Transcript for:
Trading Psychology and Risk Management

Hello everybody welcome back to another video today we are talking about trading psychology and before we begin I want to remind you that this video is not to be construed as Financial advis this is for educational purposes only and you should be Consulting your own financial advisor before investing or trading with real money so in this video I want to talk about trading psychology a little bit of risk management and context which is the narrative what is the price doing and why your trade set set ups fail all the time and before we go further into the video I want to drive home this one important point is that the life is fractal the price is fractal everything in life is fractal and um Nature has patterns and all that and so have you do anything is how you do everything so if you are randomly going through life that's how your trading is going to look like if you're doing random activities you're going to execute random trades if you don't have consist consistency structure and systems put in into your life you going through the chaos without knowing how to control it because life is chaotic and all we can do as humans is try to control that chaos and within that control we can find the consistency and make progress towards our goals this is very important and even in the Bible you can find this verse is to those that have everything more will be given and from those that have nothing everything will be taken this is very very true because as soon as you start making progress towards a single goal and and doing the same thing over and over that brings you closer to that goal you will experience more and more abundance you will experience more things towards that goal you will experience more and more and more as long as you put effort in because if you're not going to put effort in everything will be taken from you if you just think that randomly one day you're going to wake up and and suddenly you're going to be a great Trader and and all this mindset thing is going to click in it it's not going to happen everything will be taken from you if you relax if you stop moving forward everything in this life and universe is is governed by cause and effect if you're not putting effort in there's not going to be effect you need to take an action and expect a reaction there is no reaction without an action so if you expecting a certain reaction you need to put a certain action and you got to keep doing that the same action because if you stop doing that same action it's no good living healthfully for one day and then sabotaging it in the next this is what we do in trading every single time we blow up this is what what happens we consistently making progress maybe we're getting a nice win streak and what happens we take a loss we take another loss and then next thing you know we blow up the account the the same day this is what sabotaging success looks like this is when we don't follow our rules and we don't do the same thing that brought us consistency we don't do the same thing maybe we get greedy and on this setup on this day we going to swing for the fences and next thing you know you blow up it's very important to do things the same way every single day because through repetition that's when wisdom will come because you've been repeating over and over the same thing you will start noticing nuances within that same thing and maybe improving your system it's very important to keep moving towards the same goal with the same process and keep refining that process over and over again and the other thing that people don't really realize is that the results that you see today are coming from the efforts that you put in years ago you know I started trading in 2020 and uh I don't know what I've been doing before that but I really haven't heard about trading investing or anything until 2020 and as soon as I heard it as soon as I learned about about it I knew I want to be a Trader I love it I'm introverted it's the perfect job for the introvert I don't want to manage people but now since I have a goal I need to put a consistent effort into learning that craft into practicing that craft into finding my trading Edge and I can't expect to see results in the next few months in the in the next few days in the next few weeks we can't expect result so fast because that feeds into the getrich quick mentality and next thing you know you overleveraging and you're blowing up because you greedy so it's very very important to not get ahead of yourself because always remember the results that you see today are coming from the efforts that you put in years ago my my first two and a half years in trading I spent unprofitable but the important part is that once you decide what is your goal you need to put consistent effort in pursuing that goal so everything is about Focus focusing your energy towards one thing as you can see here on this diagram it's all about energy and where you going to focus that energy in so as you can see here we have nice straight line towards the goal it's this is the person who every day puts in effort towards that goal and eventually they get really good and the goal is Mastery and eventually they Master the craft and they good at it but if you spread your energy around like shown in here and it's it's flowing all over the place well maybe here you start making progress and it's going your way but then you want to play some video games and then uh well you decide to maybe dive into dividend investing and and maybe maybe here and you started to exploring different trading strategy and then maybe here you you started to believe that uh you know swing trading is better than sculping and maybe here the sculping is better than swing trading and and then next thing you know you spread your energy in all of these different ways and the goal is over here you haven't made any progress towards your goal but if you focus the energy on one thing consistently you're going to be able to move towards your goal in the fastest way possible cuz Adventure eventually here you can might be you know getting slowly to to towards your goal where you practice one setup you're trying to just uh trade and