Framing Low-Risk Trade Setups in Forex

Aug 8, 2024

ICT Mentorship: Module 2 of Month 2

Topic: Framing Low-Risk Trade Setups

Key Concepts

  • Higher Time Frame Charts: Essential for high odds probability trades.

    • Provides directional bias, institutional order flow, support, and resistance ideas.
    • Large institutions and banks analyze markets on daily, weekly, and monthly bases.
  • Institutional Order Flow: Understanding this on monthly, weekly, and daily time frames is crucial.

    • Higher time frame setups form slowly, allowing ample time to plan.
    • Suitable for those who can't day trade due to other life commitments.

Reducing Risk in Trades

  • Higher time frame has more influence on price.
  • Conditions on higher time frames can be refined to lower time frames.
    • This reduces the overall exposure in terms of pips for stops.
    • Allows for smaller stop loss placement, thus lower risk.

Example: Aussie Dollar Daily Chart

  • Higher Time Frame Level: 7512 relative to the daily chart, indicating a daily bullish order block.

    • Old low is broken, price goes down into this level.
    • Expectation of buying below old lows due to a higher time frame premise.
  • Hourly Chart Analysis:

    • Low violated down into key support (7512 level).
    • Buy stops above specified levels for upper level objectives.
    • Framed with a 20-pip stop for a long entry at 7542.

Refining the Setup: Lower Time Frames

  • 15-Minute Chart:

    • Focus on old low, price trades down into 7512 level.
    • Bullish order block identified, allowing buy at 7520 with a stop at 7507.
      • Results in a 17-pip stop loss.
  • 5-Minute Chart:

    • Zoomed into the 7512 level, identifying another bullish order block.
    • Entry at 7515 with a stop at 7507, resulting in less than a 10-pip stop loss.
    • Refined risk to 8 pips with first profit of 8 pips above, achieving a 3R reward ratio before hitting the hourly chart buy stops.

Summary

  • Refining risk on lower time frames allows for smaller stop losses and higher reward ratios.
  • Requires understanding of price action and why it should respond to certain levels.
  • Can achieve a 3:1 reward to risk ratio by refining entries from higher to lower time frames.