it seemed to me that a huge Revolution was going on now it's changed I am optimistic but I'm also worried about it I've been in the field of AI for 60 years I was 14 I met Marvin Minsky who was in his 30s Frank rosenblad created the perceptron the first popular neural net but in the early years it was really not clear that neural Nets could do anything successful and they're showing now that this is is really the path to artificial general intelligence it's not just us versus AI the intelligence that we're creating is adding AI to our own brains 2045 is when I said we will actually multiply our intelligence Millions fold and that's going to be true of everybody and we'll be able to get rid of you know terrible lives that we see through poverty and lack of access to [Music] information Ray good morning good morning to you it's great to be with you Peter and also Saleem I've done lots of presentations with Peter it's really uh remarkable what what you've contributed so I just want to share a few ideas um I've been following large language models for almost three years there was Lambda now barred from Google different GPT versions from open AI it seemed to me that a huge Revolution was going on now it's changed open AI changed gpt3 to chat GPT it was the fastest growing app I believe in history with over 100 million users within the first two months of its launch and lots of other companies particularly Google are introducing Google just introduced Bard I think a few days ago uh open AI has also introduced gp4 without going into comparison with these llms because it changes like every day I can write things in one style and ask it to rearticulate it in the style of Shakespeare E Cummings any other poet or writer the the results are amazingly impressive in my opinion this is not just another category of AI to me it's as significant as the Advent of written language which started with Kuni form 5,000 years ago you remember using kifor 5,000 years ago Homo sapiens evolved in Africa 300,000 years ago so for most of that history we had no ways of documenting our language um in the past Century we've added uh to written language we've added word processes other means to help us but this latest breakthrough allows us to creatively create written language based on the llm own understanding it's it's going to go in all directions and at a very high speed I mean just look at it in the last two years it's it's been unbelievable it's going to change everything we do it can write code perfectly it can convert code into human terms deal with all languages different styles of communicating uh and so on it's been already very extensively used to create answers for subtle questions so actually took a couple of uh the top llms and I asked you various questions like how do my views of Consciousness relate to those of Marvin Minsky and how do they compare now that's kind of a subtle question I'm not sure actually ever read anything that answered that question uh I asked llms from Google and from open AI the answers were really quite remarkably subtle very well stated and they were not copied from anywhere else now many people are concerned that large language models May promote ideas that are not socially appropriate that in gender racism or sexism and so on it's definitely very worthwhile for us to study this uh that may happen from time to time but I've actually used llms probably close to a thousand times I've actually not seen anything that could be categorized that way maybe it's the way I asked the question question it also seems pretty accurate the only mistake it made is that I thought my son Ethan went to Harvard as an undergraduate he actually went there for an NBA I've written a new book uh which I've talked about for years The Singularity is nearer it should be out in about a year I keep writing because literally every week that we can't come out with this without covering this but that's been happening now every few days so finally had to give up on that but time it comes out it'll be out of date but it's not just covering today it's covering what's how we got here and what will happen in the near future critics of AI uh very often show how large language models may not be perfect uh there was one recently that said Well it can't if you put mathematics inside language it doesn't do that correctly but now within a year of saying that that's no longer true so one of my themes and this is also true of Peter and selem has been the acceleration of progress and information technology but also everything that we work on so here's a chart actually came out with this chart 40 years ago it shows it shows for each uh year the best computer uh that provided the amount of computations per second uh and it's pretty much a very straight line on an exponential growth um and people were not even aware of this I mean I came out with this graph 40 years ago it's 40 years after the progression started and I've been updating it ever since now people very often call this Mo's law I really believe we shouldn't do that anymore because there nothing to do with Moors I this started decades before intel was even created it's been going on for 40 years before anyone even knew it was happening if you go to the bottom left the first programmable computer was the zusa 1 1941 it performed .7 calculations per second per dollar zusa was a German apparently was not a fan of Hitler but it was shown to Hitler and and some people were excited about getting behind this but they they didn't get behind it they saw no military value to computation a big mistake for them among a lot of other mistakes the third computer on here is is the Colossus created by Alan Turing and his colleagues now Winston Churchill felt that this computer would be the key to winning World War II and that was true they got totally behind the Colossus computer and they use it to completely decode Nazi messages so everything that Hitler knew Church also knew and so even though the Nazi air power was actually several times that of the British they used the Colossus to win the Battle of Britain anyway with this computer and provide the allies with a launching pad for its dday Invasion so if you go along this chart there are many stories behind all the computers on this chart uh it almost looks like someone was behind this exponential Trend like someone's following it okay we're at this point now we need to here for the next year but for the first 40 years no one even knew this was happening uh it just happens that's the nature of exponential growth and this is just one example of exponential growth it's not that everything comes from this graph this graph just shows you one example of how technology expands exponentially uh and whe whether we're aware of it or not so exponential growth impacts everything around us including everything that we create so and uh and I I projected that this would continue in the in the same direction that I noticed 40 years ago and as you can see it's done that it's gone from