and practice one thing over and over and and you might be making progress towards your goal but since you also like like to play video games and maybe hang out with friends and and then get drunk your energy going away from this one goal and eventually you distracting yourself from whatever you learned here in this progress you distracting yourself with all these other activities like video games and all that crap I used to play a lot of video games but now I play video game of trading so if my goal is to become really good Trader my goal is Mastery of trading I should focus all of my energy into that one thing and make my whole life about that one thing this is what passion is this is what what passionate people do they they do the same thing over and over again because they love it I love trading and that's why I decided to pour all of my energy into the one thing which is trading so to summarize this if you want to become good at something put all of your time and energy into that one thing very simple one trading setup over and over and over again until it becomes an instinct until you can just open the chart and you see it right away okay yep that's my setup yep price is not there yet but I'm going to wait until it gets there and if it sets up in my way I'm going to take a trade but you're not going to get to that level if you keep destructing yourself with other things and the reality is we don't know what we don't know if we learning something right now there are other things that deeper with anything in life the rabbit hole goes deep and we don't know what we don't know until we realize it until we practice it until we experienced it so you might think that this trading is is about trend lines but then you realize that it's it's about smart money and then you realize it's about institutions and then you realize about this and then and rabbit hole goes so deep and what you going to do about it you don't know about it you don't know until you know and we don't know what we don't know so do not assume stuff about things that you don't know and submit to the process if you haven't tried this one setup over and over again you can't speak on it you can't speak on executing that setup you can't tell anybody what to do because you haven't done it yourself so it all goes back to the time and effort into one thing and because you're repeating that one thing you become wiser and WI wiser about that thing you start learning all the intricacies all the nuances about that one thing about that one trading setup about trading in general about what it takes to become a consistently profitable Trader so as Mark Douglas said there are three levels of trading Mastery first one is mechanical which is you practice a mechanical strategy where there is a one trading setup that that you know and you have mechanical rules then number two is subjective which is now you understand maybe the overall context and maybe overall Narrative of the price and where price is going and and what the structure looking right now is a good time to short is it maybe uh is a good structure to short it maybe the good range to short or maybe the good range to buy that's where subjectivity comes in and now your mechanical works even better because you picking and choosing only the best setups and then number three it's intuitive where you just look at the chart and you can execute you know intuitively if this setup's going to work out or not now the the level three is Mastery all we need to start is mechanical and because we can repeat mechanical over and over and over again we start to understand subjective we start to understand the narrative why price going there why this setup failed we learn and we move to subjective and eventually we graduate into the intuitive but intuitive takes years and years and years of practicing the same thing over and over again and the other important thing is that we can't rush into trading without practicing the same trade setup over and over again the same thing over and over again and I'm stressing this over and over again because it's very important it's like trying to go to the gym for the first time ever and expecting to Squad 500 L right away you're going to break your back just like you're going to blow up your trading account again how you do anything is how you do everything so if you're going to the gym and and try to you know lift 500s you get what you deserve cause and effect we need to start small just like we need to start with maybe 20 pounds we need to start with five points on in Q what are you trying to catch 100 points when you can't catch Five Points consistently you might get lucky and if you can catch maybe 100 points here and there but you can't expect to come in every day and capture those 100 points it's not realistic those moves don't happen every day you know you need to be realistic if you can't capture Five Points consistently what are you doing with 100 Point trades this is where discipline comes in discipline to take just this one setup to take only one trade per day discipline to stop trading after a loss whatever rules you set for yourself you must follow 100% if rules are not followed you will have cognitive dissonance and you will wire your brain for failure what is cognitive dissonance cognitive dissonance is a mental conflict that occurs when your beliefs don't line up with your actions it's an uncomfortable State of Mind when someone has contradictory values attitudes or perspectives about the same thing so if you keep telling yourself okay I'm going to only take one trade a day I'm only going to aim for Five Points I'm only going to execute this one setup and when you sit down and trying to trade what happens you jump jumping in here you jumping gone you're chasing you're doing this you're getting greedy you're not following your rules you're not doing what you said you're going to do and what happens your brain eventually will stop taking you seriously and will never believe what you say you're going to do this is how people lie to themselves all the time they say they're going to do something and they don't do it and they can go like this throughout their whole life like this they can lie to