin dominance having topped really they they got they get a lot more vocal but so far it just continues to hold that bullmark sport band so I kind of think it's playing out you know how we've discussed it's just it's it's a stochastic process right you can't rush it and there's going to be certainly pullbacks in in in a trend like this um but you know if you if you think about like things like Roi after cycle Peak you can see that the last two cycles at this point in the cycle you know in terms of Roi from the peak they were still we Bitcoin was still 40% down from the highs at this point in the cycle right 40% down from the high now again you know 40% down from the high right if we go take a look at at what that would even be um and then we're again we're measuring it not from the high from this year but the high from 2021 right 40% down from there puts you at around 41 42k which actually happens to be around the yearly open right if you look at the yearly open for Bitcoin it's right around that 41 to 42k level so look the the thing with Bitcoin at this phase is that we just had a big selloff below 60k again back when we were near the highs I said we were likely going to go back to the bull market support ban right because we were stalling out at the highs and if it does emulate any form of 2019 you get a high in March a lower high in April and then a lower high in May and then you fall below the 20we SMA potentially in June July August sometime you know going late second late Q2 early Q3 something like that and so you know at this point if it were to follow 2019 you you had sort of this High a lower high and then a lower high you still had another bounce where we went back above that 8we moving average at some point so again it's not impossible for that stuff to to happen again right I just think that in terms of where we are in the cycle if it is a normal cycle where the top occurs say Q4 of 2025 then you would expect a cool off period at the very least right now if you're in the left translated camp and you're thinking you know you're thinking a peak in Q4 right then maybe you're maybe you're on board with the idea of a summer lull but you think it picks up in Q4 and hey I'm not I'm not here to say it can't happen it certainly could um but if it doesn't happen if it doesn't happen in Q4 if we don't really pick back up in Q4 just remember we are still well ahead of where we were the last two cycles at this point in the cycle as measured from the peak and so when you look at things like the fear and greed index um and I I think it makes sense to kind of continue to go back to say like what happened last cycle with the fearing greed Index right before rate Cuts arrived uh rate Cuts arrived in in July and and you can see that you know just before rate Cuts arrived right so the First Rate cut was somewhere over here and you can see right before rate Cuts arrived Bitcoin the fearing index we went down to the 30s we then popped back up and then it and then it went all the way down into to the um into the teens so I'm just saying I'm not saying know what I'm saying right it's just it's one of those things where it's probably going to be a boring summer and um you know this this bias of lower highs hasn't been broken yet I I think it is possible for you know us to test the 8we SMA of course at some point and and even maybe to go back above it if 2019 were to to reoccur the only thing that I I I would say is that if this is 2019 or some version of it right if it is 2019 or some version of it then the next few months should see the Bitcoin dominance reach a top right now I know a lot of people are going to say Well it already topped and and maybe they're right and I I I will you know as much as I I feel convinced that it's going to go higher I always have to respect the idea that look I could be wrong about that it's possible it's already topped but when I think about you know how 2019 unfolded um it it did something very very similar and in fact if you're if you're looking at at all Bitcoin pairs today and you're thinking oh well you know they're back at 04 what's going on remember they're still below the 8we SMA which is at 041 and they're still below the bumar sport band which is at 043 furthermore on The Daily time frame for all Bitcoin pairs we actually saw a very similar move and I and I just talked about this yesterday in fact I in the video I was like look guys you know what we was what happened last year the the Bitcoin pairs they went all the way down to. 35 and then they rallied up to0 42 before coming back down you know um they rallied you know they rallied back up essentially to where the breakdown point was um and this is something we've seen happen many many times so so if you if you sort of go to where we are today you can see something very similar has happened right all Bitcoin pairs fell off a cliff they rally back up after falling off that Cliff very very similar to what you saw right here right to what you saw right over here and back then you'll see a very similar Wick back up to the upside by all Bitcoin pairs it drew a lot of people back in it made people think that the Bitcoin dominance had topped but in reality all Bitcoin pairs it was just a wick back up to to to retest the breakdown point right which why is you know could that be the same thing where it's just a wick back up to retest the breakdown point and then it just actually continues to go down and I I and that's the reason why I think that it's still going to go higher and as I also said previously if you look at something like Bitcoin divided by total minus eth again you know it was putting in new cycle highs as recently as as June June 18th right just a week ago it was putting in new cycle highs you can kind of see that right here right it was it was putting in new cycle highs and it just continues to sort of climb that wall of worry um and I I think it will likely continue to do so until the Bitcoin dominance hits approximately 60% so those are my views and I I think that the way we tie this in with the fear and greed index which of course is what this video is about is to say look this is a really really big drop if it's going to play out like last year you would expect it to to bottom here right and to only really start to go back up if it plays out like 2019 you might expect it to get a little bit of a bounce for a few days but then you would expect it to go to a lower low on the fing GD index in in maybe the next few weeks right could be sometime in July or August right and it and it would be it it would probably correspond with you know going and spending a little bit more time below the $60,000 range because I mean for the most part for the last several months anytime Bitcoin has gone sub 60k it hasn't really spent a ton of time there right if you look at at at sort of this range anytime it's gone around these levels hasn't really spent a ton of time there so if we start to spend more time down here then that would be the way that you see the fearing index um you know get a a a larger drop below 30 level so that's what I think it makes sense to watch over the next few weeks and months thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up and again check out into the cryptoverse premium at inth crypto.com I'll see you guys next time bye