Transcript for:
Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect

Imagine, the year is 1905. One day, the clock on the tower in Berne, Switzerland,  is a little late. Two minutes late, to be more precise. For that reason, a man who lives near the tower does not  wake up at the same time that he usually wakes up to  go to work. Realising the mistake, he becomes a little nervous. It takes him a little longer to  get dressed, drink some coffee and leave the house. He leaves five minutes later than usual. He is about to  cross the street. Meanwhile, a banker gets into his new car without  knowing that it has a problem with the brakes. Our man crosses the street and doesn't see the car. The man is run over and dies. This man is no less than Albert Einstein. That year Einstein should have published four works  that would become the basis of modern physics. Innovations like GPS, TV screens, the semiconductors  that allowed us to create laptops, never happen. The computer, the laptop, the mobile you are watching this  video on never come into existence. And this video... doesn't exist either. This sequence of events is an example of what is known as  the butterfly effect, a  manifestation of Chaos Theory. For many centuries, the world was explained through the  laws of Isaac Newton and classical physics. According to these laws, if  the current state of an object is known, its future behaviour  can be predicted with relative ease. Chaos Theory questions this deterministic vision: not  everything is predictable anymore, nor does it work  like clockwork. Since the 1800s,  mathematicians have raised the idea that not all  phenomena could be predicted by Newtonian laws. But a meteorologist named Edward Lorenz made chaos  theory a visible phenomenon. It all started in 1961 when he was working on a mathematical model to forecast the weather. Lorenz entered data such as temperature, humidity,  pressure, and wind direction into his computer. His computer would draw a graph modelling what the  weather would be like,  not always accurate, but very close to reality. One morning, Lorenz decided to verify some results. He stopped the computer, to save time, entered the  numbers himself, and went to grab a coffee. When he returned, the chart was incredibly different from  the original. At the beginning it started  out pretty similar, but in the middle it presented a  completely different trajectory. Surprised, he checked the numbers. He found that the number he had entered was three tenths  less than the number used by the computer. That difference, which  altered the trajectory so much, is equivalent to a  particle of dust on the Eiffel Tower, or one less feather  in the weight of a duck. Lorenz deduced that this experiment was not a special case, that there were other systems in which tiny  differences produced, over time, monumental changes,  making everything seem unpredictable... that the flapping of a butterfly in  Brazil could, in theory, cause  enough of a disturbance to spark a tornado in Texas. Even though we have a good idea of how the universe  works, there are no  measurements that allow us to determine the exact  position and speed of every atom in the universe. And this "inaccuracy" in our  calculations makes predictions difficult,  one of the reasons why long-term prediction is impossible. But chaos is not the same as disorder. Although chaos makes predictions difficult, the  universe is not random and  effects still follow causes. And no matter how chaotic it may seem, a system always  follows a trajectory towards a certain point. For example, in the calculations Lorenz used for  his model, the trajectory  created a pattern that resembled the wings of a  butterfly. Understanding these patterns  of chaos has practical applications. In the stock market it reminds us that a slight  fluctuation can cause a crisis  in the market -  and that is why we cannot speak of  predictions but of probabilities. In the human body, it allows us to understand the chaotic behaviour of a heart with cardiac arrhythmia. Even in human behaviour, the butterfly effect can be used to analyse social phenomena. For example, how trolling on social networks can be triggered by a single negative comment. Our universe continues to obey the laws of cause and effect. The sun will continue to rise every morning. The planes we build will keep flying. Ultimately, chaos theory introduces an element of uncertainty into our reading of the Universe. It reveals the limit of our knowledge.