them El and say yeah I'm doing this but in reality they not and it's very very dark place to come out of you have to take ownership of your life and you have to slowly get back to that point where you you say and you do it you say one thing and you do that thing and you do that consistently and eventually your brain will start believing you again but if you are here in this place where you say I'm not going to overtrade or whatever you say I'm I'm going to stop after one loss and you don't that's bad you will never make progress that way I promise you you will never make progress and it all comes back to this how you do anything is how you do everything so don't lie to yourself so if you're struggling to follow your rules in trading is because you don't have rules in your own life yep very true just like in trading you must have structure in your life you know life is chaotic and only only with structure we can make sense of it structure allows us to control our environment kind of allow us to control the chaotic life there is and without structure it's all chaos it's all Randomness we will never understand anything in life without structure without structural Learning Without structural efforts everything has to have structure because without structure it's a chaos it's a Randomness and you can't navigate chaos without structure structure is everything and I don't care what anybody else says but structure in trading is everything just knowing Market structure will make you profitable Trader if you can follow the rules of Market structure meaning you you buy low you sell High you buy at the right areas and you sell at the right areas everything comes back to structure so just like in trading you must have structure in your life because if you don't then you're trading is going to reflect that there is a a good saying there is no such a thing as business problems there are personal problems that reflect in your business so the same with trading if you don't have structure if you don't have a routine you don't have habits you're going to lose in trading all right so let's talk about risk to reward and I'm not going to be talking about percentages uh RR which RR is better it doesn't really matter as long as you're profitable and whatever suits your personality that's what you should be doing but uh I want to emphasize on small gains consistently so start small and then add to it later can you consistently extract Five Points from NQ every single day if you can now you have to keep doing that and slowly adding more and more size this is uh very important because a lot of people uh come into the market and they want to get rich quick they want to get a 100 Point Banger right away and somebody give them a signal so they can just make money and that's a really wrong mentality because because you setting yourself up for unrealistic expectations and five points on in Q might not seem enough but Five Points on one in Q is 100 bucks okay so you have five inqs it's five 500 bucks so it's really adds up all you really need to quit your 9 to5 is couple of trades on inq and you done for that day and to put it in perspective 10 points on in Q is 200 bucks so so you could be taking one trade with five nqs and banging 1,000 bucks in one trade these trades could last literally like a few minutes and you could be done for the day but the important part is that you need to know what you're doing so a lot of people shy away from the low time frame trading and they don't understand that uh they just don't know what they're doing they afraid that you know some random Wick is going to take them out uh before the move unfolds yeah it might happen but if you practice doing the same thing over and over and if you have a working system and you can trust that system and your execution is good you can take one trade and walk away and just bang 1,000 bucks with five inq and and you done you done for the day but you start out slow can you do it with one inq and Five Points that's 100 bucks you know and I get it that your system might give you more points but the more you hold the greedier you get and you haven't learned how to extract Five Points out of the market uh uh what are you doing trying to extract 10 20 30 40 points out of the market let's learn how to consistently extract five points every single day and then add onto that and yeah it's going to be boring it's going to be you know monotonous but eventually you can graduate to the 10 points and more inqs that consistency will give you massive confidence so you will be able to add more and more size onto your trades you can can't just come in into the market and expect 100 Point Banger every single day they don't happen every single day sometimes it goes up sometimes it goes down and guess what there is no guarantee that you're going to catch that trade but what's going to happen you're going to come into the market and you you're going to be expecting you're going to be setting unrealistic expectations that well today I'm going to try to catch 100 point just like I did yesterday it might not happen and you might end up getting chopped up trying to get the best entry to take it to the moon and the market just been chopping around all day so it's very important to set realistic expectations for yourself as a Trader and really all you have to do is follow simple plan that's what most Traders don't do 99% of people don't follow the plan they know what they need to do but they never do it so the same with weight loss you know you shouldn't be eating McDonald's every day but but still people do it so set a simple plan one trade per day fivepoint Target can you do this consistently every day can you do this for a month take one trade and stop fivepoint Target and stop get used to doing this get used to pulling out Five Points profits out of the market I don't care if it goes 100 points plus into your target Zone whatever you determined your goal is to extract only five points can you do that I know it might seem not big of a Target but can you do that consistently every single day because this right here is enough for you to quit your job this is Enough Five Points is enough 10 points is enough and if you can do