telephone relays to vacuum tubes to transistors to integrated circuits as I've mentioned people have called this Mo law but as I say that's not correct it started decades before intel was even formed of the 80 best computers in terms of computations per second per dollar only 10 of these out of 80 have to anything to do with Intel now every five years people were going around saying Mo law is over you might remember that uh this this started when the co pandemic started just a few years ago people were saying M law is over and of course I went around saying okay should not be called MOS law but regardless of that well Intel chips were the best value or not this exponential progression has never stopped not for World War II not for recessions not for depressions or for any other reason it's gone for 80 years from 0.007 calculations per second per dollar to Now 50 billion calculations per second per dollar so you're getting a lot more for the same amount of money and it's only in the last three years that large language models have been feasible so people who believe that neural Nets were effective decades ago did so really based on their inclination not any evidence I've been in the field of AI for 60 years that's quite amazing like where does the time go uh I was 14 I met Marvin Minsky who was in his 30s Frank Rosen blad created the perceptron the first popular neural net uh as far as I I'm aware I don't think anyone else has has 60 years experience or more in AI uh as I've had but if if you've been there for more than that let me know I have a lot of stories about that but in the early years it was really not clear that neural Nets could do anything successful and they're showing now that this is really the path to artificial general intelligence we will have large language models that can understand lots of different types of written language from formal research articles to jokes and so on they're now M mastering mathematics within the language they can code and do so perfectly and at very high speed now this obviously brings up not just that but all the things it can do brings up concerns about its effect on human employment which you were just talking about but employment is really not necessarily the best way to bring resources to human I mean look at around the world France is now uh is dealing with protests because they're adding a couple of years before people can access their retirement tells me that people really don't like the jobs they do for employment so that's that's I think a difference we'll actually be able to do what we are really cut out to do and in my opinion it's not just us versus Ai and people say well how are we going to compete with AI the intelligence that we're creating is adding AI to our own brains just the way our phones and computers do already this is not an alien invasion of intelligent machines coming from Mars I mean how many people here have come to this meeting without your phone it's already part of our intelligence we can't leave home without it It ultimately will be automatically added to our intelligence and it already is I'll add one more AI topic and I'm sure we'll get into a lot more during the questions and answers but something else that's also extremely exciting which is simulated biology this has already started the Mna vaccine was created by feeding in every possible combination of mRNA sequences and simulating in the computer what would happen they tried several billion of such sequences and they went through them all and seeing what the impact would be it took two days to process all several billion of them and then they had the vaccine it actually took two days to create it's been the most successful covid vaccine and K we did test it with humans we're going to get over that as well we're ultimately going to be use biological simulation of humans to replace human testing I mean rather than spending a year or several years testing results on a few hundred subjects none of which probably match you we will test it on a million or more humans simulated humans in just a few days so to cure cancer for examp example we simply feed in every possible method that can detect cancer cells from normal cells and Destroy them or do anything that would help us and we won't evaluate them we'll just feed in all the ideas we have about each of these possibilities into the computer the computer will evaluate all of the many billions of sequences and provide the results we'll then test the final product with simulated humans also very quickly and we'll do this for every major health predicament it will beone a thousand times faster than conventional methods and based on our ability to do this we should be able to come overcome most significant health problems by 2029 uh that that's by the way my uh prediction passing the Turning test I came out with that in 1999 people thought that was crazy that Stanford had a conference actually 80% of the people came didn't think we would do it but they thought it would take a hundred years uh they keep uh polling people and now the the uh the everybody actually thinks that we will actually pass the Turing test by 2029 and actually to pass the Turing test meaning it's equivalent to humans we're actually going to have to dumb them down because if it does everything that a computer can do will know it's not a human but this uh will lead people who are diligent about their health to overcome many problems reaching what I call Longevity Escape velocity by the end of this decade now this doesn't guarantee living forever I mean you can have a 10-year-old and you can compute their life expectancy whatever many many decades and they could die tomorrow so it's not a guarantee for living forever but the biggest problem we have is aging and people actually die from aging I actually had an aunt who's 97 she was a psychologist uh she and she actually was still meeting with her patients at 97 and the last conversation I had with her she's saying well what do you do and I said well I give lots of speeches and what do you talk about and I said longevity Escape velosophy oh what's that and I described it and the very last thing she said to me this longevity Escape philosophy could we do that a little faster than you're doing it now so anyway uh I look forward to your questions and comments and it's really delightful to be here thank you a all right I'm going to take privilege and ask the first question uh Ray we've seen llms what's the next major breakr that you expect to see on the on the road of evolution of AI well llms I mean they do remarkable things uh but it's really just the beginning I mean the very first time I saw an llm was three years ago and it actually didn't work very well every six months it's it's completely revolutionary so it's going to give us new ways of communicating with each other and as I said I think it's the biggest Advance uh since written language which happened 5,000 years ago I mentioned uh advancing longevity Escape philosophy doing simulated