Lecture on Savings and International Trade
Savings
Importance of Savings
- Critical for economic growth.
- Increased savings → increased capital supply → lower interest rates → higher Net Present Value (NPV) of investment → increased investment.
- Low savings rate in the US (~3-5%) compared to Europe and Japan (~15+%).
Public Policy and Savings
- Major tool: Tax subsidies for retirement savings.
Tax Subsidies for Retirement Accounts
- Logic: Interest on savings typically taxed, reducing net earnings.
- Retirement accounts (e.g., 401(k), IRAs) allow tax-deferred growth.
Benefits of Tax-Deferred Accounts
- Example: Tax-deferred account provides higher returns due to delayed taxation.
- Compounding of interest and delayed tax payments enhance returns.
- Encouraging use of retirement accounts increases national savings.
Investment Strategy for Retirement Savings
Investment Options in a 401(k) Plan
- Money Market Funds:
- Invest in government bonds; low risk, low return (1-3% interest).
- Bond Funds:
- Invest in corporate bonds; moderate risk, moderate return (4-5% interest).
- Stock Funds:
- Invest in corporate equity; high risk, high return (≈7% annual return).
Risk-Return Trade-Off
- Safer investments typically offer lower returns.
- Riskier investments offer higher potential returns but higher variability.
- Diversification is key: Spread investments to balance risk and return.
- Avoid investing heavily in employer’s stock due to risk of tying investment to job security (e.g., Enron example).
International Trade
Introduction to International Trade
- Current debate: Trade deficits and their importance.
- Example: Trade of roses from Colombia versus domestic production.
Key Concepts
- Exports: Goods sold to other countries.
- Imports: Goods bought from other countries.
- US: Exports $1.6T, imports $2.4T, resulting in $800B trade deficit.
- Trade deficit ≠ inherently bad; it is about achieving a balance where both parties benefit through trade.
Understanding Trade Deficits through Example
- Trade example using Pikachu and Jigglypuff illustrates trade deficits and surpluses.
Benefits of International Trade
- Allows specialization based on comparative advantage.
Production Possibility Frontier (PPF)
- Shows maximum output combinations with given inputs.
- Economies of scope: Doing some of both activities can be more efficient than specializing in just one.
Comparative Advantage
- Core concept in trade economics.
- Based on opportunity cost: Countries should specialize in what they are relatively better at producing.
- Example: US (computers) vs. Colombia (roses) demonstrates comparative advantage.
- Specialization and trade lead to more efficient production and higher overall output.
- Example: US produces computers, Colombia produces roses, resulting in higher total output when they trade.
Conclusion
- Savings play a crucial role in economic growth, incentivized by tax-deferred retirement accounts.
- Diversified investment strategies balance risk and return.
- International trade, driven by comparative advantage, enhances global efficiency and output by allowing countries to specialize based on their strengths.
Upcoming Topics
- Detailed welfare analysis of international trade.
- Further discussion on risk preferences and their impact on investment and trade decisions.