it consistently then you add on more size you add two contracts three contracts four contracts five contracts whatever your risk tolerance is but your risk tolerance is going to increase with confidence with practice with back testing forward testing with seeing your setup play out every single day you know it's a simple plan but can you stick to it will you be able to follow your own rules you have no other choice but follow your rules if you want to be successful like I said 99% of Traders fail not because market makers hunting their stop- losses is because 99% of Traders cannot stick to their own rules I can give you rules but they might not work for you it's very important that you decide those rules for yourself and eventually you can keep refining those rules as you keep learning as you keep progressing and getting more and more experience as a Trader you can keep refining your rules you know you might have a system but now you have a rule to not get in on top of the range to not not buy on top of the range to not sell on the bottom of the range you can discover these rules that in back testing you know this that you repeatedly get into this entry and you get stopped out so you can set rules around that so you get less stopped out and by the process of elimination you're refining your trading and you refining your process it's very important to follow your rules because if you fail to follow your rules you will have small winning days and a big blowout wiping away all of the consistency and progress sounds familiar H anybody I've been there that's what 99% of people do it's called greed you got the dopamine hit after taking 69 points out of the enq and you come in again and and you expecting the same thing happen and it doesn't happen and you take one loss you take two loss and next thing you know you blow up you spiral out of control TR you get pissed off why it's not working you don't understand why it's not working gets frustrated and you start chasing you start trying to get back everything in one trade that's because you don't have rules and that's because you are not used to following your rules you are not used to sit on your hands and wait for that one thing to show up on the chart that's the problem because like I said in previous videos all the strategies work everything works there's no doubt in my mind that ICT works that DT FX works that so supply and demand works all of the the vof the Elliot waves trend lines all of it works okay and it's really all of it is the same thing because we're talking about the same price action the same candles but what's not working is you you not working okay and I'm also speaking to myself I used to be like this I used to expect that you know trading is like a video game but not you need to have rules and you need to follow those rules because if you don't it's going to be all randomized results it's all going to be random and you might have a good winning streak and next thing you know you blow up in in a single day you might be building consistency every day for 2 weeks 3 weeks and then something happens and you just can't control yourself you spiral out of control and you blow up you know a lot of people equate to trading as gambling and it's partially true because we don't really have a control over our outcomes right we're trying to place high probability bets but it's really there is no guarantee that that this bet will play out it takes one Trader somewhere in the world to turn your winning trade into a loser because I don't care what anybody else says Market moves with algorithm but if there is no participants there is no algorithm there there there need to be buyers and sellers and the only way to know where the market moves is to know what the biggest players are thinking the ones that have a lot of money to move this Market I'm talking about central banks and all all all that Bunch the only way to know where the market is going is to get into the mind of those people that have means and willing to move the market that's the only way otherwise you will never know for sure you will never guarantee yourself a winning trade and that's why a lot of people think that it's gambling and if it is gambling I'm trying to suggest you to become a professional Gambler who's professional Gambler professional Gambler is someone who has a complete control over the time money and energy they spend on gambling they are seem to be more skilled at gambling than other gamblers and are considered at low risk for the addiction so professional Gambler they're not addicts but casual gamblers they are addicted to winning they addicted to that dopamine hit of a winning trade and that's what messes them up because you cannot be seeking the dopamine heads because Market will not give you the setup all the time your your perfect setup it's not going to appear all the time that's why it's a perfect setup because it's a careful selection out of all the price action that's going on right now in front of you what is your setup do you see it you take it you don't see it you sit on your hand and you wait for that one thing that's what separates a professional Gambler and Casual Gambler that seeking dopamine heads so again it all comes back to setting rules and I'll give you a simple plan to follow it's it's not that hard but the hardest part is to follow it so the number one pick a Financial goal do you want to replace some bills or what whatever how much you need you need 2,000 a month 3,000 a month 4,000 a month how much you need once you realize how much you need so let's say it's $5,000 a month 5,000 a month it's uh $250 per day per trading day and there are 20 trading days in a month so we need to make $250 bucks every single day I don't know maybe you can set a a rule for yourself where you take three trades with five point each and it's going to be $300 on one NQ contract or maybe one trade with 15 points there is 250 bucks if you if your model allows you to do that and you can consistently do it in back testing in forward testing maybe you will be able to do it in live environment too number two pick a trading model what is going to be the model that you use to get to your goal number three back