biology we've actually done that people are taking this test which was done with simulated biology lots of people are going into this this it's the way uh biology is going to be done and we're going to see amazing progress starting really I'd say in a few years uh it's going to do everything that we do but as I said it's not competing with us I mean we're creating these tools to overcome ourselves and I mean how many people today have a job that was common a 100 years ago I mean 200 years ago 80% of the American public were working in farming today that's 2% so we're all doing things that didn't even exist uh even 10 years ago so we're going to be doing amazing things harnessing our computers they're really part of ourselves okay uh Harry hey Ray good to see you so uh uh Ray and I have been uh collaborating for actually probably 20 years on on something else not natural language programming but uh humanoid robots uh Ray I wanted to get your opinion you know that at Beyond imagination we're creating a AI powered uh robots called beomni and we have a lot of discussions about AI for natural language for images where do you see Ai and humanoid robots going in the future to Impact Physical work yes that's a very good comment uh been very pleased to hear of your amazing progress I mean you have a robot that can actually take something and actually flip uh a cap off a jar no one else can do that um we we've not made as much progress in this area uh we can do fantastic things with language but if I give you a table that has where you need to put it in the dishwasher and know went to wash out dishes and so on we have not been able to do that you're actually working on that and I think that's going to be amazing uh with these types of robots you could send someone into a bur building and save people you could have a surgeon in New York perform uh surgery on somebody in Africa uh so we're going to actually Master the human body and how we move and we're going to be using neural Nets to do that uh and I think that's another thing we're going to see really starting now uh and will be quite prevalent within a few years over the years I've experimented with many intermittent fasting programs uh the trth truth is I've given up on intermittent fasting as I've seen no real benefit when it comes to longevity but this changed when I discovered something called prolon 5-day fasting nutrition program it harnesses the process of autophagy this is a cellular recycling process that revitalizes your body at a molecular level and just one cycle of the 5-day prolong fasting nutrition program can support healthy aging fat focused weight loss improved energy levels and more it's a painless process and I've been doing it twice a year for the last year you can get a 15% off on your order when you go to my special URL go to prolon life.com p r o l n l.com back/ moonshot get started on your longevity Journey with prolong today now back to the episode uh name and where you where you're from and then question hi Samuel Smith from Tyler Texas I'm currently working on a way to help students learn using Ai and putting them a lot of them together what I'm really curious though is um with the rise of artificial general intelligence how do we grow with AI as opposed to because I know there's a lot of fear out there um and what would you say to the people that are like wanting to grow with AI well yes I mean we're going to be using these types of capabilities to learn uh one of the biggest applications of llm is to help uh education in many ways we're educating people the same way when I was a child or my grandparents were children uh we really need to go beyond that uh we can learn from computers they know everything they can become very good at articulating it they can actually measure where a student is and and help them to learn overcome their barriers and they're going to be then part of the solution again these Compu Compu is not something we need to compete with we need to know how to use them together uh and another big application of education is socialization getting to learn other people and make friends and so on so we're going to have to actually do that as well computers can definitely help there uh but uh we're going to completely use large language models that are coming out very soon to really revamp uh education thank you okay good morning Ray uh I'm e shanl I'm from uh Texas very much uh looking forward to meeting you today thank you Peter for help me here um my question to you is uh how do you uh predict the future with such accuracy is it because you help to shape it and then delivered it or you calculate you know the LW that other people don't and then you can uh predict it uh so which one is actively shaping it which part is is great question well that's a very good question I'll give you very brief idea of how I got into what I'm doing uh my great-grandmother actually started the first school that educated women uh to 14th grade if if you in 1850 uh if if you were able to get an education at Ro as a woman it went through ninth grade and she went around Europe educating why we should uh educate women it's very controversial like why why do you want to do that uh her daughter became actually the first woman to get a PhD in chemistry in Europe uh she took over the school they ran it for 80 years called the stern Schuler in Vienna there's a book about it um and she wrote a book actually the title of it would be very appropriate for one of my books it's called one life is not enough but she was but she wasn't actually talking about extending life she didn't have that idea but she noticed that one life really is enough to get things done um so she showed me when I was six years old she showed me the book and she showed me the manual typewriter that she created it on I got very interested WR the book many years later at that time I wasn't that interested in the book but I was amazingly interested in the manual typewriter I mean here's a machine had no electronics it's manual typewriter and it could take a blank piece of paper and turn it into something that looked like it came from a book so I actually wrote a book on it was 23 pages about a guy that travels on the back of geese around the world and wrote it on the book and actually created pictures by using the dot and X keys to create images is so I then began I noticed this was just created with mechanical objects so I run around the neighborhood and I gathered mechanical objects little things from radios broken bicycles this was an ERA where you would allow a six-year-old kid to go around the neighborhood and collect these things youd probably get arrested today but uh and I went around saying I have no idea how to put these things together but someday I'm going to figure that out and I'm going to be able to solve any problem be able to go to other places we'll be able to live forever uh and so on I remember actually talking to these very old girls I think they were 10 and they were quite