Lecture Notes: Strategies for Preventing Catastrophes

Introduction

• Personal story of breaking into own house on a cold winter night.
• Key takeaways from a stressful experience that led to insights on prevention.

The Incident

• Background:
  • Midnight in Montreal winter, temperature at -40 degrees.
  • Forgot house keys, saw them through the window.
  • All doors and windows were locked.
• Attempted solutions:
  • Thought about calling a locksmith but was concerned about waiting in the cold.
  • Broke a basement window to get in, planned to fix it later.
• Consequences:
  • In a hurry, forgot passport needed for an early flight to Europe.
  • Raced home to get it, ended up losing flight seat due to delays.

Insights on Stress and Decision Making

• Effects of Stress:
  • Under stress, cortisol affects heart rate and clouds thinking.
  • Realized personal cognitive fog when unable to find passport.
• Importance of systems to prevent mistakes during stressful times.

The Concept of Prospective Hindsight

• Introduced by Danny Kahneman, inspired by psychologist Gary Klein.
• Pre-mortem vs. Post-mortem:
  • Post-mortem: analyzing what went wrong after a disaster.
  • Pre-mortem: anticipating potential problems before they happen.
• Goal: Minimize damage or prevent disasters by planning ahead.

Practical Strategies

Around the Home

• Designate specific places for easily lost items:
  • Keys, passport, reading glasses should have fixed spots.
  • Use hooks, bowls, or drawers to keep items organized.

Travel Precautions

• Take photos of important documents (credit cards, ID, passport) and store them in the cloud for easy access if lost.

Making Informed Medical Decisions

• Discussed a medical scenario about high cholesterol and statin prescriptions:
  • Importance of understanding the Number Needed to Treat (NNT):
    • NNT represents how many need treatment before one person benefits.
    • Example: 300 need to take statins for one to benefit.
• Side effects to consider:
  • Statins have a 5% chance of side effects (muscle pain, gastrointestinal issues).
  • Evaluate risks vs. benefits before making decisions under stress.

Quality of Life Considerations

• Discuss life choices influenced by medical decisions:
  • Shorter pain-free life vs. longer life with potential pain.
• Importance of having these discussions with family in advance to prepare for difficult decisions.

Conclusion

• Acknowledging human flaws and potential for mistakes.
• Importance of planning and systems in place to minimize risks in high-stress situations.
• Personal reflection on taking steps to improve organization after the incident (e.g., installing a combination lock).
• Emphasized gradual process of becoming more organized.