test that model obvious you need to know what you're doing executing that model right refine your executions number four exactly so you found good model now you need to practice practice those executions practice every single day the same thing that's how you get good that's how basketball players get good practice practice practice one kick over and over and over one shot over and over and over one setup over and over and over that's the only way guys once you back tested refined your executions you can try out the demo environment you can try out in demo either you're going to sign out for some prop firm it's still demo or you don't need to waste money at all just get profitable in demo first but the trick is is you need to stick to your rules and you need to execute the same thing over and over don't don't lie to yourself okay don't lie to yourself because that's cognitive dissonance and eventually your brain will stop taking you seriously so stop lying to yourself go into demo and if you are not successful go back to back testing and refining your executions and only after step number five when you're consistently profitable try to trade the same thing in a live environment and of course this is not a financial advice here I'm not going to tell you to go and trade live funds but a good bridge between demo and live is uh prop firm trading see if you can pass evaluation and fund your real account with the prop for money because I can guarantee you if you cannot pull out any money from the prop firms you will lose your ass trying to trade personal account the goal here out of all of this plan is to get consistently profitable and to prove you to yourself that you are consistently profitable you need to pass some evaluation on some prop firm account and also get a payout because that payout is going to fund your personal account and the more you trade the more you're going to refine your approach and uh eventually you can fund your personal account with the prop for money and trade the same thing but now on your personal account and you don't have to uh follow the rules of the prop firms so the number one thing I would say that people struggle with is executions so I can't really teach you executions I can show you how I'm approaching execution but until you try it yourself until you take action on your chart you will never understand how it feels you will never understand what kind of emotions are going through your head you you will never understand until you do it yourself and you start refining your your own execution so if you would have to focus on one thing focus on this process trade idea execution and Target trade idea will come from your system what is that one trade setup that you you take then execution execute that and Target and keep doing this over and over and over again and again a trade idea like I said trade idea execution 5 point target trade idea execution fivepoint Target setup execution Target setup execution Target over and over and over again and if you can perfect execution and your setup the size will not matter with perfect execution Size Doesn't Matter and of course with with more size you're going to have more emotion you know it's it's going to be harder for you to to get used to at first but that's why we scale uh slowly you know we do one in Q two in Q's three in Q's uh we can do four contracts then 510 and you keep increasing and with each increase you will feel it you will feel the the risk if you are really anxious when when you get in the live environment with real money start with micros try to do one micro and then slowly increase one micro and if you lose you you decrease your size until get get out of the draw down the whole point of this is to make it an instinct repetition will make it a muscle memory the more you repeat the more nuances you're going to discover the the more different nuances that you're going to see within your setup how it behaves uh in this environment how it behaves in that environment you will be able to pick up subconsciously on the price action this is how you train yourself to go from mechanical trading into more subjective and into intuitive trading and eventually because you're exposing yourself every day to the uh tape reading and back testing and watching your setup play out over and over again your subconscious will start picking out on things that you don't even realize right now we don't know what we don't know so do not be ignorant to the fact that there is so much depth to the price to the uh how price moves how manipulation looks how smart money operates there is so much depth you don't need to know all of it to be profitable you just need one kick one setup that's all you need your goal is not to solve the market but to consistently extract a portion with your Edge and your Edge is the setup that you EX execute over and over and over that you repeat over and over and over that's your setup that's your Edge and with repetition you will get more wisdom with that edge you will start sharpening your edge with repetition because your subconscious will tell you at times okay maybe maybe you shouldn't long on top of the range okay may maybe wait here this is not a good time too long because you know in the past every time you you long on top of the range doesn't end good so maybe you should stay out of this trade that's subjective trading and with intuitive it's it's like a muscle memory it's it's a beauty that's the ultimate goal of Mastery and that's why I say everything works but everything works within the proper context because um all of the patterns work but they not working against the trend you know like if if you're trying to short in a bullish Trend it's it's not going to end well you might catch a reversal or whatever but you know trend is your friend so if you can buy low and sell High that's a already winning thing that's why you can't buy and sell every breaker or zone or whatever you can't buy and sell every turtle soup you can't you need to have a proper context and what is the context really it's Market structure trade what you see and not what you think context is everything and Market structure is context really context is everything because