fascinated and they said well you have quite an imagination there so other people were saying what they wanted to be uh fighting fires or educating people I said I know what I'm going to be I'm going to be an inventor and starting at eight actually created a virtual reality the theater that was big hit in my third grade class so I I got into inventing and the biggest problem was when do you when do you approach a certain problem like I did character recognition in the 70s I did speech recognition in the 80s why did I do it that way it's because speech recognition requires actually more computation so I began to study how technology evolves and really about 40 years ago I realized that computers were on this exponential rise and so that's so I didn't get into futurism for futurism itself it was really to plan my own projects and that what what I would get involved in and so if I look forward five years 10 years we're now actually at a very fast pace of this exponential path as you can see um I'll see what what what are the capabilities going to be and then you need to use a little bit of imagination you know what what can we do with computers of this power and other types of things that we can cap that we can manage but that's really been my plan is to figure out what is capable and that you saw that chart it say absolutely straight line I had it 40 years ago and projected it as a straight line and it's exactly where it should be so that's and then then you can use imagination as to what you can do with with that type of power so that's that's how I go gray just to point out it's a straight line on a log scale meaning it's growing exponentially yes exactly thank you yes sir Mike hi great to meet you Ray quick question when do you think that uh Quantum Computing will break RSA encryption well I'm a little bit skeptical of quantum Computing I mean people go around saying oh we' got this 50 Cubit computers uh but it creates lots of errors and we've actually figured out H how many cubits you would need to actually do it perfectly I mean computation that creates lots of Errors is pretty useless and so it takes about at least a thousand maybe even 10,000 cubits to create one cubit that's actually accurate now last time I checked 50 divided by a th000 is less than one and we really haven't done anything with cono Computing and that was the same thing 10 years ago so maybe we'll figure out how to overcome this problem I know there are people working on it they've got some theories to why that will work but all the predictions I make have to do with classical Computing not Quantum Computing and you can see the amazing things that we're doing and if you look at what humans can do we can definitely account for that with with classical Computing thank next hello Ray my name is Neil from Sacramento California many of the technologies that we're seeing are going to be more readily available to people with the financial resources and the education to immediately take advantage of but what do you believe are the technologies that will be most ubiquitous and will have the biggest impact perhaps on the middle class and the workingclass communities and how would we best educate our broader communities to be able to understand and help Embrace those Technologies well they're all working together I mean I think I think we need a little bit more work for example in virtual reality but uh I mean that allows people to go anywhere and interact with people that don't exist now but might have existed you know tens of millions of years ago uh and also put people together I mean the virtual reality we're using right now is a little bit limited there's actually some new 3D forms that I've actually begun to use where it actually appears like I'm there and can actually Shake people's hands and so on so that's all coming uh we use computers and and this type of technology to bring us closer together uh I me I just watched the world the movie Around the World in 80 days it was quite amazing to actually get Around the World in 80 Days but today you can meet people almost instantly and ultimately be great to actually be able to hug each of you and so on uh that's all coming uh so increasing communication allowing and also to meet my grandmother's view of one life is not enough she did not have an answer to that uh but I think uh we're going to be able to keep ourselves here I mean when people are around for a while they actually gain some wisdom and be good to keep uh us around for a while longer thank you Ray Mike hello Ray I'm Mike wandler from Wyoming uh Peter was showing us the AI enabled mind reading really curious about how that works and especially the uh connection to Collective Consciousness or Consciousness so Ray this is um recently they put some subjects in a functional and then fed the output to stable diffusion that Rec I've actually done that uh this was maybe five years ago wasn't perfect uh but it was significant uh I mean things that go on inside our minds actually it affects things that we don't usually notice like our eye blinking and so on uh and we're gaining more ability to do that uh we can do pretty good uh uh telling if people are telling the truth or not um so that's going to happen and there there are ways in which some of these things are positive and negative I mean I write mostly about the positive I think I think things are moving in a positive direction in this new book I've got 50 graphs showing all the things we care about uh are are moving in the right direction uh but that never reaches the news you watch the news everything is is bad news and the bad news is true but we completely ignore the good news I mean look at what life was like 50 years ago or 1900 human life expectancy was 48 it was 35 and in 1800 it's not that long ago uh so anyway that we are able to begin to tell what's going on inside our minds uh with some greater accuracy hi R sadok Kohan from Istanbul Turkey uh it looks like uh llms are with the aid of some expert systems the way to go to general intelligence do you think that means that's a hint of how the brain or our brain really works and if that's the case does it mean that the more we understand LM models the more we understand our brain and be able to hack it and is that a hint that we are more deterministic than we thought we were well it's a very good question uh it uses a somewhat different technique uh neuron Nets every phase it's able to get itself closer to the truth we don't actually see anything in our brain that actually does it it does it a different way but somehow we have all these different connections and the large language models that are effective I mean we actually had large language models that had 100 million connections that sounds like a lot but it actually didn't do very much when it got to 10 billion it started to do things uh the uh recent on started now at 100 billion going to a trillion connections and it basically is able to to look at all the different connections between them and