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TGIF Trading Strategy Overview

Aug 14, 2025

Summary

  • The meeting provided an in-depth review and practical breakdown of the TGIF (Thank God It's Friday) trading model, which is an algorithmic day-based trading strategy used on Fridays.
  • Key principles around weekly range analysis, Power of Three (accumulation, manipulation, distribution), and practical identification of the TGIF setup using higher and lower timeframes were covered in detail.
  • The strategy focuses on anticipating a price retracement of 20-30% of the weekly range on Fridays, particularly after markets reach a higher timeframe premium array.
  • Several models, entry techniques, and interpretation guidelines were discussed, emphasizing the need for repetition and top-down analysis.

Action Items

  • (none specified in the transcript)

TGIF Trading Model Overview

  • TGIF is a Friday-specific, algorithmic trading strategy applicable to any asset, targeting price retracement into the weekly range, generally after a sustained bullish move.
  • Emphasizes a "top-down" analysis—start from higher timeframes (e.g., monthly/weekly) to identify premium (overbought) or discount (oversold) arrays before drilling into intraday charts.
  • Central premise: After a market has trended upward all week and approached a higher timeframe premium target, look for a retracement (not necessarily a reversal) of 20-30% into the weekly range on Friday.
  • The retracement is typically expected during the afternoon session (especially after a bullish morning and a high set before or around 1:30-2:00 PM NY time).
  • Measurement of the retracement is made from the high and low of the week, using Fibonacci or percentage calculations to locate the 20% and 30% levels as likely draw points for price.

Weekly Range and Power of Three Concept

  • The "Power of Three" (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution) is used to frame market behavior across timeframes, translating to:
    • Accumulation below/near the weekly open
    • Manipulation as price moves contrary to the main weekly direction to trick participants
    • Distribution as price reaches the weekly high (or low) and retraces
  • Applies universally across timeframes; understanding where the next draw on liquidity is located is essential.

Practical Application Steps

  • Identify a significant premium array (e.g., monthly fair value gap) as price target from higher timeframes.
  • Monitor the market through the week for consistent bullish closes near the weekly high.
  • Expect, on Friday, after a high is established (generally by early afternoon), a retracement into the 20-30% zone of the week's range, measured from the weekly high and low.
  • Multiple entry models are possible:
    • Direct "turtle soup" reversal at the high
    • Wait for breakdown/structure shift and confirmation using order blocks, fair value gaps, or breaker patterns
    • Utilize the "ICT Silver Bullet" session between 2-3 PM for intraday entry alignment
  • Advised to adapt to personal model preference; no single entry method is superior as long as it fits the overall model.

Example: NASDAQ Futures, June 2023

  • The NASDAQ weekly chart entered a higher timeframe premium fair value gap.
  • Friday session created a Judas swing at the open, setting the high in the morning, then retraced down through 20-30% of the weekly range per the TGIF logic.
  • Multiple confirmation points and entry models were highlighted intraday (hourly, 15-min, 5-min, 1-min), all aligning with the primary TGIF principle.
  • Emphasis was placed on patience (waiting for high formation and time of day), flexibility in entry tactics, and strict adherence to model definitions.

Decisions

  • TGIF retracement model confirmed as a valid, repeatable Friday trading strategy — based on historical and real-time evidence, the model provides consistent setups when criteria are met, especially after a strong weekly directional move and premium array target.

Open Questions / Follow-Ups

  • None explicitly stated, but more advanced topics (e.g., time distortion, reversal extensions beyond 30%, use of gradient exits) are referenced for future sessions or covered in additional educational materials.
  • Attendees seeking detailed instruction on advanced concepts (like time distortion) are advised to wait for pending book releases or further lessons.