if you are trying to trade against the wrong context and the wrong narrative that's what's going to make you lose and that's what's going to trip you up as a Trader and really what is context it's Market structure Market structure is context so if you're trying to Long the bearish structure you're going to lose you might catch a retracement or whatever but ultimately if you're trying to trade against structure and against the current narrative and context it's going to trip you up it's way easier to trade with the proper structure and the proper context what is price doing right now trade what you see and not what you think this is the biggest lesson that you can ever have in trading because technical analysis are nothing they won't make you profitable nothing will make you profitable but reading the market if you can properly get a read on what the current narrative right now is telling you what what is going on are we making double top are we sweeping Highs are we sweeping lows are we breaking them we closing about the highs and we making new highs what is the context are we on top of the Ring or we are in the bottom of the range or maybe we are chopping at equilibrium what is the context and what is the narrative so I'm going to wrap this up with stop down analysis on inq and uh how can we properly uh build a context and narrative for the price uh what do we see right now what is going on on NQ right now well we we made new highs right and you know we didn't make a new high on NQ contract I believe but um us 100 made a new high okay so we closed about this new high right so we know that this below us is a demand Zone this is where the price will retrace in case we going to retrace so we know that we are bullish right we broke out and we made a new all-time high we closed above it so all of this below us is internal range liquidity so shall the price start pulling down and you know closing below this candle this is an indication that we might dig into these areas may maybe bounce here or maybe go lower right and bounce inside of here and if you've been following me for a while you know I like to see un mitigated areas get traded to and get a nice reaction off of it you know this candle is unmitigated this whole zone is unmitigated right this whole thing is UN mitigated so shall we start building a trend back down I would be looking for these type of scenarios in here you know something like this and this is monthly chart and you can do this on any chart you want 1 minute 15 second 5 minute 15 minute 1 hour daily but this is on the monthly uh interesting areas now I like to see mitigation below 50% of the range so if we throw uh some fibs on this as you can see right below 50 this is a good candidate for a bounce in here on the monthly chart let's zoom in into the weekly let's see what's going on on weekly on weekly we still closed above right so it's all relative we have this Zone below us and we have this unmitigated zone so we could uh well have a bounce in here if we keep breaking down right so far this is just looks like a pullback here and there is imbalance and we could be bouncing off of this area this fractal we almost touched it here but I get a feeling that this is just a fake structure here on top and we eventually going to liquidate this low in here and we going to drop lower into uh this area into 15,000 and then we'll see maybe we can have a bounce of uh this last move down and we'll see what kind of structure it prints in here but I'm looking for the pullback you know I'm looking for the pullback especially after this reversal right you know ICT talks about the three candle one two three right and you know we had a sweep so this candle swept and then we had a final candle this is also a power of three accumulation manipulation distribution so this is a reversal this is a top in here on the weekly chart let's zoom in into daily let's zoom in into daily all right so see this is where we need to get into more like a narrative building and why we are bearish well we are bearish right now because we broke a swing see this swing on top is broken on The Daily and the last unmitigated candle we got in here and this is really a fractal here but also the stop candle is unmitigated so we could well come into all the way up here before reversing on the daily chart you can build the same narrative on one minute and it will play out way faster see like we on top of the range so you know one of the rules could be do not long the top of the range right this is a bearish impulse and we have a retracement to get another bearish impulse retracement impulse retracement impulse until we have a break of structure to the upside so the narrative currently is bearish and the narrative saying as that on the daily chart we are retracing right also on the daily chart we have this candlesticks structure so what is it telling us it tells us that this candle swept the previous candle closed inside it and we have the same reversal pattern as I was talking about here on top I was saying it on a weekly but this pattern in here also showing us a top three candle structure that's also a power of three as ICT says it I know most Concepts out there but it works right and this is all also accumulation manipulation and distribution in the third candle after we get this second candle right this is a sign that we might be going back for a retracement so now we could be looking for another top in here maybe higher so our daily narrative tells us that we are in a retracement and it's bullish Trend up so can we catch this retracement last week closed Friday was this candle so that's an indication that we might have the the third candle pump the third candle uh distribution so let's see the 4H hour and as you can see this one there is a gap in here so this is imbalance fvg whatever you want to call it but the presence of this Gap means that the top Zone on top of it wasn't mitigated so see just like I have it outline because on the higher time frame we have the that last candle is not mitigated and you see this bigger Gap in here so when when you zoom in to 4 hour you can refine it farther but that's the reaction area that I want to see price get to and then