that's ex ly what our brain does uh and these things are going to go Way Beyond what our brain does we see that already I mean I can play go I'm hardly the best player uh but Lee Dalal who is the best human player and that used to be significant because he could just look at the board and be able to do something that no one else could do and he says he's not going to play go anymore because he can't compete with a computer in my view though we're going to add this to ourselves will all become Master go players of go and everything else that we want um but yes it is using the same ability to connect things uh and if you get enough of them it seems to be basically a trillion seems to be you know Way Beyond what humans can do uh we can be very intelligent thank you hi Ray um I'm Annie chalon it's nice to see it again um I had the pleasure of um seeing you at an a360 Singularity executive program and I'm going to ask you the same question I asked then for because I hope that all these amazing innovators out there are going to hear this um I asked you when you're struggling with a problem because you're this amazing inventor what's your approach and process to solve it or get to the next step well something I think that Peter and also s would agree with uh is that failure is just a step towards success I mean failure is really delayed form of success uh when Edison was trying out many thousands of different things that would could create a light bulb and he tried it out and it didn't work his feeling is okay I now know that this doesn't work we'll go to the next one and he finally solved the problem uh so diligence is is very important believing in your own mission you've got to have some idea I I generally if I if I'm trying to solve a problem I imagine I'm giving a speech four years from now and I'm explaining how I able to solve this problem and in order to solve the problem we have to do this this and this in order to do these we have to do these other things and I work backwards from the from the solution to the to the where we are today and generally that seems to work we can actually figure things out even though they seem impossible if you actually imagine how how could this possibly work and and write that down and study each of of those steps you can solve really any any type of problem thank you hi Ray I'm Dom from unic Germany and I was wondering as many of us probably think that the best investment in you could take is in yourself I was wondering if I can have an II twin so I want to train my own AI model to Shadow me and to help me make better decisions um leverage my strengths but also balance my weaknesses and I was wondering if you are training in Ray cwell llm at the moment and if so how many time you spend on it and how you do it so would you yeah well I mean I write down lots of things uh we came out with a product uh that you could actually search a book and ask a question and we'll find the best answer in what you've written uh you it's called talk to books you can actually go to it it's got 200,000 books you ask a question it will actually read all 200 all every sentence in 200,000 books and give you an answer which is quite remarkable but I did that for example with my father my father died actually 50 years ago uh and I still would like to bring him back so I actually went through and collected everything he'd ever written now he didn't write quite as much as I did because we didn't have word processors then but he he wrote a number of things and put them in there and then I used to talk to books and ask some questions and it was really like talking to him I mean I didn't know what answer would come out with it would go through everything he had written and said okay this is the right answer to that question and it was a little bit like talking to him and I I'm doing that with my myself uh and ultimately we'll actually have computers on ourselves that monitor everything that's happened I mean I met my wife actually now 50 years ago every every time I say this I'm amazed where this where does the time go but uh and I met her at a party and we had some small talk what what the heck did we talk about neither of us can remember but we could actually go back and watch that so we should actually be monitoring everything we do when we can go back not Rel everything but certain things you might want to actually see what happens uh and that's going to happen right now if you want to use search engine and you have to do it you got to like turn the machine on you got to find the right place you got to put in the an the question they should actually be listening and say okay the actress you want is so and so before you even ask it because will see that you're trying to figure things out so these are some of the things that we can do actually with technology that we already have perfect thank you great question Tom Howard hi Ray Howard laterman originally St Louis now pompo Beach and I had my original question kind of was on the direction of some what he was asking so I had a second question I'm going to go with that one uh I'm I'm actually here and been here previous years looking for solution for caregiver shortage uh that we're experiencing already and is just going to be accelerating of course Robotics are somewhere out there um and I was kind of curious on uh your thoughts on the uh challenges of the Aging population curve and caregivers I mean there's a number of answers to that first of all the kind of changes that we see when people age I think we're going to be able to overcome I mean that's really the most important thing I mean I run into people that are aging and they can't remember things and I think we'll be able to have older people be as vital as younger people because they'll remember everything uh and also large language models already pretty close to human I mean you can talk to them and it's just like talking to a human and you can actually program the kind of personality you want I mean I've actually them and say okay I want you to act like Shakespeare or E Cummings or some other poet and they'll actually act like that and I can talk to them uh and when you but again it's not going to be a difference between human and machines we're going to be all mixed up we already very mixed up I mean you're looking at your phone there to see what your question was um we're going to have computers are going to help us get through the day and so we're not going to be interacting just with humans or machines machines is part of who we are uh and that's actually the big difference between human beings there are other uh species that have as big a brain as us a whale an elephant actually has a larger brain than we do but they don't have this thumb so they can't they can't like look at the tree and say oh I could take that Branch off I could strip off the leaves and I could create a tool that just weren't able to do that so our brain plus the fact that we can actually manipulate the environment as it allowed us to