Nuclear War Simulation Lecture Notes

Overview

• Simulation designed to test decision-making during a nuclear crisis.
• Presenter: Matthew Parent, Impact and Outreach Coordinator at the Harvard Kennedy School.
• Aimed at understanding if an average citizen can handle presidential responsibilities in extreme situations.

The Scenario

• Incoming nuclear missiles with potential impact in 10 minutes from the fictional country Valoria, targeting the U.S.
• 40 to 60 million American deaths anticipated based on the targets.
• The situation mimics real-life decision-making scenarios faced by presidents during crises.

Key Responsibilities and Challenges

• The president must:
  • Analyze limited information quickly.
  • Decide on a course of action with potentially catastrophic consequences.
  • Balance between military response and civilian safety.
• Pressure from advisors and the urgency to respond complicates decision-making.

Response Options

1. Small-scale Nuclear Response

   • Target Valoria's population centers.
   • Casualties estimated at 20-50 million civilians in the U.S.

2. Large-scale Nuclear Response

   • Aim to destroy military assets, resulting in 100-150 million casualties.
   • Significant geopolitical ramifications.

3. Conventional Weapons Response

   • Involves ground troops; does not kill millions immediately.
   • Leaves Valoria's military intact for potential retaliation.

4. No Response

   • Allows for potential negotiation, but risks further military action against the U.S.
   • Millions may still die due to inaction.

Historical Context

• Mention of the Cuban Missile Crisis as a precedent for nuclear decision-making.
• Importance of communication and verification of threats.

Decision-Making Dynamics

• The importance of diverse perspectives in the room.
• The overwhelming nature of simultaneous opinions and the necessity for quick resolution.
• Potential for catastrophic mistakes due to rushed decisions.

Conclusion of Simulation

• The simulation concluded with a decision for a large-scale nuclear response.
• Reflects on the emotional and moral weight of such decisions.
• Discussion emphasizes that there are no "winning" options in nuclear conflict scenarios.

Final Thoughts

• The existence of nuclear weapons poses an existential threat to humanity.
• The role of the president carries immense responsibility and consequences.
• The complexity and dire nature of decision-making in nuclear warfare are highlighted as crucial learning points.