Highlights from the 2023 Utility Scale Solar Report Webinar

Introduction

• Presenters: Mark Bollinger and Joachim Seale from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
• Purpose: Discuss highlights from the 2023 Utility Scale Solar Report
• Funding: U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office

Webinar Logistics

• Recording available post-event
• Questions via Zoom's Q&A

Purpose of the Report

• Objective: Analyze publicly available data to reveal trends in the U.S. utility-scale solar market.
• Definition: Utility-scale solar includes projects >5 MW AC capacity.
• Related Reports:
  • Tracking the Sun: Covers smaller projects
  • Location: trackingthesun.lbl.gov
  • Other Products: PowerPoint-style report, Excel data file, executive summary, online data visualizations
• Report Access: utilitiescalesolar.lbl.gov

Report Chapter Highlights

• Excluded: Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) due to market inactivity, data, and methods.

Deployment and Technology Trends

• Deployment in 2022: 20 GW DC installed, slight decrease from prior year.
• Projected Growth: Expected return to strong growth with annual deployment reaching 40 GW over the next two years.
• 2022 Capacity Additions:
  • Sample of 147 projects: 13.2 GW DC (10.4 GW AC).
  • Texas and California lead in capacity additions.
  • Regional Deployment:
    • Texas: 5% of electricity from solar
    • California: 27% of electricity from solar
    • National solar penetration: 4.7%

Solar Installation Trends

• Tracking Systems: 90% of new modules in 2022 on single-axis trackers
• Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR): DC capacity generally 40% greater than AC capacity
• Project Cost Trends:
  • Cost Decline: From $1.50 in 2021 to $1.30 per watt AC in 2022
  • Economies of Scale: Larger projects significantly cheaper

Performance Metrics

• Capacity Factor: Median capacity factor is 24% AC.
• Regional Differences: Highest in California and the West, lowest in Northeast.
• Trends by Plant Vintage: Capacity factor trends stabilized since 2013.

Economic Analysis

• LCOE and PPA Prices:
  • LCOE has decreased by 84% since 2010
  • PPA prices have followed LCOE trends
• Tax Incentives: ITC vs. PTC trade-offs

Market Value Analysis

• Energy and Capacity Value: Evaluation in organized wholesale markets
• Solar Curtailment: Increased in CAISO and ERCOT
• Regional Variations in Market Value: Higher in Southeast

Hybrid Solar and Storage

• Hybrid Deployment: Record solar hybrid deployment in 2022
• Cost and Capacity Trends: Costs vary with battery capacity and duration

Interconnection Queues

• 2022 Queue Data: 947 GW of solar with significant hybridization
• Regional Focus: Non-ISO West, MISO, PJM leading in queue capacity

Conclusion and Q&A

• Future Outlook: Continues growth expected in solar deployment
• Acknowledgments: Thanks to DOE's Solar Energy Technologies Office

Additional Resources

• For more detailed data and analysis, visit the project website and explore the interactive visualizations.