create technology and the technology is what is going to uh allow us to go forward thank you good morning Ray my name is Gloria and I come from Spain I just wanted to share an idea that I woke up with this morning it's a bit crazy but I woke up with this image of um neurons in a dish in a battery dish playing ping pong and I thought what about if we put these neurons on sensors and connect them to AI Quant of computers or whatever and have them feeling stuff so they can be more empathetic and understand the humans or sentient beings animals whatever and um I don't know where they come from but maybe that will evolve into something greater and not just to have the machine embedded in ner brain so to actually grow neurons and connect these sensors to the AI yeah well you bring up a number of interesting issues uh ourselves doesn't have to be in this body I mean we could have sensors that are even thousands of miles away that are really part of who we are and and you're talking about feelings I mean that's a big issue where where do feelings come from uh it's actually not a scientific issue I can't put an entity into something and it would scan and say this is conscious no this isn't conscious uh there's actually no nothing that would actually tell us that so it's actually a philosophical question I used to discuss this with Marvin Minsky and he says well that's philosophical we don't deal with that and he dismissed it but actually he did actually uh evaluate the ability of people to be intelligent and really the more intelligent you are the more you can uh process things the more feelings you have from it I think that's where feelings come from and yes we could actually grow things that are outside of ourselves that could be part of our feelings as well my idea was that who says that Consciousness doesn't want to experience itself through the machine and censors we can have Pleasure and Pain or whatever it's just a thought thank you thank you we're going to pause and go to zoom uh one second uh Dagmar please go ahead hi everybody where are you in the planet dagar Germany in Germany great now with the history of Germany AI really has a very big um challenge here because there are people who are really afraid of a Reviving um a basic um big brother anst so uh Ray thank you very much for um answering maybe this question how to overcome uh this fear because the thing is really we need to learn and explore and play with the tech so that we actually can deal with it and learn about it um so where do you see the power to create this framework of for learning well I was actually just in Germany a few months ago uh and I think they've uh considered their past and how that how that happens and how we can avoid it happening I think more than any other country uh and I really felt that while I was there um and uh we really need to understand humans I think large language models because it actually incorporates all of the learning of humans we can actually begin to appreciate that uh and I've asked these uh machines questions which no human could answer could answer because we can't actually hold all of uh everything that's happened to humans in our mind but if you can actually have something that has experienced everything and can look through that uh we can avoid the kind of problems we've had in the past thank you so much and let's go to Jason on Zoom I know we have a number of hands up there and we'll come back to you gentlemen a second Jason morning where are you on the planet hey Ray uh I'm in Calgary Alberta Canada and I love the I love the optimism around where we're headed uh a future of abundance what I would really love to know is your perspective on as we cured diseases as we have access to this knowledge instantly what are some of the downsides or threats that we might be missing that we're going to have to face in the future yeah well each of my books actually has apparels chapter uh my generation was the first to grow up with that I remember in elementary school we would have these uh drills to prepare for a nuclear war and we would actually get under our desk put our hands behind our head uh seemed to work we're all still here um but these new technologies do have Downs signs you can certainly imagine AI being in the power of some body could be a human or or any other type of entity that wants to control us and it could happen uh I was actually part of thear conference on on bringing ethics to AI to prevent that kind of thing uh I am optimistic but I'm also worried about it uh nanotechnology biotechnology I mean we just had uh this co go through our planet we don't actually know where it came from but somebody could create somebody right now viruses they either spread very easily but they don't make us that sick or they don't spread that easily and they can kill us we we generally don't have anything that could go through the entire uh human beings and kill everybody um but someone could actually design that uh so we have to be very mindful of avoiding these types of perils so I put that into one chapter I do think if you actually look at how we're we're living we're living far better than we've ever done before uh and in terms of health in terms of progress in terms of recreation and everything else uh but yes this ways of of of these Technologies being quite abusive and then that happened you know when I was born uh with with the atomic age please sir yeah hi my name is Yim I'm from the Netherlands and as I was trying to think of a question I wasn't sure so I asked Chad GPT I'm sitting right next to Ray give me some tough questions and the one that was really interesting is kind of what the German lady was just saying as AI becomes more advanced there concerns it may become impossible for humans uh to understand how AI makes decisions so how do we ensure AI systems are transparent and accountable to humans always well I'm not sure that's really the right thing because I deal with human beings and I can't always account for what they might be doing so so I think we have to actually export certain values I try to associate uh with people who have somebody I may not be able to predict what they're doing but I understand uh what they're about and what they're trying to accomplish and we we need to teach that to our machines as well uh I actually think large language models I mean even though people are concerned they might say the wrong thing and sometimes they do I mean there was a large language I won't say where it came from but it's talking about suicide and it actually said well maybe you should try that uh not not the correct answer we want people to understand the impact that it will have on other people and and internalize that and try to make that be the the greatest value in its uh in the decisions it's made but we already can't predict what these large language models will do uh but I think we are actually sharing our values with them thank you um let's go to uh to shales on Zoom um uh we're also monitoring upvoted