maybe in here we can see some distribution whatever it might be see this is uh looks like a fake structure right it's it was all inside this big candle here and then we broke down lower so all of this up here is unmitigated so now we know that we are in a bullish Trend and uh we can be bullish until we have a reversal so again the narrative the context of this market right now is we are in the retracement back to this area the bearish area right this is whole swing this whole swing is manipulation it's bearish and really if if you want we can throw some uh Dexter's um projection on this and and long behold we have a projection of minus 4 H interesting and where it lands right into the unmitigated Zone if we take a smaller manipulation just the top candle right let me put a magnet on if we take a smaller manipulation just the top candle it goes right into this Zone in here so we have all the reasons to believe that we going to continue lower and if there is no setup in here if there is no reversal in here if our rules don't line up with a reversal I don't know you might have different rules but my rule is I I want to see a reversal and if I don't see a reversal I just keep follow the price until I see my setup let's go 15 minutes just to see what's on the lower time frames and how could we um maybe catch this reversal reversal in here I mean it's a tough one but this one in here right this is an indication that we're going to reverse this big up this was during uh London this was on on Friday we had this big old pump and we retraced back right this this already breaking structure and we retraced back into this this box which is bullish box right this was unmitigated area as you can see see there's a gap the price just went through and we can uh also refine it farther down to this candle to this this scandle in here so the The Narrative is that we saw a big breakout and price came back all the way down accumulated in here there there is a turtle soup in here right and we came up and then you can start getting in on this lower swings in here because you're aware where we are so if you want to catch like longer moves if you're not a scalper and you want to catch those those um setups that I've been posting on Twitter you could be waiting for this to occur and then find bullishness find a flip on Lower time Fram so let's go to 1 minute there's 1 minute there's the turtle soup on 1 minute so what happened here we flipped look at that we flipped there is a break of structure we flipped again if you want a second confirmation we flipped again and we just keep flipping ever since bullish Trend look goes up the narrative told us that this is a reversal back on 15minute chart it told us that it's a reversal also it told us that it's a reversal on Friday if you look at the daily right look at that look at this Candlestick pattern it failed to close below this bearish candle and also swept this low in here so this bullish candle closed inside of this bearish candle so immediately the first Target is the high that failed to break a low and then we keep following this all the way up here and realize that the last unmitigated candle is all the way up here so the current Target for this trade would be in here and of course it it might reverse from this fractal in here but I believe that we we go on higher to to that and I mean I don't really trade that daily so this is just uh I keep in mind where we going because really the time frame doesn't matter like you can see where we going on one minute if you know how to read the structure and you aware what the range we in so back to 1 minute we could have had gotten a trade in here look can see that there is an area in here could have anticipated a bounce uh if we put our fibs on this it it didn't reach 50% almost reach 50% right so maybe you missed this but then you have the second swing in here and this one tapped 50% perfectly so maybe you could have look for the setup in here and I'm sure on on the lower time frame like on the 15 second this would be even easier to find double bottom where we were saying if you missed if you missed this entry there was another entry look the same thing it's it's literally the price is fractal right so look the same pattern the same thing is is that that happened here but on the lower time frame happening in here so we can get in on on this in here that 50% and you can see we we start breaking structure to the top side you know we have one box we have a second box and I like to see double uh break of structure so well this this whole candle is really um a structure so that's one break of structure there's a second break of structure and just this trade by itself you know you can uh this would be my entry I would be uh probably longing the this here and taking it at least to this this is one to three right away but then right this is a low low low entry so if you missed all of this you know you could have been entry in here you could you could have entry in here see this this line in here is 50% 50% and this would be a tough one to get in because there is no clear break of structure but once it starts going there you go it's it keeps going going and and usually all of these lows are going to stay intact or they're going to be swept and that's another opportunity to get in while they sweeping these lows there is see there is another setup in here there was a one box break there is another box break and a lot of times this is what happens where the second box the second breakout will be swept and this is where we see that uh Dave theave pattern that I picked up from DT FX where we have a tap and a double bottom continuation so I always keep in mind that this first low might be swept especially if that's there is no like structure especially there is no you know this is was a tap and a vshape recovery and here there is a structure you know there there is this candle broken TOS in and boomb and and it looks like a double bottom so that's the logic in here and uh this trade would be you know you can get on the 50% of this swing because it doesn't have to sweep you know but and you target this high in here that's again one to three easy one to three you can um Target this