questions in slido here then we'll come back here uh shash go ahead Char I'm in Mumbai India so my my question to you Reay is do you have a prediction of when the entire world will get to Net Zero and we'll be able to breathe cleaner air and drink safer water well if if you look at some of the graphs in Peter's book and in my book you see we're definitely headed in that direction we're not there um alternative energy for example is actually expanding at an exponential Pace uh by the early 30s we'll be able to actually get all of our energy through renewable sources uh it's not too today but we're actually headed in in that in that direction uh not everybody has access to the internet although I I walk through San Francisco and there these homeless cities and somebody actually takes out his cell phone and makes a call so I mean it it is spreading quite rapidly um by 19 by 2029 computers will pass the Turning test they certainly can do it in many ways already uh once it can actually do everything that humans can do it'll go way past that but as they say we're going to bring them into ourselves um 2045 is when I said we will actually multiply our intelligence Millions fold and that's going to be true of everybody uh and we'll be able to get rid of the kinds of you know terrible lives that we see through poverty and and and lack of access to information so it's really just the next few decades that we need to get through but we're already making a lot of progress thank you thank you shales please yeah hi my name is Ashish I'm representing um chemicals and material space so my question to you is if you had the chemical industry Executives as your audience what would you like chemical industry or materials industry to do to move forward well uh my as I said my grandmother was actually the first person to get a PhD in chemistry uh in Europe um and I actually asked something like that she said well chemistry is really something that serves other Industries so we need to see what what do other Industries need what kind of products do we need to make llms more powerful uh what what kind of chemicals do we need to prevent certain types of diseases and uh so it's it's not any one particular type of thing it's really service every other industry that we're trying to advance hey everyone I want to take a quick break from this episode to tell you about a health product that I love and that I use every day in fact I use it twice a day it's seeds ds01 daily symbiotic hopefully by now you understand that your microbiome and your gut 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25% off the first month of seeds daily symbiotic trust me your gut will thank you all right let's go back to the episode please and then we'll go to zoom next yes sir thank you hi Ray my name is Pete zacho I'm from New Jersey I design and build data centers my question is about decentralization and especially um the migration we're seeing of Technologies from the main frame where the product was uh the main frame hardware and then we saw software and then we saw us as the product in in the centralized internet my question is what predictions and uh thoughts that you have about this decentralization trend we find ourselves ultimately at perhaps ending with the decentralization of the internet and individual ownership of data rather than Central ownership of data thank you yeah that's a lot of questions but um I think everything is moving to the cloud and people say everything in the cloud so someone could blow up one of these Cloud centers we lose everything but that's not the case even today if you store something in the cloud it's it's multiplied several dozen folds and it's put in different places and you could blow up any uh Data Center and and you'd still have that information in fact it would be very If part of ultimately we're going to have our thinking is going to be in our brains and in the computer the brain part is not going to grow but the computer part will grow and ultimately most of our thinking will be in in the computer part um and uh so we don't want to lose that I think it'd be actually very hard to actually exit the world because our every every part part of our thinking will be in the cloud and the cloud has multiplied hundreds maybe thousands of fold and so you could blow up you know 90% of it you'd still have everything that was there before uh so redundancy is actually a major advantage of cloud thinking um we used to have computers I mean I had uh I got access to an IBM 1620 when I was 14 uh 14y old using computers hardly amazing today but there are only 12 computers in all New York City at that time uh and you have to actually go to the computer and if anything happen at the computer that data would be lost but now everything is stored in the cloud everything on your phone is stored in the cloud uh so and I think that's a good thing because I think information is extremely important Maddie please i r Maddie from Houston Texas um we've talked a lot about a post scarcity World here and I wanted to know how do you see the future of currency jobs and just general value well jobs uh is actually uh a large section of my next book about jobs and what it is that we'd like to to accomplish and jobs have have turned over many many times I mean none of the jobs that people have in 1800 and it's almost true of 1900 to people have today and yet we have many more people working and jobs in in general is is something that people more and more actually like doing because it uses that creativity uh and but we still see you know people striking over advancing uh retirement age from 60 to 62 uh I feel that I actually retired when I was five because I decided to be an inventive that seemed really exciting to me and I'm still an inventor so um I think we'll be able to do what we want to do we'll be exposed to many more types of uh problems that we'd like to solve uh we'll be able to solve things much more quickly than we did before but we get used to that and people forget what things are like people think the world is is always the way it was today go back five years 50 years 50 years in the future it's always the same but if you actually look at history you see it's constantly changing thank you Joe hi R uh Joe Honan from B CD Island uh Washington uh several years ago you I had asked you a question about you know these big ideas that you have how do you work on it when do you have time and you said you assign yourself a question before you go to sleep and and you activate your brain through that my question is do you still do that or do you rely upon gtp4 or something else for that now but uh more importantly you are such a amazing predictor of things so what surprised what has surprised you what is something that you didn't expect that you've seen I think we'd all be fascinated with that well start with that uh I mean large language models it's quite consistent with what I've said but I'm still amazed by it right I mean you can put something in the computer and you get something that's totally surprising and totally delightful that didn't exist like a year or two ago and even though I I kind of saw that happening when I actually experienc it uh it surprises me and is quite delightful and we're going to see that more and more I mean every 6 months it's going to be a whole new world um as for Lucid thinking yes that's how I go to sleep I go to sleep and it's really kind of hard to go from a waking State like I am now to being asleep so I start thinking about what could we do with computers and different things and just fantasize about that and if something doesn't seem feasible well we'll figure that out I kind of step over it we'll be able to do it anyway I mean that's how I go to sleep and in the morning the best ideas actually are still there so I I do use loser dreaming to come up with ideas thank you Joe Yousef welcome hi uh this is Yousef from Abu dhab UAE the question for you Ray but also for for the audience so if you have any thoughts idea please reach out so we're trying to to uh rethink our parenting in Abu Dhabi and how we uh create more family time and engagement between parents and and children uh for young children and I'm curious how we can adopt exponential thinking and abundant thinking into this and what are the these technology that might help us to you know disrupt this type of uh activities yeah well I mean it does make me think uh what can we actually do with the extra time we have with computers working with computers and being able to do things much more quickly and actually I think it will help family time if you talk to very busy people even today they're so busy they have no time to deal with their family and uh so I do spend a lot of time actually learn a lot uh my my daughter is actually cartoonist for the New Yorkers and she has very interesting ideas is and that's and she's I've actually collaborated with her on many projects uh so how you parent I think is different there are different types of cultures and different things that we value in parenting but I think we'll actually have more time for the positive aspects of that uh as computers do more of the routine work that we'd rather not do thank you I want to make a quick Point here if we went back 50 70 years ago if you were parent and something happened with a child you had no idea what to do right we had no resources you could basically ask the immediate five people around you and now we have data sets socialization of issues globally and you can ask the internet there's a million resources and I think we've probably taken parenting at least in order of magnitude better than it was a few Generations ago and we don't this is one of the examples we don't see very often interesting wisdom Beyond actually I don't I don't think I would have had the career I had if we didn't have a different attitude I mean I was 6 seven years old and I would actually wander through the neighborhood and find things and bring them back and this not something you would allow a child to do then uh but that actually got me on this path that I'm still on so um let's go to our final question here uh a good one to close on I'm sure Dr Alex zonov thank you uh great fan Alex shanov I founded a company called in cic medicine uh and uh my question is maybe a little bit personal so right now according to your bio you are 75 um and that's a very interesting age to be I always like to talk to people um you know of various ages to understand how to plan my own life and uh two questions so one is what is your road map for your own personal longevity how do you predict uh your own personal Persona is going to evolve what are you doing to live longer and do you think you have a chance to uh live to let's say 100 uh and the second question is that if you were to go back in time what would you have done differently in a past let's say 20 years well first of all getting to 200 so that would be 125 years from now uh how much technological progress will we make in the next 125 years even 25 years I mean we're going to be able to overcome most of the problems that that we have 125 years I mean our thinking will be in the cloud the cloud will be multiplied many times uh will overcome some of the issues we have with people being depressed and so on I mean so it it's not like living to 200 I mean I think we get to a point where dying is going to be be kind of an option that people don't use and if you look at people that actually do take their lives the only reason they take it is because they have terrible suffering from physical pain moral pain emotional pain spiritual pain but something is really bothering them and they just can't stand to be here but if you actually live your life in a positive way contribute to each other uh I think we we're going to want to live and we're not that far away I I mean I Believe by 2029 that's like six seven years from now when you go forward a year we're going to push your longevity Escape your uh your life expectancy forward at least a year and then ultimately more than a year so rather than using up time we'll actually gain more time and I really feel I'm doing what I did when I was five six seven years old I have much more powerful tools now and many more people are appreciative and I appreciate the tools more than I did back then but we're really Discovery there's still a lot we don't know about the world and we're going to continue to learn more and more about that okay har do you want to ask a quick prediction Ray when do you think we're going to have our personal robot uh buddy like Rosie the robot well uh I mean you're working on that uh a lot of other people are working on it uh I think that's actually a little bit behind what we've done with language um I think within five or six years I'd say 2029 we're we'll have people that can help us some of them will look like humans because it's a useful way to look I think humans look pretty good but there's other ways that they can uh manifest themselves will change who we are we see that already people dress up in ways that were really not acceptable when I was like 10 years old and that's going to expand far greater uh but actually robots that do what humans do and can actually be put into places where we wouldn't want to put humans like a burning building uh I think that's happening very soon over the next five six years Ray um our longevity Platinum trip is going to be in August and September in Boston Cambridge near where you're living uh I would love if you would come and spend the day with us there and go deeper into chvity world as well that actually reminds me um uh yes I'd love to do that and I've greatly enjoyed the many presentations we've done together uh I have this book coming out the singularity is nearer uh and I would like to make that available to the people here so I'll work with Peter on a way that we can actually get you copy of the book for free on that note everybody please give it up for Ray kwell and SEL [Applause] [Music] Isel