low as a entry because you anticipate to be swept but you know sometimes the price going to leave you be without you that's 1 to7 here you know and because we know where the higher time frame is and if you are a long-term like a swing Trader you could be just holding to daily levels just holding up until here while we get in at the low so this is what it looks like to build a narrative so that's how you could have catched uh this daily reversal I didn't catch it because I I don't really pay attention to the Daily but this is beautiful the same thing happens on one minute chart and uh I believe on nqh it's actually tapped this um on nqh this actually tapped this Zone and see this zone is unmitigated and that's a highly likelihood for the reversal and the reaction let me check on NQ let let me check so see there is a daily on NQ and if we put uh this Zone as you can see we tapped we swept this is a perfect scenario for the reversal you have a uh liquidity sweep you have a sweep of the previous candle and then you can start targeting these candles the high that failed to put in the low weak high and see each can CLE is a could be a Target itself as a high and that because if we reversed here we grabbed this liquidity and now we are Distributing it to these highs over here and eventually uh the the goal would be to get about here but because we have this swing in here this this breakdown in here and this is a mitigated candles in here I expect price to reverse we are on top of the range on the monthly so got to keep that in mind but the point is that this thing is fractal right that the price is fractal so the same thing you see happening on inq daily it's the same thing happens every day on 1 hour on 5 Second it's the same thing that's why I'm bringing your attention to this because this is a trading setup in itself we we run away from the zone we never mitigated that and we wait for this pattern we wait for the three candle formation which is also a AMD as ICT puts it accumulation manipulation distribution accumulation manipulation distribution the same thing happened here accumulation manipulation distribution so context that's what's important because there's people now that they wanted to short this you know they see this big drop coming in and and they want to keep shorting it but price gives us a clear indication of the reversal so this is why it's important to trade what you see not what you think because this only took 3 days and the drop was happening for the whole week and in only two days really we had an indication of reversal on a lower time frame we had a breakout and now we are bullish while everybody else wants to take it lower very very important to understand the narrative and context and the only way you're going to understand the narrative and context of what price is doing is only through back testing and tape reading and practicing your one setup the more you do it the more nuances you're going to pick up on the more things you're going to notice and the better Trader you're going to be the the higher win rate you're going to have and that's the other thing about win rate is that I rather have a high win rate than have a 30% win rate you know and it's super mechanical strategy and the only reason is the psychology and uh since this is a psychology video I want to mention this that it's way harder for you to control yourself and your emotions when you only have 30% win rate that means that you're going to lose seven out of 10 trades you could go on a seven trade losing streak and now you are hoping that this one trade is going to get you you know out of the losing Street to break even or whatever it's really going to be hard mentally to stick to that to stick to that strategy and to have confidence in the strategy you want to achieve confidence as fast as possible you want to practice as much as possible and you can't practice if if you have 30% win rate you going to doubt yourself it's going to be really really hard mentally for you to stick with that model and that system so I encourage you to to find your trading model but make sure it has a high win rate well the highest win rate is going to have narrative building and understanding where price is going next um and you know these mechanical systems that that you see they they might work but a lot of them just like trend lines they might work only 30% % of the time yes trend lines work but you need to understand when they don't work and usually when they don't work is when they are against the current narrative and context so that's uh very important to to understand what is your model what is the expected win rate on that model and really I suggest you to find something that works all the time has very very high win rate and then it's it's you that you need to execute your model perfectly it's it's you that's going to influence that win rate because if you can execute your model perfectly and you have very high win rate it's going to be a blast for you to trade I can promise you it's not going to be fun for you to trade if you're trying to to catch a trade that might work 30% of the time it's going to be very very hard mentally so to summarize this video number one focus on building a narrative understanding the context number two focus on one goal on one setup on one trade on one type of execution on one kick and practice that kick 10,000 times and while you practicing that kick refine it more and more and more until you happy with it which really you never get to that point if you're a perfectionist and uh trading and perfectionism it's kind of the opposite but you can perfect yourself you can perfect your actions you can be disciplined you can be disciplined enough to execute your model perfectly or at least near to perfect and that's what really matters and number three once you know your model you back tested it you executed it start small start with start with micros if you need to and slowly build up slowly build up your confidence slowly build up your size and the most most important thing is that you never deviate from your rules and you always stick to them all right guys so with that being said thanks for watching and I will see you in the next video